[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":39493},["ShallowReactive",2],{"post-\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti":3,"i-ci:tag":39485,"i-mingcute:time-line":39489,"i-boxicons:location":39491},{"post":4,"nextPost":1761,"prevPost":1770},{"id":5,"title":6,"body":7,"description":13,"draft":1756,"enableComment":1757,"extension":1758,"image":123,"important":1756,"location":1759,"meta":1760,"navigation":1757,"ogImage":1761,"path":1762,"seo":1763,"stem":1764,"summary":1765,"tags":1766,"time":1768,"__hash__":1769},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti.md","Markdown 并不适合科学写作",{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":1744},"minimark",[10,14,17,26,29,32,38,44,47,50,54,60,63,69,72,75,78,81,84,87,90,93,96,99,105,108,111,114,117,159,162,165,172,175,178,181,184,187,190,193,196,199,202,208,211,366,688,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,726,837,844,851,854,857,860,867,874,877,880,883,902,905,1020,1027,1030,1033,1143,1169,1175,1181,1190,1193,1199,1202,1209,1323,1430,1434,1437,1440,1447,1564,1567,1571,1574,1580,1583,1593,1596,1603,1606,1609,1612,1615,1618,1621,1628,1735,1740],[11,12,13],"p",{},"写博客了很长一段时间了，但是个人觉得，Markdown 并不适合科学写作。读研究生期间，搞搞科研，有时候会阶段性地总结一下自己的研究 idea，或者梳理自己的知识，就需要系统性地写作总结。这部分我经常写在自己的博客里，就比如之前所发表的博客内容。",[11,15,16],{},"我这个博客网站是基于 Markdown + Unified.js + Nuxt Content 工具链实现的，每篇博客源格式都是 markdown 写成，再编译成 HTML 发表在网页上。",[11,18,19,20,25],{},"但是，在写作过程中，我经常会有种非常别扭且痛苦的感觉。前几天写了一篇文章，",[21,22,24],"a",{"href":23},"\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0005-yin-guo-jie-gou-mo-xing-jian-lun","因果结构模型简论","，这是一篇偏学术和展开论述的文章。",[11,27,28],{},"但是把它们写成 Markdown 博客，却花了我几乎两周的时间去校对和验证。最后精力不支，只能交给 LLM 后仓促发表。类似的，再撰写这类科学写作的文章，Markdown 让我深深感受到了这种文档的不足和局限。",[11,30,31],{},"写作对工具不挑剔，但工具的选择会悄悄影响你写作的组织方式。用记事本写，你倾向于纯线性；用 Notion 写，你可能会不自觉地建数据库、打标签；用 Markdown 写，你会习惯用标题层级来切分内容。",[11,33,34],{},[35,36,37],"strong",{},"一般来说，写作分为几种类型：日常写作、科学写作、技术写作。",[11,39,40,41],{},"三者虽然都叫「写作」，但是背后所使用的行文组织、写作思路等完全不同。",[35,42,43],{},"使用的认知模型完全不同。",[11,45,46],{},"它们对「段落」「证据」「结构」「读者」的预设都不一样。Markdown 的流行，很大程度上是因为它恰好适配了技术写作和一部分日常写作，但科学写作的核心需求它确实覆盖得很差。",[11,48,49],{},"Markdown 与其说「不适合写科学内容」，不如说它的抽象层级主要是「轻量文档标记」，而科学写作本质上更接近「结构化知识建模」。",[51,52,53],"h2",{"id":53},"日常写作",[11,55,56,59],{},[35,57,58],{},"首先是日常写作。"," 日常写作在互联网上随处可见，比如我们写的沟通、记录、表达。比如邮件、笔记、社交媒体、日记等等，它的核心是「交流感受、讲述经验、维持关系」。读者一般是自己或熟人，共享大量语境。",[11,61,62],{},"日常写作是「线性的」。比如：",[64,65,66],"blockquote",{},[11,67,68],{},"今天去了一趟实验室，发现服务器又挂了。折腾了半天，最后发现是 CUDA 环境的问题。",[11,70,71],{},"这样的好处，就是随意、口语化、结构松散，容错率高，歧义靠语境补全。",[11,73,74],{},"它的基本结构就是：想法 → 句子 → 段落 → 文章。",[11,76,77],{},"Markdown 对这种东西非常舒服。标题、粗体、列表、引用，已经足够了。而且这个链条是单向、可增量的。写一段是一段，不必先有全局骨架。这些已经覆盖了日常写作 90% 的标记需求。日常写作本来也不需要那么精确的视觉层级。",[11,79,80],{},"更重要的是，Markdown 的纯文本性让它在任何设备、任何编辑器里都能打开和修改。手机备忘录、VS Code、Obsidian、Notion、Typora，甚至 GitHub 的 issue 框，都能写。这种低门槛 + 跨平台，正好匹配日常写作「随时随地、随手就写」的场景。",[11,82,83],{},"它允许模糊、跳跃、情绪化，结构常常是情绪曲线或联想链条。博客、散文、社交媒体都属于这一类。Markdown 在这里够用，因为它只需要轻量地标记标题、列表、强调、链接。",[11,85,86],{},"作者不需要预先设计结构，想到哪写到哪。读者也不指望从中提取精确知识，能跟上情绪和大致信息就行。逻辑跳了、指代不清、重复啰嗦，都不致命，语境会补全。改一句话不影响全局，不需要回头调整编号、引文、交叉引用。",[11,88,89],{},"所以，对于日常写作，工具要求实际上并不高，任意文本编辑器、笔记软件如 MS Word，Evernote，Notion 都可以轻松应对，甚至手机自带的笔记本 App，Windows 文本编辑器都能应对。",[11,91,92],{},"日常写作还有一个特点：结构可以后补。你先随手写一堆碎片，之后再整理成「标题 + 段落 + 列表」，完全来得及。因为日常写作不依赖精确的交叉引用和编号，结构调整不会引发连锁修改。",[11,94,95],{},"所以，日常写作是三种写作里对工具最宽容、对结构最随意、对修改最不敏感的一类。Markdown 在这里如鱼得水，不是因为它多强大，而是因为日常写作本来就不需要多强大。",[51,97,98],{"id":98},"技术写作",[11,100,101,104],{},[35,102,103],{},"其次是技术写作。"," 技术写作的核心是「让读者完成操作或理解系统」。回答「怎么做」。比如 API 文档、用户手册，核心是让读者准确、高效地完成操作，追求可用性和任务完成率。",[11,106,107],{},"它追求可检索、可复用、可版本控制、可多端发布。文档、API 说明、教程、README 是典型。大多数开源项目的文档、技术博客等等，都属于这种类型。",[11,109,110],{},"技术写作是「操作性的」。技术文档的写作内容，更像是目标、环境、安装、配置、运行、错误处理、结果一连串起来。",[11,112,113],{},"文章的每个部分都是任务导向，模块化。比如，读者可跳读。且每个部分都可以在自己的内部领域展开——这就是典型的树形文章组织。",[11,115,116],{},"因此 Markdown 的标题树非常自然，以一个开源项目的 Github Readme 文档的组织结构为例：",[118,119,124],"pre",{"className":120,"code":121,"language":122,"meta":123,"style":123},"language-markdown shiki shiki-themes github-dark","# Installation\n## Requirements\n## Install\n# Usage\n# Troubleshooting\n","markdown","",[125,126,127,135,141,147,153],"code",{"__ignoreMap":123},[128,129,132],"span",{"class":130,"line":131},"line",1,[128,133,134],{},"# Installation\n",[128,136,138],{"class":130,"line":137},2,[128,139,140],{},"## Requirements\n",[128,142,144],{"class":130,"line":143},3,[128,145,146],{},"## Install\n",[128,148,150],{"class":130,"line":149},4,[128,151,152],{},"# Usage\n",[128,154,156],{"class":130,"line":155},5,[128,157,158],{},"# Troubleshooting\n",[11,160,161],{},"例如，如果读者已经 install 了这个软件，就可以直接跳过 installation 和 requirements 这两章节，直接跳转到 Usage 章节。",[11,163,164],{},"Markdown 的核心模型是树状文档——标题下挂段落和列表，段落和列表之下再无更深的语义结构。就像这样：",[11,166,167],{},[168,169],"img",{"alt":170,"src":171},"Markdown 层次写作模型","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609222216870.png",[11,173,174],{},"Markdown 几乎是为这类写作量身定做的：纯文本、易 diff、易转 HTML、易嵌入代码块。技术写作的「正确性」往往由代码运行结果或操作是否成功来验证，不需要复杂的引注和排版。Markdown 的设计目标不是「表达知识结构」，而是「让纯文本容易读、容易写、容易转 HTML」。它的语法元素——标题、列表、强调、链接、代码块、引用——本质上都是视觉标记，不是语义对象。",[11,176,177],{},"所以 Markdown 甚至非常适合技术写作。例如 GitHub README、API 文档、开发文档，本质上就是让一个人沿着信息路径完成一个任务。",[51,179,180],{"id":180},"科学写作",[11,182,183],{},"但科学写作不是信息排列，而是在构造一个可以被检验的论证系统。核心是提出假设、展示证据、论证结论。",[11,185,186],{},"这一点在技术写作和科学写作里就完全不同了。技术写作的结构往往是预先设计的，科学写作的结构更是由论证逻辑和引用关系约束的。一旦结构变了，引文、图表编号、交叉引用都要跟着变。",[11,188,189],{},"以写一篇论文为例，真正的逻辑并不是「Introduction → Method → Experiment → Conclusion」这样的排版顺序，而更接近：先有一个现象，再追问为什么现有解释不足，进而提出新的问题表述，建立数学模型，推导出模型应当具有的可验证性质，设计方法去利用这个性质，用实验去验证这些性质是否真的存在，检验方法是否真正解决了问题，最后排除其他可能的解释。",[11,191,192],{},"这条链条可以进一步抽象为 Claim → Assumption → Model → Derivation → Prediction → Evidence → Conclusion，这已经不是普通意义上的「文档结构」，而更像一张证明图、因果图或知识图。",[11,194,195],{},"由此可以看到，科学写作其实存在两套结构。读者看到的是表层结构，也就是论文的 IMRaD 结构（引言 - 方法 - 结果 - 讨论），这一线性过程：Introduction、Related Work、Method、Experiments、Conclusion。",[11,197,198],{},"但真正决定论文质量的是深层结构——从 Research Question 出发得到 Claim，Claim 一边连接 Assumption，一边连接 Evidence，Assumption 导向 Model，Evidence 来自 Experiment 并与 Model 互相印证，Model 产生 Prediction，最终汇聚为 Conclusion。",[11,200,201],{},"一个好的论文段落内部也遵循类似的链条：Claim → Reason → Evidence → Interpretation → Connection to next claim。这种写作模型如下图所示",[11,203,204],{},[168,205],{"alt":206,"src":207},"科学写作的写作模型","https:\u002F\u002Fimage-assets.dreams.plus\u002F202609222126754.png",[11,209,210],{},"可以说，科学论文本质上非常接近一种有向图结构，这就产生了一个有意思的矛盾：Markdown 擅长表达「文档树」，而科学写作真正需要表达的是「论证图」。这条链条在认知科学和论证理论里也有对应。比如 Toulmin 的论证模型：Claim、Ground、Warrant、Backing、Qualifier、Rebuttal。",[11,212,213,214,365],{},"这也是为什么 ",[128,215,219,242],{"className":216,"translate":218},[217],"katex","no",[128,220,223],{"className":221},[222],"katex-mathml",[224,225,227],"math",{"xmlns":226},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[228,229,230,237],"semantics",{},[231,232,233],"mrow",{},[234,235,236],"mtext",{},"LaTeX",[238,239,241],"annotation",{"encoding":240},"application\u002Fx-tex","\\LaTeX",[128,243,247],{"className":244,"ariaHidden":246},[245],"katex-html","true",[128,248,251,256],{"className":249},[250],"base",[128,252],{"className":253,"style":255},[254],"strut","height:0.8988em;vertical-align:-0.2155em;",[128,257,261,266,271,303,307],{"className":258},[259,260],"mord","text",[128,262,265],{"className":263},[259,264],"textrm","L",[128,267],{"className":268,"style":270},[269],"mspace","margin-right:-0.36em;",[128,272,275],{"className":273},[274],"vlist-t",[128,276,279],{"className":277},[278],"vlist-r",[128,280,284],{"className":281,"style":283},[282],"vlist","height:0.6833em;",[128,285,287,292],{"style":286},"top:-2.905em;",[128,288],{"className":289,"style":291},[290],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[128,293,295],{"className":294},[259],[128,296,302],{"className":297},[259,264,298,299,300,301],"mtight","sizing","reset-size6","size3","A",[128,304],{"className":305,"style":306},[269],"margin-right:-0.15em;",[128,308,310,314,318,357,361],{"className":309},[259,260],[128,311,313],{"className":312},[259,264],"T",[128,315],{"className":316,"style":317},[269],"margin-right:-0.1667em;",[128,319,322,348],{"className":320},[274,321],"vlist-t2",[128,323,325,343],{"className":324},[278],[128,326,329],{"className":327,"style":328},[282],"height:0.4678em;",[128,330,332,336],{"style":331},"top:-2.7845em;",[128,333],{"className":334,"style":335},[290],"height:3em;",[128,337,339],{"className":338},[259],[128,340,342],{"className":341},[259,264],"E",[128,344,347],{"className":345},[346],"vlist-s","​",[128,349,351],{"className":350},[278],[128,352,355],{"className":353,"style":354},[282],"height:0.2155em;",[128,356],{},[128,358],{"className":359,"style":360},[269],"margin-right:-0.125em;",[128,362,364],{"className":363},[259,264],"X"," 在科学写作中显得格外强大，且在 互联网时代 Markdown 盛行的情况下仍然未被淘汰的原因。",[11,367,368,471,472,475,476,579,580,683,684,687],{},[128,369,371,384],{"className":370,"translate":218},[217],[128,372,374],{"className":373},[222],[224,375,376],{"xmlns":226},[228,377,378,382],{},[231,379,380],{},[234,381,236],{},[238,383,241],{"encoding":240},[128,385,387],{"className":386,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,388,390,393],{"className":389},[250],[128,391],{"className":392,"style":255},[254],[128,394,396,399,402,422,425],{"className":395},[259,260],[128,397,265],{"className":398},[259,264],[128,400],{"className":401,"style":270},[269],[128,403,405],{"className":404},[274],[128,406,408],{"className":407},[278],[128,409,411],{"className":410,"style":283},[282],[128,412,413,416],{"style":286},[128,414],{"className":415,"style":291},[290],[128,417,419],{"className":418},[259],[128,420,302],{"className":421},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,423],{"className":424,"style":306},[269],[128,426,428,431,434,465,468],{"className":427},[259,260],[128,429,313],{"className":430},[259,264],[128,432],{"className":433,"style":317},[269],[128,435,437,457],{"className":436},[274,321],[128,438,440,454],{"className":439},[278],[128,441,443],{"className":442,"style":328},[282],[128,444,445,448],{"style":331},[128,446],{"className":447,"style":335},[290],[128,449,451],{"className":450},[259],[128,452,342],{"className":453},[259,264],[128,455,347],{"className":456},[346],[128,458,460],{"className":459},[278],[128,461,463],{"className":462,"style":354},[282],[128,464],{},[128,466],{"className":467,"style":360},[269],[128,469,364],{"className":470},[259,264]," 表面上看起来比 Markdown 古老得多，但它解决的其实不只是排版问题，它隐含的是 ",[35,473,474],{},"科学对象是一等公民"," 这样一种思想。",[128,477,479,492],{"className":478,"translate":218},[217],[128,480,482],{"className":481},[222],[224,483,484],{"xmlns":226},[228,485,486,490],{},[231,487,488],{},[234,489,236],{},[238,491,241],{"encoding":240},[128,493,495],{"className":494,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,496,498,501],{"className":497},[250],[128,499],{"className":500,"style":255},[254],[128,502,504,507,510,530,533],{"className":503},[259,260],[128,505,265],{"className":506},[259,264],[128,508],{"className":509,"style":270},[269],[128,511,513],{"className":512},[274],[128,514,516],{"className":515},[278],[128,517,519],{"className":518,"style":283},[282],[128,520,521,524],{"style":286},[128,522],{"className":523,"style":291},[290],[128,525,527],{"className":526},[259],[128,528,302],{"className":529},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,531],{"className":532,"style":306},[269],[128,534,536,539,542,573,576],{"className":535},[259,260],[128,537,313],{"className":538},[259,264],[128,540],{"className":541,"style":317},[269],[128,543,545,565],{"className":544},[274,321],[128,546,548,562],{"className":547},[278],[128,549,551],{"className":550,"style":328},[282],[128,552,553,556],{"style":331},[128,554],{"className":555,"style":335},[290],[128,557,559],{"className":558},[259],[128,560,342],{"className":561},[259,264],[128,563,347],{"className":564},[346],[128,566,568],{"className":567},[278],[128,569,571],{"className":570,"style":354},[282],[128,572],{},[128,574],{"className":575,"style":360},[269],[128,577,364],{"className":578},[259,264]," 内置的 equation、theorem、lemma、proof、definition、figure、table、citation、cross-reference、appendix 等等组件，这些东西在 ",[128,581,583,596],{"className":582,"translate":218},[217],[128,584,586],{"className":585},[222],[224,587,588],{"xmlns":226},[228,589,590,594],{},[231,591,592],{},[234,593,236],{},[238,595,241],{"encoding":240},[128,597,599],{"className":598,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,600,602,605],{"className":601},[250],[128,603],{"className":604,"style":255},[254],[128,606,608,611,614,634,637],{"className":607},[259,260],[128,609,265],{"className":610},[259,264],[128,612],{"className":613,"style":270},[269],[128,615,617],{"className":616},[274],[128,618,620],{"className":619},[278],[128,621,623],{"className":622,"style":283},[282],[128,624,625,628],{"style":286},[128,626],{"className":627,"style":291},[290],[128,629,631],{"className":630},[259],[128,632,302],{"className":633},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,635],{"className":636,"style":306},[269],[128,638,640,643,646,677,680],{"className":639},[259,260],[128,641,313],{"className":642},[259,264],[128,644],{"className":645,"style":317},[269],[128,647,649,669],{"className":648},[274,321],[128,650,652,666],{"className":651},[278],[128,653,655],{"className":654,"style":328},[282],[128,656,657,660],{"style":331},[128,658],{"className":659,"style":335},[290],[128,661,663],{"className":662},[259],[128,664,342],{"className":665},[259,264],[128,667,347],{"className":668},[346],[128,670,672],{"className":671},[278],[128,673,675],{"className":674,"style":354},[282],[128,676],{},[128,678],{"className":679,"style":360},[269],[128,681,364],{"className":682},[259,264]," 里不是普通文本，而是具有实际意义的科学对象（Object）。在科学写作中，讲论证图组织起来的方式，就是 ",[125,685,686],{},"\\ref"," 各个科学对象。",[11,689,690,691,694,695,698],{},"写一个公式并加上 ",[125,692,693],{},"\\label{eq:loss}","，再用 ",[125,696,697],{},"\\ref{eq:loss}"," 去引用它，本质上不是在说「这里有一段数学」，而是在声明这是一个具有编号、引用关系和语义身份的 Equation。此外，在科学写作中，定理环境（theorem）也是很重要的，有时候我会在展开论述的时候，给出一些定义、推论、引理等等。在其他文章部分，会经常 refer 到这些。这样一来，文中就建立起了知识对象之间的引用关系，这已经比 Markdown 里单纯加粗一个 Loss function 高了一个抽象层次。",[11,700,701],{},"而仅 Markdown 则完全做不到这些。在进行科学写作的时候，只能手动去标注哪些是「定理」，用到了哪些部分，然后再手动写出引用位置，实在无法做到随心所欲去 refer 每一个对象。这些对象和关系，在 LaTeX 编译时会被自动编号、自动解析、自动维护。你增删一个公式，所有引用它的地方都会自动更新。这就是「图结构」在工具层面的体现。Markdown 没有这些语义对象。你只能手动写「如公式 (3) 所示」，然后手动维护编号。一旦增删，就是灾难。",[11,703,704],{},"更麻烦的是，科学写作并不是一日之功，很多时候要经过好几天甚至数月时间才能写成文章，在此期间，校对、增删文章时都会重构整个对象引用关系，如果论述过程简单还尚可，对系统性长文，手动维护各个对象之间的关系，简直是灾难级别的事故。",[11,706,707],{},"我个人也尝试去寻找相关工具链，很遗憾，我没有找到任何能适用于科学写作处理的 Markdown 文档工具链。",[11,709,710],{},"虽然社区有一些尝试，比如 Pandoc 的 Markdown 扩展、Quarto、MyST、Jupyter Book，它们确实支持公式、引用、交叉引用。但它们的抽象层级仍然是「文档 + 一些科学标记」，而不是「科学知识图」。它们能让你在 Markdown 里写公式和引用，但无法让你像 LaTeX 那样自然地声明和引用定理、引理、证明、假设、证据。",[11,712,713],{},"更重要的是，它们没有解决上面提到的核心问题：科学写作的深层结构是图，而不是树。工具如果只提供树形结构，写作者就只能手动在脑子里维护图，然后把它压扁成树。这个「压扁」过程，就是让我觉得别扭和痛苦的根源。",[51,715,716],{"id":716},"压扁的代价",[11,718,719],{},"上面说的「压扁」不是一个比喻，它是一件有具体成本的事。",[11,721,722,723],{},"写作并不是「先在脑子里想好一张完整的图，再把它抄成文字」。真实的过程往往相反：图和文本互相塑造。你在写第三段的时候，才想清楚第一段那个 Claim 到底需要什么假设；你在写实验的时候，才发现原来的模型少了一个条件。",[35,724,725],{},"图是在写作过程中长出来的，而 Markdown 要求你在图还没有定形的时候，就把它线性地固定下来。",[11,727,728,729,832,833,836],{},"举一个具体的例子。假设我在写一篇关于因果推断的文章，第三节给出了「后门准则」的定义，第五节有一个命题依赖这个定义，第七节的分析又依赖那个命题。现在我想在第三节中间再插入一个识别性假设。在 ",[128,730,732,745],{"className":731,"translate":218},[217],[128,733,735],{"className":734},[222],[224,736,737],{"xmlns":226},[228,738,739,743],{},[231,740,741],{},[234,742,236],{},[238,744,241],{"encoding":240},[128,746,748],{"className":747,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,749,751,754],{"className":750},[250],[128,752],{"className":753,"style":255},[254],[128,755,757,760,763,783,786],{"className":756},[259,260],[128,758,265],{"className":759},[259,264],[128,761],{"className":762,"style":270},[269],[128,764,766],{"className":765},[274],[128,767,769],{"className":768},[278],[128,770,772],{"className":771,"style":283},[282],[128,773,774,777],{"style":286},[128,775],{"className":776,"style":291},[290],[128,778,780],{"className":779},[259],[128,781,302],{"className":782},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,784],{"className":785,"style":306},[269],[128,787,789,792,795,826,829],{"className":788},[259,260],[128,790,313],{"className":791},[259,264],[128,793],{"className":794,"style":317},[269],[128,796,798,818],{"className":797},[274,321],[128,799,801,815],{"className":800},[278],[128,802,804],{"className":803,"style":328},[282],[128,805,806,809],{"style":331},[128,807],{"className":808,"style":335},[290],[128,810,812],{"className":811},[259],[128,813,342],{"className":814},[259,264],[128,816,347],{"className":817},[346],[128,819,821],{"className":820},[278],[128,822,824],{"className":823,"style":354},[282],[128,825],{},[128,827],{"className":828,"style":360},[269],[128,830,364],{"className":831},[259,264]," 里这是一个局部操作：加一个 ",[125,834,835],{},"\\label","，被影响的地方编译时会提醒我。在 Markdown 里这是一次全局手术：我得记住哪些地方引用了「上面那个定义」，哪些公式的编号要变，哪些「如公式 (3) 所示」要改成 (4)。而 Markdown 不会告诉我它们在哪里。",[11,838,839,840,843],{},"不过编号错乱其实还不是最贵的部分，因为编辑器至少能搜到。真正贵的是",[35,841,842],{},"关系的丢失","。在 Markdown 里，「这一段是为了支持那个 Claim」这个事实不存在于文件里，它只存在于我的脑子里。今天写的时候当然记得，三个月后回来改的时候就不记得了。",[11,845,846,847,850],{},"这带来一个更隐蔽的后果：",[35,848,849],{},"别人无法验证我的论证","。合作者和审稿人拿到的是一段线性文本，他们只能重新读一遍全文，然后在自己脑子里把这张图重建出来，再检查它成不成立。每个人都要重建一遍。引用是显式的，论证是隐式的。",[11,852,853],{},"所以那种「别扭」的感觉可以更精确地描述：写作时，我的大脑同时在维护两个表征——一张还在变的论证图，和一条正在往前走的文本流——并且要保证它们在每一步都一致。Markdown 为前者提供的支撑是零。它不是不好用，是它根本没打算管这件事。",[51,855,856],{"id":856},"读者也在走这张图",[11,858,859],{},"线性化的成本不只由写作者承担，读者也在付。",[11,861,862,863,866],{},"读一篇论文的真实动作从来不是从头读到尾。读到中间的 Claim，我要翻回前面看那个定义到底是什么；看到「实验表明」，我要跳到结果章节确认；想知道这个结论有多强，我要去附录看证明的边界条件。",[35,864,865],{},"阅读本身就是在图上做遍历","，而且是带随机跳转的遍历。",[11,868,869,870,873],{},"IMRaD 与其说是一种逻辑结构，不如说是",[35,871,872],{},"一种为印刷媒介做的妥协","。纸是顺序的，装订是顺序的，翻页是顺序的，所以我们把一张图压成一条线，然后指望读者自己再把它拆开、重新组装。",[11,875,876],{},"这里有一个有点讽刺的地方：网页其实是天然支持非线性阅读的。折叠、跳转、悬浮预览、双向链接，技术上全都存在。但我们依然在用线性的写作工具，生产线性的制品，再把它放到一个非线性的媒介上。最后得到的，是一篇被伪装成网页的 PDF。",[11,878,879],{},"所以「压扁」这件事，写的人付一次，读的人付一次，每个合作者再各付一次。它是一个被反复征收的成本。",[11,881,882],{},"有人会说，图结构的写作工具不是早就有了吗？Obsidian、Logseq、Roam Research 的双向链接，不就是图吗？",[11,884,885,886,889,890,893,894,897,898,901],{},"是图，但粒度不对。这些工具的节点是",[35,887,888],{},"笔记","，不是",[35,891,892],{},"命题","。",[125,895,896],{},"[[因果推断]]"," 这样一条链接只说了「这两篇相关」，没有说「这篇支持那篇」还是「这篇反驳那篇」。而当边没有类型的时候，一张论证图就退化成了一个共现网络。图上只剩下相关性，可科学写作里最要紧的东西恰恰是",[35,899,900],{},"边的类型","：支持、反驳、假设、推导、检验。",[11,903,904],{},"Zettelkasten 也是同样的情况。它的原意是让想法自由连接、自然涌现，服务于「我该想什么」，而不是「我这个论证成不成立」。卡片之间可以链接，但链接不带论证语义。",[11,906,907,908,911,912,1019],{},"另一个方向是 Pandoc、Quarto、MyST、Jupyter Book 这一类。它们的贡献是实打实的：让你能在 Markdown 里写公式、写 ",[125,909,910],{},"@fig:xxx"," 这样的交叉引用。但它们做的是",[35,913,914,915,1018],{},"把 ",[128,916,918,931],{"className":917,"translate":218},[217],[128,919,921],{"className":920},[222],[224,922,923],{"xmlns":226},[228,924,925,929],{},[231,926,927],{},[234,928,236],{},[238,930,241],{"encoding":240},[128,932,934],{"className":933,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,935,937,940],{"className":936},[250],[128,938],{"className":939,"style":255},[254],[128,941,943,946,949,969,972],{"className":942},[259,260],[128,944,265],{"className":945},[259,264],[128,947],{"className":948,"style":270},[269],[128,950,952],{"className":951},[274],[128,953,955],{"className":954},[278],[128,956,958],{"className":957,"style":283},[282],[128,959,960,963],{"style":286},[128,961],{"className":962,"style":291},[290],[128,964,966],{"className":965},[259],[128,967,302],{"className":968},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,970],{"className":971,"style":306},[269],[128,973,975,978,981,1012,1015],{"className":974},[259,260],[128,976,313],{"className":977},[259,264],[128,979],{"className":980,"style":317},[269],[128,982,984,1004],{"className":983},[274,321],[128,985,987,1001],{"className":986},[278],[128,988,990],{"className":989,"style":328},[282],[128,991,992,995],{"style":331},[128,993],{"className":994,"style":335},[290],[128,996,998],{"className":997},[259],[128,999,342],{"className":1000},[259,264],[128,1002,347],{"className":1003},[346],[128,1005,1007],{"className":1006},[278],[128,1008,1010],{"className":1009,"style":354},[282],[128,1011],{},[128,1013],{"className":1014,"style":360},[269],[128,1016,364],{"className":1017},[259,264]," 的对象搬进 Markdown 的语法","，并没有动 Markdown 的骨架。文档的骨架依然是一个标题树，对象只是挂在树上的装饰。至于「这个公式是从哪个假设推出来的」这类关系，它们依然没有地方可以放。",[11,1021,1022,1023,1026],{},"两个方向的工具缺的是同一样东西：",[35,1024,1025],{},"它们都没有把「对象」和「关系」变成编辑器里可以直接操作的对象，也没有让文本变成这张图的一个投影。"," 一个是把边的类型丢了，一个是把对象降格成了树的装饰。而科学写作要求这两件事同时成立。",[51,1028,1029],{"id":1029},"科学写作需要什么",[11,1031,1032],{},"如果要认真地解决这件事，工具大概需要具备以下几个性质。这是一张草图，不是一份产品方案。",[11,1034,1035,1038,1039,1142],{},[35,1036,1037],{},"第一，科学对象是一等公民。"," 这一点其实 ",[128,1040,1042,1055],{"className":1041,"translate":218},[217],[128,1043,1045],{"className":1044},[222],[224,1046,1047],{"xmlns":226},[228,1048,1049,1053],{},[231,1050,1051],{},[234,1052,236],{},[238,1054,241],{"encoding":240},[128,1056,1058],{"className":1057,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1059,1061,1064],{"className":1060},[250],[128,1062],{"className":1063,"style":255},[254],[128,1065,1067,1070,1073,1093,1096],{"className":1066},[259,260],[128,1068,265],{"className":1069},[259,264],[128,1071],{"className":1072,"style":270},[269],[128,1074,1076],{"className":1075},[274],[128,1077,1079],{"className":1078},[278],[128,1080,1082],{"className":1081,"style":283},[282],[128,1083,1084,1087],{"style":286},[128,1085],{"className":1086,"style":291},[290],[128,1088,1090],{"className":1089},[259],[128,1091,302],{"className":1092},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,1094],{"className":1095,"style":306},[269],[128,1097,1099,1102,1105,1136,1139],{"className":1098},[259,260],[128,1100,313],{"className":1101},[259,264],[128,1103],{"className":1104,"style":317},[269],[128,1106,1108,1128],{"className":1107},[274,321],[128,1109,1111,1125],{"className":1110},[278],[128,1112,1114],{"className":1113,"style":328},[282],[128,1115,1116,1119],{"style":331},[128,1117],{"className":1118,"style":335},[290],[128,1120,1122],{"className":1121},[259],[128,1123,342],{"className":1124},[259,264],[128,1126,347],{"className":1127},[346],[128,1129,1131],{"className":1130},[278],[128,1132,1134],{"className":1133,"style":354},[282],[128,1135],{},[128,1137],{"className":1138,"style":360},[269],[128,1140,364],{"className":1141},[259,264]," 已经做到了，但是其他的写作工具仍然做得不彻底。一个 Definition、一个 Assumption、一个 Claim、一条 Evidence、一个 Prediction，应该是编辑器里真实存在的对象：有稳定 ID，有类型，有内容，而不是一段被加粗的文字。类型本身携带信息——修改一个 Assumption 和修改一个 Definition，后果完全不同。",[11,1144,1145,1148,1149,1152,1153,1152,1156,1152,1159,1152,1162,1152,1165,1168],{},[35,1146,1147],{},"第二，边是有类型的。"," ",[125,1150,1151],{},"supports","、",[125,1154,1155],{},"contradicts",[125,1157,1158],{},"assumes",[125,1160,1161],{},"derives",[125,1163,1164],{},"tests",[125,1166,1167],{},"qualifies","。这是全文最核心的一条。只有节点类型和边的类型同时存在，才配叫论证图；只有节点，那是笔记库；只有无类型的边，那是共现网络。",[11,1170,1171,1174],{},[35,1172,1173],{},"第三，文本是图的一个投影。"," 意思是：论文不是唯一制品，而是某一张图在某一个视图下的渲染结果。同一张图应该能渲染成论文、组会 slides、审稿回复、以及一篇博客。现在的情况是反过来的——文字是本体的全部，图和 slides 都是它的下脚料。",[11,1176,1177,1180],{},[35,1178,1179],{},"第四，视图要可切换。"," 写作时用线性视图，检查覆盖面用大纲视图，审自己的逻辑用图视图。这三个视图必须操作同一份数据，否则又会退回到「手动同步」的老问题里。",[11,1182,1183,1186,1187,1189],{},[35,1184,1185],{},"第五，一致性检查应该上升到语义层。"," 编译器检查 ",[125,1188,686],{}," 指向的 label 是否存在，这是最浅的一层。再往上一层，工具应该能问：这个 Claim 有 Evidence 支撑吗？它的 Assumption 声明了吗？现有的 Evidence 支撑的是不是只是这个 Claim 的弱化版本？结论有没有超出实验能支持的范围？这些问题，本质上就是读者读论文时会问的那几个问题——工具应该先替他们问一遍。",[51,1191,1192],{"id":1192},"为什么这件事一直没做成",[11,1194,1195,1196,893],{},"既然需求这么明确，为什么没有这样的工具？因为",[35,1197,1198],{},"读一张图很便宜，写一张图很贵",[11,1200,1201],{},"一个理想的知识编辑系统，要求作者在想法还没成形的时候就声明「这个支持那个」「这个是从那个推出来的」。但正如前面说的，图是在写作过程中长出来的。要求作者提前声明关系，等于要求他在思考完成之前就交出思考的结论。这个交互本身就是反人性的。",[11,1203,1204,1205,1208],{},"这不是新问题。Bush 在上世纪四十年代设想的 Memex，Nelson 在六十年代提出的 Xanadu，都是「让人在非线性的知识网络里写作」的方案。它们没有普及，原因通常被归为工程难度和商业失败，但我更倾向于另一个解释：",[35,1206,1207],{},"人的思维展开是序列式的，图是事后归纳出来的。"," 我们不是先有图再写文章，而是先写文章才发现图长什么样。任何强迫作者「先建图再写作」的工具，都会在第一步被放弃。",[11,1210,1211,1212,1315,1316,1318,1319,1322],{},"这反过来解释了一件我一直觉得有意思的事：",[128,1213,1215,1228],{"className":1214,"translate":218},[217],[128,1216,1218],{"className":1217},[222],[224,1219,1220],{"xmlns":226},[228,1221,1222,1226],{},[231,1223,1224],{},[234,1225,236],{},[238,1227,241],{"encoding":240},[128,1229,1231],{"className":1230,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1232,1234,1237],{"className":1233},[250],[128,1235],{"className":1236,"style":255},[254],[128,1238,1240,1243,1246,1266,1269],{"className":1239},[259,260],[128,1241,265],{"className":1242},[259,264],[128,1244],{"className":1245,"style":270},[269],[128,1247,1249],{"className":1248},[274],[128,1250,1252],{"className":1251},[278],[128,1253,1255],{"className":1254,"style":283},[282],[128,1256,1257,1260],{"style":286},[128,1258],{"className":1259,"style":291},[290],[128,1261,1263],{"className":1262},[259],[128,1264,302],{"className":1265},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,1267],{"className":1268,"style":306},[269],[128,1270,1272,1275,1278,1309,1312],{"className":1271},[259,260],[128,1273,313],{"className":1274},[259,264],[128,1276],{"className":1277,"style":317},[269],[128,1279,1281,1301],{"className":1280},[274,321],[128,1282,1284,1298],{"className":1283},[278],[128,1285,1287],{"className":1286,"style":328},[282],[128,1288,1289,1292],{"style":331},[128,1290],{"className":1291,"style":335},[290],[128,1293,1295],{"className":1294},[259],[128,1296,342],{"className":1297},[259,264],[128,1299,347],{"className":1300},[346],[128,1302,1304],{"className":1303},[278],[128,1305,1307],{"className":1306,"style":354},[282],[128,1308],{},[128,1310],{"className":1311,"style":360},[269],[128,1313,364],{"className":1314},[259,264]," 为什么活到了今天。它并不要求你放弃线性写作，它只要求你在必要的地方声明对象。你可以照常从头写到尾，只在需要的时候加一个 ",[125,1317,835],{},"。它是一个",[35,1320,1321],{},"树骨架 + 少量图边","的混合体。这个折中在工程上极其成功——它把「线性写作」和「图结构」之间的冲突压到了大多数人都能接受的水平。",[11,1324,1325,1326,1429],{},"所以 ",[128,1327,1329,1342],{"className":1328,"translate":218},[217],[128,1330,1332],{"className":1331},[222],[224,1333,1334],{"xmlns":226},[228,1335,1336,1340],{},[231,1337,1338],{},[234,1339,236],{},[238,1341,241],{"encoding":240},[128,1343,1345],{"className":1344,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1346,1348,1351],{"className":1347},[250],[128,1349],{"className":1350,"style":255},[254],[128,1352,1354,1357,1360,1380,1383],{"className":1353},[259,260],[128,1355,265],{"className":1356},[259,264],[128,1358],{"className":1359,"style":270},[269],[128,1361,1363],{"className":1362},[274],[128,1364,1366],{"className":1365},[278],[128,1367,1369],{"className":1368,"style":283},[282],[128,1370,1371,1374],{"style":286},[128,1372],{"className":1373,"style":291},[290],[128,1375,1377],{"className":1376},[259],[128,1378,302],{"className":1379},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,1381],{"className":1382,"style":306},[269],[128,1384,1386,1389,1392,1423,1426],{"className":1385},[259,260],[128,1387,313],{"className":1388},[259,264],[128,1390],{"className":1391,"style":317},[269],[128,1393,1395,1415],{"className":1394},[274,321],[128,1396,1398,1412],{"className":1397},[278],[128,1399,1401],{"className":1400,"style":328},[282],[128,1402,1403,1406],{"style":331},[128,1404],{"className":1405,"style":335},[290],[128,1407,1409],{"className":1408},[259],[128,1410,342],{"className":1411},[259,264],[128,1413,347],{"className":1414},[346],[128,1416,1418],{"className":1417},[278],[128,1419,1421],{"className":1420,"style":354},[282],[128,1422],{},[128,1424],{"className":1425,"style":360},[269],[128,1427,364],{"className":1428},[259,264]," 的地位并不只是历史惯性。它在科学写作里没有被淘汰，是因为它是目前唯一一个既把对象和引用做成了语言原语、又不强迫作者放弃线性写作的系统。它的不足也在这里：图边只有引用这一种类型，而且维护成本随文章长度急剧上升——这正是文章开头我花两周校对的原因。",[51,1431,1433],{"id":1432},"在工具出现之前我现在怎么工作","在工具出现之前，我现在怎么工作",[11,1435,1436],{},"没有现成工具，只能用流程凑。我目前的办法是把「图」和「文」分成两层，中间只做一次机械转换。",[11,1438,1439],{},"草图层不管顺序，只管对象和关系。给每个对象一个短 ID：",[118,1441,1445],{"className":1442,"code":1444,"language":260,"meta":123},[1443],"language-text","C1   后门准则可以替代 do-演算完成识别\nA1   因果充分性假设（不存在未观测混杂）\nA2   可交换性\nM1   SCM 中图结构与分布的对应关系\nD1   由 M1 + A1 推出 C1 的充分性方向\nE1   洒水器模型上的模拟实验\nE2   真实数据集上的估计\n\nC1 \u003C- supported by D1, E1\nC1 \u003C- assumes A1, A2\nC1 \u003C- contradicts 朴素相关分析\n",[125,1446,1444],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,1448,1449,1450,1553,1554,1556,1557,1559,1560,1563],{},"然后在成文层，把这些 ID 落成 ",[128,1451,1453,1466],{"className":1452,"translate":218},[217],[128,1454,1456],{"className":1455},[222],[224,1457,1458],{"xmlns":226},[228,1459,1460,1464],{},[231,1461,1462],{},[234,1463,236],{},[238,1465,241],{"encoding":240},[128,1467,1469],{"className":1468,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1470,1472,1475],{"className":1471},[250],[128,1473],{"className":1474,"style":255},[254],[128,1476,1478,1481,1484,1504,1507],{"className":1477},[259,260],[128,1479,265],{"className":1480},[259,264],[128,1482],{"className":1483,"style":270},[269],[128,1485,1487],{"className":1486},[274],[128,1488,1490],{"className":1489},[278],[128,1491,1493],{"className":1492,"style":283},[282],[128,1494,1495,1498],{"style":286},[128,1496],{"className":1497,"style":291},[290],[128,1499,1501],{"className":1500},[259],[128,1502,302],{"className":1503},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,1505],{"className":1506,"style":306},[269],[128,1508,1510,1513,1516,1547,1550],{"className":1509},[259,260],[128,1511,313],{"className":1512},[259,264],[128,1514],{"className":1515,"style":317},[269],[128,1517,1519,1539],{"className":1518},[274,321],[128,1520,1522,1536],{"className":1521},[278],[128,1523,1525],{"className":1524,"style":328},[282],[128,1526,1527,1530],{"style":331},[128,1528],{"className":1529,"style":335},[290],[128,1531,1533],{"className":1532},[259],[128,1534,342],{"className":1535},[259,264],[128,1537,347],{"className":1538},[346],[128,1540,1542],{"className":1541},[278],[128,1543,1545],{"className":1544,"style":354},[282],[128,1546],{},[128,1548],{"className":1549,"style":360},[269],[128,1551,364],{"className":1552},[259,264]," 的 ",[125,1555,835],{}," 和 ",[125,1558,686],{},"。这样做的好处是：",[35,1561,1562],{},"压扁只发生在最后一步，而且是可逆的","——草图层始终在，任何时候都能回到图上检查。改动时先动草图层，再重新生成文本层的引用，而不是反过来。",[11,1565,1566],{},"诚实地说，这只是把痛苦从脑子里挪到了纸上，并没有消除手动维护。但它至少让「图」变成了一个可以被检查的实体，而不是一个只存在于我记忆里的东西。而且它带来一个意外的收益：这些 ID 本身，恰好可以当作和 LLM 交流的接口。",[51,1568,1570],{"id":1569},"当-llm-进入这张图","当 LLM 进入这张图",[11,1572,1573],{},"回到文章开头那个略显狼狈的结尾：那篇文章我写了两周，最后精力不支，交给了 LLM 仓促发表。",[11,1575,1576,1577],{},"当时我把它当成一次失败。但现在回头看，它其实指出了一个更重要的变化：",[35,1578,1579],{},"LLM 是历史上第一个有可能承担「图维护」这件事的东西。",[11,1581,1582],{},"前面说「写图很贵」，贵在哪里？贵在三件事：声明关系、保持一致、以及结构变动后重新检查下游。这三件事恰好都是 LLM 擅长的。它能读完一段文本后抽出隐含的 Claim 和 Evidence，能在插入新假设之后重新检查所有依赖它的结论，能在你改动一个定义时把下游的引用全部找出来。",[11,1584,1585,1586,1589,1590,893],{},"但这里有一个前提，而且是致命的前提：",[35,1587,1588],{},"LLM 在显式的图上工作，远好于在隐式的图上工作。"," 如果关系从来不曾落在文件里，LLM 也只能像我一样去猜，而且会猜得同样不可靠。所以「把图显式化」这件事的性质变了——它不再纯粹是作者的额外负担，而是让机器能够介入的前提。也许真正可行的分工不是「作者建图、作者维护图」，而是",[35,1591,1592],{},"作者建图、机器维护图",[11,1594,1595],{},"不过有一个反向的危险，值得单独说。LLM 天然擅长生成流畅的线性文本，它会不由自主地把你论证里的裂缝糊上。一段话读起来通顺，和这个论证成不成立，是两件完全不同的事，而 LLM 恰好最擅长制造前者。我用 LLM 校对那篇两周的文章时就吃过这个亏：它把很多衔接不畅的地方改顺了，但那些地方原本的不畅，其实是论证真的没接上。",[11,1597,1598,1599,1602],{},"所以 LLM 在这件事上的正确用法，是当图的审查者，而不是文本的润色者。",[35,1600,1601],{},"让它问我「这个 Claim 的证据在哪里」，而不是问它「这段话怎么写得更好」。"," 前者会暴露问题，后者只会掩盖问题。",[51,1604,1605],{"id":1605},"结语",[11,1607,1608],{},"如果把三种写作对应到三种数据结构，会看得更清楚：日常写作对应的是序列（Sequence），句子接句子，核心是语言流。技术写作对应的是树（Tree），文档下分节，节下分概念与流程，核心是信息层级，Markdown 对此非常合适。",[11,1610,1611],{},"而科学写作对应的则是图（Graph），一个 Claim 由 Evidence 支持、由 Assumption 建立基础、由 Model 推导而来、由 Experiment 加以检验，核心是命题之间的逻辑关系。到了这一层，Markdown 就开始显得太扁平了。",[11,1613,1614],{},"无论是读者还是写作者，实际上一直在追问：这个 Claim 从哪里来的？这个 Assumption 合理吗？这个公式是否真的从前面的定义推出？这个实验是否真的能够验证这个 Claim？这个结果还有没有其他解释？结论有没有超出实验能够支持的范围？所以科学写作，本质上是在维护一张 Claim、Evidence、Reasoning 三者互相印证的关系网络。",[11,1616,1617],{},"这也解释了为什么科学写作写久之后，我会逐渐不满足于 Markdown。",[11,1619,1620],{},"不是因为它不够漂亮，因为真正需要的已经不再是一个好用的文本编辑器，而是一个能够表达定义、命题、假设、推导、证据、引用和论证关系的科学知识编辑系统。",[11,1622,1623,1624,1627],{},"这三种数据结构也解释了前面所有具体的痛苦。序列容错，所以日常写作拿记事本就能对付；树可以局部修改，所以技术文档在 Markdown 里如鱼得水；而",[35,1625,1626],{},"图一旦被压成线，每一次改动都要付出全局的代价","——那两周的校对时间，大部分就是花在这里的。",[11,1629,1630,1631,1734],{},"所以在那个系统出现之前，我大概还会继续用 Markdown 写博客、用 ",[128,1632,1634,1647],{"className":1633,"translate":218},[217],[128,1635,1637],{"className":1636},[222],[224,1638,1639],{"xmlns":226},[228,1640,1641,1645],{},[231,1642,1643],{},[234,1644,236],{},[238,1646,241],{"encoding":240},[128,1648,1650],{"className":1649,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1651,1653,1656],{"className":1652},[250],[128,1654],{"className":1655,"style":255},[254],[128,1657,1659,1662,1665,1685,1688],{"className":1658},[259,260],[128,1660,265],{"className":1661},[259,264],[128,1663],{"className":1664,"style":270},[269],[128,1666,1668],{"className":1667},[274],[128,1669,1671],{"className":1670},[278],[128,1672,1674],{"className":1673,"style":283},[282],[128,1675,1676,1679],{"style":286},[128,1677],{"className":1678,"style":291},[290],[128,1680,1682],{"className":1681},[259],[128,1683,302],{"className":1684},[259,264,298,299,300,301],[128,1686],{"className":1687,"style":306},[269],[128,1689,1691,1694,1697,1728,1731],{"className":1690},[259,260],[128,1692,313],{"className":1693},[259,264],[128,1695],{"className":1696,"style":317},[269],[128,1698,1700,1720],{"className":1699},[274,321],[128,1701,1703,1717],{"className":1702},[278],[128,1704,1706],{"className":1705,"style":328},[282],[128,1707,1708,1711],{"style":331},[128,1709],{"className":1710,"style":335},[290],[128,1712,1714],{"className":1713},[259],[128,1715,342],{"className":1716},[259,264],[128,1718,347],{"className":1719},[346],[128,1721,1723],{"className":1722},[278],[128,1724,1726],{"className":1725,"style":354},[282],[128,1727],{},[128,1729],{"className":1730,"style":360},[269],[128,1732,364],{"className":1733},[259,264]," 写论文，并且在两者之间手动维护一张只有我自己看得见的图。这篇文章本身也是用 Markdown 写的——这大概是它最后一个恰当的讽刺。",[64,1736,1737],{},[11,1738,1739],{},"Markdown 的问题不是它表达不了科学内容，而是它把科学内容中最重要的那部分——对象之间的论证关系——降格成了文本。",[1741,1742,1743],"style",{},"html .default .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}html .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}",{"title":123,"searchDepth":137,"depth":137,"links":1745},[1746,1747,1748,1749,1750,1751,1752,1753,1754,1755],{"id":53,"depth":137,"text":53},{"id":98,"depth":137,"text":98},{"id":180,"depth":137,"text":180},{"id":716,"depth":137,"text":716},{"id":856,"depth":137,"text":856},{"id":1029,"depth":137,"text":1029},{"id":1192,"depth":137,"text":1192},{"id":1432,"depth":137,"text":1433},{"id":1569,"depth":137,"text":1570},{"id":1605,"depth":137,"text":1605},false,true,"md","甘肃兰州",{},null,"\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti",{"title":6,"description":13},"blog\u002F2026\u002F0006-markdown-ke-xue-xie-zuo-tong-dian-wen-ti","写作的格式工具会悄悄影响到你的行文组织方式。Markdown 与其说「不适合写科学内容」，不如说它的抽象层级主要是「轻量文档标记」，而科学写作本质上更接近「结构化知识建模」。",[1767],"thoughts","2026-09-22T22:53:33+08:00","5_F5AFfH5x0FqoxmQpb4yz2mbUriKEidgISRIkmGWX8",{"id":1771,"title":24,"body":1772,"description":39476,"draft":1756,"enableComment":1757,"extension":1758,"image":123,"important":1756,"location":1759,"meta":39477,"navigation":1757,"ogImage":1761,"path":23,"seo":39478,"stem":39479,"summary":39480,"tags":39481,"time":39483,"__hash__":39484},"blog\u002Fblog\u002F2026\u002F0005-yin-guo-jie-gou-mo-xing-jian-lun.md",{"type":8,"value":1773,"toc":39448},[1774,2241,2248,3027,3034,3037,3042,3976,4883,4949,5470,5477,5910,5914,6045,6051,6129,6383,6563,6571,6581,6660,6872,7029,7107,7421,7966,8060,8064,8067,8720,9101,9596,9635,9639,9642,9935,9941,10004,10010,10480,10490,10493,10872,10879,11152,11155,11162,11166,12776,13281,13667,13671,14111,14670,15341,15348,15352,15407,17640,17792,17795,17843,17847,18312,18890,18894,19783,20176,20516,21261,23535,23714,23718,24231,24732,25959,26906,27061,27442,27448,27709,27712,27716,27792,28063,28069,28429,29513,29617,29794,30117,30123,30473,31008,31424,31428,31586,32008,33624,33893,33896,34355,34473,34484,35202,36224,36227,36263,36266,36269,36273,36280,36853,36988,37375,37676,38020,38024,38027,38105,38108,38194,38197,38201,38204,38504,38507,38565,38569,38572,38709,38716,38720,38723,39112,39118,39121,39124,39435,39438,39445],[11,1775,1776,1777,1829,1830,1895,1896,1965,1966,2046,2047,2050,2051,2107,2108,2173,2174,2240],{},"为什么概率论不足以回答因果问题？设 ",[128,1778,1780,1802],{"className":1779,"translate":218},[217],[128,1781,1783],{"className":1782},[222],[224,1784,1785],{"xmlns":226},[228,1786,1787,1799],{},[231,1788,1789,1792,1796],{},[1790,1791,364],"mi",{},[1793,1794,1795],"mo",{"separator":246},",",[1790,1797,1798],{},"Y",[238,1800,1801],{"encoding":240},"X, Y",[128,1803,1805],{"className":1804,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1806,1808,1812,1817,1821,1825],{"className":1807},[250],[128,1809],{"className":1810,"style":1811},[254],"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[128,1813,364],{"className":1814,"style":1816},[259,1815],"mathnormal","margin-right:0.0785em;",[128,1818,1795],{"className":1819},[1820],"mpunct",[128,1822],{"className":1823,"style":1824},[269],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[128,1826,1798],{"className":1827,"style":1828},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.2222em;"," 为两个随机变量，概率论所能给出的全部工具是联合分布 ",[128,1831,1833,1861],{"className":1832,"translate":218},[217],[128,1834,1836],{"className":1835},[222],[224,1837,1838],{"xmlns":226},[228,1839,1840,1858],{},[231,1841,1842,1845,1849,1851,1853,1855],{},[1790,1843,1844],{},"P",[1793,1846,1848],{"stretchy":1847},"false","(",[1790,1850,364],{},[1793,1852,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,1854,1798],{},[1793,1856,1857],{"stretchy":1847},")",[238,1859,1860],{"encoding":240},"P(X,Y)",[128,1862,1864],{"className":1863,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1865,1867,1871,1875,1879,1882,1885,1888,1891],{"className":1866},[250],[128,1868],{"className":1869,"style":1870},[254],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[128,1872,1844],{"className":1873,"style":1874},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[128,1876,1848],{"className":1877},[1878],"mopen",[128,1880,364],{"className":1881,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,1883,1795],{"className":1884},[1820],[128,1886],{"className":1887,"style":1824},[269],[128,1889,1798],{"className":1890,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,1892,1857],{"className":1893},[1894],"mclose","、条件分布 ",[128,1897,1899,1924],{"className":1898,"translate":218},[217],[128,1900,1902],{"className":1901},[222],[224,1903,1904],{"xmlns":226},[228,1905,1906,1921],{},[231,1907,1908,1910,1912,1914,1917,1919],{},[1790,1909,1844],{},[1793,1911,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,1913,1798],{},[1793,1915,1916],{},"∣",[1790,1918,364],{},[1793,1920,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,1922,1923],{"encoding":240},"P(Y\\mid X)",[128,1925,1927,1953],{"className":1926,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,1928,1930,1933,1936,1939,1942,1946,1950],{"className":1929},[250],[128,1931],{"className":1932,"style":1870},[254],[128,1934,1844],{"className":1935,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,1937,1848],{"className":1938},[1878],[128,1940,1798],{"className":1941,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,1943],{"className":1944,"style":1945},[269],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[128,1947,1916],{"className":1948},[1949],"mrel",[128,1951],{"className":1952,"style":1945},[269],[128,1954,1956,1959,1962],{"className":1955},[250],[128,1957],{"className":1958,"style":1870},[254],[128,1960,364],{"className":1961,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,1963,1857],{"className":1964},[1894],"，以及由此导出的独立性关系 ",[128,1967,1969,1997],{"className":1968,"translate":218},[217],[128,1970,1972],{"className":1971},[222],[224,1973,1974],{"xmlns":226},[228,1975,1976,1994],{},[231,1977,1978,1980,1983,1986,1988,1990,1992],{},[1790,1979,364],{},[1793,1981,1982],{},"⊥",[234,1984,1985],{}," ⁣",[234,1987,1985],{},[234,1989,1985],{},[1793,1991,1982],{},[1790,1993,1798],{},[238,1995,1996],{"encoding":240},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y",[128,1998,2000,2025,2037],{"className":1999,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2001,2003,2007,2010,2013,2016,2019,2022],{"className":2002},[250],[128,2004],{"className":2005,"style":2006},[254],"height:0.6944em;",[128,2008,364],{"className":2009,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2011],{"className":2012,"style":1945},[269],[128,2014,1982],{"className":2015},[1949],[128,2017],{"className":2018,"style":317},[269],[128,2020],{"className":2021,"style":317},[269],[128,2023],{"className":2024,"style":317},[269],[128,2026,2028,2031,2034],{"className":2027},[250],[128,2029],{"className":2030,"style":2006},[254],[128,2032,1982],{"className":2033},[1949],[128,2035],{"className":2036,"style":1945},[269],[128,2038,2040,2043],{"className":2039},[250],[128,2041],{"className":2042,"style":283},[254],[128,2044,1798],{"className":2045,"style":1828},[259,1815],"。这套语言在数学上是自洽的，但存在一个根本性的表达力缺陷：",[35,2048,2049],{},"概率分布对「对称性」是不敏感的","。若已知 ",[128,2052,2054,2077],{"className":2053,"translate":218},[217],[128,2055,2057],{"className":2056},[222],[224,2058,2059],{"xmlns":226},[228,2060,2061,2075],{},[231,2062,2063,2065,2067,2069,2071,2073],{},[1790,2064,1844],{},[1793,2066,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2068,364],{},[1793,2070,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,2072,1798],{},[1793,2074,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2076,1860],{"encoding":240},[128,2078,2080],{"className":2079,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2081,2083,2086,2089,2092,2095,2098,2101,2104],{"className":2082},[250],[128,2084],{"className":2085,"style":1870},[254],[128,2087,1844],{"className":2088,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2090,1848],{"className":2091},[1878],[128,2093,364],{"className":2094,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2096,1795],{"className":2097},[1820],[128,2099],{"className":2100,"style":1824},[269],[128,2102,1798],{"className":2103,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,2105,1857],{"className":2106},[1894],"，则 ",[128,2109,2111,2134],{"className":2110,"translate":218},[217],[128,2112,2114],{"className":2113},[222],[224,2115,2116],{"xmlns":226},[228,2117,2118,2132],{},[231,2119,2120,2122,2124,2126,2128,2130],{},[1790,2121,1844],{},[1793,2123,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2125,1798],{},[1793,2127,1916],{},[1790,2129,364],{},[1793,2131,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2133,1923],{"encoding":240},[128,2135,2137,2161],{"className":2136,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2138,2140,2143,2146,2149,2152,2155,2158],{"className":2139},[250],[128,2141],{"className":2142,"style":1870},[254],[128,2144,1844],{"className":2145,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2147,1848],{"className":2148},[1878],[128,2150,1798],{"className":2151,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,2153],{"className":2154,"style":1945},[269],[128,2156,1916],{"className":2157},[1949],[128,2159],{"className":2160,"style":1945},[269],[128,2162,2164,2167,2170],{"className":2163},[250],[128,2165],{"className":2166,"style":1870},[254],[128,2168,364],{"className":2169,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2171,1857],{"className":2172},[1894]," 与 ",[128,2175,2177,2201],{"className":2176,"translate":218},[217],[128,2178,2180],{"className":2179},[222],[224,2181,2182],{"xmlns":226},[228,2183,2184,2198],{},[231,2185,2186,2188,2190,2192,2194,2196],{},[1790,2187,1844],{},[1793,2189,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2191,364],{},[1793,2193,1916],{},[1790,2195,1798],{},[1793,2197,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2199,2200],{"encoding":240},"P(X\\mid Y)",[128,2202,2204,2228],{"className":2203,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2205,2207,2210,2213,2216,2219,2222,2225],{"className":2206},[250],[128,2208],{"className":2209,"style":1870},[254],[128,2211,1844],{"className":2212,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2214,1848],{"className":2215},[1878],[128,2217,364],{"className":2218,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2220],{"className":2221,"style":1945},[269],[128,2223,1916],{"className":2224},[1949],[128,2226],{"className":2227,"style":1945},[269],[128,2229,2231,2234,2237],{"className":2230},[250],[128,2232],{"className":2233,"style":1870},[254],[128,2235,1798],{"className":2236,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,2238,1857],{"className":2239},[1894]," 皆可通过贝叶斯定理相互推出，二者在信息量上完全等价，谁也不比谁更「根本」。然而在实际世界中，「气压下降导致下雨」与「下雨导致气压下降」显然不是对称的两种表述——只有前者是对的。这种方向性、非对称性的知识，是概率分布本身无法编码的，必须由额外的结构承载。",[11,2242,2243,2244,2247],{},"Judea Pearl 将因果知识的层级组织为三层，通常称为",[35,2245,2246],{},"因果推断阶梯（Ladder of Causation）","：",[2249,2250,2251,2411,2583],"ul",{},[2252,2253,2254,2257,2258,2327,2328,2381,2382,2410],"li",{},[35,2255,2256],{},"第一层（关联，Association）","：回答形如 ",[128,2259,2261,2287],{"className":2260,"translate":218},[217],[128,2262,2264],{"className":2263},[222],[224,2265,2266],{"xmlns":226},[228,2267,2268,2284],{},[231,2269,2270,2272,2274,2277,2279,2282],{},[1790,2271,1844],{},[1793,2273,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2275,2276],{},"y",[1793,2278,1916],{},[1790,2280,2281],{},"x",[1793,2283,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2285,2286],{"encoding":240},"P(y\\mid x)",[128,2288,2290,2315],{"className":2289,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2291,2293,2296,2299,2302,2306,2309,2312],{"className":2292},[250],[128,2294],{"className":2295,"style":1870},[254],[128,2297,1844],{"className":2298,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2300,1848],{"className":2301},[1878],[128,2303,2276],{"className":2304,"style":2305},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[128,2307],{"className":2308,"style":1945},[269],[128,2310,1916],{"className":2311},[1949],[128,2313],{"className":2314,"style":1945},[269],[128,2316,2318,2321,2324],{"className":2317},[250],[128,2319],{"className":2320,"style":1870},[254],[128,2322,2281],{"className":2323},[259,1815],[128,2325,1857],{"className":2326},[1894]," 的问题，即「观察到 ",[128,2329,2331,2350],{"className":2330,"translate":218},[217],[128,2332,2334],{"className":2333},[222],[224,2335,2336],{"xmlns":226},[228,2337,2338,2347],{},[231,2339,2340,2342,2345],{},[1790,2341,364],{},[1793,2343,2344],{},"=",[1790,2346,2281],{},[238,2348,2349],{"encoding":240},"X=x",[128,2351,2353,2371],{"className":2352,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2354,2356,2359,2362,2365,2368],{"className":2355},[250],[128,2357],{"className":2358,"style":283},[254],[128,2360,364],{"className":2361,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2363],{"className":2364,"style":1945},[269],[128,2366,2344],{"className":2367},[1949],[128,2369],{"className":2370,"style":1945},[269],[128,2372,2374,2378],{"className":2373},[250],[128,2375],{"className":2376,"style":2377},[254],"height:0.4306em;",[128,2379,2281],{"className":2380},[259,1815]," 时，",[128,2383,2385,2398],{"className":2384,"translate":218},[217],[128,2386,2388],{"className":2387},[222],[224,2389,2390],{"xmlns":226},[228,2391,2392,2396],{},[231,2393,2394],{},[1790,2395,1798],{},[238,2397,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,2399,2401],{"className":2400,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2402,2404,2407],{"className":2403},[250],[128,2405],{"className":2406,"style":283},[254],[128,2408,1798],{"className":2409,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的分布是什么」。这一层是纯统计学的领地。",[2252,2412,2413,2257,2416,2502,2503,2553,2554,2582],{},[35,2414,2415],{},"第二层（干预，Intervention）",[128,2417,2419,2453],{"className":2418,"translate":218},[217],[128,2420,2422],{"className":2421},[222],[224,2423,2424],{"xmlns":226},[228,2425,2426,2450],{},[231,2427,2428,2430,2432,2434,2436,2439,2442,2444,2446,2448],{},[1790,2429,1844],{},[1793,2431,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2433,2276],{},[1793,2435,1916],{},[1790,2437,2438],{},"d",[1790,2440,2441],{},"o",[1793,2443,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,2445,2281],{},[1793,2447,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,2449,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2451,2452],{"encoding":240},"P(y\\mid do(x))",[128,2454,2456,2480],{"className":2455,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2457,2459,2462,2465,2468,2471,2474,2477],{"className":2458},[250],[128,2460],{"className":2461,"style":1870},[254],[128,2463,1844],{"className":2464,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2466,1848],{"className":2467},[1878],[128,2469,2276],{"className":2470,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,2472],{"className":2473,"style":1945},[269],[128,2475,1916],{"className":2476},[1949],[128,2478],{"className":2479,"style":1945},[269],[128,2481,2483,2486,2489,2492,2495,2498],{"className":2482},[250],[128,2484],{"className":2485,"style":1870},[254],[128,2487,2438],{"className":2488},[259,1815],[128,2490,2441],{"className":2491},[259,1815],[128,2493,1848],{"className":2494},[1878],[128,2496,2281],{"className":2497},[259,1815],[128,2499,2501],{"className":2500},[1894],"))"," 的问题，即「若外部强行使 ",[128,2504,2506,2523],{"className":2505,"translate":218},[217],[128,2507,2509],{"className":2508},[222],[224,2510,2511],{"xmlns":226},[228,2512,2513,2521],{},[231,2514,2515,2517,2519],{},[1790,2516,364],{},[1793,2518,2344],{},[1790,2520,2281],{},[238,2522,2349],{"encoding":240},[128,2524,2526,2544],{"className":2525,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2527,2529,2532,2535,2538,2541],{"className":2528},[250],[128,2530],{"className":2531,"style":283},[254],[128,2533,364],{"className":2534,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2536],{"className":2537,"style":1945},[269],[128,2539,2344],{"className":2540},[1949],[128,2542],{"className":2543,"style":1945},[269],[128,2545,2547,2550],{"className":2546},[250],[128,2548],{"className":2549,"style":2377},[254],[128,2551,2281],{"className":2552},[259,1815],"，",[128,2555,2557,2570],{"className":2556,"translate":218},[217],[128,2558,2560],{"className":2559},[222],[224,2561,2562],{"xmlns":226},[228,2563,2564,2568],{},[231,2565,2566],{},[1790,2567,1798],{},[238,2569,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,2571,2573],{"className":2572,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2574,2576,2579],{"className":2575},[250],[128,2577],{"className":2578,"style":283},[254],[128,2580,1798],{"className":2581,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的分布是什么」。",[2252,2584,2585,2257,2588,2786,2787,2940,2941,2969,2970,2553,2998,3026],{},[35,2586,2587],{},"第三层（反事实，Counterfactual）",[128,2589,2591,2636],{"className":2590,"translate":218},[217],[128,2592,2594],{"className":2593},[222],[224,2595,2596],{"xmlns":226},[228,2597,2598,2633],{},[231,2599,2600,2602,2604,2611,2613,2623,2625,2631],{},[1790,2601,1844],{},[1793,2603,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,2606,2607,2609],"msub",{},[1790,2608,2276],{},[1790,2610,2281],{},[1793,2612,1916],{},[2614,2615,2616,2618],"msup",{},[1790,2617,2281],{},[1793,2619,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},"normal","0em","′",[1793,2624,1795],{"separator":246},[2614,2626,2627,2629],{},[1790,2628,2276],{},[1793,2630,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,2632,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,2634,2635],{"encoding":240},"P(y_x \\mid x', y')",[128,2637,2639,2704],{"className":2638,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2640,2642,2645,2648,2651,2695,2698,2701],{"className":2641},[250],[128,2643],{"className":2644,"style":1870},[254],[128,2646,1844],{"className":2647,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,2649,1848],{"className":2650},[1878],[128,2652,2654,2657],{"className":2653},[259],[128,2655,2276],{"className":2656,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,2658,2661],{"className":2659},[2660],"msupsub",[128,2662,2664,2686],{"className":2663},[274,321],[128,2665,2667,2683],{"className":2666},[278],[128,2668,2671],{"className":2669,"style":2670},[282],"height:0.1514em;",[128,2672,2674,2677],{"style":2673},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,2675],{"className":2676,"style":291},[290],[128,2678,2680],{"className":2679},[299,300,301,298],[128,2681,2281],{"className":2682},[259,1815,298],[128,2684,347],{"className":2685},[346],[128,2687,2689],{"className":2688},[278],[128,2690,2693],{"className":2691,"style":2692},[282],"height:0.15em;",[128,2694],{},[128,2696],{"className":2697,"style":1945},[269],[128,2699,1916],{"className":2700},[1949],[128,2702],{"className":2703,"style":1945},[269],[128,2705,2707,2711,2745,2748,2751,2783],{"className":2706},[250],[128,2708],{"className":2709,"style":2710},[254],"height:1.0019em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[128,2712,2714,2717],{"className":2713},[259],[128,2715,2281],{"className":2716},[259,1815],[128,2718,2720],{"className":2719},[2660],[128,2721,2723],{"className":2722},[274],[128,2724,2726],{"className":2725},[278],[128,2727,2730],{"className":2728,"style":2729},[282],"height:0.7519em;",[128,2731,2733,2736],{"style":2732},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,2734],{"className":2735,"style":291},[290],[128,2737,2739],{"className":2738},[299,300,301,298],[128,2740,2742],{"className":2741},[259,298],[128,2743,2622],{"className":2744},[259,298],[128,2746,1795],{"className":2747},[1820],[128,2749],{"className":2750,"style":1824},[269],[128,2752,2754,2757],{"className":2753},[259],[128,2755,2276],{"className":2756,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,2758,2760],{"className":2759},[2660],[128,2761,2763],{"className":2762},[274],[128,2764,2766],{"className":2765},[278],[128,2767,2769],{"className":2768,"style":2729},[282],[128,2770,2771,2774],{"style":2732},[128,2772],{"className":2773,"style":291},[290],[128,2775,2777],{"className":2776},[299,300,301,298],[128,2778,2780],{"className":2779},[259,298],[128,2781,2622],{"className":2782},[259,298],[128,2784,1857],{"className":2785},[1894]," 的问题，即「已经观测到 ",[128,2788,2790,2824],{"className":2789,"translate":218},[217],[128,2791,2793],{"className":2792},[222],[224,2794,2795],{"xmlns":226},[228,2796,2797,2821],{},[231,2798,2799,2801,2803,2809,2811,2813,2815],{},[1790,2800,364],{},[1793,2802,2344],{},[2614,2804,2805,2807],{},[1790,2806,2281],{},[1793,2808,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,2810,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,2812,1798],{},[1793,2814,2344],{},[2614,2816,2817,2819],{},[1790,2818,2276],{},[1793,2820,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[238,2822,2823],{"encoding":240},"X=x', Y=y'",[128,2825,2827,2845,2902],{"className":2826,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2828,2830,2833,2836,2839,2842],{"className":2829},[250],[128,2831],{"className":2832,"style":283},[254],[128,2834,364],{"className":2835,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,2837],{"className":2838,"style":1945},[269],[128,2840,2344],{"className":2841},[1949],[128,2843],{"className":2844,"style":1945},[269],[128,2846,2848,2852,2884,2887,2890,2893,2896,2899],{"className":2847},[250],[128,2849],{"className":2850,"style":2851},[254],"height:0.9463em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[128,2853,2855,2858],{"className":2854},[259],[128,2856,2281],{"className":2857},[259,1815],[128,2859,2861],{"className":2860},[2660],[128,2862,2864],{"className":2863},[274],[128,2865,2867],{"className":2866},[278],[128,2868,2870],{"className":2869,"style":2729},[282],[128,2871,2872,2875],{"style":2732},[128,2873],{"className":2874,"style":291},[290],[128,2876,2878],{"className":2877},[299,300,301,298],[128,2879,2881],{"className":2880},[259,298],[128,2882,2622],{"className":2883},[259,298],[128,2885,1795],{"className":2886},[1820],[128,2888],{"className":2889,"style":1824},[269],[128,2891,1798],{"className":2892,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,2894],{"className":2895,"style":1945},[269],[128,2897,2344],{"className":2898},[1949],[128,2900],{"className":2901,"style":1945},[269],[128,2903,2905,2908],{"className":2904},[250],[128,2906],{"className":2907,"style":2851},[254],[128,2909,2911,2914],{"className":2910},[259],[128,2912,2276],{"className":2913,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,2915,2917],{"className":2916},[2660],[128,2918,2920],{"className":2919},[274],[128,2921,2923],{"className":2922},[278],[128,2924,2926],{"className":2925,"style":2729},[282],[128,2927,2928,2931],{"style":2732},[128,2929],{"className":2930,"style":291},[290],[128,2932,2934],{"className":2933},[299,300,301,298],[128,2935,2937],{"className":2936},[259,298],[128,2938,2622],{"className":2939},[259,298]," 的这个个体，若当初 ",[128,2942,2944,2957],{"className":2943,"translate":218},[217],[128,2945,2947],{"className":2946},[222],[224,2948,2949],{"xmlns":226},[228,2950,2951,2955],{},[231,2952,2953],{},[1790,2954,364],{},[238,2956,364],{"encoding":240},[128,2958,2960],{"className":2959,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2961,2963,2966],{"className":2962},[250],[128,2964],{"className":2965,"style":283},[254],[128,2967,364],{"className":2968,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 被设为 ",[128,2971,2973,2986],{"className":2972,"translate":218},[217],[128,2974,2976],{"className":2975},[222],[224,2977,2978],{"xmlns":226},[228,2979,2980,2984],{},[231,2981,2982],{},[1790,2983,2281],{},[238,2985,2281],{"encoding":240},[128,2987,2989],{"className":2988,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,2990,2992,2995],{"className":2991},[250],[128,2993],{"className":2994,"style":2377},[254],[128,2996,2281],{"className":2997},[259,1815],[128,2999,3001,3014],{"className":3000,"translate":218},[217],[128,3002,3004],{"className":3003},[222],[224,3005,3006],{"xmlns":226},[228,3007,3008,3012],{},[231,3009,3010],{},[1790,3011,1798],{},[238,3013,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,3015,3017],{"className":3016,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,3018,3020,3023],{"className":3019},[250],[128,3021],{"className":3022,"style":283},[254],[128,3024,1798],{"className":3025,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 会取什么值」。",[11,3028,3029,3030,3033],{},"Pearl 证明了一个重要的否定性结论：",[35,3031,3032],{},"在一般情形下，仅凭第一层的信息（即观测分布本身），不足以唯一确定第二层或第三层的量","，除非引入额外的结构假设。这正是因果图、结构因果模型与结构方程存在的意义——它们是在观测分布之外，显式引入的「结构性知识」，使得第二、三层的问题在数学上可解。本文将依次、系统地展开这三个层层递进的形式化工具；随后把这一体系与潜在结果框架、传统结构方程模型等相邻传统作对照，并讨论其成立所依赖的假设与适用边界。",[51,3035,3036],{"id":3036},"因果图",[3038,3039,3041],"h3",{"id":3040},"_11-有向无环图的形式化定义","1.1 有向无环图的形式化定义",[64,3043,3044],{},[11,3045,3046,3049,3050,3127,3128,3309,3310,3388,3389,3552,3553,3689,3690,3760,3761,3831,3832,2553,3835,3760,3904,3831,3973,893],{},[35,3047,3048],{},"定义 1.1（有向图）"," 一个有向图是一个二元组 ",[128,3051,3053,3081],{"className":3052,"translate":218},[217],[128,3054,3056],{"className":3055},[222],[224,3057,3058],{"xmlns":226},[228,3059,3060,3078],{},[231,3061,3062,3065,3067,3069,3072,3074,3076],{},[1790,3063,3064],{},"G",[1793,3066,2344],{},[1793,3068,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,3070,3071],{},"V",[1793,3073,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,3075,342],{},[1793,3077,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,3079,3080],{"encoding":240},"G = (V, E)",[128,3082,3084,3102],{"className":3083,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,3085,3087,3090,3093,3096,3099],{"className":3086},[250],[128,3088],{"className":3089,"style":283},[254],[128,3091,3064],{"className":3092},[259,1815],[128,3094],{"className":3095,"style":1945},[269],[128,3097,2344],{"className":3098},[1949],[128,3100],{"className":3101,"style":1945},[269],[128,3103,3105,3108,3111,3114,3117,3120,3124],{"className":3104},[250],[128,3106],{"className":3107,"style":1870},[254],[128,3109,1848],{"className":3110},[1878],[128,3112,3071],{"className":3113,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3115,1795],{"className":3116},[1820],[128,3118],{"className":3119,"style":1824},[269],[128,3121,342],{"className":3122,"style":3123},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[128,3125,1857],{"className":3126},[1894],"，其中 ",[128,3129,3131,3175],{"className":3130,"translate":218},[217],[128,3132,3134],{"className":3133},[222],[224,3135,3136],{"xmlns":226},[228,3137,3138,3172],{},[231,3139,3140,3142,3144,3147,3155,3157,3160,3162,3169],{},[1790,3141,3071],{},[1793,3143,2344],{},[1793,3145,3146],{"stretchy":1847},"{",[2605,3148,3149,3151],{},[1790,3150,3071],{},[3152,3153,3154],"mn",{},"1",[1793,3156,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,3158,3159],{},"…",[1793,3161,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,3163,3164,3166],{},[1790,3165,3071],{},[1790,3167,3168],{},"n",[1793,3170,3171],{"stretchy":1847},"}",[238,3173,3174],{"encoding":240},"V = \\{V_1, \\dots, V_n\\}",[128,3176,3178,3196],{"className":3177,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,3179,3181,3184,3187,3190,3193],{"className":3180},[250],[128,3182],{"className":3183,"style":283},[254],[128,3185,3071],{"className":3186,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3188],{"className":3189,"style":1945},[269],[128,3191,2344],{"className":3192},[1949],[128,3194],{"className":3195,"style":1945},[269],[128,3197,3199,3202,3205,3247,3250,3253,3257,3260,3263,3266,3306],{"className":3198},[250],[128,3200],{"className":3201,"style":1870},[254],[128,3203,3146],{"className":3204},[1878],[128,3206,3208,3211],{"className":3207},[259],[128,3209,3071],{"className":3210,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3212,3214],{"className":3213},[2660],[128,3215,3217,3239],{"className":3216},[274,321],[128,3218,3220,3236],{"className":3219},[278],[128,3221,3224],{"className":3222,"style":3223},[282],"height:0.3011em;",[128,3225,3227,3230],{"style":3226},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,3228],{"className":3229,"style":291},[290],[128,3231,3233],{"className":3232},[299,300,301,298],[128,3234,3154],{"className":3235},[259,298],[128,3237,347],{"className":3238},[346],[128,3240,3242],{"className":3241},[278],[128,3243,3245],{"className":3244,"style":2692},[282],[128,3246],{},[128,3248,1795],{"className":3249},[1820],[128,3251],{"className":3252,"style":1824},[269],[128,3254,3159],{"className":3255},[3256],"minner",[128,3258],{"className":3259,"style":1824},[269],[128,3261,1795],{"className":3262},[1820],[128,3264],{"className":3265,"style":1824},[269],[128,3267,3269,3272],{"className":3268},[259],[128,3270,3071],{"className":3271,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3273,3275],{"className":3274},[2660],[128,3276,3278,3298],{"className":3277},[274,321],[128,3279,3281,3295],{"className":3280},[278],[128,3282,3284],{"className":3283,"style":2670},[282],[128,3285,3286,3289],{"style":3226},[128,3287],{"className":3288,"style":291},[290],[128,3290,3292],{"className":3291},[299,300,301,298],[128,3293,3168],{"className":3294},[259,1815,298],[128,3296,347],{"className":3297},[346],[128,3299,3301],{"className":3300},[278],[128,3302,3304],{"className":3303,"style":2692},[282],[128,3305],{},[128,3307,3171],{"className":3308},[1894]," 是节点（顶点）的有限集合，",[128,3311,3313,3337],{"className":3312,"translate":218},[217],[128,3314,3316],{"className":3315},[222],[224,3317,3318],{"xmlns":226},[228,3319,3320,3334],{},[231,3321,3322,3324,3327,3329,3332],{},[1790,3323,342],{},[1793,3325,3326],{},"⊆",[1790,3328,3071],{},[1793,3330,3331],{},"×",[1790,3333,3071],{},[238,3335,3336],{"encoding":240},"E \\subseteq V \\times V",[128,3338,3340,3359,3379],{"className":3339,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,3341,3343,3347,3350,3353,3356],{"className":3342},[250],[128,3344],{"className":3345,"style":3346},[254],"height:0.8193em;vertical-align:-0.136em;",[128,3348,342],{"className":3349,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,3351],{"className":3352,"style":1945},[269],[128,3354,3326],{"className":3355},[1949],[128,3357],{"className":3358,"style":1945},[269],[128,3360,3362,3366,3369,3372,3376],{"className":3361},[250],[128,3363],{"className":3364,"style":3365},[254],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[128,3367,3071],{"className":3368,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3370],{"className":3371,"style":1828},[269],[128,3373,3331],{"className":3374},[3375],"mbin",[128,3377],{"className":3378,"style":1828},[269],[128,3380,3382,3385],{"className":3381},[250],[128,3383],{"className":3384,"style":283},[254],[128,3386,3071],{"className":3387,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 是有向边的集合。若 ",[128,3390,3392,3429],{"className":3391,"translate":218},[217],[128,3393,3395],{"className":3394},[222],[224,3396,3397],{"xmlns":226},[228,3398,3399,3426],{},[231,3400,3401,3403,3410,3412,3419,3421,3424],{},[1793,3402,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,3404,3405,3407],{},[1790,3406,3071],{},[1790,3408,3409],{},"i",[1793,3411,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,3413,3414,3416],{},[1790,3415,3071],{},[1790,3417,3418],{},"j",[1793,3420,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,3422,3423],{},"∈",[1790,3425,342],{},[238,3427,3428],{"encoding":240},"(V_i, V_j) \\in E",[128,3430,3432,3543],{"className":3431,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,3433,3435,3439,3442,3483,3486,3489,3531,3534,3537,3540],{"className":3434},[250],[128,3436],{"className":3437,"style":3438},[254],"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[128,3440,1848],{"className":3441},[1878],[128,3443,3445,3448],{"className":3444},[259],[128,3446,3071],{"className":3447,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3449,3451],{"className":3450},[2660],[128,3452,3454,3475],{"className":3453},[274,321],[128,3455,3457,3472],{"className":3456},[278],[128,3458,3461],{"className":3459,"style":3460},[282],"height:0.3117em;",[128,3462,3463,3466],{"style":3226},[128,3464],{"className":3465,"style":291},[290],[128,3467,3469],{"className":3468},[299,300,301,298],[128,3470,3409],{"className":3471},[259,1815,298],[128,3473,347],{"className":3474},[346],[128,3476,3478],{"className":3477},[278],[128,3479,3481],{"className":3480,"style":2692},[282],[128,3482],{},[128,3484,1795],{"className":3485},[1820],[128,3487],{"className":3488,"style":1824},[269],[128,3490,3492,3495],{"className":3491},[259],[128,3493,3071],{"className":3494,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,3496,3498],{"className":3497},[2660],[128,3499,3501,3522],{"className":3500},[274,321],[128,3502,3504,3519],{"className":3503},[278],[128,3505,3507],{"className":3506,"style":3460},[282],[128,3508,3509,3512],{"style":3226},[128,3510],{"className":3511,"style":291},[290],[128,3513,3515],{"className":3514},[299,300,301,298],[128,3516,3418],{"className":3517,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],"margin-right:0.0572em;",[128,3520,347],{"className":3521},[346],[128,3523,3525],{"className":3524},[278],[128,3526,3529],{"className":3527,"style":3528},[282],"height:0.2861em;",[128,3530],{},[128,3532,1857],{"className":3533},[1894],[128,3535],{"className":3536,"style":1945},[269],[128,3538,3423],{"className":3539},[1949],[128,3541],{"className":3542,"style":1945},[269],[128,3544,3546,3549],{"className":3545},[250],[128,3547],{"className":3548,"style":283},[254],[128,3550,342],{"className":3551,"style":3123},[259,1815],"，记作 ",[128,3554,3556,3583],{"className":3555,"translate":218},[217],[128,3557,3559],{"className":3558},[222],[224,3560,3561],{"xmlns":226},[228,3562,3563,3580],{},[231,3564,3565,3571,3574],{},[2605,3566,3567,3569],{},[1790,3568,3071],{},[1790,3570,3409],{},[1793,3572,3573],{},"→",[2605,3575,3576,3578],{},[1790,3577,3071],{},[1790,3579,3418],{},[238,3581,3582],{"encoding":240},"V_i \\to 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为 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到 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的一条",[35,4154,4155],{},"路径","是一个节点序列 ",[128,4158,4160,4223],{"className":4159,"translate":218},[217],[128,4161,4163],{"className":4162},[222],[224,4164,4165],{"xmlns":226},[228,4166,4167,4220],{},[231,4168,4169,4172,4178,4180,4188,4190,4196,4198,4200,4202,4209,4211,4217],{},[1793,4170,4171],{"stretchy":1847},"⟨",[2605,4173,4174,4176],{},[1790,4175,3071],{},[1790,4177,3409],{},[1793,4179,2344],{},[2605,4181,4182,4185],{},[1790,4183,4184],{},"U",[3152,4186,4187],{},"0",[1793,4189,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,4191,4192,4194],{},[1790,4193,4184],{},[3152,4195,3154],{},[1793,4197,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,4199,3159],{},[1793,4201,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,4203,4204,4206],{},[1790,4205,4184],{},[1790,4207,4208],{},"k",[1793,4210,2344],{},[2605,4212,4213,4215],{},[1790,4214,3071],{},[1790,4216,3418],{},[1793,4218,4219],{"stretchy":1847},"⟩",[238,4221,4222],{"encoding":240},"\\langle V_i = U_0, U_1, \\dots, U_k = V_j\\rangle",[128,4224,4226,4284,4447],{"className":4225,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4227,4229,4232,4235,4275,4278,4281],{"className":4228},[250],[128,4230],{"className":4231,"style":1870},[254],[128,4233,4171],{"className":4234},[1878],[128,4236,4238,4241],{"className":4237},[259],[128,4239,3071],{"className":4240,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,4242,4244],{"className":4243},[2660],[128,4245,4247,4267],{"className":4246},[274,321],[128,4248,4250,4264],{"className":4249},[278],[128,4251,4253],{"className":4252,"style":3460},[282],[128,4254,4255,4258],{"style":3226},[128,4256],{"className":4257,"style":291},[290],[128,4259,4261],{"className":4260},[299,300,301,298],[128,4262,3409],{"className":4263},[259,1815,298],[128,4265,347],{"className":4266},[346],[128,4268,4270],{"className":4269},[278],[128,4271,4273],{"className":4272,"style":2692},[282],[128,4274],{},[128,4276],{"className":4277,"style":1945},[269],[128,4279,2344],{"className":4280},[1949],[128,4282],{"className":4283,"style":1945},[269],[128,4285,4287,4290,4332,4335,4338,4378,4381,4384,4387,4390,4393,4396,4438,4441,4444],{"className":4286},[250],[128,4288],{"className":4289,"style":1811},[254],[128,4291,4293,4297],{"className":4292},[259],[128,4294,4184],{"className":4295,"style":4296},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.109em;",[128,4298,4300],{"className":4299},[2660],[128,4301,4303,4324],{"className":4302},[274,321],[128,4304,4306,4321],{"className":4305},[278],[128,4307,4309],{"className":4308,"style":3223},[282],[128,4310,4312,4315],{"style":4311},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,4313],{"className":4314,"style":291},[290],[128,4316,4318],{"className":4317},[299,300,301,298],[128,4319,4187],{"className":4320},[259,298],[128,4322,347],{"className":4323},[346],[128,4325,4327],{"className":4326},[278],[128,4328,4330],{"className":4329,"style":2692},[282],[128,4331],{},[128,4333,1795],{"className":4334},[1820],[128,4336],{"className":4337,"style":1824},[269],[128,4339,4341,4344],{"className":4340},[259],[128,4342,4184],{"className":4343,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4345,4347],{"className":4346},[2660],[128,4348,4350,4370],{"className":4349},[274,321],[128,4351,4353,4367],{"className":4352},[278],[128,4354,4356],{"className":4355,"style":3223},[282],[128,4357,4358,4361],{"style":4311},[128,4359],{"className":4360,"style":291},[290],[128,4362,4364],{"className":4363},[299,300,301,298],[128,4365,3154],{"className":4366},[259,298],[128,4368,347],{"className":4369},[346],[128,4371,4373],{"className":4372},[278],[128,4374,4376],{"className":4375,"style":2692},[282],[128,4377],{},[128,4379,1795],{"className":4380},[1820],[128,4382],{"className":4383,"style":1824},[269],[128,4385,3159],{"className":4386},[3256],[128,4388],{"className":4389,"style":1824},[269],[128,4391,1795],{"className":4392},[1820],[128,4394],{"className":4395,"style":1824},[269],[128,4397,4399,4402],{"className":4398},[259],[128,4400,4184],{"className":4401,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4403,4405],{"className":4404},[2660],[128,4406,4408,4430],{"className":4407},[274,321],[128,4409,4411,4427],{"className":4410},[278],[128,4412,4415],{"className":4413,"style":4414},[282],"height:0.3361em;",[128,4416,4417,4420],{"style":4311},[128,4418],{"className":4419,"style":291},[290],[128,4421,4423],{"className":4422},[299,300,301,298],[128,4424,4208],{"className":4425,"style":4426},[259,1815,298],"margin-right:0.0315em;",[128,4428,347],{"className":4429},[346],[128,4431,4433],{"className":4432},[278],[128,4434,4436],{"className":4435,"style":2692},[282],[128,4437],{},[128,4439],{"className":4440,"style":1945},[269],[128,4442,2344],{"className":4443},[1949],[128,4445],{"className":4446,"style":1945},[269],[128,4448,4450,4453,4493],{"className":4449},[250],[128,4451],{"className":4452,"style":3438},[254],[128,4454,4456,4459],{"className":4455},[259],[128,4457,3071],{"className":4458,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,4460,4462],{"className":4461},[2660],[128,4463,4465,4485],{"className":4464},[274,321],[128,4466,4468,4482],{"className":4467},[278],[128,4469,4471],{"className":4470,"style":3460},[282],[128,4472,4473,4476],{"style":3226},[128,4474],{"className":4475,"style":291},[290],[128,4477,4479],{"className":4478},[299,300,301,298],[128,4480,3418],{"className":4481,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,4483,347],{"className":4484},[346],[128,4486,4488],{"className":4487},[278],[128,4489,4491],{"className":4490,"style":3528},[282],[128,4492],{},[128,4494,4219],{"className":4495},[1894],"，使得对每个 ",[128,4498,4500,4514],{"className":4499,"translate":218},[217],[128,4501,4503],{"className":4502},[222],[224,4504,4505],{"xmlns":226},[228,4506,4507,4512],{},[231,4508,4509],{},[1790,4510,4511],{},"t",[238,4513,4511],{"encoding":240},[128,4515,4517],{"className":4516,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4518,4520,4524],{"className":4519},[250],[128,4521],{"className":4522,"style":4523},[254],"height:0.6151em;",[128,4525,4511],{"className":4526},[259,1815],[128,4528,4530,4548],{"className":4529,"translate":218},[217],[128,4531,4533],{"className":4532},[222],[224,4534,4535],{"xmlns":226},[228,4536,4537,4545],{},[231,4538,4539],{},[2605,4540,4541,4543],{},[1790,4542,4184],{},[1790,4544,4511],{},[238,4546,4547],{"encoding":240},"U_t",[128,4549,4551],{"className":4550,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4552,4554,4557],{"className":4553},[250],[128,4555],{"className":4556,"style":3592},[254],[128,4558,4560,4563],{"className":4559},[259],[128,4561,4184],{"className":4562,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4564,4566],{"className":4565},[2660],[128,4567,4569,4590],{"className":4568},[274,321],[128,4570,4572,4587],{"className":4571},[278],[128,4573,4576],{"className":4574,"style":4575},[282],"height:0.2806em;",[128,4577,4578,4581],{"style":4311},[128,4579],{"className":4580,"style":291},[290],[128,4582,4584],{"className":4583},[299,300,301,298],[128,4585,4511],{"className":4586},[259,1815,298],[128,4588,347],{"className":4589},[346],[128,4591,4593],{"className":4592},[278],[128,4594,4596],{"className":4595,"style":2692},[282],[128,4597],{},[128,4599,4601,4626],{"className":4600,"translate":218},[217],[128,4602,4604],{"className":4603},[222],[224,4605,4606],{"xmlns":226},[228,4607,4608,4623],{},[231,4609,4610],{},[2605,4611,4612,4614],{},[1790,4613,4184],{},[231,4615,4616,4618,4621],{},[1790,4617,4511],{},[1793,4619,4620],{},"+",[3152,4622,3154],{},[238,4624,4625],{"encoding":240},"U_{t+1}",[128,4627,4629],{"className":4628,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4630,4632,4636],{"className":4631},[250],[128,4633],{"className":4634,"style":4635},[254],"height:0.8917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[128,4637,4639,4642],{"className":4638},[259],[128,4640,4184],{"className":4641,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4643,4645],{"className":4644},[2660],[128,4646,4648,4677],{"className":4647},[274,321],[128,4649,4651,4674],{"className":4650},[278],[128,4652,4654],{"className":4653,"style":3223},[282],[128,4655,4656,4659],{"style":4311},[128,4657],{"className":4658,"style":291},[290],[128,4660,4662],{"className":4661},[299,300,301,298],[128,4663,4665,4668,4671],{"className":4664},[259,298],[128,4666,4511],{"className":4667},[259,1815,298],[128,4669,4620],{"className":4670},[3375,298],[128,4672,3154],{"className":4673},[259,298],[128,4675,347],{"className":4676},[346],[128,4678,4680],{"className":4679},[278],[128,4681,4684],{"className":4682,"style":4683},[282],"height:0.2083em;",[128,4685],{}," 之间存在一条边（不论方向）。若路径上所有边的方向都与路径前进方向一致，称为",[35,4688,4689],{},"有向路径","；若 ",[128,4692,4694,4720],{"className":4693,"translate":218},[217],[128,4695,4697],{"className":4696},[222],[224,4698,4699],{"xmlns":226},[228,4700,4701,4717],{},[231,4702,4703,4709,4711],{},[2605,4704,4705,4707],{},[1790,4706,4184],{},[3152,4708,4187],{},[1793,4710,2344],{},[2605,4712,4713,4715],{},[1790,4714,4184],{},[1790,4716,4208],{},[238,4718,4719],{"encoding":240},"U_0 = U_k",[128,4721,4723,4778],{"className":4722,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4724,4726,4729,4769,4772,4775],{"className":4725},[250],[128,4727],{"className":4728,"style":3592},[254],[128,4730,4732,4735],{"className":4731},[259],[128,4733,4184],{"className":4734,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4736,4738],{"className":4737},[2660],[128,4739,4741,4761],{"className":4740},[274,321],[128,4742,4744,4758],{"className":4743},[278],[128,4745,4747],{"className":4746,"style":3223},[282],[128,4748,4749,4752],{"style":4311},[128,4750],{"className":4751,"style":291},[290],[128,4753,4755],{"className":4754},[299,300,301,298],[128,4756,4187],{"className":4757},[259,298],[128,4759,347],{"className":4760},[346],[128,4762,4764],{"className":4763},[278],[128,4765,4767],{"className":4766,"style":2692},[282],[128,4768],{},[128,4770],{"className":4771,"style":1945},[269],[128,4773,2344],{"className":4774},[1949],[128,4776],{"className":4777,"style":1945},[269],[128,4779,4781,4784],{"className":4780},[250],[128,4782],{"className":4783,"style":3592},[254],[128,4785,4787,4790],{"className":4786},[259],[128,4788,4184],{"className":4789,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,4791,4793],{"className":4792},[2660],[128,4794,4796,4816],{"className":4795},[274,321],[128,4797,4799,4813],{"className":4798},[278],[128,4800,4802],{"className":4801,"style":4414},[282],[128,4803,4804,4807],{"style":4311},[128,4805],{"className":4806,"style":291},[290],[128,4808,4810],{"className":4809},[299,300,301,298],[128,4811,4208],{"className":4812,"style":4426},[259,1815,298],[128,4814,347],{"className":4815},[346],[128,4817,4819],{"className":4818},[278],[128,4820,4822],{"className":4821,"style":2692},[282],[128,4823],{}," 且 ",[128,4826,4828,4847],{"className":4827,"translate":218},[217],[128,4829,4831],{"className":4830},[222],[224,4832,4833],{"xmlns":226},[228,4834,4835,4844],{},[231,4836,4837,4839,4842],{},[1790,4838,4208],{},[1793,4840,4841],{},"≥",[3152,4843,3154],{},[238,4845,4846],{"encoding":240},"k \\geq 1",[128,4848,4850,4869],{"className":4849,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4851,4853,4857,4860,4863,4866],{"className":4852},[250],[128,4854],{"className":4855,"style":4856},[254],"height:0.8304em;vertical-align:-0.136em;",[128,4858,4208],{"className":4859,"style":4426},[259,1815],[128,4861],{"className":4862,"style":1945},[269],[128,4864,4841],{"className":4865},[1949],[128,4867],{"className":4868,"style":1945},[269],[128,4870,4872,4876],{"className":4871},[250],[128,4873],{"className":4874,"style":4875},[254],"height:0.6444em;",[128,4877,3154],{"className":4878},[259],"，则称为一个",[35,4881,4882],{},"环（cycle）",[64,4884,4885],{},[11,4886,4887,4890,4891,4919,4920,4948],{},[35,4888,4889],{},"定义 1.3（有向无环图，DAG）"," 若图 ",[128,4892,4894,4907],{"className":4893,"translate":218},[217],[128,4895,4897],{"className":4896},[222],[224,4898,4899],{"xmlns":226},[228,4900,4901,4905],{},[231,4902,4903],{},[1790,4904,3064],{},[238,4906,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,4908,4910],{"className":4909,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4911,4913,4916],{"className":4912},[250],[128,4914],{"className":4915,"style":283},[254],[128,4917,3064],{"className":4918},[259,1815]," 中不存在任何环，则称 ",[128,4921,4923,4936],{"className":4922,"translate":218},[217],[128,4924,4926],{"className":4925},[222],[224,4927,4928],{"xmlns":226},[228,4929,4930,4934],{},[231,4931,4932],{},[1790,4933,3064],{},[238,4935,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,4937,4939],{"className":4938,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4940,4942,4945],{"className":4941},[250],[128,4943],{"className":4944,"style":283},[254],[128,4946,3064],{"className":4947},[259,1815]," 为有向无环图。",[64,4950,4951],{},[11,4952,4953,4956,4957,5031,5032,2553,5187,5256,5257,3831,5326,5329,5330,5399,5400,5469],{},[35,4954,4955],{},"定义 1.4（因果图）"," 一个因果图是一个 DAG ",[128,4958,4960,4986],{"className":4959,"translate":218},[217],[128,4961,4963],{"className":4962},[222],[224,4964,4965],{"xmlns":226},[228,4966,4967,4983],{},[231,4968,4969,4971,4973,4975,4977,4979,4981],{},[1790,4970,3064],{},[1793,4972,2344],{},[1793,4974,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,4976,3071],{},[1793,4978,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,4980,342],{},[1793,4982,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,4984,4985],{"encoding":240},"G=(V,E)",[128,4987,4989,5007],{"className":4988,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,4990,4992,4995,4998,5001,5004],{"className":4991},[250],[128,4993],{"className":4994,"style":283},[254],[128,4996,3064],{"className":4997},[259,1815],[128,4999],{"className":5000,"style":1945},[269],[128,5002,2344],{"className":5003},[1949],[128,5005],{"className":5006,"style":1945},[269],[128,5008,5010,5013,5016,5019,5022,5025,5028],{"className":5009},[250],[128,5011],{"className":5012,"style":1870},[254],[128,5014,1848],{"className":5015},[1878],[128,5017,3071],{"className":5018,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5020,1795],{"className":5021},[1820],[128,5023],{"className":5024,"style":1824},[269],[128,5026,342],{"className":5027,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5029,1857],{"className":5030},[1894],"，附加如下语义解释：对任意 ",[128,5033,5035,5068],{"className":5034,"translate":218},[217],[128,5036,5038],{"className":5037},[222],[224,5039,5040],{"xmlns":226},[228,5041,5042,5066],{},[231,5043,5044,5046,5052,5054,5060,5062,5064],{},[1793,5045,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,5047,5048,5050],{},[1790,5049,3071],{},[1790,5051,3409],{},[1793,5053,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,5055,5056,5058],{},[1790,5057,3071],{},[1790,5059,3418],{},[1793,5061,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,5063,3423],{},[1790,5065,342],{},[238,5067,3428],{"encoding":240},[128,5069,5071,5178],{"className":5070,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5072,5074,5077,5080,5120,5123,5126,5166,5169,5172,5175],{"className":5073},[250],[128,5075],{"className":5076,"style":3438},[254],[128,5078,1848],{"className":5079},[1878],[128,5081,5083,5086],{"className":5082},[259],[128,5084,3071],{"className":5085,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5087,5089],{"className":5088},[2660],[128,5090,5092,5112],{"className":5091},[274,321],[128,5093,5095,5109],{"className":5094},[278],[128,5096,5098],{"className":5097,"style":3460},[282],[128,5099,5100,5103],{"style":3226},[128,5101],{"className":5102,"style":291},[290],[128,5104,5106],{"className":5105},[299,300,301,298],[128,5107,3409],{"className":5108},[259,1815,298],[128,5110,347],{"className":5111},[346],[128,5113,5115],{"className":5114},[278],[128,5116,5118],{"className":5117,"style":2692},[282],[128,5119],{},[128,5121,1795],{"className":5122},[1820],[128,5124],{"className":5125,"style":1824},[269],[128,5127,5129,5132],{"className":5128},[259],[128,5130,3071],{"className":5131,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5133,5135],{"className":5134},[2660],[128,5136,5138,5158],{"className":5137},[274,321],[128,5139,5141,5155],{"className":5140},[278],[128,5142,5144],{"className":5143,"style":3460},[282],[128,5145,5146,5149],{"style":3226},[128,5147],{"className":5148,"style":291},[290],[128,5150,5152],{"className":5151},[299,300,301,298],[128,5153,3418],{"className":5154,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,5156,347],{"className":5157},[346],[128,5159,5161],{"className":5160},[278],[128,5162,5164],{"className":5163,"style":3528},[282],[128,5165],{},[128,5167,1857],{"className":5168},[1894],[128,5170],{"className":5171,"style":1945},[269],[128,5173,3423],{"className":5174},[1949],[128,5176],{"className":5177,"style":1945},[269],[128,5179,5181,5184],{"className":5180},[250],[128,5182],{"className":5183,"style":283},[254],[128,5185,342],{"className":5186,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5188,5190,5207],{"className":5189,"translate":218},[217],[128,5191,5193],{"className":5192},[222],[224,5194,5195],{"xmlns":226},[228,5196,5197,5205],{},[231,5198,5199],{},[2605,5200,5201,5203],{},[1790,5202,3071],{},[1790,5204,3409],{},[238,5206,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,5208,5210],{"className":5209,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5211,5213,5216],{"className":5212},[250],[128,5214],{"className":5215,"style":3592},[254],[128,5217,5219,5222],{"className":5218},[259],[128,5220,3071],{"className":5221,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5223,5225],{"className":5224},[2660],[128,5226,5228,5248],{"className":5227},[274,321],[128,5229,5231,5245],{"className":5230},[278],[128,5232,5234],{"className":5233,"style":3460},[282],[128,5235,5236,5239],{"style":3226},[128,5237],{"className":5238,"style":291},[290],[128,5240,5242],{"className":5241},[299,300,301,298],[128,5243,3409],{"className":5244},[259,1815,298],[128,5246,347],{"className":5247},[346],[128,5249,5251],{"className":5250},[278],[128,5252,5254],{"className":5253,"style":2692},[282],[128,5255],{}," 被假设为 ",[128,5258,5260,5277],{"className":5259,"translate":218},[217],[128,5261,5263],{"className":5262},[222],[224,5264,5265],{"xmlns":226},[228,5266,5267,5275],{},[231,5268,5269],{},[2605,5270,5271,5273],{},[1790,5272,3071],{},[1790,5274,3418],{},[238,5276,3781],{"encoding":240},[128,5278,5280],{"className":5279,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5281,5283,5286],{"className":5282},[250],[128,5284],{"className":5285,"style":3648},[254],[128,5287,5289,5292],{"className":5288},[259],[128,5290,3071],{"className":5291,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5293,5295],{"className":5294},[2660],[128,5296,5298,5318],{"className":5297},[274,321],[128,5299,5301,5315],{"className":5300},[278],[128,5302,5304],{"className":5303,"style":3460},[282],[128,5305,5306,5309],{"style":3226},[128,5307],{"className":5308,"style":291},[290],[128,5310,5312],{"className":5311},[299,300,301,298],[128,5313,3418],{"className":5314,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,5316,347],{"className":5317},[346],[128,5319,5321],{"className":5320},[278],[128,5322,5324],{"className":5323,"style":3528},[282],[128,5325],{},[35,5327,5328],{},"直接原因（direct cause）","——即存在至少一种对其余变量的取值组合，使得改变 ",[128,5331,5333,5350],{"className":5332,"translate":218},[217],[128,5334,5336],{"className":5335},[222],[224,5337,5338],{"xmlns":226},[228,5339,5340,5348],{},[231,5341,5342],{},[2605,5343,5344,5346],{},[1790,5345,3071],{},[1790,5347,3409],{},[238,5349,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,5351,5353],{"className":5352,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5354,5356,5359],{"className":5355},[250],[128,5357],{"className":5358,"style":3592},[254],[128,5360,5362,5365],{"className":5361},[259],[128,5363,3071],{"className":5364,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5366,5368],{"className":5367},[2660],[128,5369,5371,5391],{"className":5370},[274,321],[128,5372,5374,5388],{"className":5373},[278],[128,5375,5377],{"className":5376,"style":3460},[282],[128,5378,5379,5382],{"style":3226},[128,5380],{"className":5381,"style":291},[290],[128,5383,5385],{"className":5384},[299,300,301,298],[128,5386,3409],{"className":5387},[259,1815,298],[128,5389,347],{"className":5390},[346],[128,5392,5394],{"className":5393},[278],[128,5395,5397],{"className":5396,"style":2692},[282],[128,5398],{}," 会改变 ",[128,5401,5403,5420],{"className":5402,"translate":218},[217],[128,5404,5406],{"className":5405},[222],[224,5407,5408],{"xmlns":226},[228,5409,5410,5418],{},[231,5411,5412],{},[2605,5413,5414,5416],{},[1790,5415,3071],{},[1790,5417,3418],{},[238,5419,3781],{"encoding":240},[128,5421,5423],{"className":5422,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5424,5426,5429],{"className":5425},[250],[128,5427],{"className":5428,"style":3648},[254],[128,5430,5432,5435],{"className":5431},[259],[128,5433,3071],{"className":5434,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5436,5438],{"className":5437},[2660],[128,5439,5441,5461],{"className":5440},[274,321],[128,5442,5444,5458],{"className":5443},[278],[128,5445,5447],{"className":5446,"style":3460},[282],[128,5448,5449,5452],{"style":3226},[128,5450],{"className":5451,"style":291},[290],[128,5453,5455],{"className":5454},[299,300,301,298],[128,5456,3418],{"className":5457,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,5459,347],{"className":5460},[346],[128,5462,5464],{"className":5463},[278],[128,5465,5467],{"className":5466,"style":3528},[282],[128,5468],{}," 的取值或分布。",[11,5471,5472,5473,5476],{},"需要强调：因果图的每一条边都是一个",[35,5474,5475],{},"不可从数据中验证的结构性假设","（除非借助特定的因果发现算法与额外假设），它来自领域知识、实验设计或时间先后关系等外部信息。这一点是因果图区别于「从数据拟合出的图模型」的本质特征。",[64,5478,5479,5843,5849],{},[11,5480,5481,5484,5485,5594,5595,5623,5624,5838,5839,5842],{},[35,5482,5483],{},"例 1.1"," 设变量集合 ",[128,5486,5488,5527],{"className":5487,"translate":218},[217],[128,5489,5491],{"className":5490},[222],[224,5492,5493],{"xmlns":226},[228,5494,5495,5524],{},[231,5496,5497,5499,5501,5503,5506,5508,5511,5513,5515,5517,5519,5522],{},[1790,5498,3071],{},[1793,5500,2344],{},[1793,5502,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,5504,5505],{},"S",[1793,5507,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,5509,5510],{},"R",[1793,5512,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,5514,5505],{},[1790,5516,11],{},[1793,5518,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,5520,5521],{},"W",[1793,5523,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,5525,5526],{"encoding":240},"V = \\{S, R, Sp, W\\}",[128,5528,5530,5548],{"className":5529,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5531,5533,5536,5539,5542,5545],{"className":5532},[250],[128,5534],{"className":5535,"style":283},[254],[128,5537,3071],{"className":5538,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5540],{"className":5541,"style":1945},[269],[128,5543,2344],{"className":5544},[1949],[128,5546],{"className":5547,"style":1945},[269],[128,5549,5551,5554,5557,5560,5563,5566,5570,5573,5576,5579,5582,5585,5588,5591],{"className":5550},[250],[128,5552],{"className":5553,"style":1870},[254],[128,5555,3146],{"className":5556},[1878],[128,5558,5505],{"className":5559,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5561,1795],{"className":5562},[1820],[128,5564],{"className":5565,"style":1824},[269],[128,5567,5510],{"className":5568,"style":5569},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.0077em;",[128,5571,1795],{"className":5572},[1820],[128,5574],{"className":5575,"style":1824},[269],[128,5577,5505],{"className":5578,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5580,11],{"className":5581},[259,1815],[128,5583,1795],{"className":5584},[1820],[128,5586],{"className":5587,"style":1824},[269],[128,5589,5521],{"className":5590,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,5592,3171],{"className":5593},[1894],"，分别代表季节（Season）、下雨（Rain）、洒水器开启（Sprinkler）、草坪潮湿（WetGrass）。因果图 ",[128,5596,5598,5611],{"className":5597,"translate":218},[217],[128,5599,5601],{"className":5600},[222],[224,5602,5603],{"xmlns":226},[228,5604,5605,5609],{},[231,5606,5607],{},[1790,5608,3064],{},[238,5610,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,5612,5614],{"className":5613,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5615,5617,5620],{"className":5616},[250],[128,5618],{"className":5619,"style":283},[254],[128,5621,3064],{"className":5622},[259,1815]," 定义为：\n",[128,5625,5627,5688],{"className":5626,"translate":218},[217],[128,5628,5630],{"className":5629},[222],[224,5631,5632],{"xmlns":226},[228,5633,5634,5685],{},[231,5635,5636,5638,5640,5642,5644,5646,5648,5650,5653,5655,5657,5659,5661,5663,5665,5667,5669,5671,5673,5675,5677,5679,5681,5683],{},[1790,5637,342],{},[1793,5639,2344],{},[1793,5641,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,5643,5505],{},[1793,5645,3573],{},[1790,5647,5510],{},[1793,5649,1795],{"separator":246},[234,5651,5652],{}," ",[1790,5654,5505],{},[1793,5656,3573],{},[1790,5658,5505],{},[1790,5660,11],{},[1793,5662,1795],{"separator":246},[234,5664,5652],{},[1790,5666,5510],{},[1793,5668,3573],{},[1790,5670,5521],{},[1793,5672,1795],{"separator":246},[234,5674,5652],{},[1790,5676,5505],{},[1790,5678,11],{},[1793,5680,3573],{},[1790,5682,5521],{},[1793,5684,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,5686,5687],{"encoding":240},"E = \\{S \\to R,\\ S \\to Sp,\\ R \\to W,\\ Sp \\to W\\}",[128,5689,5691,5709,5730,5760,5793,5826],{"className":5690,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5692,5694,5697,5700,5703,5706],{"className":5693},[250],[128,5695],{"className":5696,"style":283},[254],[128,5698,342],{"className":5699,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5701],{"className":5702,"style":1945},[269],[128,5704,2344],{"className":5705},[1949],[128,5707],{"className":5708,"style":1945},[269],[128,5710,5712,5715,5718,5721,5724,5727],{"className":5711},[250],[128,5713],{"className":5714,"style":1870},[254],[128,5716,3146],{"className":5717},[1878],[128,5719,5505],{"className":5720,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5722],{"className":5723,"style":1945},[269],[128,5725,3573],{"className":5726},[1949],[128,5728],{"className":5729,"style":1945},[269],[128,5731,5733,5736,5739,5742,5745,5748,5751,5754,5757],{"className":5732},[250],[128,5734],{"className":5735,"style":1811},[254],[128,5737,5510],{"className":5738,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,5740,1795],{"className":5741},[1820],[128,5743,5652],{"className":5744},[269],[128,5746],{"className":5747,"style":1824},[269],[128,5749,5505],{"className":5750,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5752],{"className":5753,"style":1945},[269],[128,5755,3573],{"className":5756},[1949],[128,5758],{"className":5759,"style":1945},[269],[128,5761,5763,5766,5769,5772,5775,5778,5781,5784,5787,5790],{"className":5762},[250],[128,5764],{"className":5765,"style":1811},[254],[128,5767,5505],{"className":5768,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5770,11],{"className":5771},[259,1815],[128,5773,1795],{"className":5774},[1820],[128,5776,5652],{"className":5777},[269],[128,5779],{"className":5780,"style":1824},[269],[128,5782,5510],{"className":5783,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,5785],{"className":5786,"style":1945},[269],[128,5788,3573],{"className":5789},[1949],[128,5791],{"className":5792,"style":1945},[269],[128,5794,5796,5799,5802,5805,5808,5811,5814,5817,5820,5823],{"className":5795},[250],[128,5797],{"className":5798,"style":1811},[254],[128,5800,5521],{"className":5801,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,5803,1795],{"className":5804},[1820],[128,5806,5652],{"className":5807},[269],[128,5809],{"className":5810,"style":1824},[269],[128,5812,5505],{"className":5813,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,5815,11],{"className":5816},[259,1815],[128,5818],{"className":5819,"style":1945},[269],[128,5821,3573],{"className":5822},[1949],[128,5824],{"className":5825,"style":1945},[269],[128,5827,5829,5832,5835],{"className":5828},[250],[128,5830],{"className":5831,"style":1870},[254],[128,5833,5521],{"className":5834,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,5836,3171],{"className":5837},[1894],"\n此图断言：季节直接影响降雨与洒水器的开启概率；降雨与洒水器开启都直接影响草坪是否潮湿；而季节对草坪潮湿的影响完全通过降雨与洒水器这两条中介路径传递，不存在季节直接作用于草坪的边。这后一点——",[35,5840,5841],{},"某条边不存在","——与图中已画出的边同样重要，是因果图的核心信息量所在。整张图的形状如下：",[118,5844,5847],{"className":5845,"code":5846,"language":260},[1443],"           ┌──────────→ R ──────────┐\n           │                        ↓\n      S ───┤                        W\n           │                        ↑\n           └──────────→ Sp ─────────┘\n",[125,5848,5846],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,5850,5851,5852,5880,5881,5909],{},"其中季节 ",[128,5853,5855,5868],{"className":5854,"translate":218},[217],[128,5856,5858],{"className":5857},[222],[224,5859,5860],{"xmlns":226},[228,5861,5862,5866],{},[231,5863,5864],{},[1790,5865,5505],{},[238,5867,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,5869,5871],{"className":5870,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5872,5874,5877],{"className":5873},[250],[128,5875],{"className":5876,"style":283},[254],[128,5878,5505],{"className":5879,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 是整套机制的源头，草坪潮湿 ",[128,5882,5884,5897],{"className":5883,"translate":218},[217],[128,5885,5887],{"className":5886},[222],[224,5888,5889],{"xmlns":226},[228,5890,5891,5895],{},[231,5892,5893],{},[1790,5894,5521],{},[238,5896,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,5898,5900],{"className":5899,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5901,5903,5906],{"className":5902},[250],[128,5904],{"className":5905,"style":283},[254],[128,5907,5521],{"className":5908,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 是两条中介路径的汇合点。",[3038,5911,5913],{"id":5912},"_12-三种基本连接结构及其统计含义","1.2 三种基本连接结构及其统计含义",[11,5915,5916,5917,2553,5974,6002,6003,6044],{},"任意路径都可以分解为若干长度为 2 的子路径（即三节点结构），因此理解全图的依赖关系，可以归约为理解三种基本三节点结构。设三个节点 ",[128,5918,5920,5943],{"className":5919,"translate":218},[217],[128,5921,5923],{"className":5922},[222],[224,5924,5925],{"xmlns":226},[228,5926,5927,5940],{},[231,5928,5929,5931,5933,5936,5938],{},[1790,5930,364],{},[1793,5932,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,5934,5935],{},"Z",[1793,5937,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,5939,1798],{},[238,5941,5942],{"encoding":240},"X, Z, Y",[128,5944,5946],{"className":5945,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5947,5949,5952,5955,5958,5961,5965,5968,5971],{"className":5948},[250],[128,5950],{"className":5951,"style":1811},[254],[128,5953,364],{"className":5954,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,5956,1795],{"className":5957},[1820],[128,5959],{"className":5960,"style":1824},[269],[128,5962,5935],{"className":5963,"style":5964},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.0715em;",[128,5966,1795],{"className":5967},[1820],[128,5969],{"className":5970,"style":1824},[269],[128,5972,1798],{"className":5973,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,5975,5977,5990],{"className":5976,"translate":218},[217],[128,5978,5980],{"className":5979},[222],[224,5981,5982],{"xmlns":226},[228,5983,5984,5988],{},[231,5985,5986],{},[1790,5987,5935],{},[238,5989,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,5991,5993],{"className":5992,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,5994,5996,5999],{"className":5995},[250],[128,5997],{"className":5998,"style":283},[254],[128,6000,5935],{"className":6001,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 位于 ",[128,6004,6006,6023],{"className":6005,"translate":218},[217],[128,6007,6009],{"className":6008},[222],[224,6010,6011],{"xmlns":226},[228,6012,6013,6021],{},[231,6014,6015,6017,6019],{},[1790,6016,364],{},[1793,6018,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,6020,1798],{},[238,6022,1801],{"encoding":240},[128,6024,6026],{"className":6025,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6027,6029,6032,6035,6038,6041],{"className":6028},[250],[128,6030],{"className":6031,"style":1811},[254],[128,6033,364],{"className":6034,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6036,1795],{"className":6037},[1820],[128,6039],{"className":6040,"style":1824},[269],[128,6042,1798],{"className":6043,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间的路径上。三种结构图示如下：",[118,6046,6049],{"className":6047,"code":6048,"language":260},[1443],"   链      X ──→ Z ──→ Y\n\n   叉      X ←── Z ──→ Y\n\n   对撞    X ──→ Z ←── Y\n",[125,6050,6048],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,6052,6053,1148,6056],{},[35,6054,6055],{},"结构一：链（Chain）",[128,6057,6059,6081],{"className":6058,"translate":218},[217],[128,6060,6062],{"className":6061},[222],[224,6063,6064],{"xmlns":226},[228,6065,6066,6078],{},[231,6067,6068,6070,6072,6074,6076],{},[1790,6069,364],{},[1793,6071,3573],{},[1790,6073,5935],{},[1793,6075,3573],{},[1790,6077,1798],{},[238,6079,6080],{"encoding":240},"X \\to Z \\to Y",[128,6082,6084,6102,6120],{"className":6083,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6085,6087,6090,6093,6096,6099],{"className":6086},[250],[128,6088],{"className":6089,"style":283},[254],[128,6091,364],{"className":6092,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6094],{"className":6095,"style":1945},[269],[128,6097,3573],{"className":6098},[1949],[128,6100],{"className":6101,"style":1945},[269],[128,6103,6105,6108,6111,6114,6117],{"className":6104},[250],[128,6106],{"className":6107,"style":283},[254],[128,6109,5935],{"className":6110,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,6112],{"className":6113,"style":1945},[269],[128,6115,3573],{"className":6116},[1949],[128,6118],{"className":6119,"style":1945},[269],[128,6121,6123,6126],{"className":6122},[250],[128,6124],{"className":6125,"style":283},[254],[128,6127,1798],{"className":6128,"style":1828},[259,1815],[64,6130,6131],{},[11,6132,6133,6136,6137,6253,6254,6353,6354,6382],{},[35,6134,6135],{},"命题 1.1"," 在链式结构下，若结构方程满足一般位置条件（无退化取消），则 ",[128,6138,6140,6167],{"className":6139,"translate":218},[217],[128,6141,6143],{"className":6142},[222],[224,6144,6145],{"xmlns":226},[228,6146,6147,6164],{},[231,6148,6149,6151,6154,6156,6158,6160,6162],{},[1790,6150,364],{},[1793,6152,6153],{},"⊥̸",[234,6155,1985],{},[234,6157,1985],{},[234,6159,1985],{},[1793,6161,1982],{},[1790,6163,1798],{},[238,6165,6166],{"encoding":240},"X \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y",[128,6168,6170,6232,6244],{"className":6169,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6171,6173,6177,6180,6183,6216,6220,6223,6226,6229],{"className":6172},[250],[128,6174],{"className":6175,"style":6176},[254],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[128,6178,364],{"className":6179,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6181],{"className":6182,"style":1945},[269],[128,6184,6186],{"className":6185},[1949],[128,6187,6190],{"className":6188},[259,6189],"vbox",[128,6191,6194],{"className":6192},[6193],"thinbox",[128,6195,6198,6201,6212],{"className":6196},[6197],"rlap",[128,6199],{"className":6200,"style":6176},[254],[128,6202,6205],{"className":6203},[6204],"inner",[128,6206,6208],{"className":6207},[259],[128,6209,6211],{"className":6210},[1949],"",[128,6213],{"className":6214},[6215],"fix",[128,6217],{"className":6218},[269,6219],"nobreak",[128,6221,1982],{"className":6222},[1949],[128,6224],{"className":6225,"style":317},[269],[128,6227],{"className":6228,"style":317},[269],[128,6230],{"className":6231,"style":317},[269],[128,6233,6235,6238,6241],{"className":6234},[250],[128,6236],{"className":6237,"style":2006},[254],[128,6239,1982],{"className":6240},[1949],[128,6242],{"className":6243,"style":1945},[269],[128,6245,6247,6250],{"className":6246},[250],[128,6248],{"className":6249,"style":283},[254],[128,6251,1798],{"className":6252,"style":1828},[259,1815],"（边际不独立），但 ",[128,6255,6257,6287],{"className":6256,"translate":218},[217],[128,6258,6260],{"className":6259},[222],[224,6261,6262],{"xmlns":226},[228,6263,6264,6284],{},[231,6265,6266,6268,6270,6272,6274,6276,6278,6280,6282],{},[1790,6267,364],{},[1793,6269,1982],{},[234,6271,1985],{},[234,6273,1985],{},[234,6275,1985],{},[1793,6277,1982],{},[1790,6279,1798],{},[1793,6281,1916],{},[1790,6283,5935],{},[238,6285,6286],{"encoding":240},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid Z",[128,6288,6290,6314,6326,6344],{"className":6289,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6291,6293,6296,6299,6302,6305,6308,6311],{"className":6292},[250],[128,6294],{"className":6295,"style":2006},[254],[128,6297,364],{"className":6298,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6300],{"className":6301,"style":1945},[269],[128,6303,1982],{"className":6304},[1949],[128,6306],{"className":6307,"style":317},[269],[128,6309],{"className":6310,"style":317},[269],[128,6312],{"className":6313,"style":317},[269],[128,6315,6317,6320,6323],{"className":6316},[250],[128,6318],{"className":6319,"style":2006},[254],[128,6321,1982],{"className":6322},[1949],[128,6324],{"className":6325,"style":1945},[269],[128,6327,6329,6332,6335,6338,6341],{"className":6328},[250],[128,6330],{"className":6331,"style":1870},[254],[128,6333,1798],{"className":6334,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,6336],{"className":6337,"style":1945},[269],[128,6339,1916],{"className":6340},[1949],[128,6342],{"className":6343,"style":1945},[269],[128,6345,6347,6350],{"className":6346},[250],[128,6348],{"className":6349,"style":283},[254],[128,6351,5935],{"className":6352,"style":5964},[259,1815],"（给定 ",[128,6355,6357,6370],{"className":6356,"translate":218},[217],[128,6358,6360],{"className":6359},[222],[224,6361,6362],{"xmlns":226},[228,6363,6364,6368],{},[231,6365,6366],{},[1790,6367,5935],{},[238,6369,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,6371,6373],{"className":6372,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6374,6376,6379],{"className":6375},[250],[128,6377],{"className":6378,"style":283},[254],[128,6380,5935],{"className":6381,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 时条件独立）。",[11,6384,6385,2247,6389,6417,6418,6446,6447,6475,6476,6504,6505,6533,6534,6562],{},[6386,6387,6388],"em",{},"直观证明",[128,6390,6392,6405],{"className":6391,"translate":218},[217],[128,6393,6395],{"className":6394},[222],[224,6396,6397],{"xmlns":226},[228,6398,6399,6403],{},[231,6400,6401],{},[1790,6402,364],{},[238,6404,364],{"encoding":240},[128,6406,6408],{"className":6407,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6409,6411,6414],{"className":6410},[250],[128,6412],{"className":6413,"style":283},[254],[128,6415,364],{"className":6416,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 对 ",[128,6419,6421,6434],{"className":6420,"translate":218},[217],[128,6422,6424],{"className":6423},[222],[224,6425,6426],{"xmlns":226},[228,6427,6428,6432],{},[231,6429,6430],{},[1790,6431,1798],{},[238,6433,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,6435,6437],{"className":6436,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6438,6440,6443],{"className":6439},[250],[128,6441],{"className":6442,"style":283},[254],[128,6444,1798],{"className":6445,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的全部影响必须经过 ",[128,6448,6450,6463],{"className":6449,"translate":218},[217],[128,6451,6453],{"className":6452},[222],[224,6454,6455],{"xmlns":226},[228,6456,6457,6461],{},[231,6458,6459],{},[1790,6460,5935],{},[238,6462,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,6464,6466],{"className":6465,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6467,6469,6472],{"className":6468},[250],[128,6470],{"className":6471,"style":283},[254],[128,6473,5935],{"className":6474,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 传递。一旦 ",[128,6477,6479,6492],{"className":6478,"translate":218},[217],[128,6480,6482],{"className":6481},[222],[224,6483,6484],{"xmlns":226},[228,6485,6486,6490],{},[231,6487,6488],{},[1790,6489,5935],{},[238,6491,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,6493,6495],{"className":6494,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6496,6498,6501],{"className":6497},[250],[128,6499],{"className":6500,"style":283},[254],[128,6502,5935],{"className":6503,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 的取值被固定，",[128,6506,6508,6521],{"className":6507,"translate":218},[217],[128,6509,6511],{"className":6510},[222],[224,6512,6513],{"xmlns":226},[228,6514,6515,6519],{},[231,6516,6517],{},[1790,6518,364],{},[238,6520,364],{"encoding":240},[128,6522,6524],{"className":6523,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6525,6527,6530],{"className":6526},[250],[128,6528],{"className":6529,"style":283},[254],[128,6531,364],{"className":6532,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 就丧失了改变 ",[128,6535,6537,6550],{"className":6536,"translate":218},[217],[128,6538,6540],{"className":6539},[222],[224,6541,6542],{"xmlns":226},[228,6543,6544,6548],{},[231,6545,6546],{},[1790,6547,1798],{},[238,6549,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,6551,6553],{"className":6552,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6554,6556,6559],{"className":6555},[250],[128,6557],{"className":6558,"style":283},[254],[128,6560,1798],{"className":6561,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 分布的任何「渠道」，因此二者在此条件下不再携带彼此的信息。",[64,6564,6565],{},[11,6566,6567,6570],{},[35,6568,6569],{},"例 1.2"," 吸烟（Smoking）→ 焦油沉积（Tar）→ 肺癌（Cancer）。边际地看，吸烟与肺癌高度相关；但若将研究对象限定为「焦油沉积水平完全相同的人群」，则在这一子群体内，是否吸烟与是否患癌不再相关——因为吸烟致癌的全部机制已经被「焦油沉积」这一中介变量所概括。",[11,6572,6573,6576,6577,6580],{},[35,6574,6575],{},"需要强调这里隐含的假设","：上述结论真正成立的前提，是「焦油沉积」与「肺癌」之间不存在未观测的共同原因。这一点值得仔细分辨——它并不是「在数据中按焦油分层」，而是在说「若外部把焦油水平固定住，吸烟对肺癌就不再有效应」。二者只有在特定假设下才一致：一旦焦油与肺癌之间存在未观测的共同原因，条件化焦油反而会在中介与结果之间引入新的对撞偏差（其机制正是下文结构三）。因此例 1.2 应被理解为一个",[35,6578,6579],{},"理想化的机制分解","，而非一条可以在真实流行病学数据上直接执行的结论——这也正是 3.4 节中介分析必须依赖更强假设的原因。",[11,6582,6583,1148,6586],{},[35,6584,6585],{},"结构二：叉（Fork），共同原因结构",[128,6587,6589,6612],{"className":6588,"translate":218},[217],[128,6590,6592],{"className":6591},[222],[224,6593,6594],{"xmlns":226},[228,6595,6596,6609],{},[231,6597,6598,6600,6603,6605,6607],{},[1790,6599,364],{},[1793,6601,6602],{},"←",[1790,6604,5935],{},[1793,6606,3573],{},[1790,6608,1798],{},[238,6610,6611],{"encoding":240},"X \\leftarrow Z \\to Y",[128,6613,6615,6633,6651],{"className":6614,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6616,6618,6621,6624,6627,6630],{"className":6617},[250],[128,6619],{"className":6620,"style":283},[254],[128,6622,364],{"className":6623,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6625],{"className":6626,"style":1945},[269],[128,6628,6602],{"className":6629},[1949],[128,6631],{"className":6632,"style":1945},[269],[128,6634,6636,6639,6642,6645,6648],{"className":6635},[250],[128,6637],{"className":6638,"style":283},[254],[128,6640,5935],{"className":6641,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,6643],{"className":6644,"style":1945},[269],[128,6646,3573],{"className":6647},[1949],[128,6649],{"className":6650,"style":1945},[269],[128,6652,6654,6657],{"className":6653},[250],[128,6655],{"className":6656,"style":283},[254],[128,6658,1798],{"className":6659,"style":1828},[259,1815],[64,6661,6662],{},[11,6663,6664,6667,6668,6253,6774,893],{},[35,6665,6666],{},"命题 1.2"," 在叉式结构下，",[128,6669,6671,6696],{"className":6670,"translate":218},[217],[128,6672,6674],{"className":6673},[222],[224,6675,6676],{"xmlns":226},[228,6677,6678,6694],{},[231,6679,6680,6682,6684,6686,6688,6690,6692],{},[1790,6681,364],{},[1793,6683,6153],{},[234,6685,1985],{},[234,6687,1985],{},[234,6689,1985],{},[1793,6691,1982],{},[1790,6693,1798],{},[238,6695,6166],{"encoding":240},[128,6697,6699,6753,6765],{"className":6698,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6700,6702,6705,6708,6711,6738,6741,6744,6747,6750],{"className":6701},[250],[128,6703],{"className":6704,"style":6176},[254],[128,6706,364],{"className":6707,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6709],{"className":6710,"style":1945},[269],[128,6712,6714],{"className":6713},[1949],[128,6715,6717],{"className":6716},[259,6189],[128,6718,6720],{"className":6719},[6193],[128,6721,6723,6726,6735],{"className":6722},[6197],[128,6724],{"className":6725,"style":6176},[254],[128,6727,6729],{"className":6728},[6204],[128,6730,6732],{"className":6731},[259],[128,6733,6211],{"className":6734},[1949],[128,6736],{"className":6737},[6215],[128,6739],{"className":6740},[269,6219],[128,6742,1982],{"className":6743},[1949],[128,6745],{"className":6746,"style":317},[269],[128,6748],{"className":6749,"style":317},[269],[128,6751],{"className":6752,"style":317},[269],[128,6754,6756,6759,6762],{"className":6755},[250],[128,6757],{"className":6758,"style":2006},[254],[128,6760,1982],{"className":6761},[1949],[128,6763],{"className":6764,"style":1945},[269],[128,6766,6768,6771],{"className":6767},[250],[128,6769],{"className":6770,"style":283},[254],[128,6772,1798],{"className":6773,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,6775,6777,6806],{"className":6776,"translate":218},[217],[128,6778,6780],{"className":6779},[222],[224,6781,6782],{"xmlns":226},[228,6783,6784,6804],{},[231,6785,6786,6788,6790,6792,6794,6796,6798,6800,6802],{},[1790,6787,364],{},[1793,6789,1982],{},[234,6791,1985],{},[234,6793,1985],{},[234,6795,1985],{},[1793,6797,1982],{},[1790,6799,1798],{},[1793,6801,1916],{},[1790,6803,5935],{},[238,6805,6286],{"encoding":240},[128,6807,6809,6833,6845,6863],{"className":6808,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6810,6812,6815,6818,6821,6824,6827,6830],{"className":6811},[250],[128,6813],{"className":6814,"style":2006},[254],[128,6816,364],{"className":6817,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6819],{"className":6820,"style":1945},[269],[128,6822,1982],{"className":6823},[1949],[128,6825],{"className":6826,"style":317},[269],[128,6828],{"className":6829,"style":317},[269],[128,6831],{"className":6832,"style":317},[269],[128,6834,6836,6839,6842],{"className":6835},[250],[128,6837],{"className":6838,"style":2006},[254],[128,6840,1982],{"className":6841},[1949],[128,6843],{"className":6844,"style":1945},[269],[128,6846,6848,6851,6854,6857,6860],{"className":6847},[250],[128,6849],{"className":6850,"style":1870},[254],[128,6852,1798],{"className":6853,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,6855],{"className":6856,"style":1945},[269],[128,6858,1916],{"className":6859},[1949],[128,6861],{"className":6862,"style":1945},[269],[128,6864,6866,6869],{"className":6865},[250],[128,6867],{"className":6868,"style":283},[254],[128,6870,5935],{"className":6871,"style":5964},[259,1815],[64,6873,6874],{},[11,6875,6876,6879,6880,6917,6918,6955,6956,6993,6994,2553,6997,7025,7026,893],{},[35,6877,6878],{},"例 1.3"," 气温（Temperature）→ 冰淇淋销量（IceCream），气温 → 溺水人数（Drowning）。",[128,6881,6883,6899],{"className":6882,"translate":218},[217],[128,6884,6886],{"className":6885},[222],[224,6887,6888],{"xmlns":226},[228,6889,6890,6896],{},[231,6891,6892,6894],{},[1790,6893,364],{},[1793,6895,2344],{},[238,6897,6898],{"encoding":240},"X=",[128,6900,6902],{"className":6901,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6903,6905,6908,6911,6914],{"className":6904},[250],[128,6906],{"className":6907,"style":283},[254],[128,6909,364],{"className":6910,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,6912],{"className":6913,"style":1945},[269],[128,6915,2344],{"className":6916},[1949]," 冰淇淋销量，",[128,6919,6921,6937],{"className":6920,"translate":218},[217],[128,6922,6924],{"className":6923},[222],[224,6925,6926],{"xmlns":226},[228,6927,6928,6934],{},[231,6929,6930,6932],{},[1790,6931,1798],{},[1793,6933,2344],{},[238,6935,6936],{"encoding":240},"Y=",[128,6938,6940],{"className":6939,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6941,6943,6946,6949,6952],{"className":6942},[250],[128,6944],{"className":6945,"style":283},[254],[128,6947,1798],{"className":6948,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,6950],{"className":6951,"style":1945},[269],[128,6953,2344],{"className":6954},[1949]," 溺水人数，二者在夏季同步上升，边际相关系数显著为正；但若将数据按气温分层（即条件化 ",[128,6957,6959,6975],{"className":6958,"translate":218},[217],[128,6960,6962],{"className":6961},[222],[224,6963,6964],{"xmlns":226},[228,6965,6966,6972],{},[231,6967,6968,6970],{},[1790,6969,5935],{},[1793,6971,2344],{},[238,6973,6974],{"encoding":240},"Z=",[128,6976,6978],{"className":6977,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,6979,6981,6984,6987,6990],{"className":6980},[250],[128,6982],{"className":6983,"style":283},[254],[128,6985,5935],{"className":6986,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,6988],{"className":6989,"style":1945},[269],[128,6991,2344],{"className":6992},[1949],"气温），在每一层内部冰淇淋销量与溺水人数不再相关。这类由共同原因导致的边际关联，称为",[35,6995,6996],{},"虚假关联（spurious association）",[128,6998,7000,7013],{"className":6999,"translate":218},[217],[128,7001,7003],{"className":7002},[222],[224,7004,7005],{"xmlns":226},[228,7006,7007,7011],{},[231,7008,7009],{},[1790,7010,5935],{},[238,7012,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7014,7016],{"className":7015,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7017,7019,7022],{"className":7018},[250],[128,7020],{"className":7021,"style":283},[254],[128,7023,5935],{"className":7024,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 称为",[35,7027,7028],{},"混杂因子（confounder）",[11,7030,7031,1148,7034],{},[35,7032,7033],{},"结构三：对撞（Collider）",[128,7035,7037,7059],{"className":7036,"translate":218},[217],[128,7038,7040],{"className":7039},[222],[224,7041,7042],{"xmlns":226},[228,7043,7044,7056],{},[231,7045,7046,7048,7050,7052,7054],{},[1790,7047,364],{},[1793,7049,3573],{},[1790,7051,5935],{},[1793,7053,6602],{},[1790,7055,1798],{},[238,7057,7058],{"encoding":240},"X \\to Z \\leftarrow Y",[128,7060,7062,7080,7098],{"className":7061,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7063,7065,7068,7071,7074,7077],{"className":7064},[250],[128,7066],{"className":7067,"style":283},[254],[128,7069,364],{"className":7070,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7072],{"className":7073,"style":1945},[269],[128,7075,3573],{"className":7076},[1949],[128,7078],{"className":7079,"style":1945},[269],[128,7081,7083,7086,7089,7092,7095],{"className":7082},[250],[128,7084],{"className":7085,"style":283},[254],[128,7087,5935],{"className":7088,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,7090],{"className":7091,"style":1945},[269],[128,7093,6602],{"className":7094},[1949],[128,7096],{"className":7097,"style":1945},[269],[128,7099,7101,7104],{"className":7100},[250],[128,7102],{"className":7103,"style":283},[254],[128,7105,1798],{"className":7106,"style":1828},[259,1815],[64,7108,7109],{},[11,7110,7111,7114,7115,7156,7157,7233,7234,6353,7363,7391,7392,7420],{},[35,7112,7113],{},"命题 1.3（对撞偏差，Collider Bias）"," 在对撞结构下，若 ",[128,7116,7118,7135],{"className":7117,"translate":218},[217],[128,7119,7121],{"className":7120},[222],[224,7122,7123],{"xmlns":226},[228,7124,7125,7133],{},[231,7126,7127,7129,7131],{},[1790,7128,364],{},[1793,7130,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7132,1798],{},[238,7134,1801],{"encoding":240},[128,7136,7138],{"className":7137,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7139,7141,7144,7147,7150,7153],{"className":7140},[250],[128,7142],{"className":7143,"style":1811},[254],[128,7145,364],{"className":7146,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7148,1795],{"className":7149},[1820],[128,7151],{"className":7152,"style":1824},[269],[128,7154,1798],{"className":7155,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 无其他连接路径，则 ",[128,7158,7160,7185],{"className":7159,"translate":218},[217],[128,7161,7163],{"className":7162},[222],[224,7164,7165],{"xmlns":226},[228,7166,7167,7183],{},[231,7168,7169,7171,7173,7175,7177,7179,7181],{},[1790,7170,364],{},[1793,7172,1982],{},[234,7174,1985],{},[234,7176,1985],{},[234,7178,1985],{},[1793,7180,1982],{},[1790,7182,1798],{},[238,7184,1996],{"encoding":240},[128,7186,7188,7212,7224],{"className":7187,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7189,7191,7194,7197,7200,7203,7206,7209],{"className":7190},[250],[128,7192],{"className":7193,"style":2006},[254],[128,7195,364],{"className":7196,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7198],{"className":7199,"style":1945},[269],[128,7201,1982],{"className":7202},[1949],[128,7204],{"className":7205,"style":317},[269],[128,7207],{"className":7208,"style":317},[269],[128,7210],{"className":7211,"style":317},[269],[128,7213,7215,7218,7221],{"className":7214},[250],[128,7216],{"className":7217,"style":2006},[254],[128,7219,1982],{"className":7220},[1949],[128,7222],{"className":7223,"style":1945},[269],[128,7225,7227,7230],{"className":7226},[250],[128,7228],{"className":7229,"style":283},[254],[128,7231,1798],{"className":7232,"style":1828},[259,1815],"（边际独立）；但 ",[128,7235,7237,7267],{"className":7236,"translate":218},[217],[128,7238,7240],{"className":7239},[222],[224,7241,7242],{"xmlns":226},[228,7243,7244,7264],{},[231,7245,7246,7248,7250,7252,7254,7256,7258,7260,7262],{},[1790,7247,364],{},[1793,7249,6153],{},[234,7251,1985],{},[234,7253,1985],{},[234,7255,1985],{},[1793,7257,1982],{},[1790,7259,1798],{},[1793,7261,1916],{},[1790,7263,5935],{},[238,7265,7266],{"encoding":240},"X \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid Z",[128,7268,7270,7324,7336,7354],{"className":7269,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7271,7273,7276,7279,7282,7309,7312,7315,7318,7321],{"className":7272},[250],[128,7274],{"className":7275,"style":6176},[254],[128,7277,364],{"className":7278,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7280],{"className":7281,"style":1945},[269],[128,7283,7285],{"className":7284},[1949],[128,7286,7288],{"className":7287},[259,6189],[128,7289,7291],{"className":7290},[6193],[128,7292,7294,7297,7306],{"className":7293},[6197],[128,7295],{"className":7296,"style":6176},[254],[128,7298,7300],{"className":7299},[6204],[128,7301,7303],{"className":7302},[259],[128,7304,6211],{"className":7305},[1949],[128,7307],{"className":7308},[6215],[128,7310],{"className":7311},[269,6219],[128,7313,1982],{"className":7314},[1949],[128,7316],{"className":7317,"style":317},[269],[128,7319],{"className":7320,"style":317},[269],[128,7322],{"className":7323,"style":317},[269],[128,7325,7327,7330,7333],{"className":7326},[250],[128,7328],{"className":7329,"style":2006},[254],[128,7331,1982],{"className":7332},[1949],[128,7334],{"className":7335,"style":1945},[269],[128,7337,7339,7342,7345,7348,7351],{"className":7338},[250],[128,7340],{"className":7341,"style":1870},[254],[128,7343,1798],{"className":7344,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,7346],{"className":7347,"style":1945},[269],[128,7349,1916],{"className":7350},[1949],[128,7352],{"className":7353,"style":1945},[269],[128,7355,7357,7360],{"className":7356},[250],[128,7358],{"className":7359,"style":283},[254],[128,7361,5935],{"className":7362,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,7364,7366,7379],{"className":7365,"translate":218},[217],[128,7367,7369],{"className":7368},[222],[224,7370,7371],{"xmlns":226},[228,7372,7373,7377],{},[231,7374,7375],{},[1790,7376,5935],{},[238,7378,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7380,7382],{"className":7381,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7383,7385,7388],{"className":7384},[250],[128,7386],{"className":7387,"style":283},[254],[128,7389,5935],{"className":7390,"style":5964},[259,1815],"，即便只是给定 ",[128,7393,7395,7408],{"className":7394,"translate":218},[217],[128,7396,7398],{"className":7397},[222],[224,7399,7400],{"xmlns":226},[228,7401,7402,7406],{},[231,7403,7404],{},[1790,7405,5935],{},[238,7407,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7409,7411],{"className":7410,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7412,7414,7417],{"className":7413},[250],[128,7415],{"className":7416,"style":283},[254],[128,7418,5935],{"className":7419,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 的后代变量，也会产生条件不独立）。",[11,7422,7423,7425,7426,7520,7521,7574,7575,7627,7628,7720,7721,7749,7750,7778,7779,7820,7821,7849,7850,7878,7879,7907,7908,7936,7937,7965],{},[6386,7424,6388],{},"：不失一般性设 ",[128,7427,7429,7462],{"className":7428,"translate":218},[217],[128,7430,7432],{"className":7431},[222],[224,7433,7434],{"xmlns":226},[228,7435,7436,7459],{},[231,7437,7438,7440,7442,7445,7447,7449,7451,7453,7455,7457],{},[1790,7439,5935],{},[1793,7441,2344],{},[1790,7443,7444],{},"f",[1793,7446,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,7448,364],{},[1793,7450,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7452,1798],{},[1793,7454,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7456,4184],{},[1793,7458,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,7460,7461],{"encoding":240},"Z = f(X, Y, U)",[128,7463,7465,7483],{"className":7464,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7466,7468,7471,7474,7477,7480],{"className":7467},[250],[128,7469],{"className":7470,"style":283},[254],[128,7472,5935],{"className":7473,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,7475],{"className":7476,"style":1945},[269],[128,7478,2344],{"className":7479},[1949],[128,7481],{"className":7482,"style":1945},[269],[128,7484,7486,7489,7493,7496,7499,7502,7505,7508,7511,7514,7517],{"className":7485},[250],[128,7487],{"className":7488,"style":1870},[254],[128,7490,7444],{"className":7491,"style":7492},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.1076em;",[128,7494,1848],{"className":7495},[1878],[128,7497,364],{"className":7498,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7500,1795],{"className":7501},[1820],[128,7503],{"className":7504,"style":1824},[269],[128,7506,1798],{"className":7507,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,7509,1795],{"className":7510},[1820],[128,7512],{"className":7513,"style":1824},[269],[128,7515,4184],{"className":7516,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,7518,1857],{"className":7519},[1894],"。给定 ",[128,7522,7524,7543],{"className":7523,"translate":218},[217],[128,7525,7527],{"className":7526},[222],[224,7528,7529],{"xmlns":226},[228,7530,7531,7540],{},[231,7532,7533,7535,7537],{},[1790,7534,5935],{},[1793,7536,2344],{},[1790,7538,7539],{},"z",[238,7541,7542],{"encoding":240},"Z = z",[128,7544,7546,7564],{"className":7545,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7547,7549,7552,7555,7558,7561],{"className":7548},[250],[128,7550],{"className":7551,"style":283},[254],[128,7553,5935],{"className":7554,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,7556],{"className":7557,"style":1945},[269],[128,7559,2344],{"className":7560},[1949],[128,7562],{"className":7563,"style":1945},[269],[128,7565,7567,7570],{"className":7566},[250],[128,7568],{"className":7569,"style":2377},[254],[128,7571,7539],{"className":7572,"style":7573},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.044em;"," 这一约束，相当于把 ",[128,7576,7578,7600],{"className":7577,"translate":218},[217],[128,7579,7581],{"className":7580},[222],[224,7582,7583],{"xmlns":226},[228,7584,7585,7597],{},[231,7586,7587,7589,7591,7593,7595],{},[1793,7588,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,7590,364],{},[1793,7592,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7594,1798],{},[1793,7596,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,7598,7599],{"encoding":240},"(X,Y)",[128,7601,7603],{"className":7602,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7604,7606,7609,7612,7615,7618,7621,7624],{"className":7605},[250],[128,7607],{"className":7608,"style":1870},[254],[128,7610,1848],{"className":7611},[1878],[128,7613,364],{"className":7614,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7616,1795],{"className":7617},[1820],[128,7619],{"className":7620,"style":1824},[269],[128,7622,1798],{"className":7623,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,7625,1857],{"className":7626},[1894]," 的取值限制在满足 ",[128,7629,7631,7663],{"className":7630,"translate":218},[217],[128,7632,7634],{"className":7633},[222],[224,7635,7636],{"xmlns":226},[228,7637,7638,7660],{},[231,7639,7640,7642,7644,7646,7648,7650,7652,7654,7656,7658],{},[1790,7641,7444],{},[1793,7643,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,7645,364],{},[1793,7647,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7649,1798],{},[1793,7651,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7653,4184],{},[1793,7655,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,7657,2344],{},[1790,7659,7539],{},[238,7661,7662],{"encoding":240},"f(X,Y,U)=z",[128,7664,7666,7711],{"className":7665,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7667,7669,7672,7675,7678,7681,7684,7687,7690,7693,7696,7699,7702,7705,7708],{"className":7668},[250],[128,7670],{"className":7671,"style":1870},[254],[128,7673,7444],{"className":7674,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,7676,1848],{"className":7677},[1878],[128,7679,364],{"className":7680,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7682,1795],{"className":7683},[1820],[128,7685],{"className":7686,"style":1824},[269],[128,7688,1798],{"className":7689,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,7691,1795],{"className":7692},[1820],[128,7694],{"className":7695,"style":1824},[269],[128,7697,4184],{"className":7698,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,7700,1857],{"className":7701},[1894],[128,7703],{"className":7704,"style":1945},[269],[128,7706,2344],{"className":7707},[1949],[128,7709],{"className":7710,"style":1945},[269],[128,7712,7714,7717],{"className":7713},[250],[128,7715],{"className":7716,"style":2377},[254],[128,7718,7539],{"className":7719,"style":7573},[259,1815]," 的一个子流形上。在这个子流形上，",[128,7722,7724,7737],{"className":7723,"translate":218},[217],[128,7725,7727],{"className":7726},[222],[224,7728,7729],{"xmlns":226},[228,7730,7731,7735],{},[231,7732,7733],{},[1790,7734,364],{},[238,7736,364],{"encoding":240},[128,7738,7740],{"className":7739,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7741,7743,7746],{"className":7742},[250],[128,7744],{"className":7745,"style":283},[254],[128,7747,364],{"className":7748,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的取值会反向约束 ",[128,7751,7753,7766],{"className":7752,"translate":218},[217],[128,7754,7756],{"className":7755},[222],[224,7757,7758],{"xmlns":226},[228,7759,7760,7764],{},[231,7761,7762],{},[1790,7763,1798],{},[238,7765,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,7767,7769],{"className":7768,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7770,7772,7775],{"className":7771},[250],[128,7773],{"className":7774,"style":283},[254],[128,7776,1798],{"className":7777,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的可能取值范围——即便 ",[128,7780,7782,7799],{"className":7781,"translate":218},[217],[128,7783,7785],{"className":7784},[222],[224,7786,7787],{"xmlns":226},[228,7788,7789,7797],{},[231,7790,7791,7793,7795],{},[1790,7792,364],{},[1793,7794,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,7796,1798],{},[238,7798,1801],{"encoding":240},[128,7800,7802],{"className":7801,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7803,7805,7808,7811,7814,7817],{"className":7804},[250],[128,7806],{"className":7807,"style":1811},[254],[128,7809,364],{"className":7810,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,7812,1795],{"className":7813},[1820],[128,7815],{"className":7816,"style":1824},[269],[128,7818,1798],{"className":7819,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 在无约束时相互独立，在此子流形上二者一般不再独立。这一现象与「解释消除（explaining away）」直觉一致：已知 ",[128,7822,7824,7837],{"className":7823,"translate":218},[217],[128,7825,7827],{"className":7826},[222],[224,7828,7829],{"xmlns":226},[228,7830,7831,7835],{},[231,7832,7833],{},[1790,7834,5935],{},[238,7836,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7838,7840],{"className":7839,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7841,7843,7846],{"className":7842},[250],[128,7844],{"className":7845,"style":283},[254],[128,7847,5935],{"className":7848,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 发生，若又得知 ",[128,7851,7853,7866],{"className":7852,"translate":218},[217],[128,7854,7856],{"className":7855},[222],[224,7857,7858],{"xmlns":226},[228,7859,7860,7864],{},[231,7861,7862],{},[1790,7863,364],{},[238,7865,364],{"encoding":240},[128,7867,7869],{"className":7868,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7870,7872,7875],{"className":7871},[250],[128,7873],{"className":7874,"style":283},[254],[128,7876,364],{"className":7877,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 是导致 ",[128,7880,7882,7895],{"className":7881,"translate":218},[217],[128,7883,7885],{"className":7884},[222],[224,7886,7887],{"xmlns":226},[228,7888,7889,7893],{},[231,7890,7891],{},[1790,7892,5935],{},[238,7894,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7896,7898],{"className":7897,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7899,7901,7904],{"className":7900},[250],[128,7902],{"className":7903,"style":283},[254],[128,7905,5935],{"className":7906,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 的原因，则 ",[128,7909,7911,7924],{"className":7910,"translate":218},[217],[128,7912,7914],{"className":7913},[222],[224,7915,7916],{"xmlns":226},[228,7917,7918,7922],{},[231,7919,7920],{},[1790,7921,1798],{},[238,7923,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,7925,7927],{"className":7926,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7928,7930,7933],{"className":7929},[250],[128,7931],{"className":7932,"style":283},[254],[128,7934,1798],{"className":7935,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 作为 ",[128,7938,7940,7953],{"className":7939,"translate":218},[217],[128,7941,7943],{"className":7942},[222],[224,7944,7945],{"xmlns":226},[228,7946,7947,7951],{},[231,7948,7949],{},[1790,7950,5935],{},[238,7952,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,7954,7956],{"className":7955,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,7957,7959,7962],{"className":7958},[250],[128,7960],{"className":7961,"style":283},[254],[128,7963,5935],{"className":7964,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 的另一原因的「责任」会被相应降低。",[64,7967,7968],{},[11,7969,7970,7973,7974,8051,8052,8055,8056,8059],{},[35,7971,7972],{},"例 1.4"," 才华（Talent）→ 明星身份（Celebrity）← 美貌（Beauty）。设才华与美貌在总体人群中独立同分布，互不相关。若将研究样本限定为「已成为明星的人」（即条件化 ",[128,7975,7977,8000],{"className":7976,"translate":218},[217],[128,7978,7980],{"className":7979},[222],[224,7981,7982],{"xmlns":226},[228,7983,7984,7997],{},[231,7985,7986,7988,7990,7993,7995],{},[1790,7987,5935],{},[1793,7989,2344],{},[234,7991,7992],{},"Celebrity",[1793,7994,2344],{},[3152,7996,3154],{},[238,7998,7999],{"encoding":240},"Z=\\text{Celebrity}=1",[128,8001,8003,8021,8042],{"className":8002,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8004,8006,8009,8012,8015,8018],{"className":8005},[250],[128,8007],{"className":8008,"style":283},[254],[128,8010,5935],{"className":8011,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8013],{"className":8014,"style":1945},[269],[128,8016,2344],{"className":8017},[1949],[128,8019],{"className":8020,"style":1945},[269],[128,8022,8024,8027,8033,8036,8039],{"className":8023},[250],[128,8025],{"className":8026,"style":6176},[254],[128,8028,8030],{"className":8029},[259,260],[128,8031,7992],{"className":8032},[259],[128,8034],{"className":8035,"style":1945},[269],[128,8037,2344],{"className":8038},[1949],[128,8040],{"className":8041,"style":1945},[269],[128,8043,8045,8048],{"className":8044},[250],[128,8046],{"className":8047,"style":4875},[254],[128,8049,3154],{"className":8050},[259],"），则在这一子群体中，才华与美貌会呈现出",[35,8053,8054],{},"负相关","——因为一个才华一般的人若能成为明星，多半是靠美貌弥补，反之亦然。这一负相关是样本选择造成的统计假象，并非二者之间存在任何真实的因果联系。这类偏差在流行病学中亦称",[35,8057,8058],{},"伯克森悖论（Berkson's Paradox）","，也是众多观测性研究中「选择偏差」的图论根源。",[3038,8061,8063],{"id":8062},"_13-d-分离路径阻断的一般判据","1.3 d-分离：路径阻断的一般判据",[11,8065,8066],{},"三种基本结构可统一为一个可在任意复杂 DAG 上递归判定的一般规则。",[64,8068,8069,8332,8551],{},[11,8070,8071,8074,8075,8126,8127,3760,8156,2173,8184,8212,8213,8241,8242,1148,8270,8273,8274,8302,8303,8331],{},[35,8072,8073],{},"定义 1.5（路径的阻断）"," 设 ",[128,8076,8078,8096],{"className":8077,"translate":218},[217],[128,8079,8081],{"className":8080},[222],[224,8082,8083],{"xmlns":226},[228,8084,8085,8093],{},[231,8086,8087,8089,8091],{},[1790,8088,5505],{},[1793,8090,3326],{},[1790,8092,3071],{},[238,8094,8095],{"encoding":240},"S \\subseteq V",[128,8097,8099,8117],{"className":8098,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8100,8102,8105,8108,8111,8114],{"className":8101},[250],[128,8103],{"className":8104,"style":3346},[254],[128,8106,5505],{"className":8107,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,8109],{"className":8110,"style":1945},[269],[128,8112,3326],{"className":8113},[1949],[128,8115],{"className":8116,"style":1945},[269],[128,8118,8120,8123],{"className":8119},[250],[128,8121],{"className":8122,"style":283},[254],[128,8124,3071],{"className":8125,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 为一组已条件化的节点集合，",[128,8128,8130,8143],{"className":8129,"translate":218},[217],[128,8131,8133],{"className":8132},[222],[224,8134,8135],{"xmlns":226},[228,8136,8137,8141],{},[231,8138,8139],{},[1790,8140,11],{},[238,8142,11],{"encoding":240},[128,8144,8146],{"className":8145,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8147,8149,8153],{"className":8148},[250],[128,8150],{"className":8151,"style":8152},[254],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[128,8154,11],{"className":8155},[259,1815],[128,8157,8159,8172],{"className":8158,"translate":218},[217],[128,8160,8162],{"className":8161},[222],[224,8163,8164],{"xmlns":226},[228,8165,8166,8170],{},[231,8167,8168],{},[1790,8169,364],{},[238,8171,364],{"encoding":240},[128,8173,8175],{"className":8174,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8176,8178,8181],{"className":8177},[250],[128,8179],{"className":8180,"style":283},[254],[128,8182,364],{"className":8183,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,8185,8187,8200],{"className":8186,"translate":218},[217],[128,8188,8190],{"className":8189},[222],[224,8191,8192],{"xmlns":226},[228,8193,8194,8198],{},[231,8195,8196],{},[1790,8197,1798],{},[238,8199,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,8201,8203],{"className":8202,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8204,8206,8209],{"className":8205},[250],[128,8207],{"className":8208,"style":283},[254],[128,8210,1798],{"className":8211,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间的一条路径。称 ",[128,8214,8216,8229],{"className":8215,"translate":218},[217],[128,8217,8219],{"className":8218},[222],[224,8220,8221],{"xmlns":226},[228,8222,8223,8227],{},[231,8224,8225],{},[1790,8226,11],{},[238,8228,11],{"encoding":240},[128,8230,8232],{"className":8231,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8233,8235,8238],{"className":8234},[250],[128,8236],{"className":8237,"style":8152},[254],[128,8239,11],{"className":8240},[259,1815]," 被 ",[128,8243,8245,8258],{"className":8244,"translate":218},[217],[128,8246,8248],{"className":8247},[222],[224,8249,8250],{"xmlns":226},[228,8251,8252,8256],{},[231,8253,8254],{},[1790,8255,5505],{},[238,8257,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,8259,8261],{"className":8260,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8262,8264,8267],{"className":8263},[250],[128,8265],{"className":8266,"style":283},[254],[128,8268,5505],{"className":8269,"style":3123},[259,1815],[35,8271,8272],{},"阻断","，当且仅当 ",[128,8275,8277,8290],{"className":8276,"translate":218},[217],[128,8278,8280],{"className":8279},[222],[224,8281,8282],{"xmlns":226},[228,8283,8284,8288],{},[231,8285,8286],{},[1790,8287,11],{},[238,8289,11],{"encoding":240},[128,8291,8293],{"className":8292,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8294,8296,8299],{"className":8295},[250],[128,8297],{"className":8298,"style":8152},[254],[128,8300,11],{"className":8301},[259,1815]," 上至少存在一个节点 ",[128,8304,8306,8319],{"className":8305,"translate":218},[217],[128,8307,8309],{"className":8308},[222],[224,8310,8311],{"xmlns":226},[228,8312,8313,8317],{},[231,8314,8315],{},[1790,8316,5935],{},[238,8318,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,8320,8322],{"className":8321,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8323,8325,8328],{"className":8324},[250],[128,8326],{"className":8327,"style":283},[254],[128,8329,5935],{"className":8330,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 满足下列条件之一：",[11,8333,8334,8335,8387,8388,8416,8417,8445,8446,8498,8499,8550],{},"(i) ",[128,8336,8338,8356],{"className":8337,"translate":218},[217],[128,8339,8341],{"className":8340},[222],[224,8342,8343],{"xmlns":226},[228,8344,8345,8353],{},[231,8346,8347,8349,8351],{},[1790,8348,5935],{},[1793,8350,3423],{},[1790,8352,5505],{},[238,8354,8355],{"encoding":240},"Z \\in S",[128,8357,8359,8378],{"className":8358,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8360,8362,8366,8369,8372,8375],{"className":8361},[250],[128,8363],{"className":8364,"style":8365},[254],"height:0.7224em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[128,8367,5935],{"className":8368,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8370],{"className":8371,"style":1945},[269],[128,8373,3423],{"className":8374},[1949],[128,8376],{"className":8377,"style":1945},[269],[128,8379,8381,8384],{"className":8380},[250],[128,8382],{"className":8383,"style":283},[254],[128,8385,5505],{"className":8386,"style":3123},[259,1815],"，且 ",[128,8389,8391,8404],{"className":8390,"translate":218},[217],[128,8392,8394],{"className":8393},[222],[224,8395,8396],{"xmlns":226},[228,8397,8398,8402],{},[231,8399,8400],{},[1790,8401,5935],{},[238,8403,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,8405,8407],{"className":8406,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8408,8410,8413],{"className":8409},[250],[128,8411],{"className":8412,"style":283},[254],[128,8414,5935],{"className":8415,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 在 ",[128,8418,8420,8433],{"className":8419,"translate":218},[217],[128,8421,8423],{"className":8422},[222],[224,8424,8425],{"xmlns":226},[228,8426,8427,8431],{},[231,8428,8429],{},[1790,8430,11],{},[238,8432,11],{"encoding":240},[128,8434,8436],{"className":8435,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8437,8439,8442],{"className":8438},[250],[128,8440],{"className":8441,"style":8152},[254],[128,8443,11],{"className":8444},[259,1815]," 上构成链结构（",[128,8447,8449,8467],{"className":8448,"translate":218},[217],[128,8450,8452],{"className":8451},[222],[224,8453,8454],{"xmlns":226},[228,8455,8456,8464],{},[231,8457,8458,8460,8462],{},[1793,8459,3573],{},[1790,8461,5935],{},[1793,8463,3573],{},[238,8465,8466],{"encoding":240},"\\to Z \\to",[128,8468,8470,8483],{"className":8469,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8471,8473,8477,8480],{"className":8472},[250],[128,8474],{"className":8475,"style":8476},[254],"height:0.3669em;",[128,8478,3573],{"className":8479},[1949],[128,8481],{"className":8482,"style":1945},[269],[128,8484,8486,8489,8492,8495],{"className":8485},[250],[128,8487],{"className":8488,"style":283},[254],[128,8490,5935],{"className":8491,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8493],{"className":8494,"style":1945},[269],[128,8496,3573],{"className":8497},[1949],"）或叉结构（",[128,8500,8502,8520],{"className":8501,"translate":218},[217],[128,8503,8505],{"className":8504},[222],[224,8506,8507],{"xmlns":226},[228,8508,8509,8517],{},[231,8510,8511,8513,8515],{},[1793,8512,6602],{},[1790,8514,5935],{},[1793,8516,3573],{},[238,8518,8519],{"encoding":240},"\\leftarrow Z \\to",[128,8521,8523,8535],{"className":8522,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8524,8526,8529,8532],{"className":8525},[250],[128,8527],{"className":8528,"style":8476},[254],[128,8530,6602],{"className":8531},[1949],[128,8533],{"className":8534,"style":1945},[269],[128,8536,8538,8541,8544,8547],{"className":8537},[250],[128,8539],{"className":8540,"style":283},[254],[128,8542,5935],{"className":8543,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8545],{"className":8546,"style":1945},[269],[128,8548,3573],{"className":8549},[1949],"）；",[11,8552,8553,8554,8416,8582,8610,8611,8662,8663,8691,8692,893],{},"(ii) ",[128,8555,8557,8570],{"className":8556,"translate":218},[217],[128,8558,8560],{"className":8559},[222],[224,8561,8562],{"xmlns":226},[228,8563,8564,8568],{},[231,8565,8566],{},[1790,8567,5935],{},[238,8569,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,8571,8573],{"className":8572,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8574,8576,8579],{"className":8575},[250],[128,8577],{"className":8578,"style":283},[254],[128,8580,5935],{"className":8581,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8583,8585,8598],{"className":8584,"translate":218},[217],[128,8586,8588],{"className":8587},[222],[224,8589,8590],{"xmlns":226},[228,8591,8592,8596],{},[231,8593,8594],{},[1790,8595,11],{},[238,8597,11],{"encoding":240},[128,8599,8601],{"className":8600,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8602,8604,8607],{"className":8603},[250],[128,8605],{"className":8606,"style":8152},[254],[128,8608,11],{"className":8609},[259,1815]," 上构成对撞结构（",[128,8612,8614,8632],{"className":8613,"translate":218},[217],[128,8615,8617],{"className":8616},[222],[224,8618,8619],{"xmlns":226},[228,8620,8621,8629],{},[231,8622,8623,8625,8627],{},[1793,8624,3573],{},[1790,8626,5935],{},[1793,8628,6602],{},[238,8630,8631],{"encoding":240},"\\to Z \\leftarrow",[128,8633,8635,8647],{"className":8634,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8636,8638,8641,8644],{"className":8637},[250],[128,8639],{"className":8640,"style":8476},[254],[128,8642,3573],{"className":8643},[1949],[128,8645],{"className":8646,"style":1945},[269],[128,8648,8650,8653,8656,8659],{"className":8649},[250],[128,8651],{"className":8652,"style":283},[254],[128,8654,5935],{"className":8655,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,8657],{"className":8658,"style":1945},[269],[128,8660,6602],{"className":8661},[1949],"），且 ",[128,8664,8666,8679],{"className":8665,"translate":218},[217],[128,8667,8669],{"className":8668},[222],[224,8670,8671],{"xmlns":226},[228,8672,8673,8677],{},[231,8674,8675],{},[1790,8676,5935],{},[238,8678,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,8680,8682],{"className":8681,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8683,8685,8688],{"className":8684},[250],[128,8686],{"className":8687,"style":283},[254],[128,8689,5935],{"className":8690,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 本身及其**全部后代（descendants）**都不属于 ",[128,8693,8695,8708],{"className":8694,"translate":218},[217],[128,8696,8698],{"className":8697},[222],[224,8699,8700],{"xmlns":226},[228,8701,8702,8706],{},[231,8703,8704],{},[1790,8705,5505],{},[238,8707,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,8709,8711],{"className":8710,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8712,8714,8717],{"className":8713},[250],[128,8715],{"className":8716,"style":283},[254],[128,8718,5505],{"className":8719,"style":3123},[259,1815],[64,8721,8722],{},[11,8723,8724,8727,8728,2173,8756,8784,8785,8788,8789,8817,8818,2173,8846,8874,8875,8903,8904,3552,8907,893],{},[35,8725,8726],{},"定义 1.6（d-分离）"," 若 ",[128,8729,8731,8744],{"className":8730,"translate":218},[217],[128,8732,8734],{"className":8733},[222],[224,8735,8736],{"xmlns":226},[228,8737,8738,8742],{},[231,8739,8740],{},[1790,8741,364],{},[238,8743,364],{"encoding":240},[128,8745,8747],{"className":8746,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8748,8750,8753],{"className":8749},[250],[128,8751],{"className":8752,"style":283},[254],[128,8754,364],{"className":8755,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,8757,8759,8772],{"className":8758,"translate":218},[217],[128,8760,8762],{"className":8761},[222],[224,8763,8764],{"xmlns":226},[228,8765,8766,8770],{},[231,8767,8768],{},[1790,8769,1798],{},[238,8771,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,8773,8775],{"className":8774,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8776,8778,8781],{"className":8777},[250],[128,8779],{"className":8780,"style":283},[254],[128,8782,1798],{"className":8783,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间的",[35,8786,8787],{},"每一条","路径都被 ",[128,8790,8792,8805],{"className":8791,"translate":218},[217],[128,8793,8795],{"className":8794},[222],[224,8796,8797],{"xmlns":226},[228,8798,8799,8803],{},[231,8800,8801],{},[1790,8802,5505],{},[238,8804,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,8806,8808],{"className":8807,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8809,8811,8814],{"className":8810},[250],[128,8812],{"className":8813,"style":283},[254],[128,8815,5505],{"className":8816,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 阻断，则称 ",[128,8819,8821,8834],{"className":8820,"translate":218},[217],[128,8822,8824],{"className":8823},[222],[224,8825,8826],{"xmlns":226},[228,8827,8828,8832],{},[231,8829,8830],{},[1790,8831,364],{},[238,8833,364],{"encoding":240},[128,8835,8837],{"className":8836,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8838,8840,8843],{"className":8839},[250],[128,8841],{"className":8842,"style":283},[254],[128,8844,364],{"className":8845,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,8847,8849,8862],{"className":8848,"translate":218},[217],[128,8850,8852],{"className":8851},[222],[224,8853,8854],{"xmlns":226},[228,8855,8856,8860],{},[231,8857,8858],{},[1790,8859,1798],{},[238,8861,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,8863,8865],{"className":8864,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8866,8868,8871],{"className":8867},[250],[128,8869],{"className":8870,"style":283},[254],[128,8872,1798],{"className":8873,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 在给定 ",[128,8876,8878,8891],{"className":8877,"translate":218},[217],[128,8879,8881],{"className":8880},[222],[224,8882,8883],{"xmlns":226},[228,8884,8885,8889],{},[231,8886,8887],{},[1790,8888,5505],{},[238,8890,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,8892,8894],{"className":8893,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8895,8897,8900],{"className":8896},[250],[128,8898],{"className":8899,"style":283},[254],[128,8901,5505],{"className":8902,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 时 ",[35,8905,8906],{},"d-分离",[128,8908,8910,8952],{"className":8909,"translate":218},[217],[128,8911,8913],{"className":8912},[222],[224,8914,8915],{"xmlns":226},[228,8916,8917,8949],{},[231,8918,8919,8921,8923,8925,8927,8929,8931,8937,8939,8941,8943],{},[1793,8920,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,8922,364],{},[1793,8924,1982],{},[234,8926,1985],{},[234,8928,1985],{},[234,8930,1985],{},[2605,8932,8933,8935],{},[1793,8934,1982],{},[1790,8936,2438],{},[1790,8938,1798],{},[1793,8940,1916],{},[1790,8942,5505],{},[2605,8944,8945,8947],{},[1793,8946,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,8948,3064],{},[238,8950,8951],{"encoding":240},"(X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp_d Y \\mid S)_G",[128,8953,8955,8982,9033,9051],{"className":8954,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,8956,8958,8961,8964,8967,8970,8973,8976,8979],{"className":8957},[250],[128,8959],{"className":8960,"style":1870},[254],[128,8962,1848],{"className":8963},[1878],[128,8965,364],{"className":8966,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,8968],{"className":8969,"style":1945},[269],[128,8971,1982],{"className":8972},[1949],[128,8974],{"className":8975,"style":317},[269],[128,8977],{"className":8978,"style":317},[269],[128,8980],{"className":8981,"style":317},[269],[128,8983,8985,8989,9030],{"className":8984},[250],[128,8986],{"className":8987,"style":8988},[254],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[128,8990,8992,8995],{"className":8991},[1949],[128,8993,1982],{"className":8994},[1949],[128,8996,8998],{"className":8997},[2660],[128,8999,9001,9022],{"className":9000},[274,321],[128,9002,9004,9019],{"className":9003},[278],[128,9005,9007],{"className":9006,"style":4414},[282],[128,9008,9010,9013],{"style":9009},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,9011],{"className":9012,"style":291},[290],[128,9014,9016],{"className":9015},[299,300,301,298],[128,9017,2438],{"className":9018},[259,1815,298],[128,9020,347],{"className":9021},[346],[128,9023,9025],{"className":9024},[278],[128,9026,9028],{"className":9027,"style":2692},[282],[128,9029],{},[128,9031],{"className":9032,"style":1945},[269],[128,9034,9036,9039,9042,9045,9048],{"className":9035},[250],[128,9037],{"className":9038,"style":1870},[254],[128,9040,1798],{"className":9041,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,9043],{"className":9044,"style":1945},[269],[128,9046,1916],{"className":9047},[1949],[128,9049],{"className":9050,"style":1945},[269],[128,9052,9054,9057,9060],{"className":9053},[250],[128,9055],{"className":9056,"style":1870},[254],[128,9058,5505],{"className":9059,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,9061,9063,9066],{"className":9062},[1894],[128,9064,1857],{"className":9065},[1894],[128,9067,9069],{"className":9068},[2660],[128,9070,9072,9093],{"className":9071},[274,321],[128,9073,9075,9090],{"className":9074},[278],[128,9076,9079],{"className":9077,"style":9078},[282],"height:0.3283em;",[128,9080,9081,9084],{"style":9009},[128,9082],{"className":9083,"style":291},[290],[128,9085,9087],{"className":9086},[299,300,301,298],[128,9088,3064],{"className":9089},[259,1815,298],[128,9091,347],{"className":9092},[346],[128,9094,9096],{"className":9095},[278],[128,9097,9099],{"className":9098,"style":2692},[282],[128,9100],{},[64,9102,9103],{},[11,9104,9105,9108,9109,9137,9138,9166,9167,9497,9498,9501,9502,9530,9531,9559,9560,9563,9564,9592,9593,893],{},[35,9106,9107],{},"定理 1.1（图 - 分布对应定理，Verma & Pearl, 1988）"," 设分布 ",[128,9110,9112,9125],{"className":9111,"translate":218},[217],[128,9113,9115],{"className":9114},[222],[224,9116,9117],{"xmlns":226},[228,9118,9119,9123],{},[231,9120,9121],{},[1790,9122,1844],{},[238,9124,1844],{"encoding":240},[128,9126,9128],{"className":9127,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9129,9131,9134],{"className":9130},[250],[128,9132],{"className":9133,"style":283},[254],[128,9135,1844],{"className":9136,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 由与 DAG ",[128,9139,9141,9154],{"className":9140,"translate":218},[217],[128,9142,9144],{"className":9143},[222],[224,9145,9146],{"xmlns":226},[228,9147,9148,9152],{},[231,9149,9150],{},[1790,9151,3064],{},[238,9153,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,9155,9157],{"className":9156,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9158,9160,9163],{"className":9159},[250],[128,9161],{"className":9162,"style":283},[254],[128,9164,3064],{"className":9165},[259,1815]," 相容的 SCM 生成（见第二部分马尔可夫性假设）。则：\n",[128,9168,9170,9246],{"className":9169,"translate":218},[217],[128,9171,9173],{"className":9172},[222],[224,9174,9175],{"xmlns":226},[228,9176,9177,9243],{},[231,9178,9179,9181,9183,9185,9187,9189,9191,9197,9199,9201,9203,9209,9212,9215,9217,9219,9221,9223,9225,9227,9229,9231,9233,9235,9238,9240],{},[1793,9180,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,9182,364],{},[1793,9184,1982],{},[234,9186,1985],{},[234,9188,1985],{},[234,9190,1985],{},[2605,9192,9193,9195],{},[1793,9194,1982],{},[1790,9196,2438],{},[1790,9198,1798],{},[1793,9200,1916],{},[1790,9202,5505],{},[2605,9204,9205,9207],{},[1793,9206,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,9208,3064],{},[234,9210,9211],{},"  ",[1793,9213,9214],{},"⟹",[234,9216,9211],{},[1790,9218,364],{},[1793,9220,1982],{},[234,9222,1985],{},[234,9224,1985],{},[234,9226,1985],{},[1793,9228,1982],{},[1790,9230,1798],{},[1793,9232,1916],{},[1790,9234,5505],{},[234,9236,9237],{}," 在 ",[1790,9239,1844],{},[234,9241,9242],{}," 中成立",[238,9244,9245],{"encoding":240},"(X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp_d Y \\mid S)_G \\implies X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Y \\mid S \\text{ 在 } P \\text{ 中成立}",[128,9247,9249,9276,9325,9343,9407,9431,9443,9461],{"className":9248,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9250,9252,9255,9258,9261,9264,9267,9270,9273],{"className":9251},[250],[128,9253],{"className":9254,"style":1870},[254],[128,9256,1848],{"className":9257},[1878],[128,9259,364],{"className":9260,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,9262],{"className":9263,"style":1945},[269],[128,9265,1982],{"className":9266},[1949],[128,9268],{"className":9269,"style":317},[269],[128,9271],{"className":9272,"style":317},[269],[128,9274],{"className":9275,"style":317},[269],[128,9277,9279,9282,9322],{"className":9278},[250],[128,9280],{"className":9281,"style":8988},[254],[128,9283,9285,9288],{"className":9284},[1949],[128,9286,1982],{"className":9287},[1949],[128,9289,9291],{"className":9290},[2660],[128,9292,9294,9314],{"className":9293},[274,321],[128,9295,9297,9311],{"className":9296},[278],[128,9298,9300],{"className":9299,"style":4414},[282],[128,9301,9302,9305],{"style":9009},[128,9303],{"className":9304,"style":291},[290],[128,9306,9308],{"className":9307},[299,300,301,298],[128,9309,2438],{"className":9310},[259,1815,298],[128,9312,347],{"className":9313},[346],[128,9315,9317],{"className":9316},[278],[128,9318,9320],{"className":9319,"style":2692},[282],[128,9321],{},[128,9323],{"className":9324,"style":1945},[269],[128,9326,9328,9331,9334,9337,9340],{"className":9327},[250],[128,9329],{"className":9330,"style":1870},[254],[128,9332,1798],{"className":9333,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,9335],{"className":9336,"style":1945},[269],[128,9338,1916],{"className":9339},[1949],[128,9341],{"className":9342,"style":1945},[269],[128,9344,9346,9349,9352,9392,9395,9398,9401,9404],{"className":9345},[250],[128,9347],{"className":9348,"style":1870},[254],[128,9350,5505],{"className":9351,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,9353,9355,9358],{"className":9354},[1894],[128,9356,1857],{"className":9357},[1894],[128,9359,9361],{"className":9360},[2660],[128,9362,9364,9384],{"className":9363},[274,321],[128,9365,9367,9381],{"className":9366},[278],[128,9368,9370],{"className":9369,"style":9078},[282],[128,9371,9372,9375],{"style":9009},[128,9373],{"className":9374,"style":291},[290],[128,9376,9378],{"className":9377},[299,300,301,298],[128,9379,3064],{"className":9380},[259,1815,298],[128,9382,347],{"className":9383},[346],[128,9385,9387],{"className":9386},[278],[128,9388,9390],{"className":9389,"style":2692},[282],[128,9391],{},[128,9393],{"className":9394,"style":1945},[269],[128,9396],{"className":9397,"style":1945},[269],[128,9399,9214],{"className":9400},[1949],[128,9402],{"className":9403,"style":1945},[269],[128,9405],{"className":9406,"style":1945},[269],[128,9408,9410,9413,9416,9419,9422,9425,9428],{"className":9409},[250],[128,9411],{"className":9412,"style":2006},[254],[128,9414,364],{"className":9415,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,9417],{"className":9418,"style":1945},[269],[128,9420,1982],{"className":9421},[1949],[128,9423],{"className":9424,"style":317},[269],[128,9426],{"className":9427,"style":317},[269],[128,9429],{"className":9430,"style":317},[269],[128,9432,9434,9437,9440],{"className":9433},[250],[128,9435],{"className":9436,"style":2006},[254],[128,9438,1982],{"className":9439},[1949],[128,9441],{"className":9442,"style":1945},[269],[128,9444,9446,9449,9452,9455,9458],{"className":9445},[250],[128,9447],{"className":9448,"style":1870},[254],[128,9450,1798],{"className":9451,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,9453],{"className":9454,"style":1945},[269],[128,9456,1916],{"className":9457},[1949],[128,9459],{"className":9460,"style":1945},[269],[128,9462,9464,9467,9470,9484,9487],{"className":9463},[250],[128,9465],{"className":9466,"style":283},[254],[128,9468,5505],{"className":9469,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,9471,9473,9476,9481],{"className":9472},[259,260],[128,9474,5652],{"className":9475},[259],[128,9477,9480],{"className":9478},[259,9479],"cjk_fallback","在",[128,9482,5652],{"className":9483},[259],[128,9485,1844],{"className":9486,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,9488,9490,9493],{"className":9489},[259,260],[128,9491,5652],{"className":9492},[259],[128,9494,9496],{"className":9495},[259,9479],"中成立","\n即 d-分离是概率独立性的",[35,9499,9500],{},"充分条件","。若进一步假设 ",[128,9503,9505,9518],{"className":9504,"translate":218},[217],[128,9506,9508],{"className":9507},[222],[224,9509,9510],{"xmlns":226},[228,9511,9512,9516],{},[231,9513,9514],{},[1790,9515,1844],{},[238,9517,1844],{"encoding":240},[128,9519,9521],{"className":9520,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9522,9524,9527],{"className":9523},[250],[128,9525],{"className":9526,"style":283},[254],[128,9528,1844],{"className":9529,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 相对于 ",[128,9532,9534,9547],{"className":9533,"translate":218},[217],[128,9535,9537],{"className":9536},[222],[224,9538,9539],{"xmlns":226},[228,9540,9541,9545],{},[231,9542,9543],{},[1790,9544,3064],{},[238,9546,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,9548,9550],{"className":9549,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9551,9553,9556],{"className":9552},[250],[128,9554],{"className":9555,"style":283},[254],[128,9557,3064],{"className":9558},[259,1815]," 满足",[35,9561,9562],{},"忠实性（faithfulness）","——即 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",[128,9600,9602,9615],{"className":9601,"translate":218},[217],[128,9603,9605],{"className":9604},[222],[224,9606,9607],{"xmlns":226},[228,9608,9609,9613],{},[231,9610,9611],{},[1790,9612,5935],{},[238,9614,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,9616,9618],{"className":9617,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9619,9621,9624],{"className":9620},[250],[128,9622],{"className":9623,"style":283},[254],[128,9625,5935],{"className":9626,"style":5964},[259,1815],"）能够正确地消除虚假关联；但控制对撞因子（或对撞因子的后代）却会人为",[35,9629,9630],{},"制造","虚假关联——这正是所谓「越多变量控制越严谨」这一朴素直觉在因果推断框架下失效的根本原因，实践中称为",[35,9633,9634],{},"对撞偏差引发的过度控制谬误（overcontrol bias）",[3038,9636,9638],{"id":9637},"_14-因果图的来源因果发现","1.4 因果图的来源：因果发现",[11,9640,9641],{},"定义 1.4 之后我们强调过：图中的每一条边都是不可从数据中验证的结构性假设。但一个自然的问题是——这些假设究竟从哪里来？实践中主要有四个来源：",[9643,9644,9645,9651,9766,9929],"ol",{},[2252,9646,9647,9650],{},[35,9648,9649],{},"领域知识与物理机制","：电路中的欧姆定律、燃烧过程中的氧化反应，机制本身规定了方向；",[2252,9652,9653,9656,9657,9685,9686,2107,9714,9765],{},[35,9654,9655],{},"时间先后","：若 ",[128,9658,9660,9673],{"className":9659,"translate":218},[217],[128,9661,9663],{"className":9662},[222],[224,9664,9665],{"xmlns":226},[228,9666,9667,9671],{},[231,9668,9669],{},[1790,9670,364],{},[238,9672,364],{"encoding":240},[128,9674,9676],{"className":9675,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9677,9679,9682],{"className":9678},[250],[128,9680],{"className":9681,"style":283},[254],[128,9683,364],{"className":9684,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 在时间上先于 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被排除；但反向并不自动成立，因为共同原因仍可能同时影响二者；",[2252,9767,9768,2247,9771,9842,9843,9871,9872,6417,9900,9928],{},[35,9769,9770],{},"实验干预",[128,9772,9774,9800],{"className":9773,"translate":218},[217],[128,9775,9777],{"className":9776},[222],[224,9778,9779],{"xmlns":226},[228,9780,9781,9797],{},[231,9782,9783,9785,9787,9789,9791,9793,9795],{},[1790,9784,2438],{},[1790,9786,2441],{},[1793,9788,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,9790,364],{},[1793,9792,2344],{},[1790,9794,2281],{},[1793,9796,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,9798,9799],{"encoding":240},"do(X=x)",[128,9801,9803,9830],{"className":9802,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9804,9806,9809,9812,9815,9818,9821,9824,9827],{"className":9805},[250],[128,9807],{"className":9808,"style":1870},[254],[128,9810,2438],{"className":9811},[259,1815],[128,9813,2441],{"className":9814},[259,1815],[128,9816,1848],{"className":9817},[1878],[128,9819,364],{"className":9820,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,9822],{"className":9823,"style":1945},[269],[128,9825,2344],{"className":9826},[1949],[128,9828],{"className":9829,"style":1945},[269],[128,9831,9833,9836,9839],{"className":9832},[250],[128,9834],{"className":9835,"style":1870},[254],[128,9837,2281],{"className":9838},[259,1815],[128,9840,1857],{"className":9841},[1894]," 会切断 ",[128,9844,9846,9859],{"className":9845,"translate":218},[217],[128,9847,9849],{"className":9848},[222],[224,9850,9851],{"xmlns":226},[228,9852,9853,9857],{},[231,9854,9855],{},[1790,9856,364],{},[238,9858,364],{"encoding":240},[128,9860,9862],{"className":9861,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9863,9865,9868],{"className":9864},[250],[128,9866],{"className":9867,"style":283},[254],[128,9869,364],{"className":9870,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的全部入边，直接暴露 ",[128,9873,9875,9888],{"className":9874,"translate":218},[217],[128,9876,9878],{"className":9877},[222],[224,9879,9880],{"xmlns":226},[228,9881,9882,9886],{},[231,9883,9884],{},[1790,9885,364],{},[238,9887,364],{"encoding":240},[128,9889,9891],{"className":9890,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9892,9894,9897],{"className":9893},[250],[128,9895],{"className":9896,"style":283},[254],[128,9898,364],{"className":9899,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,9901,9903,9916],{"className":9902,"translate":218},[217],[128,9904,9906],{"className":9905},[222],[224,9907,9908],{"xmlns":226},[228,9909,9910,9914],{},[231,9911,9912],{},[1790,9913,1798],{},[238,9915,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,9917,9919],{"className":9918,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9920,9922,9925],{"className":9921},[250],[128,9923],{"className":9924,"style":283},[254],[128,9926,1798],{"className":9927,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的作用方向，是最可靠的来源；",[2252,9930,9931,9934],{},[35,9932,9933],{},"因果发现算法","：在额外假设下，由观测数据自动推断图的结构。",[11,9936,9937,9938,893],{},"第 4 条值得展开，因为它常被误解为「从数据中读出因果」，而其真实含义恰恰相反——",[35,9939,9940],{},"它是关于「在何种假设下，数据中的哪些部分能够约束图」的一组定理",[11,9942,9943,9944,9947,9948,10003],{},"首先要承认一个否定性结论：",[35,9945,9946],{},"仅凭观测分布，我们至多只能确定图所属的一个马尔可夫等价类（Markov equivalence class），而非图本身","。以三个变量 ",[128,9949,9951,9973],{"className":9950,"translate":218},[217],[128,9952,9954],{"className":9953},[222],[224,9955,9956],{"xmlns":226},[228,9957,9958,9970],{},[231,9959,9960,9962,9964,9966,9968],{},[1790,9961,364],{},[1793,9963,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,9965,1798],{},[1793,9967,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,9969,5935],{},[238,9971,9972],{"encoding":240},"X, Y, Z",[128,9974,9976],{"className":9975,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,9977,9979,9982,9985,9988,9991,9994,9997,10000],{"className":9978},[250],[128,9980],{"className":9981,"style":1811},[254],[128,9983,364],{"className":9984,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,9986,1795],{"className":9987},[1820],[128,9989],{"className":9990,"style":1824},[269],[128,9992,1798],{"className":9993,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,9995,1795],{"className":9996},[1820],[128,9998],{"className":9999,"style":1824},[269],[128,10001,5935],{"className":10002,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 为例，下面三个 DAG",[118,10005,10008],{"className":10006,"code":10007,"language":260},[1443],"   X ──→ Y ──→ Z        X ←── Y ──→ Z        X ←── Y ←── Z\n",[125,10009,10007],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,10011,10012,10013,1152,10119,2173,10226,10325,10326,10399,10400,10476,10477,893],{},"所蕴含的条件独立关系完全相同：三者都蕴含 ",[128,10014,10016,10041],{"className":10015,"translate":218},[217],[128,10017,10019],{"className":10018},[222],[224,10020,10021],{"xmlns":226},[228,10022,10023,10039],{},[231,10024,10025,10027,10029,10031,10033,10035,10037],{},[1790,10026,364],{},[1793,10028,6153],{},[234,10030,1985],{},[234,10032,1985],{},[234,10034,1985],{},[1793,10036,1982],{},[1790,10038,1798],{},[238,10040,6166],{"encoding":240},[128,10042,10044,10098,10110],{"className":10043,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10045,10047,10050,10053,10056,10083,10086,10089,10092,10095],{"className":10046},[250],[128,10048],{"className":10049,"style":6176},[254],[128,10051,364],{"className":10052,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10054],{"className":10055,"style":1945},[269],[128,10057,10059],{"className":10058},[1949],[128,10060,10062],{"className":10061},[259,6189],[128,10063,10065],{"className":10064},[6193],[128,10066,10068,10071,10080],{"className":10067},[6197],[128,10069],{"className":10070,"style":6176},[254],[128,10072,10074],{"className":10073},[6204],[128,10075,10077],{"className":10076},[259],[128,10078,6211],{"className":10079},[1949],[128,10081],{"className":10082},[6215],[128,10084],{"className":10085},[269,6219],[128,10087,1982],{"className":10088},[1949],[128,10090],{"className":10091,"style":317},[269],[128,10093],{"className":10094,"style":317},[269],[128,10096],{"className":10097,"style":317},[269],[128,10099,10101,10104,10107],{"className":10100},[250],[128,10102],{"className":10103,"style":2006},[254],[128,10105,1982],{"className":10106},[1949],[128,10108],{"className":10109,"style":1945},[269],[128,10111,10113,10116],{"className":10112},[250],[128,10114],{"className":10115,"style":283},[254],[128,10117,1798],{"className":10118,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10120,10122,10148],{"className":10121,"translate":218},[217],[128,10123,10125],{"className":10124},[222],[224,10126,10127],{"xmlns":226},[228,10128,10129,10145],{},[231,10130,10131,10133,10135,10137,10139,10141,10143],{},[1790,10132,1798],{},[1793,10134,6153],{},[234,10136,1985],{},[234,10138,1985],{},[234,10140,1985],{},[1793,10142,1982],{},[1790,10144,5935],{},[238,10146,10147],{"encoding":240},"Y \\not\\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z",[128,10149,10151,10205,10217],{"className":10150,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10152,10154,10157,10160,10163,10190,10193,10196,10199,10202],{"className":10153},[250],[128,10155],{"className":10156,"style":6176},[254],[128,10158,1798],{"className":10159,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10161],{"className":10162,"style":1945},[269],[128,10164,10166],{"className":10165},[1949],[128,10167,10169],{"className":10168},[259,6189],[128,10170,10172],{"className":10171},[6193],[128,10173,10175,10178,10187],{"className":10174},[6197],[128,10176],{"className":10177,"style":6176},[254],[128,10179,10181],{"className":10180},[6204],[128,10182,10184],{"className":10183},[259],[128,10185,6211],{"className":10186},[1949],[128,10188],{"className":10189},[6215],[128,10191],{"className":10192},[269,6219],[128,10194,1982],{"className":10195},[1949],[128,10197],{"className":10198,"style":317},[269],[128,10200],{"className":10201,"style":317},[269],[128,10203],{"className":10204,"style":317},[269],[128,10206,10208,10211,10214],{"className":10207},[250],[128,10209],{"className":10210,"style":2006},[254],[128,10212,1982],{"className":10213},[1949],[128,10215],{"className":10216,"style":1945},[269],[128,10218,10220,10223],{"className":10219},[250],[128,10221],{"className":10222,"style":283},[254],[128,10224,5935],{"className":10225,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,10227,10229,10259],{"className":10228,"translate":218},[217],[128,10230,10232],{"className":10231},[222],[224,10233,10234],{"xmlns":226},[228,10235,10236,10256],{},[231,10237,10238,10240,10242,10244,10246,10248,10250,10252,10254],{},[1790,10239,364],{},[1793,10241,1982],{},[234,10243,1985],{},[234,10245,1985],{},[234,10247,1985],{},[1793,10249,1982],{},[1790,10251,5935],{},[1793,10253,1916],{},[1790,10255,1798],{},[238,10257,10258],{"encoding":240},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid Y",[128,10260,10262,10286,10298,10316],{"className":10261,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10263,10265,10268,10271,10274,10277,10280,10283],{"className":10264},[250],[128,10266],{"className":10267,"style":2006},[254],[128,10269,364],{"className":10270,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10272],{"className":10273,"style":1945},[269],[128,10275,1982],{"className":10276},[1949],[128,10278],{"className":10279,"style":317},[269],[128,10281],{"className":10282,"style":317},[269],[128,10284],{"className":10285,"style":317},[269],[128,10287,10289,10292,10295],{"className":10288},[250],[128,10290],{"className":10291,"style":2006},[254],[128,10293,1982],{"className":10294},[1949],[128,10296],{"className":10297,"style":1945},[269],[128,10299,10301,10304,10307,10310,10313],{"className":10300},[250],[128,10302],{"className":10303,"style":1870},[254],[128,10305,5935],{"className":10306,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,10308],{"className":10309,"style":1945},[269],[128,10311,1916],{"className":10312},[1949],[128,10314],{"className":10315,"style":1945},[269],[128,10317,10319,10322],{"className":10318},[250],[128,10320],{"className":10321,"style":283},[254],[128,10323,1798],{"className":10324,"style":1828},[259,1815],"，因此在任何与之相容的分布下，三者产生的数据在统计上无法区分。而第四个图，即对撞结构 ",[128,10327,10329,10351],{"className":10328,"translate":218},[217],[128,10330,10332],{"className":10331},[222],[224,10333,10334],{"xmlns":226},[228,10335,10336,10348],{},[231,10337,10338,10340,10342,10344,10346],{},[1790,10339,364],{},[1793,10341,3573],{},[1790,10343,1798],{},[1793,10345,6602],{},[1790,10347,5935],{},[238,10349,10350],{"encoding":240},"X \\to Y \\leftarrow Z",[128,10352,10354,10372,10390],{"className":10353,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10355,10357,10360,10363,10366,10369],{"className":10356},[250],[128,10358],{"className":10359,"style":283},[254],[128,10361,364],{"className":10362,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10364],{"className":10365,"style":1945},[269],[128,10367,3573],{"className":10368},[1949],[128,10370],{"className":10371,"style":1945},[269],[128,10373,10375,10378,10381,10384,10387],{"className":10374},[250],[128,10376],{"className":10377,"style":283},[254],[128,10379,1798],{"className":10380,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10382],{"className":10383,"style":1945},[269],[128,10385,6602],{"className":10386},[1949],[128,10388],{"className":10389,"style":1945},[269],[128,10391,10393,10396],{"className":10392},[250],[128,10394],{"className":10395,"style":283},[254],[128,10397,5935],{"className":10398,"style":5964},[259,1815],"，蕴含的是边际独立 ",[128,10401,10403,10428],{"className":10402,"translate":218},[217],[128,10404,10406],{"className":10405},[222],[224,10407,10408],{"xmlns":226},[228,10409,10410,10426],{},[231,10411,10412,10414,10416,10418,10420,10422,10424],{},[1790,10413,364],{},[1793,10415,1982],{},[234,10417,1985],{},[234,10419,1985],{},[234,10421,1985],{},[1793,10423,1982],{},[1790,10425,1798],{},[238,10427,1996],{"encoding":240},[128,10429,10431,10455,10467],{"className":10430,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10432,10434,10437,10440,10443,10446,10449,10452],{"className":10433},[250],[128,10435],{"className":10436,"style":2006},[254],[128,10438,364],{"className":10439,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10441],{"className":10442,"style":1945},[269],[128,10444,1982],{"className":10445},[1949],[128,10447],{"className":10448,"style":317},[269],[128,10450],{"className":10451,"style":317},[269],[128,10453],{"className":10454,"style":317},[269],[128,10456,10458,10461,10464],{"className":10457},[250],[128,10459],{"className":10460,"style":2006},[254],[128,10462,1982],{"className":10463},[1949],[128,10465],{"className":10466,"style":1945},[269],[128,10468,10470,10473],{"className":10469},[250],[128,10471],{"className":10472,"style":283},[254],[128,10474,1798],{"className":10475,"style":1828},[259,1815],"，与前三个不同，因此",[35,10478,10479],{},"它可以被数据认出来",[11,10481,10482,10483,10486,10487,893],{},"这一观察可以推广为一个一般结论：",[35,10484,10485],{},"观测分布唯一确定的是图的骨架（skeleton，忽略方向的边集）以及所有的对撞结构（v-结构），其余边的方向原则上不可识别","。这解释了为什么因果发现算法的输出往往不是一个 DAG，而是一张带有部分无向边的",[35,10488,10489],{},"本质图（CPDAG，亦称 pattern）",[11,10491,10492],{},"要在此基础上进一步定向，必须引入超出分布本身的假设，主要有三条路线：",[2249,10494,10495,10554,10560],{},[2252,10496,10497,10500,10501,10553],{},[35,10498,10499],{},"约束式方法（constraint-based）","：以忠实性假设为前提，反复检验条件独立关系并据此定向，代表算法为 PC。若允许存在未观测的混杂变量，则须改用 FCI，其输出（PAG）以双向边 ",[128,10502,10504,10523],{"className":10503,"translate":218},[217],[128,10505,10507],{"className":10506},[222],[224,10508,10509],{"xmlns":226},[228,10510,10511,10520],{},[231,10512,10513,10515,10518],{},[1790,10514,364],{},[1793,10516,10517],{},"↔",[1790,10519,1798],{},[238,10521,10522],{"encoding":240},"X \\leftrightarrow Y",[128,10524,10526,10544],{"className":10525,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10527,10529,10532,10535,10538,10541],{"className":10528},[250],[128,10530],{"className":10531,"style":283},[254],[128,10533,364],{"className":10534,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10536],{"className":10537,"style":1945},[269],[128,10539,10517],{"className":10540},[1949],[128,10542],{"className":10543,"style":1945},[269],[128,10545,10547,10550],{"className":10546},[250],[128,10548],{"className":10549,"style":283},[254],[128,10551,1798],{"className":10552,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 显式标示「二者之间存在未观测的共同原因」。",[2252,10555,10556,10559],{},[35,10557,10558],{},"评分式方法（score-based）","：为每个 DAG 或等价类定义评分（如 BIC、贝叶斯后验），在等价类空间上做搜索，代表算法为 GES。它与约束式方法一样，仍然只能恢复到马尔可夫等价类。",[2252,10561,10562,10565,10566,4824,10658,10735,10736,10787,10788,10838,10839,10842,10843,10871],{},[35,10563,10564],{},"函数式方法（functional \u002F additive noise）","：假设结构方程取加性噪声形式 ",[128,10567,10569,10600],{"className":10568,"translate":218},[217],[128,10570,10572],{"className":10571},[222],[224,10573,10574],{"xmlns":226},[228,10575,10576,10597],{},[231,10577,10578,10580,10583,10585,10587,10589,10591,10593,10595],{},[1790,10579,1798],{},[1793,10581,10582],{},":",[1793,10584,2344],{},[1790,10586,7444],{},[1793,10588,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,10590,364],{},[1793,10592,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,10594,4620],{},[1790,10596,4184],{},[238,10598,10599],{"encoding":240},"Y := f(X) + U",[128,10601,10603,10622,10649],{"className":10602,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10604,10606,10609,10612,10615,10619],{"className":10605},[250],[128,10607],{"className":10608,"style":283},[254],[128,10610,1798],{"className":10611,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10613],{"className":10614,"style":1945},[269],[128,10616,10618],{"className":10617},[1949],":=",[128,10620],{"className":10621,"style":1945},[269],[128,10623,10625,10628,10631,10634,10637,10640,10643,10646],{"className":10624},[250],[128,10626],{"className":10627,"style":1870},[254],[128,10629,7444],{"className":10630,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,10632,1848],{"className":10633},[1878],[128,10635,364],{"className":10636,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10638,1857],{"className":10639},[1894],[128,10641],{"className":10642,"style":1828},[269],[128,10644,4620],{"className":10645},[3375],[128,10647],{"className":10648,"style":1828},[269],[128,10650,10652,10655],{"className":10651},[250],[128,10653],{"className":10654,"style":283},[254],[128,10656,4184],{"className":10657,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,10659,10661,10687],{"className":10660,"translate":218},[217],[128,10662,10664],{"className":10663},[222],[224,10665,10666],{"xmlns":226},[228,10667,10668,10684],{},[231,10669,10670,10672,10674,10676,10678,10680,10682],{},[1790,10671,364],{},[1793,10673,1982],{},[234,10675,1985],{},[234,10677,1985],{},[234,10679,1985],{},[1793,10681,1982],{},[1790,10683,4184],{},[238,10685,10686],{"encoding":240},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp U",[128,10688,10690,10714,10726],{"className":10689,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10691,10693,10696,10699,10702,10705,10708,10711],{"className":10692},[250],[128,10694],{"className":10695,"style":2006},[254],[128,10697,364],{"className":10698,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10700],{"className":10701,"style":1945},[269],[128,10703,1982],{"className":10704},[1949],[128,10706],{"className":10707,"style":317},[269],[128,10709],{"className":10710,"style":317},[269],[128,10712],{"className":10713,"style":317},[269],[128,10715,10717,10720,10723],{"className":10716},[250],[128,10718],{"className":10719,"style":2006},[254],[128,10721,1982],{"className":10722},[1949],[128,10724],{"className":10725,"style":1945},[269],[128,10727,10729,10732],{"className":10728},[250],[128,10730],{"className":10731,"style":283},[254],[128,10733,4184],{"className":10734,"style":4296},[259,1815],"。此时「",[128,10737,10739,10757],{"className":10738,"translate":218},[217],[128,10740,10742],{"className":10741},[222],[224,10743,10744],{"xmlns":226},[228,10745,10746,10754],{},[231,10747,10748,10750,10752],{},[1790,10749,364],{},[1793,10751,3573],{},[1790,10753,1798],{},[238,10755,10756],{"encoding":240},"X \\to Y",[128,10758,10760,10778],{"className":10759,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10761,10763,10766,10769,10772,10775],{"className":10762},[250],[128,10764],{"className":10765,"style":283},[254],[128,10767,364],{"className":10768,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10770],{"className":10771,"style":1945},[269],[128,10773,3573],{"className":10774},[1949],[128,10776],{"className":10777,"style":1945},[269],[128,10779,10781,10784],{"className":10780},[250],[128,10782],{"className":10783,"style":283},[254],[128,10785,1798],{"className":10786,"style":1828},[259,1815],"」与「",[128,10789,10791,10808],{"className":10790,"translate":218},[217],[128,10792,10794],{"className":10793},[222],[224,10795,10796],{"xmlns":226},[228,10797,10798,10806],{},[231,10799,10800,10802,10804],{},[1790,10801,1798],{},[1793,10803,3573],{},[1790,10805,364],{},[238,10807,9734],{"encoding":240},[128,10809,10811,10829],{"className":10810,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10812,10814,10817,10820,10823,10826],{"className":10813},[250],[128,10815],{"className":10816,"style":283},[254],[128,10818,1798],{"className":10819,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10821],{"className":10822,"style":1945},[269],[128,10824,3573],{"className":10825},[1949],[128,10827],{"className":10828,"style":1945},[269],[128,10830,10832,10835],{"className":10831},[250],[128,10833],{"className":10834,"style":283},[254],[128,10836,364],{"className":10837,"style":1816},[259,1815],"」两个模型一般",[35,10840,10841],{},"不能互相拟合","——反向模型的噪声项会与输入相关，除非 ",[128,10844,10846,10859],{"className":10845,"translate":218},[217],[128,10847,10849],{"className":10848},[222],[224,10850,10851],{"xmlns":226},[228,10852,10853,10857],{},[231,10854,10855],{},[1790,10856,7444],{},[238,10858,7444],{"encoding":240},[128,10860,10862],{"className":10861,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10863,10865,10868],{"className":10864},[250],[128,10866],{"className":10867,"style":6176},[254],[128,10869,7444],{"className":10870,"style":7492},[259,1815]," 为线性且噪声为高斯。于是方向变得可识别，线性非高斯情形下即得到 LiNGAM 家族算法。代价是引入了比忠实性更强的函数类假设，且判定结果对该假设相当敏感。",[11,10873,10874,10875,10878],{},"综上，因果发现把「边从哪来」这一问题从纯粹的先验判断，部分地转化为「在给定假设下可被数据检验」的问题；但",[35,10876,10877],{},"这些假设本身（忠实性、无隐变量、函数类）仍然无法从数据中获得","。这与本文的核心立场一致：数据只能在结构给定的前提下发挥作用，结构本身必须来自数据之外。",[64,10880,10881],{},[11,10882,10883,10886,10887,2173,10915,10943,10944,2173,10972,11000,11001,11078,11079,11151],{},[35,10884,10885],{},"例 1.5"," 若已知 ",[128,10888,10890,10903],{"className":10889,"translate":218},[217],[128,10891,10893],{"className":10892},[222],[224,10894,10895],{"xmlns":226},[228,10896,10897,10901],{},[231,10898,10899],{},[1790,10900,364],{},[238,10902,364],{"encoding":240},[128,10904,10906],{"className":10905,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10907,10909,10912],{"className":10908},[250],[128,10910],{"className":10911,"style":283},[254],[128,10913,364],{"className":10914,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,10916,10918,10931],{"className":10917,"translate":218},[217],[128,10919,10921],{"className":10920},[222],[224,10922,10923],{"xmlns":226},[228,10924,10925,10929],{},[231,10926,10927],{},[1790,10928,1798],{},[238,10930,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,10932,10934],{"className":10933,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10935,10937,10940],{"className":10936},[250],[128,10938],{"className":10939,"style":283},[254],[128,10941,1798],{"className":10942,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 依赖、",[128,10945,10947,10960],{"className":10946,"translate":218},[217],[128,10948,10950],{"className":10949},[222],[224,10951,10952],{"xmlns":226},[228,10953,10954,10958],{},[231,10955,10956],{},[1790,10957,1798],{},[238,10959,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,10961,10963],{"className":10962,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10964,10966,10969],{"className":10965},[250],[128,10967],{"className":10968,"style":283},[254],[128,10970,1798],{"className":10971,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,10973,10975,10988],{"className":10974,"translate":218},[217],[128,10976,10978],{"className":10977},[222],[224,10979,10980],{"xmlns":226},[228,10981,10982,10986],{},[231,10983,10984],{},[1790,10985,5935],{},[238,10987,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,10989,10991],{"className":10990,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,10992,10994,10997],{"className":10993},[250],[128,10995],{"className":10996,"style":283},[254],[128,10998,5935],{"className":10999,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 依赖，而又观测到 ",[128,11002,11004,11030],{"className":11003,"translate":218},[217],[128,11005,11007],{"className":11006},[222],[224,11008,11009],{"xmlns":226},[228,11010,11011,11027],{},[231,11012,11013,11015,11017,11019,11021,11023,11025],{},[1790,11014,364],{},[1793,11016,1982],{},[234,11018,1985],{},[234,11020,1985],{},[234,11022,1985],{},[1793,11024,1982],{},[1790,11026,5935],{},[238,11028,11029],{"encoding":240},"X \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z",[128,11031,11033,11057,11069],{"className":11032,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11034,11036,11039,11042,11045,11048,11051,11054],{"className":11035},[250],[128,11037],{"className":11038,"style":2006},[254],[128,11040,364],{"className":11041,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,11043],{"className":11044,"style":1945},[269],[128,11046,1982],{"className":11047},[1949],[128,11049],{"className":11050,"style":317},[269],[128,11052],{"className":11053,"style":317},[269],[128,11055],{"className":11056,"style":317},[269],[128,11058,11060,11063,11066],{"className":11059},[250],[128,11061],{"className":11062,"style":2006},[254],[128,11064,1982],{"className":11065},[1949],[128,11067],{"className":11068,"style":1945},[269],[128,11070,11072,11075],{"className":11071},[250],[128,11073],{"className":11074,"style":283},[254],[128,11076,5935],{"className":11077,"style":5964},[259,1815],"，则与之相容的三节点结构只剩下对撞 ",[128,11080,11082,11103],{"className":11081,"translate":218},[217],[128,11083,11085],{"className":11084},[222],[224,11086,11087],{"xmlns":226},[228,11088,11089,11101],{},[231,11090,11091,11093,11095,11097,11099],{},[1790,11092,364],{},[1793,11094,3573],{},[1790,11096,1798],{},[1793,11098,6602],{},[1790,11100,5935],{},[238,11102,10350],{"encoding":240},[128,11104,11106,11124,11142],{"className":11105,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11107,11109,11112,11115,11118,11121],{"className":11108},[250],[128,11110],{"className":11111,"style":283},[254],[128,11113,364],{"className":11114,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,11116],{"className":11117,"style":1945},[269],[128,11119,3573],{"className":11120},[1949],[128,11122],{"className":11123,"style":1945},[269],[128,11125,11127,11130,11133,11136,11139],{"className":11126},[250],[128,11128],{"className":11129,"style":283},[254],[128,11131,1798],{"className":11132,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,11134],{"className":11135,"style":1945},[269],[128,11137,6602],{"className":11138},[1949],[128,11140],{"className":11141,"style":1945},[269],[128,11143,11145,11148],{"className":11144},[250],[128,11146],{"className":11147,"style":283},[254],[128,11149,5935],{"className":11150,"style":5964},[259,1815],"。这是因果发现中最基本的一条定向规则，也是「共同原因」与「因果链」两族结构唯一能被数据区分开的地方。",[51,11153,11154],{"id":11154},"结构因果模型",[11,11156,11157,11158,11161],{},"因果图给出的是变量间依赖关系的",[35,11159,11160],{},"定性拓扑","，尚不包含足以计算具体数值的信息。要将因果图提升为可定量计算的生成模型，需要引入结构因果模型。",[3038,11163,11165],{"id":11164},"_21-scm-的形式化定义","2.1 SCM 的形式化定义",[64,11167,11168,11290],{},[11,11169,11170,11173,11174,11289],{},[35,11171,11172],{},"定义 2.1（结构因果模型）"," 一个结构因果模型是一个四元组\n",[128,11175,11177,11219],{"className":11176,"translate":218},[217],[128,11178,11180],{"className":11179},[222],[224,11181,11182],{"xmlns":226},[228,11183,11184,11216],{},[231,11185,11186,11189,11191,11193,11195,11197,11199,11201,11204,11206,11208,11210,11212,11214],{},[1790,11187,11188],{},"M",[1793,11190,2344],{},[1793,11192,4171],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,11194,4184],{},[1793,11196,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,11198,3071],{},[1793,11200,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,11202,11203],{},"F",[1793,11205,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,11207,1844],{},[1793,11209,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,11211,4184],{},[1793,11213,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,11215,4219],{"stretchy":1847},[238,11217,11218],{"encoding":240},"M = \\langle U, V, F, P(U) \\rangle",[128,11220,11222,11240],{"className":11221,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11223,11225,11228,11231,11234,11237],{"className":11224},[250],[128,11226],{"className":11227,"style":283},[254],[128,11229,11188],{"className":11230,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11232],{"className":11233,"style":1945},[269],[128,11235,2344],{"className":11236},[1949],[128,11238],{"className":11239,"style":1945},[269],[128,11241,11243,11246,11249,11252,11255,11258,11261,11264,11267,11270,11273,11276,11279,11282,11285],{"className":11242},[250],[128,11244],{"className":11245,"style":1870},[254],[128,11247,4171],{"className":11248},[1878],[128,11250,4184],{"className":11251,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11253,1795],{"className":11254},[1820],[128,11256],{"className":11257,"style":1824},[269],[128,11259,3071],{"className":11260,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,11262,1795],{"className":11263},[1820],[128,11265],{"className":11266,"style":1824},[269],[128,11268,11203],{"className":11269,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,11271,1795],{"className":11272},[1820],[128,11274],{"className":11275,"style":1824},[269],[128,11277,1844],{"className":11278,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,11280,1848],{"className":11281},[1878],[128,11283,4184],{"className":11284,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11286,11288],{"className":11287},[1894],")⟩","\n其中：",[2249,11291,11292,11472,11649,12700],{},[2252,11293,11294,11467,11468,11471],{},[128,11295,11297,11336],{"className":11296,"translate":218},[217],[128,11298,11300],{"className":11299},[222],[224,11301,11302],{"xmlns":226},[228,11303,11304,11333],{},[231,11305,11306,11308,11310,11312,11318,11320,11322,11324,11331],{},[1790,11307,4184],{},[1793,11309,2344],{},[1793,11311,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,11313,11314,11316],{},[1790,11315,4184],{},[3152,11317,3154],{},[1793,11319,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,11321,3159],{},[1793,11323,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,11325,11326,11328],{},[1790,11327,4184],{},[1790,11329,11330],{},"m",[1793,11332,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,11334,11335],{"encoding":240},"U = \\{U_1, \\dots, U_m\\}",[128,11337,11339,11357],{"className":11338,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11340,11342,11345,11348,11351,11354],{"className":11341},[250],[128,11343],{"className":11344,"style":283},[254],[128,11346,4184],{"className":11347,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11349],{"className":11350,"style":1945},[269],[128,11352,2344],{"className":11353},[1949],[128,11355],{"className":11356,"style":1945},[269],[128,11358,11360,11363,11366,11406,11409,11412,11415,11418,11421,11424,11464],{"className":11359},[250],[128,11361],{"className":11362,"style":1870},[254],[128,11364,3146],{"className":11365},[1878],[128,11367,11369,11372],{"className":11368},[259],[128,11370,4184],{"className":11371,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11373,11375],{"className":11374},[2660],[128,11376,11378,11398],{"className":11377},[274,321],[128,11379,11381,11395],{"className":11380},[278],[128,11382,11384],{"className":11383,"style":3223},[282],[128,11385,11386,11389],{"style":4311},[128,11387],{"className":11388,"style":291},[290],[128,11390,11392],{"className":11391},[299,300,301,298],[128,11393,3154],{"className":11394},[259,298],[128,11396,347],{"className":11397},[346],[128,11399,11401],{"className":11400},[278],[128,11402,11404],{"className":11403,"style":2692},[282],[128,11405],{},[128,11407,1795],{"className":11408},[1820],[128,11410],{"className":11411,"style":1824},[269],[128,11413,3159],{"className":11414},[3256],[128,11416],{"className":11417,"style":1824},[269],[128,11419,1795],{"className":11420},[1820],[128,11422],{"className":11423,"style":1824},[269],[128,11425,11427,11430],{"className":11426},[259],[128,11428,4184],{"className":11429,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,11431,11433],{"className":11432},[2660],[128,11434,11436,11456],{"className":11435},[274,321],[128,11437,11439,11453],{"className":11438},[278],[128,11440,11442],{"className":11441,"style":2670},[282],[128,11443,11444,11447],{"style":4311},[128,11445],{"className":11446,"style":291},[290],[128,11448,11450],{"className":11449},[299,300,301,298],[128,11451,11330],{"className":11452},[259,1815,298],[128,11454,347],{"className":11455},[346],[128,11457,11459],{"className":11458},[278],[128,11460,11462],{"className":11461,"style":2692},[282],[128,11463],{},[128,11465,3171],{"className":11466},[1894]," 是 ",[35,11469,11470],{},"外生变量（exogenous variables）"," 集合，代表模型边界之外、不由模型内部机制解释的随机扰动源；",[2252,11473,11474,11467,11645,11648],{},[128,11475,11477,11514],{"className":11476,"translate":218},[217],[128,11478,11480],{"className":11479},[222],[224,11481,11482],{"xmlns":226},[228,11483,11484,11512],{},[231,11485,11486,11488,11490,11492,11498,11500,11502,11504,11510],{},[1790,11487,3071],{},[1793,11489,2344],{},[1793,11491,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,11493,11494,11496],{},[1790,11495,3071],{},[3152,11497,3154],{},[1793,11499,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,11501,3159],{},[1793,11503,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,11505,11506,11508],{},[1790,11507,3071],{},[1790,11509,3168],{},[1793,11511,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,11513,3174],{"encoding":240},[128,11515,11517,11535],{"className":11516,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11518,11520,11523,11526,11529,11532],{"className":11519},[250],[128,11521],{"className":11522,"style":283},[254],[128,11524,3071],{"className":11525,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,11527],{"className":11528,"style":1945},[269],[128,11530,2344],{"className":11531},[1949],[128,11533],{"className":11534,"style":1945},[269],[128,11536,11538,11541,11544,11584,11587,11590,11593,11596,11599,11602,11642],{"className":11537},[250],[128,11539],{"className":11540,"style":1870},[254],[128,11542,3146],{"className":11543},[1878],[128,11545,11547,11550],{"className":11546},[259],[128,11548,3071],{"className":11549,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,11551,11553],{"className":11552},[2660],[128,11554,11556,11576],{"className":11555},[274,321],[128,11557,11559,11573],{"className":11558},[278],[128,11560,11562],{"className":11561,"style":3223},[282],[128,11563,11564,11567],{"style":3226},[128,11565],{"className":11566,"style":291},[290],[128,11568,11570],{"className":11569},[299,300,301,298],[128,11571,3154],{"className":11572},[259,298],[128,11574,347],{"className":11575},[346],[128,11577,11579],{"className":11578},[278],[128,11580,11582],{"className":11581,"style":2692},[282],[128,11583],{},[128,11585,1795],{"className":11586},[1820],[128,11588],{"className":11589,"style":1824},[269],[128,11591,3159],{"className":11592},[3256],[128,11594],{"className":11595,"style":1824},[269],[128,11597,1795],{"className":11598},[1820],[128,11600],{"className":11601,"style":1824},[269],[128,11603,11605,11608],{"className":11604},[259],[128,11606,3071],{"className":11607,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,11609,11611],{"className":11610},[2660],[128,11612,11614,11634],{"className":11613},[274,321],[128,11615,11617,11631],{"className":11616},[278],[128,11618,11620],{"className":11619,"style":2670},[282],[128,11621,11622,11625],{"style":3226},[128,11623],{"className":11624,"style":291},[290],[128,11626,11628],{"className":11627},[299,300,301,298],[128,11629,3168],{"className":11630},[259,1815,298],[128,11632,347],{"className":11633},[346],[128,11635,11637],{"className":11636},[278],[128,11638,11640],{"className":11639,"style":2692},[282],[128,11641],{},[128,11643,3171],{"className":11644},[1894],[35,11646,11647],{},"内生变量（endogenous variables）"," 集合，是模型所关心、由模型内部机制决定的变量；",[2252,11650,11651,11467,11824,11827,11828,11898,11899,12318,12319,12396,12397,12466,12467,12536,12537,12629,12630,12699],{},[128,11652,11654,11692],{"className":11653,"translate":218},[217],[128,11655,11657],{"className":11656},[222],[224,11658,11659],{"xmlns":226},[228,11660,11661,11689],{},[231,11662,11663,11665,11667,11669,11675,11677,11679,11681,11687],{},[1790,11664,11203],{},[1793,11666,2344],{},[1793,11668,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,11670,11671,11673],{},[1790,11672,7444],{},[3152,11674,3154],{},[1793,11676,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,11678,3159],{},[1793,11680,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,11682,11683,11685],{},[1790,11684,7444],{},[1790,11686,3168],{},[1793,11688,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,11690,11691],{"encoding":240},"F = \\{f_1, \\dots, f_n\\}",[128,11693,11695,11713],{"className":11694,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11696,11698,11701,11704,11707,11710],{"className":11697},[250],[128,11699],{"className":11700,"style":283},[254],[128,11702,11203],{"className":11703,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,11705],{"className":11706,"style":1945},[269],[128,11708,2344],{"className":11709},[1949],[128,11711],{"className":11712,"style":1945},[269],[128,11714,11716,11719,11722,11763,11766,11769,11772,11775,11778,11781,11821],{"className":11715},[250],[128,11717],{"className":11718,"style":1870},[254],[128,11720,3146],{"className":11721},[1878],[128,11723,11725,11728],{"className":11724},[259],[128,11726,7444],{"className":11727,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,11729,11731],{"className":11730},[2660],[128,11732,11734,11755],{"className":11733},[274,321],[128,11735,11737,11752],{"className":11736},[278],[128,11738,11740],{"className":11739,"style":3223},[282],[128,11741,11743,11746],{"style":11742},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1076em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,11744],{"className":11745,"style":291},[290],[128,11747,11749],{"className":11748},[299,300,301,298],[128,11750,3154],{"className":11751},[259,298],[128,11753,347],{"className":11754},[346],[128,11756,11758],{"className":11757},[278],[128,11759,11761],{"className":11760,"style":2692},[282],[128,11762],{},[128,11764,1795],{"className":11765},[1820],[128,11767],{"className":11768,"style":1824},[269],[128,11770,3159],{"className":11771},[3256],[128,11773],{"className":11774,"style":1824},[269],[128,11776,1795],{"className":11777},[1820],[128,11779],{"className":11780,"style":1824},[269],[128,11782,11784,11787],{"className":11783},[259],[128,11785,7444],{"className":11786,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,11788,11790],{"className":11789},[2660],[128,11791,11793,11813],{"className":11792},[274,321],[128,11794,11796,11810],{"className":11795},[278],[128,11797,11799],{"className":11798,"style":2670},[282],[128,11800,11801,11804],{"style":11742},[128,11802],{"className":11803,"style":291},[290],[128,11805,11807],{"className":11806},[299,300,301,298],[128,11808,3168],{"className":11809},[259,1815,298],[128,11811,347],{"className":11812},[346],[128,11814,11816],{"className":11815},[278],[128,11817,11819],{"className":11818,"style":2692},[282],[128,11820],{},[128,11822,3171],{"className":11823},[1894],[35,11825,11826],{},"结构方程（structural equations）"," 集合，每个 ",[128,11829,11831,11849],{"className":11830,"translate":218},[217],[128,11832,11834],{"className":11833},[222],[224,11835,11836],{"xmlns":226},[228,11837,11838,11846],{},[231,11839,11840],{},[2605,11841,11842,11844],{},[1790,11843,7444],{},[1790,11845,3409],{},[238,11847,11848],{"encoding":240},"f_i",[128,11850,11852],{"className":11851,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11853,11855,11858],{"className":11854},[250],[128,11856],{"className":11857,"style":6176},[254],[128,11859,11861,11864],{"className":11860},[259],[128,11862,7444],{"className":11863,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,11865,11867],{"className":11866},[2660],[128,11868,11870,11890],{"className":11869},[274,321],[128,11871,11873,11887],{"className":11872},[278],[128,11874,11876],{"className":11875,"style":3460},[282],[128,11877,11878,11881],{"style":11742},[128,11879],{"className":11880,"style":291},[290],[128,11882,11884],{"className":11883},[299,300,301,298],[128,11885,3409],{"className":11886},[259,1815,298],[128,11888,347],{"className":11889},[346],[128,11891,11893],{"className":11892},[278],[128,11894,11896],{"className":11895,"style":2692},[282],[128,11897],{}," 是一个确定性函数\n",[128,11900,11902,11984],{"className":11901,"translate":218},[217],[128,11903,11905],{"className":11904},[222],[224,11906,11907],{"xmlns":226},[228,11908,11909,11981],{},[231,11910,11911,11917,11919,11921,11927,11929,11939,11941,11947,11949,11951,11954,11964,11966,11968,11971,11973,11979],{},[2605,11912,11913,11915],{},[1790,11914,3071],{},[1790,11916,3409],{},[1793,11918,10582],{},[1793,11920,2344],{},[2605,11922,11923,11925],{},[1790,11924,7444],{},[1790,11926,3409],{},[1793,11928,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,11930,11931,11937],{},[231,11932,11933,11935],{},[1790,11934,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,11936,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,11938,3409],{},[1793,11940,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,11942,11943,11945],{},[1790,11944,4184],{},[1790,11946,3409],{},[1793,11948,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,11950,1795],{"separator":246},[269,11952],{"width":11953},"2em",[2605,11955,11956,11962],{},[231,11957,11958,11960],{},[1790,11959,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,11961,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,11963,3409],{},[1793,11965,3326],{},[1790,11967,3071],{},[1793,11969,11970],{},"∖",[1793,11972,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,11974,11975,11977],{},[1790,11976,3071],{},[1790,11978,3409],{},[1793,11980,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,11982,11983],{"encoding":240},"V_i := f_i(\\mathrm{Pa}_i, U_i), \\qquad \\mathrm{Pa}_i \\subseteq V \\setminus \\{V_i\\}",[128,11985,11987,12042,12248,12266],{"className":11986,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,11988,11990,11993,12033,12036,12039],{"className":11989},[250],[128,11991],{"className":11992,"style":3592},[254],[128,11994,11996,11999],{"className":11995},[259],[128,11997,3071],{"className":11998,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12000,12002],{"className":12001},[2660],[128,12003,12005,12025],{"className":12004},[274,321],[128,12006,12008,12022],{"className":12007},[278],[128,12009,12011],{"className":12010,"style":3460},[282],[128,12012,12013,12016],{"style":3226},[128,12014],{"className":12015,"style":291},[290],[128,12017,12019],{"className":12018},[299,300,301,298],[128,12020,3409],{"className":12021},[259,1815,298],[128,12023,347],{"className":12024},[346],[128,12026,12028],{"className":12027},[278],[128,12029,12031],{"className":12030,"style":2692},[282],[128,12032],{},[128,12034],{"className":12035,"style":1945},[269],[128,12037,10618],{"className":12038},[1949],[128,12040],{"className":12041,"style":1945},[269],[128,12043,12045,12048,12088,12091,12137,12140,12143,12183,12186,12189,12193,12196,12239,12242,12245],{"className":12044},[250],[128,12046],{"className":12047,"style":1870},[254],[128,12049,12051,12054],{"className":12050},[259],[128,12052,7444],{"className":12053,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,12055,12057],{"className":12056},[2660],[128,12058,12060,12080],{"className":12059},[274,321],[128,12061,12063,12077],{"className":12062},[278],[128,12064,12066],{"className":12065,"style":3460},[282],[128,12067,12068,12071],{"style":11742},[128,12069],{"className":12070,"style":291},[290],[128,12072,12074],{"className":12073},[299,300,301,298],[128,12075,3409],{"className":12076},[259,1815,298],[128,12078,347],{"className":12079},[346],[128,12081,12083],{"className":12082},[278],[128,12084,12086],{"className":12085,"style":2692},[282],[128,12087],{},[128,12089,1848],{"className":12090},[1878],[128,12092,12094,12102],{"className":12093},[259],[128,12095,12097],{"className":12096},[259],[128,12098,12101],{"className":12099},[259,12100],"mathrm","Pa",[128,12103,12105],{"className":12104},[2660],[128,12106,12108,12129],{"className":12107},[274,321],[128,12109,12111,12126],{"className":12110},[278],[128,12112,12114],{"className":12113,"style":3460},[282],[128,12115,12117,12120],{"style":12116},"top:-2.55em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,12118],{"className":12119,"style":291},[290],[128,12121,12123],{"className":12122},[299,300,301,298],[128,12124,3409],{"className":12125},[259,1815,298],[128,12127,347],{"className":12128},[346],[128,12130,12132],{"className":12131},[278],[128,12133,12135],{"className":12134,"style":2692},[282],[128,12136],{},[128,12138,1795],{"className":12139},[1820],[128,12141],{"className":12142,"style":1824},[269],[128,12144,12146,12149],{"className":12145},[259],[128,12147,4184],{"className":12148,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,12150,12152],{"className":12151},[2660],[128,12153,12155,12175],{"className":12154},[274,321],[128,12156,12158,12172],{"className":12157},[278],[128,12159,12161],{"className":12160,"style":3460},[282],[128,12162,12163,12166],{"style":4311},[128,12164],{"className":12165,"style":291},[290],[128,12167,12169],{"className":12168},[299,300,301,298],[128,12170,3409],{"className":12171},[259,1815,298],[128,12173,347],{"className":12174},[346],[128,12176,12178],{"className":12177},[278],[128,12179,12181],{"className":12180,"style":2692},[282],[128,12182],{},[128,12184,1857],{"className":12185},[1894],[128,12187,1795],{"className":12188},[1820],[128,12190],{"className":12191,"style":12192},[269],"margin-right:2em;",[128,12194],{"className":12195,"style":1824},[269],[128,12197,12199,12205],{"className":12198},[259],[128,12200,12202],{"className":12201},[259],[128,12203,12101],{"className":12204},[259,12100],[128,12206,12208],{"className":12207},[2660],[128,12209,12211,12231],{"className":12210},[274,321],[128,12212,12214,12228],{"className":12213},[278],[128,12215,12217],{"className":12216,"style":3460},[282],[128,12218,12219,12222],{"style":12116},[128,12220],{"className":12221,"style":291},[290],[128,12223,12225],{"className":12224},[299,300,301,298],[128,12226,3409],{"className":12227},[259,1815,298],[128,12229,347],{"className":12230},[346],[128,12232,12234],{"className":12233},[278],[128,12235,12237],{"className":12236,"style":2692},[282],[128,12238],{},[128,12240],{"className":12241,"style":1945},[269],[128,12243,3326],{"className":12244},[1949],[128,12246],{"className":12247,"style":1945},[269],[128,12249,12251,12254,12257,12260,12263],{"className":12250},[250],[128,12252],{"className":12253,"style":1870},[254],[128,12255,3071],{"className":12256,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12258],{"className":12259,"style":1828},[269],[128,12261,11970],{"className":12262},[3375],[128,12264],{"className":12265,"style":1828},[269],[128,12267,12269,12272,12275,12315],{"className":12268},[250],[128,12270],{"className":12271,"style":1870},[254],[128,12273,3146],{"className":12274},[1878],[128,12276,12278,12281],{"className":12277},[259],[128,12279,3071],{"className":12280,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12282,12284],{"className":12283},[2660],[128,12285,12287,12307],{"className":12286},[274,321],[128,12288,12290,12304],{"className":12289},[278],[128,12291,12293],{"className":12292,"style":3460},[282],[128,12294,12295,12298],{"style":3226},[128,12296],{"className":12297,"style":291},[290],[128,12299,12301],{"className":12300},[299,300,301,298],[128,12302,3409],{"className":12303},[259,1815,298],[128,12305,347],{"className":12306},[346],[128,12308,12310],{"className":12309},[278],[128,12311,12313],{"className":12312,"style":2692},[282],[128,12314],{},[128,12316,3171],{"className":12317},[1894],"\n其中 ",[128,12320,12322,12344],{"className":12321,"translate":218},[217],[128,12323,12325],{"className":12324},[222],[224,12326,12327],{"xmlns":226},[228,12328,12329,12341],{},[231,12330,12331],{},[2605,12332,12333,12339],{},[231,12334,12335,12337],{},[1790,12336,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,12338,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,12340,3409],{},[238,12342,12343],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{Pa}_i",[128,12345,12347],{"className":12346,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12348,12350,12353],{"className":12349},[250],[128,12351],{"className":12352,"style":3592},[254],[128,12354,12356,12362],{"className":12355},[259],[128,12357,12359],{"className":12358},[259],[128,12360,12101],{"className":12361},[259,12100],[128,12363,12365],{"className":12364},[2660],[128,12366,12368,12388],{"className":12367},[274,321],[128,12369,12371,12385],{"className":12370},[278],[128,12372,12374],{"className":12373,"style":3460},[282],[128,12375,12376,12379],{"style":12116},[128,12377],{"className":12378,"style":291},[290],[128,12380,12382],{"className":12381},[299,300,301,298],[128,12383,3409],{"className":12384},[259,1815,298],[128,12386,347],{"className":12387},[346],[128,12389,12391],{"className":12390},[278],[128,12392,12394],{"className":12393,"style":2692},[282],[128,12395],{},"（",[128,12398,12400,12417],{"className":12399,"translate":218},[217],[128,12401,12403],{"className":12402},[222],[224,12404,12405],{"xmlns":226},[228,12406,12407,12415],{},[231,12408,12409],{},[2605,12410,12411,12413],{},[1790,12412,3071],{},[1790,12414,3409],{},[238,12416,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,12418,12420],{"className":12419,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12421,12423,12426],{"className":12422},[250],[128,12424],{"className":12425,"style":3592},[254],[128,12427,12429,12432],{"className":12428},[259],[128,12430,3071],{"className":12431,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12433,12435],{"className":12434},[2660],[128,12436,12438,12458],{"className":12437},[274,321],[128,12439,12441,12455],{"className":12440},[278],[128,12442,12444],{"className":12443,"style":3460},[282],[128,12445,12446,12449],{"style":3226},[128,12447],{"className":12448,"style":291},[290],[128,12450,12452],{"className":12451},[299,300,301,298],[128,12453,3409],{"className":12454},[259,1815,298],[128,12456,347],{"className":12457},[346],[128,12459,12461],{"className":12460},[278],[128,12462,12464],{"className":12463,"style":2692},[282],[128,12465],{}," 的「父集合」）是被假设直接影响 ",[128,12468,12470,12487],{"className":12469,"translate":218},[217],[128,12471,12473],{"className":12472},[222],[224,12474,12475],{"xmlns":226},[228,12476,12477,12485],{},[231,12478,12479],{},[2605,12480,12481,12483],{},[1790,12482,3071],{},[1790,12484,3409],{},[238,12486,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,12488,12490],{"className":12489,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12491,12493,12496],{"className":12492},[250],[128,12494],{"className":12495,"style":3592},[254],[128,12497,12499,12502],{"className":12498},[259],[128,12500,3071],{"className":12501,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12503,12505],{"className":12504},[2660],[128,12506,12508,12528],{"className":12507},[274,321],[128,12509,12511,12525],{"className":12510},[278],[128,12512,12514],{"className":12513,"style":3460},[282],[128,12515,12516,12519],{"style":3226},[128,12517],{"className":12518,"style":291},[290],[128,12520,12522],{"className":12521},[299,300,301,298],[128,12523,3409],{"className":12524},[259,1815,298],[128,12526,347],{"className":12527},[346],[128,12529,12531],{"className":12530},[278],[128,12532,12534],{"className":12533,"style":2692},[282],[128,12535],{}," 的其余内生变量子集，",[128,12538,12540,12562],{"className":12539,"translate":218},[217],[128,12541,12543],{"className":12542},[222],[224,12544,12545],{"xmlns":226},[228,12546,12547,12559],{},[231,12548,12549,12555,12557],{},[2605,12550,12551,12553],{},[1790,12552,4184],{},[1790,12554,3409],{},[1793,12556,3326],{},[1790,12558,4184],{},[238,12560,12561],{"encoding":240},"U_i \\subseteq U",[128,12563,12565,12620],{"className":12564,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12566,12568,12571,12611,12614,12617],{"className":12567},[250],[128,12569],{"className":12570,"style":3592},[254],[128,12572,12574,12577],{"className":12573},[259],[128,12575,4184],{"className":12576,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,12578,12580],{"className":12579},[2660],[128,12581,12583,12603],{"className":12582},[274,321],[128,12584,12586,12600],{"className":12585},[278],[128,12587,12589],{"className":12588,"style":3460},[282],[128,12590,12591,12594],{"style":4311},[128,12592],{"className":12593,"style":291},[290],[128,12595,12597],{"className":12596},[299,300,301,298],[128,12598,3409],{"className":12599},[259,1815,298],[128,12601,347],{"className":12602},[346],[128,12604,12606],{"className":12605},[278],[128,12607,12609],{"className":12608,"style":2692},[282],[128,12610],{},[128,12612],{"className":12613,"style":1945},[269],[128,12615,3326],{"className":12616},[1949],[128,12618],{"className":12619,"style":1945},[269],[128,12621,12623,12626],{"className":12622},[250],[128,12624],{"className":12625,"style":283},[254],[128,12627,4184],{"className":12628,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 是影响 ",[128,12631,12633,12650],{"className":12632,"translate":218},[217],[128,12634,12636],{"className":12635},[222],[224,12637,12638],{"xmlns":226},[228,12639,12640,12648],{},[231,12641,12642],{},[2605,12643,12644,12646],{},[1790,12645,3071],{},[1790,12647,3409],{},[238,12649,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,12651,12653],{"className":12652,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12654,12656,12659],{"className":12655},[250],[128,12657],{"className":12658,"style":3592},[254],[128,12660,12662,12665],{"className":12661},[259],[128,12663,3071],{"className":12664,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12666,12668],{"className":12667},[2660],[128,12669,12671,12691],{"className":12670},[274,321],[128,12672,12674,12688],{"className":12673},[278],[128,12675,12677],{"className":12676,"style":3460},[282],[128,12678,12679,12682],{"style":3226},[128,12680],{"className":12681,"style":291},[290],[128,12683,12685],{"className":12684},[299,300,301,298],[128,12686,3409],{"className":12687},[259,1815,298],[128,12689,347],{"className":12690},[346],[128,12692,12694],{"className":12693},[278],[128,12695,12697],{"className":12696,"style":2692},[282],[128,12698],{}," 的外生噪声；",[2252,12701,12702,12746,12747,12775],{},[128,12703,12705,12725],{"className":12704,"translate":218},[217],[128,12706,12708],{"className":12707},[222],[224,12709,12710],{"xmlns":226},[228,12711,12712,12722],{},[231,12713,12714,12716,12718,12720],{},[1790,12715,1844],{},[1793,12717,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,12719,4184],{},[1793,12721,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,12723,12724],{"encoding":240},"P(U)",[128,12726,12728],{"className":12727,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12729,12731,12734,12737,12740,12743],{"className":12730},[250],[128,12732],{"className":12733,"style":1870},[254],[128,12735,1844],{"className":12736,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,12738,1848],{"className":12739},[1878],[128,12741,4184],{"className":12742,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,12744,1857],{"className":12745},[1894]," 是外生变量集合 ",[128,12748,12750,12763],{"className":12749,"translate":218},[217],[128,12751,12753],{"className":12752},[222],[224,12754,12755],{"xmlns":226},[228,12756,12757,12761],{},[231,12758,12759],{},[1790,12760,4184],{},[238,12762,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,12764,12766],{"className":12765,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12767,12769,12772],{"className":12768},[250],[128,12770],{"className":12771,"style":283},[254],[128,12773,4184],{"className":12774,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 上的联合概率分布。",[64,12777,12778],{},[11,12779,12780,12783,12784,12812,12813,12883,12884,12976,12977,13006,13007,13147,13148,893],{},[35,12781,12782],{},"定义 2.2（诱导因果图）"," 给定 SCM ",[128,12785,12787,12800],{"className":12786,"translate":218},[217],[128,12788,12790],{"className":12789},[222],[224,12791,12792],{"xmlns":226},[228,12793,12794,12798],{},[231,12795,12796],{},[1790,12797,11188],{},[238,12799,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,12801,12803],{"className":12802,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12804,12806,12809],{"className":12805},[250],[128,12807],{"className":12808,"style":283},[254],[128,12810,11188],{"className":12811,"style":4296},[259,1815],"，其对应的因果图 ",[128,12814,12816,12834],{"className":12815,"translate":218},[217],[128,12817,12819],{"className":12818},[222],[224,12820,12821],{"xmlns":226},[228,12822,12823,12831],{},[231,12824,12825],{},[2605,12826,12827,12829],{},[1790,12828,3064],{},[1790,12830,11188],{},[238,12832,12833],{"encoding":240},"G_M",[128,12835,12837],{"className":12836,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12838,12840,12843],{"className":12839},[250],[128,12841],{"className":12842,"style":3592},[254],[128,12844,12846,12849],{"className":12845},[259],[128,12847,3064],{"className":12848},[259,1815],[128,12850,12852],{"className":12851},[2660],[128,12853,12855,12875],{"className":12854},[274,321],[128,12856,12858,12872],{"className":12857},[278],[128,12859,12861],{"className":12860,"style":9078},[282],[128,12862,12863,12866],{"style":9009},[128,12864],{"className":12865,"style":291},[290],[128,12867,12869],{"className":12868},[299,300,301,298],[128,12870,11188],{"className":12871,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,12873,347],{"className":12874},[346],[128,12876,12878],{"className":12877},[278],[128,12879,12881],{"className":12880,"style":2692},[282],[128,12882],{}," 定义为：",[128,12885,12887,12909],{"className":12886,"translate":218},[217],[128,12888,12890],{"className":12889},[222],[224,12891,12892],{"xmlns":226},[228,12893,12894,12906],{},[231,12895,12896,12902,12904],{},[2605,12897,12898,12900],{},[1790,12899,3071],{},[1790,12901,11188],{},[1793,12903,2344],{},[1790,12905,3071],{},[238,12907,12908],{"encoding":240},"V_M = V",[128,12910,12912,12967],{"className":12911,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12913,12915,12918,12958,12961,12964],{"className":12914},[250],[128,12916],{"className":12917,"style":3592},[254],[128,12919,12921,12924],{"className":12920},[259],[128,12922,3071],{"className":12923,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,12925,12927],{"className":12926},[2660],[128,12928,12930,12950],{"className":12929},[274,321],[128,12931,12933,12947],{"className":12932},[278],[128,12934,12936],{"className":12935,"style":9078},[282],[128,12937,12938,12941],{"style":3226},[128,12939],{"className":12940,"style":291},[290],[128,12942,12944],{"className":12943},[299,300,301,298],[128,12945,11188],{"className":12946,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,12948,347],{"className":12949},[346],[128,12951,12953],{"className":12952},[278],[128,12954,12956],{"className":12955,"style":2692},[282],[128,12957],{},[128,12959],{"className":12960,"style":1945},[269],[128,12962,2344],{"className":12963},[1949],[128,12965],{"className":12966,"style":1945},[269],[128,12968,12970,12973],{"className":12969},[250],[128,12971],{"className":12972,"style":283},[254],[128,12974,3071],{"className":12975,"style":1828},[259,1815],"，且对每个 ",[128,12978,12980,12993],{"className":12979,"translate":218},[217],[128,12981,12983],{"className":12982},[222],[224,12984,12985],{"xmlns":226},[228,12986,12987,12991],{},[231,12988,12989],{},[1790,12990,3409],{},[238,12992,3409],{"encoding":240},[128,12994,12996],{"className":12995,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,12997,12999,13003],{"className":12998},[250],[128,13000],{"className":13001,"style":13002},[254],"height:0.6595em;",[128,13004,3409],{"className":13005},[259,1815],"、每个 ",[128,13008,13010,13040],{"className":13009,"translate":218},[217],[128,13011,13013],{"className":13012},[222],[224,13014,13015],{"xmlns":226},[228,13016,13017,13037],{},[231,13018,13019,13025,13027],{},[2605,13020,13021,13023],{},[1790,13022,3071],{},[1790,13024,3418],{},[1793,13026,3423],{},[2605,13028,13029,13035],{},[231,13030,13031,13033],{},[1790,13032,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,13034,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,13036,3409],{},[238,13038,13039],{"encoding":240},"V_j \\in \\mathrm{Pa}_i",[128,13041,13043,13098],{"className":13042,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13044,13046,13049,13089,13092,13095],{"className":13045},[250],[128,13047],{"className":13048,"style":3648},[254],[128,13050,13052,13055],{"className":13051},[259],[128,13053,3071],{"className":13054,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13056,13058],{"className":13057},[2660],[128,13059,13061,13081],{"className":13060},[274,321],[128,13062,13064,13078],{"className":13063},[278],[128,13065,13067],{"className":13066,"style":3460},[282],[128,13068,13069,13072],{"style":3226},[128,13070],{"className":13071,"style":291},[290],[128,13073,13075],{"className":13074},[299,300,301,298],[128,13076,3418],{"className":13077,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,13079,347],{"className":13080},[346],[128,13082,13084],{"className":13083},[278],[128,13085,13087],{"className":13086,"style":3528},[282],[128,13088],{},[128,13090],{"className":13091,"style":1945},[269],[128,13093,3423],{"className":13094},[1949],[128,13096],{"className":13097,"style":1945},[269],[128,13099,13101,13104],{"className":13100},[250],[128,13102],{"className":13103,"style":3592},[254],[128,13105,13107,13113],{"className":13106},[259],[128,13108,13110],{"className":13109},[259],[128,13111,12101],{"className":13112},[259,12100],[128,13114,13116],{"className":13115},[2660],[128,13117,13119,13139],{"className":13118},[274,321],[128,13120,13122,13136],{"className":13121},[278],[128,13123,13125],{"className":13124,"style":3460},[282],[128,13126,13127,13130],{"style":12116},[128,13128],{"className":13129,"style":291},[290],[128,13131,13133],{"className":13132},[299,300,301,298],[128,13134,3409],{"className":13135},[259,1815,298],[128,13137,347],{"className":13138},[346],[128,13140,13142],{"className":13141},[278],[128,13143,13145],{"className":13144,"style":2692},[282],[128,13146],{},"，画一条边 ",[128,13149,13151,13177],{"className":13150,"translate":218},[217],[128,13152,13154],{"className":13153},[222],[224,13155,13156],{"xmlns":226},[228,13157,13158,13174],{},[231,13159,13160,13166,13168],{},[2605,13161,13162,13164],{},[1790,13163,3071],{},[1790,13165,3418],{},[1793,13167,3573],{},[2605,13169,13170,13172],{},[1790,13171,3071],{},[1790,13173,3409],{},[238,13175,13176],{"encoding":240},"V_j \\to V_i",[128,13178,13180,13235],{"className":13179,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13181,13183,13186,13226,13229,13232],{"className":13182},[250],[128,13184],{"className":13185,"style":3648},[254],[128,13187,13189,13192],{"className":13188},[259],[128,13190,3071],{"className":13191,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13193,13195],{"className":13194},[2660],[128,13196,13198,13218],{"className":13197},[274,321],[128,13199,13201,13215],{"className":13200},[278],[128,13202,13204],{"className":13203,"style":3460},[282],[128,13205,13206,13209],{"style":3226},[128,13207],{"className":13208,"style":291},[290],[128,13210,13212],{"className":13211},[299,300,301,298],[128,13213,3418],{"className":13214,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,13216,347],{"className":13217},[346],[128,13219,13221],{"className":13220},[278],[128,13222,13224],{"className":13223,"style":3528},[282],[128,13225],{},[128,13227],{"className":13228,"style":1945},[269],[128,13230,3573],{"className":13231},[1949],[128,13233],{"className":13234,"style":1945},[269],[128,13236,13238,13241],{"className":13237},[250],[128,13239],{"className":13240,"style":3592},[254],[128,13242,13244,13247],{"className":13243},[259],[128,13245,3071],{"className":13246,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13248,13250],{"className":13249},[2660],[128,13251,13253,13273],{"className":13252},[274,321],[128,13254,13256,13270],{"className":13255},[278],[128,13257,13259],{"className":13258,"style":3460},[282],[128,13260,13261,13264],{"style":3226},[128,13262],{"className":13263,"style":291},[290],[128,13265,13267],{"className":13266},[299,300,301,298],[128,13268,3409],{"className":13269},[259,1815,298],[128,13271,347],{"className":13272},[346],[128,13274,13276],{"className":13275},[278],[128,13277,13279],{"className":13278,"style":2692},[282],[128,13280],{},[64,13282,13283],{},[11,13284,13285,8727,13288,13357,13358,13498,13499,13502,13503,13531,13532,13535,13536,13666],{},[35,13286,13287],{},"定义 2.3（马尔可夫型 SCM，Markovian SCM）",[128,13289,13291,13308],{"className":13290,"translate":218},[217],[128,13292,13294],{"className":13293},[222],[224,13295,13296],{"xmlns":226},[228,13297,13298,13306],{},[231,13299,13300],{},[2605,13301,13302,13304],{},[1790,13303,3064],{},[1790,13305,11188],{},[238,13307,12833],{"encoding":240},[128,13309,13311],{"className":13310,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13312,13314,13317],{"className":13313},[250],[128,13315],{"className":13316,"style":3592},[254],[128,13318,13320,13323],{"className":13319},[259],[128,13321,3064],{"className":13322},[259,1815],[128,13324,13326],{"className":13325},[2660],[128,13327,13329,13349],{"className":13328},[274,321],[128,13330,13332,13346],{"className":13331},[278],[128,13333,13335],{"className":13334,"style":9078},[282],[128,13336,13337,13340],{"style":9009},[128,13338],{"className":13339,"style":291},[290],[128,13341,13343],{"className":13342},[299,300,301,298],[128,13344,11188],{"className":13345,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,13347,347],{"className":13348},[346],[128,13350,13352],{"className":13351},[278],[128,13353,13355],{"className":13354,"style":2692},[282],[128,13356],{}," 是无环的，且各外生变量 ",[128,13359,13361,13391],{"className":13360,"translate":218},[217],[128,13362,13364],{"className":13363},[222],[224,13365,13366],{"xmlns":226},[228,13367,13368,13388],{},[231,13369,13370,13376,13378,13380,13382],{},[2605,13371,13372,13374],{},[1790,13373,4184],{},[3152,13375,3154],{},[1793,13377,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,13379,3159],{},[1793,13381,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,13383,13384,13386],{},[1790,13385,4184],{},[1790,13387,11330],{},[238,13389,13390],{"encoding":240},"U_1, \\dots, U_m",[128,13392,13394],{"className":13393,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13395,13397,13400,13440,13443,13446,13449,13452,13455,13458],{"className":13396},[250],[128,13398],{"className":13399,"style":1811},[254],[128,13401,13403,13406],{"className":13402},[259],[128,13404,4184],{"className":13405,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,13407,13409],{"className":13408},[2660],[128,13410,13412,13432],{"className":13411},[274,321],[128,13413,13415,13429],{"className":13414},[278],[128,13416,13418],{"className":13417,"style":3223},[282],[128,13419,13420,13423],{"style":4311},[128,13421],{"className":13422,"style":291},[290],[128,13424,13426],{"className":13425},[299,300,301,298],[128,13427,3154],{"className":13428},[259,298],[128,13430,347],{"className":13431},[346],[128,13433,13435],{"className":13434},[278],[128,13436,13438],{"className":13437,"style":2692},[282],[128,13439],{},[128,13441,1795],{"className":13442},[1820],[128,13444],{"className":13445,"style":1824},[269],[128,13447,3159],{"className":13448},[3256],[128,13450],{"className":13451,"style":1824},[269],[128,13453,1795],{"className":13454},[1820],[128,13456],{"className":13457,"style":1824},[269],[128,13459,13461,13464],{"className":13460},[259],[128,13462,4184],{"className":13463,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,13465,13467],{"className":13466},[2660],[128,13468,13470,13490],{"className":13469},[274,321],[128,13471,13473,13487],{"className":13472},[278],[128,13474,13476],{"className":13475,"style":2670},[282],[128,13477,13478,13481],{"style":4311},[128,13479],{"className":13480,"style":291},[290],[128,13482,13484],{"className":13483},[299,300,301,298],[128,13485,11330],{"className":13486},[259,1815,298],[128,13488,347],{"className":13489},[346],[128,13491,13493],{"className":13492},[278],[128,13494,13496],{"className":13495,"style":2692},[282],[128,13497],{}," 两两",[35,13500,13501],{},"相互独立","（即不存在同时影响两个及以上内生变量的「隐藏共同噪声」），则称 ",[128,13504,13506,13519],{"className":13505,"translate":218},[217],[128,13507,13509],{"className":13508},[222],[224,13510,13511],{"xmlns":226},[228,13512,13513,13517],{},[231,13514,13515],{},[1790,13516,11188],{},[238,13518,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,13520,13522],{"className":13521,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13523,13525,13528],{"className":13524},[250],[128,13526],{"className":13527,"style":283},[254],[128,13529,11188],{"className":13530,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 为马尔可夫型 SCM。若外生变量之间允许相关（对应存在未显式建模的混杂因子），则称为",[35,13533,13534],{},"半马尔可夫型（semi-Markovian）","，此时因果图通常需要补充双向虚线弧 ",[128,13537,13539,13570],{"className":13538,"translate":218},[217],[128,13540,13542],{"className":13541},[222],[224,13543,13544],{"xmlns":226},[228,13545,13546,13567],{},[231,13547,13548,13554,13561],{},[2605,13549,13550,13552],{},[1790,13551,3071],{},[1790,13553,3409],{},[13555,13556,13558],"mstyle",{"mathcolor":13557},"#cc0000",[234,13559,13560],{},"\\dashleftrightarrow",[2605,13562,13563,13565],{},[1790,13564,3071],{},[1790,13566,3418],{},[238,13568,13569],{"encoding":240},"V_i \\dashleftrightarrow V_j",[128,13571,13573],{"className":13572,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13574,13576,13579,13619,13626],{"className":13575},[250],[128,13577],{"className":13578,"style":3438},[254],[128,13580,13582,13585],{"className":13581},[259],[128,13583,3071],{"className":13584,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13586,13588],{"className":13587},[2660],[128,13589,13591,13611],{"className":13590},[274,321],[128,13592,13594,13608],{"className":13593},[278],[128,13595,13597],{"className":13596,"style":3460},[282],[128,13598,13599,13602],{"style":3226},[128,13600],{"className":13601,"style":291},[290],[128,13603,13605],{"className":13604},[299,300,301,298],[128,13606,3409],{"className":13607},[259,1815,298],[128,13609,347],{"className":13610},[346],[128,13612,13614],{"className":13613},[278],[128,13615,13617],{"className":13616,"style":2692},[282],[128,13618],{},[128,13620,13623],{"className":13621,"style":13622},[259,260],"color:#cc0000;",[128,13624,13560],{"className":13625,"style":13622},[259],[128,13627,13629,13632],{"className":13628},[259],[128,13630,3071],{"className":13631,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13633,13635],{"className":13634},[2660],[128,13636,13638,13658],{"className":13637},[274,321],[128,13639,13641,13655],{"className":13640},[278],[128,13642,13644],{"className":13643,"style":3460},[282],[128,13645,13646,13649],{"style":3226},[128,13647],{"className":13648,"style":291},[290],[128,13650,13652],{"className":13651},[299,300,301,298],[128,13653,3418],{"className":13654,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,13656,347],{"className":13657},[346],[128,13659,13661],{"className":13660},[278],[128,13662,13664],{"className":13663,"style":3528},[282],[128,13665],{}," 以标示这种隐藏依赖。本文后续讨论若无特别说明，均限于马尔可夫型 SCM。",[3038,13668,13670],{"id":13669},"_22-诱导分布与马尔可夫性","2.2 诱导分布与马尔可夫性",[64,13672,13673],{},[11,13674,13675,13678,13679,13707,13708,13736,13737,13886,13887,13915,13916,13959,13960,13988,13989,14075,14076,3831,14104,893],{},[35,13676,13677],{},"定义 2.4（诱导概率分布）"," 给定马尔可夫型 SCM ",[128,13680,13682,13695],{"className":13681,"translate":218},[217],[128,13683,13685],{"className":13684},[222],[224,13686,13687],{"xmlns":226},[228,13688,13689,13693],{},[231,13690,13691],{},[1790,13692,11188],{},[238,13694,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,13696,13698],{"className":13697,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13699,13701,13704],{"className":13700},[250],[128,13702],{"className":13703,"style":283},[254],[128,13705,11188],{"className":13706,"style":4296},[259,1815],"，由于每个内生变量都是外生变量的确定性函数（递归代入 ",[128,13709,13711,13724],{"className":13710,"translate":218},[217],[128,13712,13714],{"className":13713},[222],[224,13715,13716],{"xmlns":226},[228,13717,13718,13722],{},[231,13719,13720],{},[1790,13721,11203],{},[238,13723,11203],{"encoding":240},[128,13725,13727],{"className":13726,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13728,13730,13733],{"className":13729},[250],[128,13731],{"className":13732,"style":283},[254],[128,13734,11203],{"className":13735,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 中所有方程后可得 ",[128,13738,13740,13773],{"className":13739,"translate":218},[217],[128,13741,13743],{"className":13742},[222],[224,13744,13745],{"xmlns":226},[228,13746,13747,13770],{},[231,13748,13749,13755,13757,13764,13766,13768],{},[2605,13750,13751,13753],{},[1790,13752,3071],{},[1790,13754,3409],{},[1793,13756,2344],{},[2605,13758,13759,13762],{},[1790,13760,13761],{},"g",[1790,13763,3409],{},[1793,13765,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,13767,4184],{},[1793,13769,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,13771,13772],{"encoding":240},"V_i = g_i(U)",[128,13774,13776,13831],{"className":13775,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13777,13779,13782,13822,13825,13828],{"className":13778},[250],[128,13780],{"className":13781,"style":3592},[254],[128,13783,13785,13788],{"className":13784},[259],[128,13786,3071],{"className":13787,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,13789,13791],{"className":13790},[2660],[128,13792,13794,13814],{"className":13793},[274,321],[128,13795,13797,13811],{"className":13796},[278],[128,13798,13800],{"className":13799,"style":3460},[282],[128,13801,13802,13805],{"style":3226},[128,13803],{"className":13804,"style":291},[290],[128,13806,13808],{"className":13807},[299,300,301,298],[128,13809,3409],{"className":13810},[259,1815,298],[128,13812,347],{"className":13813},[346],[128,13815,13817],{"className":13816},[278],[128,13818,13820],{"className":13819,"style":2692},[282],[128,13821],{},[128,13823],{"className":13824,"style":1945},[269],[128,13826,2344],{"className":13827},[1949],[128,13829],{"className":13830,"style":1945},[269],[128,13832,13834,13837,13877,13880,13883],{"className":13833},[250],[128,13835],{"className":13836,"style":1870},[254],[128,13838,13840,13843],{"className":13839},[259],[128,13841,13761],{"className":13842,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,13844,13846],{"className":13845},[2660],[128,13847,13849,13869],{"className":13848},[274,321],[128,13850,13852,13866],{"className":13851},[278],[128,13853,13855],{"className":13854,"style":3460},[282],[128,13856,13857,13860],{"style":2673},[128,13858],{"className":13859,"style":291},[290],[128,13861,13863],{"className":13862},[299,300,301,298],[128,13864,3409],{"className":13865},[259,1815,298],[128,13867,347],{"className":13868},[346],[128,13870,13872],{"className":13871},[278],[128,13873,13875],{"className":13874,"style":2692},[282],[128,13876],{},[128,13878,1848],{"className":13879},[1878],[128,13881,4184],{"className":13882,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,13884,1857],{"className":13885},[1894],"），",[128,13888,13890,13903],{"className":13889,"translate":218},[217],[128,13891,13893],{"className":13892},[222],[224,13894,13895],{"xmlns":226},[228,13896,13897,13901],{},[231,13898,13899],{},[1790,13900,4184],{},[238,13902,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,13904,13906],{"className":13905,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13907,13909,13912],{"className":13908},[250],[128,13910],{"className":13911,"style":283},[254],[128,13913,4184],{"className":13914,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 上的分布 ",[128,13917,13919,13938],{"className":13918,"translate":218},[217],[128,13920,13922],{"className":13921},[222],[224,13923,13924],{"xmlns":226},[228,13925,13926,13936],{},[231,13927,13928,13930,13932,13934],{},[1790,13929,1844],{},[1793,13931,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,13933,4184],{},[1793,13935,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,13937,12724],{"encoding":240},[128,13939,13941],{"className":13940,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13942,13944,13947,13950,13953,13956],{"className":13943},[250],[128,13945],{"className":13946,"style":1870},[254],[128,13948,1844],{"className":13949,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,13951,1848],{"className":13952},[1878],[128,13954,4184],{"className":13955,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,13957,1857],{"className":13958},[1894]," 唯一诱导出 ",[128,13961,13963,13976],{"className":13962,"translate":218},[217],[128,13964,13966],{"className":13965},[222],[224,13967,13968],{"xmlns":226},[228,13969,13970,13974],{},[231,13971,13972],{},[1790,13973,3071],{},[238,13975,3071],{"encoding":240},[128,13977,13979],{"className":13978,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,13980,13982,13985],{"className":13981},[250],[128,13983],{"className":13984,"style":283},[254],[128,13986,3071],{"className":13987,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 上的一个联合分布 ",[128,13990,13992,14016],{"className":13991,"translate":218},[217],[128,13993,13995],{"className":13994},[222],[224,13996,13997],{"xmlns":226},[228,13998,13999,14013],{},[231,14000,14001,14007,14009,14011],{},[2605,14002,14003,14005],{},[1790,14004,1844],{},[1790,14006,11188],{},[1793,14008,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,14010,3071],{},[1793,14012,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,14014,14015],{"encoding":240},"P_M(V)",[128,14017,14019],{"className":14018,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14020,14022,14025,14066,14069,14072],{"className":14021},[250],[128,14023],{"className":14024,"style":1870},[254],[128,14026,14028,14031],{"className":14027},[259],[128,14029,1844],{"className":14030,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,14032,14034],{"className":14033},[2660],[128,14035,14037,14058],{"className":14036},[274,321],[128,14038,14040,14055],{"className":14039},[278],[128,14041,14043],{"className":14042,"style":9078},[282],[128,14044,14046,14049],{"style":14045},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,14047],{"className":14048,"style":291},[290],[128,14050,14052],{"className":14051},[299,300,301,298],[128,14053,11188],{"className":14054,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,14056,347],{"className":14057},[346],[128,14059,14061],{"className":14060},[278],[128,14062,14064],{"className":14063,"style":2692},[282],[128,14065],{},[128,14067,1848],{"className":14068},[1878],[128,14070,3071],{"className":14071,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,14073,1857],{"className":14074},[1894],"，称为 ",[128,14077,14079,14092],{"className":14078,"translate":218},[217],[128,14080,14082],{"className":14081},[222],[224,14083,14084],{"xmlns":226},[228,14085,14086,14090],{},[231,14087,14088],{},[1790,14089,11188],{},[238,14091,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,14093,14095],{"className":14094,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14096,14098,14101],{"className":14097},[250],[128,14099],{"className":14100,"style":283},[254],[128,14102,11188],{"className":14103,"style":4296},[259,1815],[35,14105,14106,14107,14110],{},"诱导分布（induced distribution）",[35,14108,14109],{},"或","观测分布",[64,14112,14113],{},[11,14114,14115,8727,14118,14146,14147,14231,14232,14669],{},[35,14116,14117],{},"定理 2.1（马尔可夫分解，Markov Factorization）",[128,14119,14121,14134],{"className":14120,"translate":218},[217],[128,14122,14124],{"className":14123},[222],[224,14125,14126],{"xmlns":226},[228,14127,14128,14132],{},[231,14129,14130],{},[1790,14131,11188],{},[238,14133,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,14135,14137],{"className":14136,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14138,14140,14143],{"className":14139},[250],[128,14141],{"className":14142,"style":283},[254],[128,14144,11188],{"className":14145,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 为马尔可夫型 SCM，其诱导分布 ",[128,14148,14150,14173],{"className":14149,"translate":218},[217],[128,14151,14153],{"className":14152},[222],[224,14154,14155],{"xmlns":226},[228,14156,14157,14171],{},[231,14158,14159,14165,14167,14169],{},[2605,14160,14161,14163],{},[1790,14162,1844],{},[1790,14164,11188],{},[1793,14166,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,14168,3071],{},[1793,14170,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,14172,14015],{"encoding":240},[128,14174,14176],{"className":14175,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14177,14179,14182,14222,14225,14228],{"className":14178},[250],[128,14180],{"className":14181,"style":1870},[254],[128,14183,14185,14188],{"className":14184},[259],[128,14186,1844],{"className":14187,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,14189,14191],{"className":14190},[2660],[128,14192,14194,14214],{"className":14193},[274,321],[128,14195,14197,14211],{"className":14196},[278],[128,14198,14200],{"className":14199,"style":9078},[282],[128,14201,14202,14205],{"style":14045},[128,14203],{"className":14204,"style":291},[290],[128,14206,14208],{"className":14207},[299,300,301,298],[128,14209,11188],{"className":14210,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,14212,347],{"className":14213},[346],[128,14215,14217],{"className":14216},[278],[128,14218,14220],{"className":14219,"style":2692},[282],[128,14221],{},[128,14223,1848],{"className":14224},[1878],[128,14226,3071],{"className":14227,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,14229,1857],{"className":14230},[1894]," 可分解为：\n",[128,14233,14235,14318],{"className":14234,"translate":218},[217],[128,14236,14238],{"className":14237},[222],[224,14239,14240],{"xmlns":226},[228,14241,14242,14315],{},[231,14243,14244,14250,14252,14259,14261,14263,14265,14271,14273,14275,14291,14293,14295,14301,14303,14313],{},[2605,14245,14246,14248],{},[1790,14247,1844],{},[1790,14249,11188],{},[1793,14251,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,14253,14254,14257],{},[1790,14255,14256],{},"v",[3152,14258,3154],{},[1793,14260,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,14262,3159],{},[1793,14264,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,14266,14267,14269],{},[1790,14268,14256],{},[1790,14270,3168],{},[1793,14272,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,14274,2344],{},[14276,14277,14278,14281,14289],"msubsup",{},[1793,14279,14280],{},"∏",[231,14282,14283,14285,14287],{},[1790,14284,3409],{},[1793,14286,2344],{},[3152,14288,3154],{},[1790,14290,3168],{},[1790,14292,1844],{},[1793,14294,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,14296,14297,14299],{},[1790,14298,14256],{},[1790,14300,3409],{},[1793,14302,1916],{},[2605,14304,14305,14311],{},[231,14306,14307,14309],{},[1790,14308,11],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,14310,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,14312,3409],{},[1793,14314,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,14316,14317],{"encoding":240},"P_M(v_1, \\dots, v_n) = \\prod_{i=1}^n P(v_i \\mid \\mathrm{pa}_i)",[128,14319,14321,14480,14613],{"className":14320,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14322,14324,14327,14367,14370,14410,14413,14416,14419,14422,14425,14428,14468,14471,14474,14477],{"className":14323},[250],[128,14325],{"className":14326,"style":1870},[254],[128,14328,14330,14333],{"className":14329},[259],[128,14331,1844],{"className":14332,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,14334,14336],{"className":14335},[2660],[128,14337,14339,14359],{"className":14338},[274,321],[128,14340,14342,14356],{"className":14341},[278],[128,14343,14345],{"className":14344,"style":9078},[282],[128,14346,14347,14350],{"style":14045},[128,14348],{"className":14349,"style":291},[290],[128,14351,14353],{"className":14352},[299,300,301,298],[128,14354,11188],{"className":14355,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,14357,347],{"className":14358},[346],[128,14360,14362],{"className":14361},[278],[128,14363,14365],{"className":14364,"style":2692},[282],[128,14366],{},[128,14368,1848],{"className":14369},[1878],[128,14371,14373,14376],{"className":14372},[259],[128,14374,14256],{"className":14375,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,14377,14379],{"className":14378},[2660],[128,14380,14382,14402],{"className":14381},[274,321],[128,14383,14385,14399],{"className":14384},[278],[128,14386,14388],{"className":14387,"style":3223},[282],[128,14389,14390,14393],{"style":2673},[128,14391],{"className":14392,"style":291},[290],[128,14394,14396],{"className":14395},[299,300,301,298],[128,14397,3154],{"className":14398},[259,298],[128,14400,347],{"className":14401},[346],[128,14403,14405],{"className":14404},[278],[128,14406,14408],{"className":14407,"style":2692},[282],[128,14409],{},[128,14411,1795],{"className":14412},[1820],[128,14414],{"className":14415,"style":1824},[269],[128,14417,3159],{"className":14418},[3256],[128,14420],{"className":14421,"style":1824},[269],[128,14423,1795],{"className":14424},[1820],[128,14426],{"className":14427,"style":1824},[269],[128,14429,14431,14434],{"className":14430},[259],[128,14432,14256],{"className":14433,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,14435,14437],{"className":14436},[2660],[128,14438,14440,14460],{"className":14439},[274,321],[128,14441,14443,14457],{"className":14442},[278],[128,14444,14446],{"className":14445,"style":2670},[282],[128,14447,14448,14451],{"style":2673},[128,14449],{"className":14450,"style":291},[290],[128,14452,14454],{"className":14453},[299,300,301,298],[128,14455,3168],{"className":14456},[259,1815,298],[128,14458,347],{"className":14459},[346],[128,14461,14463],{"className":14462},[278],[128,14464,14466],{"className":14465,"style":2692},[282],[128,14467],{},[128,14469,1857],{"className":14470},[1894],[128,14472],{"className":14473,"style":1945},[269],[128,14475,2344],{"className":14476},[1949],[128,14478],{"className":14479,"style":1945},[269],[128,14481,14483,14487,14555,14558,14561,14564,14604,14607,14610],{"className":14482},[250],[128,14484],{"className":14485,"style":14486},[254],"height:1.104em;vertical-align:-0.2997em;",[128,14488,14491,14497],{"className":14489},[14490],"mop",[128,14492,14280],{"className":14493,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],"op-symbol","small-op","position:relative;top:0em;",[128,14498,14500],{"className":14499},[2660],[128,14501,14503,14546],{"className":14502},[274,321],[128,14504,14506,14543],{"className":14505},[278],[128,14507,14510,14531],{"className":14508,"style":14509},[282],"height:0.8043em;",[128,14511,14513,14516],{"style":14512},"top:-2.4003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,14514],{"className":14515,"style":291},[290],[128,14517,14519],{"className":14518},[299,300,301,298],[128,14520,14522,14525,14528],{"className":14521},[259,298],[128,14523,3409],{"className":14524},[259,1815,298],[128,14526,2344],{"className":14527},[1949,298],[128,14529,3154],{"className":14530},[259,298],[128,14532,14534,14537],{"style":14533},"top:-3.2029em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,14535],{"className":14536,"style":291},[290],[128,14538,14540],{"className":14539},[299,300,301,298],[128,14541,3168],{"className":14542},[259,1815,298],[128,14544,347],{"className":14545},[346],[128,14547,14549],{"className":14548},[278],[128,14550,14553],{"className":14551,"style":14552},[282],"height:0.2997em;",[128,14554],{},[128,14556],{"className":14557,"style":1824},[269],[128,14559,1844],{"className":14560,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,14562,1848],{"className":14563},[1878],[128,14565,14567,14570],{"className":14566},[259],[128,14568,14256],{"className":14569,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,14571,14573],{"className":14572},[2660],[128,14574,14576,14596],{"className":14575},[274,321],[128,14577,14579,14593],{"className":14578},[278],[128,14580,14582],{"className":14581,"style":3460},[282],[128,14583,14584,14587],{"style":2673},[128,14585],{"className":14586,"style":291},[290],[128,14588,14590],{"className":14589},[299,300,301,298],[128,14591,3409],{"className":14592},[259,1815,298],[128,14594,347],{"className":14595},[346],[128,14597,14599],{"className":14598},[278],[128,14600,14602],{"className":14601,"style":2692},[282],[128,14603],{},[128,14605],{"className":14606,"style":1945},[269],[128,14608,1916],{"className":14609},[1949],[128,14611],{"className":14612,"style":1945},[269],[128,14614,14616,14619,14666],{"className":14615},[250],[128,14617],{"className":14618,"style":1870},[254],[128,14620,14622,14629],{"className":14621},[259],[128,14623,14625],{"className":14624},[259],[128,14626,14628],{"className":14627},[259,12100],"pa",[128,14630,14632],{"className":14631},[2660],[128,14633,14635,14657],{"className":14634},[274,321],[128,14636,14638,14654],{"className":14637},[278],[128,14639,14642],{"className":14640,"style":14641},[282],"height:0.2175em;",[128,14643,14645,14648],{"style":14644},"top:-2.4559em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,14646],{"className":14647,"style":291},[290],[128,14649,14651],{"className":14650},[299,300,301,298],[128,14652,3409],{"className":14653},[259,1815,298],[128,14655,347],{"className":14656},[346],[128,14658,14660],{"className":14659},[278],[128,14661,14664],{"className":14662,"style":14663},[282],"height:0.2441em;",[128,14665],{},[128,14667,1857],{"className":14668},[1894],"\n即联合分布可写成每个变量在给定其父节点条件下的条件分布之乘积。",[11,14671,14672,14675,14676,14746,14747,14816,14817,2173,14893,14962,14963,15340],{},[6386,14673,14674],{},"证明梗概","：由于 ",[128,14677,14679,14697],{"className":14678,"translate":218},[217],[128,14680,14682],{"className":14681},[222],[224,14683,14684],{"xmlns":226},[228,14685,14686,14694],{},[231,14687,14688],{},[2605,14689,14690,14692],{},[1790,14691,4184],{},[1790,14693,3409],{},[238,14695,14696],{"encoding":240},"U_i",[128,14698,14700],{"className":14699,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14701,14703,14706],{"className":14702},[250],[128,14704],{"className":14705,"style":3592},[254],[128,14707,14709,14712],{"className":14708},[259],[128,14710,4184],{"className":14711,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,14713,14715],{"className":14714},[2660],[128,14716,14718,14738],{"className":14717},[274,321],[128,14719,14721,14735],{"className":14720},[278],[128,14722,14724],{"className":14723,"style":3460},[282],[128,14725,14726,14729],{"style":4311},[128,14727],{"className":14728,"style":291},[290],[128,14730,14732],{"className":14731},[299,300,301,298],[128,14733,3409],{"className":14734},[259,1815,298],[128,14736,347],{"className":14737},[346],[128,14739,14741],{"className":14740},[278],[128,14742,14744],{"className":14743,"style":2692},[282],[128,14745],{}," 相互独立，且 ",[128,14748,14750,14767],{"className":14749,"translate":218},[217],[128,14751,14753],{"className":14752},[222],[224,14754,14755],{"xmlns":226},[228,14756,14757,14765],{},[231,14758,14759],{},[2605,14760,14761,14763],{},[1790,14762,3071],{},[1790,14764,3409],{},[238,14766,3710],{"encoding":240},[128,14768,14770],{"className":14769,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14771,14773,14776],{"className":14772},[250],[128,14774],{"className":14775,"style":3592},[254],[128,14777,14779,14782],{"className":14778},[259],[128,14780,3071],{"className":14781,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,14783,14785],{"className":14784},[2660],[128,14786,14788,14808],{"className":14787},[274,321],[128,14789,14791,14805],{"className":14790},[278],[128,14792,14794],{"className":14793,"style":3460},[282],[128,14795,14796,14799],{"style":3226},[128,14797],{"className":14798,"style":291},[290],[128,14800,14802],{"className":14801},[299,300,301,298],[128,14803,3409],{"className":14804},[259,1815,298],[128,14806,347],{"className":14807},[346],[128,14809,14811],{"className":14810},[278],[128,14812,14814],{"className":14813,"style":2692},[282],[128,14815],{}," 仅是 ",[128,14818,14820,14841],{"className":14819,"translate":218},[217],[128,14821,14823],{"className":14822},[222],[224,14824,14825],{"xmlns":226},[228,14826,14827,14839],{},[231,14828,14829],{},[2605,14830,14831,14837],{},[231,14832,14833,14835],{},[1790,14834,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,14836,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,14838,3409],{},[238,14840,12343],{"encoding":240},[128,14842,14844],{"className":14843,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14845,14847,14850],{"className":14846},[250],[128,14848],{"className":14849,"style":3592},[254],[128,14851,14853,14859],{"className":14852},[259],[128,14854,14856],{"className":14855},[259],[128,14857,12101],{"className":14858},[259,12100],[128,14860,14862],{"className":14861},[2660],[128,14863,14865,14885],{"className":14864},[274,321],[128,14866,14868,14882],{"className":14867},[278],[128,14869,14871],{"className":14870,"style":3460},[282],[128,14872,14873,14876],{"style":12116},[128,14874],{"className":14875,"style":291},[290],[128,14877,14879],{"className":14878},[299,300,301,298],[128,14880,3409],{"className":14881},[259,1815,298],[128,14883,347],{"className":14884},[346],[128,14886,14888],{"className":14887},[278],[128,14889,14891],{"className":14890,"style":2692},[282],[128,14892],{},[128,14894,14896,14913],{"className":14895,"translate":218},[217],[128,14897,14899],{"className":14898},[222],[224,14900,14901],{"xmlns":226},[228,14902,14903,14911],{},[231,14904,14905],{},[2605,14906,14907,14909],{},[1790,14908,4184],{},[1790,14910,3409],{},[238,14912,14696],{"encoding":240},[128,14914,14916],{"className":14915,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,14917,14919,14922],{"className":14918},[250],[128,14920],{"className":14921,"style":3592},[254],[128,14923,14925,14928],{"className":14924},[259],[128,14926,4184],{"className":14927,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,14929,14931],{"className":14930},[2660],[128,14932,14934,14954],{"className":14933},[274,321],[128,14935,14937,14951],{"className":14936},[278],[128,14938,14940],{"className":14939,"style":3460},[282],[128,14941,14942,14945],{"style":4311},[128,14943],{"className":14944,"style":291},[290],[128,14946,14948],{"className":14947},[299,300,301,298],[128,14949,3409],{"className":14950},[259,1815,298],[128,14952,347],{"className":14953},[346],[128,14955,14957],{"className":14956},[278],[128,14958,14960],{"className":14959,"style":2692},[282],[128,14961],{}," 的函数，按图的拓扑序（即父节点排在子节点之前的节点序列）逐一代入，可归纳证明 ",[128,14964,14966,15036],{"className":14965,"translate":218},[217],[128,14967,14969],{"className":14968},[222],[224,14970,14971],{"xmlns":226},[228,14972,14973,15033],{},[231,14974,14975,14981,14983,14985,14987,14989,14991,14993,14999,15001,15007,15010,15016,15019,15021,15023],{},[2605,14976,14977,14979],{},[1790,14978,3071],{},[1790,14980,3409],{},[1793,14982,1982],{},[234,14984,1985],{},[234,14986,1985],{},[234,14988,1985],{},[1793,14990,1982],{},[1793,14992,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,14994,14995,14997],{},[1790,14996,3071],{},[1790,14998,3418],{},[1793,15000,10582],{},[2605,15002,15003,15005],{},[1790,15004,3071],{},[1790,15006,3418],{},[234,15008,15009],{}," 非 ",[2605,15011,15012,15014],{},[1790,15013,3071],{},[1790,15015,3409],{},[234,15017,15018],{}," 的后代",[1793,15020,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,15022,1916],{},[2605,15024,15025,15031],{},[231,15026,15027,15029],{},[1790,15028,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,15030,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,15032,3409],{},[238,15034,15035],{"encoding":240},"V_i \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp \\{V_j : V_j \\text{ 非 } V_i\\text{ 的后代}\\} \\mid \\mathrm{Pa}_i",[128,15037,15039,15100,15112,15170,15291],{"className":15038,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,15040,15042,15045,15085,15088,15091,15094,15097],{"className":15041},[250],[128,15043],{"className":15044,"style":8988},[254],[128,15046,15048,15051],{"className":15047},[259],[128,15049,3071],{"className":15050,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,15052,15054],{"className":15053},[2660],[128,15055,15057,15077],{"className":15056},[274,321],[128,15058,15060,15074],{"className":15059},[278],[128,15061,15063],{"className":15062,"style":3460},[282],[128,15064,15065,15068],{"style":3226},[128,15066],{"className":15067,"style":291},[290],[128,15069,15071],{"className":15070},[299,300,301,298],[128,15072,3409],{"className":15073},[259,1815,298],[128,15075,347],{"className":15076},[346],[128,15078,15080],{"className":15079},[278],[128,15081,15083],{"className":15082,"style":2692},[282],[128,15084],{},[128,15086],{"className":15087,"style":1945},[269],[128,15089,1982],{"className":15090},[1949],[128,15092],{"className":15093,"style":317},[269],[128,15095],{"className":15096,"style":317},[269],[128,15098],{"className":15099,"style":317},[269],[128,15101,15103,15106,15109],{"className":15102},[250],[128,15104],{"className":15105,"style":2006},[254],[128,15107,1982],{"className":15108},[1949],[128,15110],{"className":15111,"style":1945},[269],[128,15113,15115,15118,15121,15161,15164,15167],{"className":15114},[250],[128,15116],{"className":15117,"style":3438},[254],[128,15119,3146],{"className":15120},[1878],[128,15122,15124,15127],{"className":15123},[259],[128,15125,3071],{"className":15126,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,15128,15130],{"className":15129},[2660],[128,15131,15133,15153],{"className":15132},[274,321],[128,15134,15136,15150],{"className":15135},[278],[128,15137,15139],{"className":15138,"style":3460},[282],[128,15140,15141,15144],{"style":3226},[128,15142],{"className":15143,"style":291},[290],[128,15145,15147],{"className":15146},[299,300,301,298],[128,15148,3418],{"className":15149,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,15151,347],{"className":15152},[346],[128,15154,15156],{"className":15155},[278],[128,15157,15159],{"className":15158,"style":3528},[282],[128,15160],{},[128,15162],{"className":15163,"style":1945},[269],[128,15165,10582],{"className":15166},[1949],[128,15168],{"className":15169,"style":1945},[269],[128,15171,15173,15176,15216,15229,15269,15279,15282,15285,15288],{"className":15172},[250],[128,15174],{"className":15175,"style":3438},[254],[128,15177,15179,15182],{"className":15178},[259],[128,15180,3071],{"className":15181,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,15183,15185],{"className":15184},[2660],[128,15186,15188,15208],{"className":15187},[274,321],[128,15189,15191,15205],{"className":15190},[278],[128,15192,15194],{"className":15193,"style":3460},[282],[128,15195,15196,15199],{"style":3226},[128,15197],{"className":15198,"style":291},[290],[128,15200,15202],{"className":15201},[299,300,301,298],[128,15203,3418],{"className":15204,"style":3518},[259,1815,298],[128,15206,347],{"className":15207},[346],[128,15209,15211],{"className":15210},[278],[128,15212,15214],{"className":15213,"style":3528},[282],[128,15215],{},[128,15217,15219,15222,15226],{"className":15218},[259,260],[128,15220,5652],{"className":15221},[259],[128,15223,15225],{"className":15224},[259,9479],"非",[128,15227,5652],{"className":15228},[259],[128,15230,15232,15235],{"className":15231},[259],[128,15233,3071],{"className":15234,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,15236,15238],{"className":15237},[2660],[128,15239,15241,15261],{"className":15240},[274,321],[128,15242,15244,15258],{"className":15243},[278],[128,15245,15247],{"className":15246,"style":3460},[282],[128,15248,15249,15252],{"style":3226},[128,15250],{"className":15251,"style":291},[290],[128,15253,15255],{"className":15254},[299,300,301,298],[128,15256,3409],{"className":15257},[259,1815,298],[128,15259,347],{"className":15260},[346],[128,15262,15264],{"className":15263},[278],[128,15265,15267],{"className":15266,"style":2692},[282],[128,15268],{},[128,15270,15272,15275],{"className":15271},[259,260],[128,15273,5652],{"className":15274},[259],[128,15276,15278],{"className":15277},[259,9479],"的后代",[128,15280,3171],{"className":15281},[1894],[128,15283],{"className":15284,"style":1945},[269],[128,15286,1916],{"className":15287},[1949],[128,15289],{"className":15290,"style":1945},[269],[128,15292,15294,15297],{"className":15293},[250],[128,15295],{"className":15296,"style":3592},[254],[128,15298,15300,15306],{"className":15299},[259],[128,15301,15303],{"className":15302},[259],[128,15304,12101],{"className":15305},[259,12100],[128,15307,15309],{"className":15308},[2660],[128,15310,15312,15332],{"className":15311},[274,321],[128,15313,15315,15329],{"className":15314},[278],[128,15316,15318],{"className":15317,"style":3460},[282],[128,15319,15320,15323],{"style":12116},[128,15321],{"className":15322,"style":291},[290],[128,15324,15326],{"className":15325},[299,300,301,298],[128,15327,3409],{"className":15328},[259,1815,298],[128,15330,347],{"className":15331},[346],[128,15333,15335],{"className":15334},[278],[128,15336,15338],{"className":15337,"style":2692},[282],[128,15339],{},"，这正是定理 1.1 中马尔可夫性假设的来源，也是贝叶斯网络理论中「局部马尔可夫性」与「因子分解」等价性定理的因果版本。",[11,15342,15343,15344,15347],{},"这一定理揭示了 SCM 与传统贝叶斯网络的联系与区别：",[35,15345,15346],{},"二者在纯观测层面（第一层关联）诱导出相同的概率分解公式","，唯一的区别在于 SCM 额外赋予了每条边「直接原因」的因果语义，从而支持贝叶斯网络本身不具备的干预与反事实计算——这一区别将在第三部分具体展开。",[3038,15349,15351],{"id":15350},"_23-洒水器模型的-scm-表示","2.3 洒水器模型的 SCM 表示",[11,15353,15354,15355,2247],{},"沿用例 1.1 的因果图，一个具体的马尔可夫型 SCM 实例可定义如下。设内生变量均为二元 ",[128,15356,15358,15380],{"className":15357,"translate":218},[217],[128,15359,15361],{"className":15360},[222],[224,15362,15363],{"xmlns":226},[228,15364,15365,15377],{},[231,15366,15367,15369,15371,15373,15375],{},[1793,15368,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,15370,4187],{},[1793,15372,1795],{"separator":246},[3152,15374,3154],{},[1793,15376,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,15378,15379],{"encoding":240},"\\{0,1\\}",[128,15381,15383],{"className":15382,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,15384,15386,15389,15392,15395,15398,15401,15404],{"className":15385},[250],[128,15387],{"className":15388,"style":1870},[254],[128,15390,3146],{"className":15391},[1878],[128,15393,4187],{"className":15394},[259],[128,15396,1795],{"className":15397},[1820],[128,15399],{"className":15400,"style":1824},[269],[128,15402,3154],{"className":15403},[259],[128,15405,3171],{"className":15406},[1894],[128,15408,15411],{"className":15409,"translate":218},[15410],"katex-display",[128,15412,15414,16075],{"className":15413,"translate":218},[217],[128,15415,15417],{"className":15416},[222],[224,15418,15420],{"xmlns":226,"display":15419},"block",[228,15421,15422,16072],{},[15423,15424,15428,15511,15697,15898],"mtable",{"rowspacing":15425,"columnalign":15426,"columnspacing":15427},"0.25em","right 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&:= U_S, &U_S &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.3) \\\\\nR &:= \\mathbb{1}[S = 1] \\cdot U_R^{(1)} + \\mathbb{1}[S=0]\\cdot U_R^{(0)}, &U_R^{(1)} &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.8),\\ U_R^{(0)} \\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.1)\\\\\nSp &:= \\mathbb{1}[S=1]\\cdot U_{Sp}^{(1)} + \\mathbb{1}[S=0]\\cdot U_{Sp}^{(0)}, &U_{Sp}^{(1)} &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.1),\\ U_{Sp}^{(0)} \\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.6)\\\\\nW &:= \\max(R, Sp) \\cdot U_W + \\big(1-\\max(R,Sp)\\big)\\cdot U_W', &U_W &\\sim \\mathrm{Bernoulli}(0.95),\\ U_W' \\sim 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,[259,12100],[128,17499,1848],{"className":17500},[1878],[128,17502,15895],{"className":17503},[259],[128,17505,1857],{"className":17506},[1894],[128,17508,17509,17512],{"style":16147},[128,17510],{"className":17511,"style":16111},[290],[128,17513,17515,17518,17521,17524,17527,17533,17536,17539,17542,17545,17548,17551,17605,17608,17611,17614,17620,17623,17626],{"className":17514},[259],[128,17516],{"className":17517},[259],[128,17519],{"className":17520,"style":1945},[269],[128,17522,15478],{"className":17523},[1949],[128,17525],{"className":17526,"style":1945},[269],[128,17528,17530],{"className":17529},[259],[128,17531,17235],{"className":17532},[259,12100],[128,17534,1848],{"className":17535},[1878],[128,17537,16028],{"className":17538},[259],[128,17540,1857],{"className":17541},[1894],[128,17543,1795],{"className":17544},[1820],[128,17546,5652],{"className":17547},[269],[128,17549],{"className":17550,"style":1824},[269],[128,17552,17554,17557],{"className":17553},[259],[128,17555,4184],{"className":17556,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,17558,17560],{"className":17559},[2660],[128,17561,17563,17597],{"className":17562},[274,321],[128,17564,17566,17594],{"className":17565},[278],[128,17567,17569,17580],{"className":17568,"style":16877},[282],[128,17570,17571,17574],{"style":16880},[128,17572],{"className":17573,"style":291},[290],[128,17575,17577],{"className":17576},[299,300,301,298],[128,17578,5521],{"className":17579,"style":1874},[259,1815,298],[128,17581,17582,17585],{"style":16892},[128,17583],{"className":17584,"style":291},[290],[128,17586,17588],{"className":17587},[299,300,301,298],[128,17589,17591],{"className":17590},[259,298],[128,17592,2622],{"className":17593},[259,298],[128,17595,347],{"className":17596},[346],[128,17598,17600],{"className":17599},[278],[128,17601,17603],{"className":17602,"style":16914},[282],[128,17604],{},[128,17606],{"className":17607,"style":1945},[269],[128,17609,15478],{"className":17610},[1949],[128,17612],{"className":17613,"style":1945},[269],[128,17615,17617],{"className":17616},[259],[128,17618,17235],{"className":17619},[259,12100],[128,17621,1848],{"className":17622},[1878],[128,17624,16069],{"className":17625},[259],[128,17627,1857],{"className":17628},[1894],[128,17630,347],{"className":17631},[346],[128,17633,17635],{"className":17634},[278],[128,17636,17638],{"className":17637,"style":16166},[282],[128,17639],{},[11,17641,17642,17643,17671,17672,17700,17701,17704,17705,17733,17734,17762,17763,17791],{},"此处所有 ",[128,17644,17646,17659],{"className":17645,"translate":218},[217],[128,17647,17649],{"className":17648},[222],[224,17650,17651],{"xmlns":226},[228,17652,17653,17657],{},[231,17654,17655],{},[1790,17656,4184],{},[238,17658,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,17660,17662],{"className":17661,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17663,17665,17668],{"className":17664},[250],[128,17666],{"className":17667,"style":283},[254],[128,17669,4184],{"className":17670,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 变量相互独立。这一具体赋值把因果图 ",[128,17673,17675,17688],{"className":17674,"translate":218},[217],[128,17676,17678],{"className":17677},[222],[224,17679,17680],{"xmlns":226},[228,17681,17682,17686],{},[231,17683,17684],{},[1790,17685,3064],{},[238,17687,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,17689,17691],{"className":17690,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17692,17694,17697],{"className":17693},[250],[128,17695],{"className":17696,"style":283},[254],[128,17698,3064],{"className":17699},[259,1815]," 「填满」为一个可计算的生成过程：给定外生变量的一次采样（一次「自然实现」），内生变量的取值随之",[35,17702,17703],{},"唯一确定","。这正是结构方程「确定性」这一特征的体现——随机性完全由外生变量 ",[128,17706,17708,17721],{"className":17707,"translate":218},[217],[128,17709,17711],{"className":17710},[222],[224,17712,17713],{"xmlns":226},[228,17714,17715,17719],{},[231,17716,17717],{},[1790,17718,4184],{},[238,17720,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,17722,17724],{"className":17723,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17725,17727,17730],{"className":17726},[250],[128,17728],{"className":17729,"style":283},[254],[128,17731,4184],{"className":17732,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 承担，内生变量之间的关系在给定 ",[128,17735,17737,17750],{"className":17736,"translate":218},[217],[128,17738,17740],{"className":17739},[222],[224,17741,17742],{"xmlns":226},[228,17743,17744,17748],{},[231,17745,17746],{},[1790,17747,4184],{},[238,17749,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,17751,17753],{"className":17752,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17754,17756,17759],{"className":17755},[250],[128,17757],{"className":17758,"style":283},[254],[128,17760,4184],{"className":17761,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 后不再含有任何随机成分。这一设计并非技术上的简化，而是使后文反事实推理（第三部分 3.3 节）得以定义的必要前提：唯有把所有随机性封装进 ",[128,17764,17766,17779],{"className":17765,"translate":218},[217],[128,17767,17769],{"className":17768},[222],[224,17770,17771],{"xmlns":226},[228,17772,17773,17777],{},[231,17774,17775],{},[1790,17776,4184],{},[238,17778,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,17780,17782],{"className":17781,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17783,17785,17788],{"className":17784},[250],[128,17786],{"className":17787,"style":283},[254],[128,17789,4184],{"className":17790,"style":4296},[259,1815],"，「同一个体在不同假设情景下会如何」这一问题才有明确的数学对象可以对应。",[51,17793,17794],{"id":17794},"结构方程与因果计算",[11,17796,17797,17798,17842],{},"第二部分给出的 SCM 已经具备了计算观测分布 ",[128,17799,17801,17821],{"className":17800,"translate":218},[217],[128,17802,17804],{"className":17803},[222],[224,17805,17806],{"xmlns":226},[228,17807,17808,17818],{},[231,17809,17810,17812,17814,17816],{},[1790,17811,1844],{},[1793,17813,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,17815,3071],{},[1793,17817,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,17819,17820],{"encoding":240},"P(V)",[128,17822,17824],{"className":17823,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17825,17827,17830,17833,17836,17839],{"className":17826},[250],[128,17828],{"className":17829,"style":1870},[254],[128,17831,1844],{"className":17832,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,17834,1848],{"className":17835},[1878],[128,17837,3071],{"className":17838,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,17840,1857],{"className":17841},[1894]," 的全部要素。本部分讨论结构方程如何进一步支持第二、三层的因果计算。",[3038,17844,17846],{"id":17845},"_31-结构方程的非对称性","3.1 结构方程的非对称性",[64,17848,17849],{},[11,17850,17851,17854,17855,17923,17924,17990,17991,17994,17995,17998,17999,18027,18028,18056,18057,18165,18166,2553,18217,18245,18246,18249,18250,18278,18279,18307,18308,18311],{},[35,17852,17853],{},"定义 3.1（结构方程 vs. 代数方程）"," 形如 ",[128,17856,17858,17884],{"className":17857,"translate":218},[217],[128,17859,17861],{"className":17860},[222],[224,17862,17863],{"xmlns":226},[228,17864,17865,17881],{},[231,17866,17867,17869,17871,17873,17875,17877,17879],{},[1790,17868,1798],{},[1793,17870,10582],{},[1793,17872,2344],{},[1790,17874,7444],{},[1793,17876,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,17878,364],{},[1793,17880,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,17882,17883],{"encoding":240},"Y := f(X)",[128,17885,17887,17905],{"className":17886,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17888,17890,17893,17896,17899,17902],{"className":17889},[250],[128,17891],{"className":17892,"style":283},[254],[128,17894,1798],{"className":17895,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,17897],{"className":17898,"style":1945},[269],[128,17900,10618],{"className":17901},[1949],[128,17903],{"className":17904,"style":1945},[269],[128,17906,17908,17911,17914,17917,17920],{"className":17907},[250],[128,17909],{"className":17910,"style":1870},[254],[128,17912,7444],{"className":17913,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,17915,1848],{"className":17916},[1878],[128,17918,364],{"className":17919,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,17921,1857],{"className":17922},[1894]," 的结构方程与代数方程 ",[128,17925,17927,17951],{"className":17926,"translate":218},[217],[128,17928,17930],{"className":17929},[222],[224,17931,17932],{"xmlns":226},[228,17933,17934,17948],{},[231,17935,17936,17938,17940,17942,17944,17946],{},[1790,17937,1798],{},[1793,17939,2344],{},[1790,17941,7444],{},[1793,17943,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,17945,364],{},[1793,17947,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,17949,17950],{"encoding":240},"Y = f(X)",[128,17952,17954,17972],{"className":17953,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,17955,17957,17960,17963,17966,17969],{"className":17956},[250],[128,17958],{"className":17959,"style":283},[254],[128,17961,1798],{"className":17962,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,17964],{"className":17965,"style":1945},[269],[128,17967,2344],{"className":17968},[1949],[128,17970],{"className":17971,"style":1945},[269],[128,17973,17975,17978,17981,17984,17987],{"className":17974},[250],[128,17976],{"className":17977,"style":1870},[254],[128,17979,7444],{"className":17980,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,17982,1848],{"className":17983},[1878],[128,17985,364],{"className":17986,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,17988,1857],{"className":17989},[1894]," 在数值上等价，但语义不同：结构方程蕴含一种非对称的",[35,17992,17993],{},"生成关系","，规定右边变量的取值决定左边变量的取值，而这一决定关系",[35,17996,17997],{},"不可逆","——即便 ",[128,18000,18002,18015],{"className":18001,"translate":218},[217],[128,18003,18005],{"className":18004},[222],[224,18006,18007],{"xmlns":226},[228,18008,18009,18013],{},[231,18010,18011],{},[1790,18012,7444],{},[238,18014,7444],{"encoding":240},[128,18016,18018],{"className":18017,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18019,18021,18024],{"className":18020},[250],[128,18022],{"className":18023,"style":6176},[254],[128,18025,7444],{"className":18026,"style":7492},[259,1815]," 可逆，从 ",[128,18029,18031,18044],{"className":18030,"translate":218},[217],[128,18032,18034],{"className":18033},[222],[224,18035,18036],{"xmlns":226},[228,18037,18038,18042],{},[231,18039,18040],{},[1790,18041,2276],{},[238,18043,2276],{"encoding":240},[128,18045,18047],{"className":18046,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18048,18050,18053],{"className":18049},[250],[128,18051],{"className":18052,"style":8152},[254],[128,18054,2276],{"className":18055,"style":2305},[259,1815]," 反解出 ",[128,18058,18060,18092],{"className":18059,"translate":218},[217],[128,18061,18063],{"className":18062},[222],[224,18064,18065],{"xmlns":226},[228,18066,18067,18089],{},[231,18068,18069,18071,18073,18083,18085,18087],{},[1790,18070,2281],{},[1793,18072,2344],{},[2614,18074,18075,18077],{},[1790,18076,7444],{},[231,18078,18079,18081],{},[1793,18080,15953],{},[3152,18082,3154],{},[1793,18084,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,18086,2276],{},[1793,18088,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,18090,18091],{"encoding":240},"x = f^{-1}(y)",[128,18093,18095,18113],{"className":18094,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18096,18098,18101,18104,18107,18110],{"className":18097},[250],[128,18099],{"className":18100,"style":2377},[254],[128,18102,2281],{"className":18103},[259,1815],[128,18105],{"className":18106,"style":1945},[269],[128,18108,2344],{"className":18109},[1949],[128,18111],{"className":18112,"style":1945},[269],[128,18114,18116,18120,18156,18159,18162],{"className":18115},[250],[128,18117],{"className":18118,"style":18119},[254],"height:1.0641em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[128,18121,18123,18126],{"className":18122},[259],[128,18124,7444],{"className":18125,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,18127,18129],{"className":18128},[2660],[128,18130,18132],{"className":18131},[274],[128,18133,18135],{"className":18134},[278],[128,18136,18139],{"className":18137,"style":18138},[282],"height:0.8141em;",[128,18140,18141,18144],{"style":2732},[128,18142],{"className":18143,"style":291},[290],[128,18145,18147],{"className":18146},[299,300,301,298],[128,18148,18150,18153],{"className":18149},[259,298],[128,18151,15953],{"className":18152},[259,298],[128,18154,3154],{"className":18155},[259,298],[128,18157,1848],{"className":18158},[1878],[128,18160,2276],{"className":18161,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,18163,1857],{"className":18164},[1894]," 得到的也只是「给定 ",[128,18167,18169,18187],{"className":18168,"translate":218},[217],[128,18170,18172],{"className":18171},[222],[224,18173,18174],{"xmlns":226},[228,18175,18176,18184],{},[231,18177,18178,18180,18182],{},[1790,18179,1798],{},[1793,18181,2344],{},[1790,18183,2276],{},[238,18185,18186],{"encoding":240},"Y=y",[128,18188,18190,18208],{"className":18189,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18191,18193,18196,18199,18202,18205],{"className":18192},[250],[128,18194],{"className":18195,"style":283},[254],[128,18197,1798],{"className":18198,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18200],{"className":18201,"style":1945},[269],[128,18203,2344],{"className":18204},[1949],[128,18206],{"className":18207,"style":1945},[269],[128,18209,18211,18214],{"className":18210},[250],[128,18212],{"className":18213,"style":8152},[254],[128,18215,2276],{"className":18216,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,18218,18220,18233],{"className":18219,"translate":218},[217],[128,18221,18223],{"className":18222},[222],[224,18224,18225],{"xmlns":226},[228,18226,18227,18231],{},[231,18228,18229],{},[1790,18230,364],{},[238,18232,364],{"encoding":240},[128,18234,18236],{"className":18235,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18237,18239,18242],{"className":18238},[250],[128,18240],{"className":18241,"style":283},[254],[128,18243,364],{"className":18244,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的取值应为多少」这一",[35,18247,18248],{},"代数","关系，而非「改变 ",[128,18251,18253,18266],{"className":18252,"translate":218},[217],[128,18254,18256],{"className":18255},[222],[224,18257,18258],{"xmlns":226},[228,18259,18260,18264],{},[231,18261,18262],{},[1790,18263,364],{},[238,18265,364],{"encoding":240},[128,18267,18269],{"className":18268,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18270,18272,18275],{"className":18271},[250],[128,18273],{"className":18274,"style":283},[254],[128,18276,364],{"className":18277,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 会如何改变 ",[128,18280,18282,18295],{"className":18281,"translate":218},[217],[128,18283,18285],{"className":18284},[222],[224,18286,18287],{"xmlns":226},[228,18288,18289,18293],{},[231,18290,18291],{},[1790,18292,1798],{},[238,18294,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,18296,18298],{"className":18297,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18299,18301,18304],{"className":18300},[250],[128,18302],{"className":18303,"style":283},[254],[128,18305,1798],{"className":18306,"style":1828},[259,1815],"」这一",[35,18309,18310],{},"因果","关系的镜像。",[64,18313,18314],{},[11,18315,18316,18319,18320,18348,18349,18377,18378,18443,18444,18502,18503,18566,18567,18570,18571,18664,18665,1148,18668,18696,18697,18794,18795,18823,18824,18886,18887,893],{},[35,18317,18318],{},"例 3.1（欧姆定律的因果解读）"," 设某电路中电压源固定输出 ",[128,18321,18323,18336],{"className":18322,"translate":218},[217],[128,18324,18326],{"className":18325},[222],[224,18327,18328],{"xmlns":226},[228,18329,18330,18334],{},[231,18331,18332],{},[1790,18333,3071],{},[238,18335,3071],{"encoding":240},[128,18337,18339],{"className":18338,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18340,18342,18345],{"className":18341},[250],[128,18343],{"className":18344,"style":283},[254],[128,18346,3071],{"className":18347,"style":1828},[259,1815],"，电阻为 ",[128,18350,18352,18365],{"className":18351,"translate":218},[217],[128,18353,18355],{"className":18354},[222],[224,18356,18357],{"xmlns":226},[228,18358,18359,18363],{},[231,18360,18361],{},[1790,18362,5510],{},[238,18364,5510],{"encoding":240},[128,18366,18368],{"className":18367,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18369,18371,18374],{"className":18370},[250],[128,18372],{"className":18373,"style":283},[254],[128,18375,5510],{"className":18376,"style":5569},[259,1815],"，依据电路物理机制，电流由前两者共同决定：结构方程应写作\n",[128,18379,18381,18407],{"className":18380,"translate":218},[217],[128,18382,18384],{"className":18383},[222],[224,18385,18386],{"xmlns":226},[228,18387,18388,18404],{},[231,18389,18390,18393,18395,18397,18399,18402],{},[1790,18391,18392],{},"I",[1793,18394,10582],{},[1793,18396,2344],{},[1790,18398,3071],{},[1790,18400,18401],{"mathvariant":2620},"\u002F",[1790,18403,5510],{},[238,18405,18406],{"encoding":240},"I := V\u002FR",[128,18408,18410,18428],{"className":18409,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18411,18413,18416,18419,18422,18425],{"className":18412},[250],[128,18414],{"className":18415,"style":283},[254],[128,18417,18392],{"className":18418,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,18420],{"className":18421,"style":1945},[269],[128,18423,10618],{"className":18424},[1949],[128,18426],{"className":18427,"style":1945},[269],[128,18429,18431,18434,18437,18440],{"className":18430},[250],[128,18432],{"className":18433,"style":1870},[254],[128,18435,3071],{"className":18436,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18438,18401],{"className":18439},[259],[128,18441,5510],{"className":18442,"style":5569},[259,1815],"\n而非 ",[128,18445,18447,18469],{"className":18446,"translate":218},[217],[128,18448,18450],{"className":18449},[222],[224,18451,18452],{"xmlns":226},[228,18453,18454,18466],{},[231,18455,18456,18458,18460,18462,18464],{},[1790,18457,3071],{},[1793,18459,10582],{},[1793,18461,2344],{},[1790,18463,18392],{},[1790,18465,5510],{},[238,18467,18468],{"encoding":240},"V := IR",[128,18470,18472,18490],{"className":18471,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18473,18475,18478,18481,18484,18487],{"className":18474},[250],[128,18476],{"className":18477,"style":283},[254],[128,18479,3071],{"className":18480,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18482],{"className":18483,"style":1945},[269],[128,18485,10618],{"className":18486},[1949],[128,18488],{"className":18489,"style":1945},[269],[128,18491,18493,18496,18499],{"className":18492},[250],[128,18494],{"className":18495,"style":283},[254],[128,18497,18392],{"className":18498,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,18500,5510],{"className":18501,"style":5569},[259,1815]," 或 ",[128,18504,18506,18530],{"className":18505,"translate":218},[217],[128,18507,18509],{"className":18508},[222],[224,18510,18511],{"xmlns":226},[228,18512,18513,18527],{},[231,18514,18515,18517,18519,18521,18523,18525],{},[1790,18516,5510],{},[1793,18518,10582],{},[1793,18520,2344],{},[1790,18522,3071],{},[1790,18524,18401],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,18526,18392],{},[238,18528,18529],{"encoding":240},"R := V\u002FI",[128,18531,18533,18551],{"className":18532,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18534,18536,18539,18542,18545,18548],{"className":18535},[250],[128,18537],{"className":18538,"style":283},[254],[128,18540,5510],{"className":18541,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,18543],{"className":18544,"style":1945},[269],[128,18546,10618],{"className":18547},[1949],[128,18549],{"className":18550,"style":1945},[269],[128,18552,18554,18557,18560,18563],{"className":18553},[250],[128,18555],{"className":18556,"style":1870},[254],[128,18558,3071],{"className":18559,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18561,18401],{"className":18562},[259],[128,18564,18392],{"className":18565,"style":1816},[259,1815],"。三个代数式在数值上完全等价，但只有前者正确刻画了该电路的",[35,18568,18569],{},"生成机制","。这一区分的实践意义在于：若外部操作者通过某种装置强行将电流设定为 ",[128,18572,18574,18596],{"className":18573,"translate":218},[217],[128,18575,18577],{"className":18576},[222],[224,18578,18579],{"xmlns":226},[228,18580,18581,18593],{},[231,18582,18583,18585,18587],{},[1790,18584,18392],{},[1793,18586,2344],{},[2605,18588,18589,18591],{},[1790,18590,3409],{},[3152,18592,4187],{},[238,18594,18595],{"encoding":240},"I = i_0",[128,18597,18599,18617],{"className":18598,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18600,18602,18605,18608,18611,18614],{"className":18601},[250],[128,18603],{"className":18604,"style":283},[254],[128,18606,18392],{"className":18607,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,18609],{"className":18610,"style":1945},[269],[128,18612,2344],{"className":18613},[1949],[128,18615],{"className":18616,"style":1945},[269],[128,18618,18620,18624],{"className":18619},[250],[128,18621],{"className":18622,"style":18623},[254],"height:0.8095em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[128,18625,18627,18630],{"className":18626},[259],[128,18628,3409],{"className":18629},[259,1815],[128,18631,18633],{"className":18632},[2660],[128,18634,18636,18656],{"className":18635},[274,321],[128,18637,18639,18653],{"className":18638},[278],[128,18640,18642],{"className":18641,"style":3223},[282],[128,18643,18644,18647],{"style":9009},[128,18645],{"className":18646,"style":291},[290],[128,18648,18650],{"className":18649},[299,300,301,298],[128,18651,4187],{"className":18652},[259,298],[128,18654,347],{"className":18655},[346],[128,18657,18659],{"className":18658},[278],[128,18660,18662],{"className":18661,"style":2692},[282],[128,18663],{},"（例如接入恒流源），依据正确的结构方程，会导致",[35,18666,18667],{},"电压",[128,18669,18671,18684],{"className":18670,"translate":218},[217],[128,18672,18674],{"className":18673},[222],[224,18675,18676],{"xmlns":226},[228,18677,18678,18682],{},[231,18679,18680],{},[1790,18681,3071],{},[238,18683,3071],{"encoding":240},[128,18685,18687],{"className":18686,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18688,18690,18693],{"className":18689},[250],[128,18691],{"className":18692,"style":283},[254],[128,18694,3071],{"className":18695,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 相应改变以满足 ",[128,18698,18700,18724],{"className":18699,"translate":218},[217],[128,18701,18703],{"className":18702},[222],[224,18704,18705],{"xmlns":226},[228,18706,18707,18721],{},[231,18708,18709,18711,18713,18719],{},[1790,18710,3071],{},[1793,18712,2344],{},[2605,18714,18715,18717],{},[1790,18716,3409],{},[3152,18718,4187],{},[1790,18720,5510],{},[238,18722,18723],{"encoding":240},"V = i_0 R",[128,18725,18727,18745],{"className":18726,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18728,18730,18733,18736,18739,18742],{"className":18729},[250],[128,18731],{"className":18732,"style":283},[254],[128,18734,3071],{"className":18735,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18737],{"className":18738,"style":1945},[269],[128,18740,2344],{"className":18741},[1949],[128,18743],{"className":18744,"style":1945},[269],[128,18746,18748,18751,18791],{"className":18747},[250],[128,18749],{"className":18750,"style":3592},[254],[128,18752,18754,18757],{"className":18753},[259],[128,18755,3409],{"className":18756},[259,1815],[128,18758,18760],{"className":18759},[2660],[128,18761,18763,18783],{"className":18762},[274,321],[128,18764,18766,18780],{"className":18765},[278],[128,18767,18769],{"className":18768,"style":3223},[282],[128,18770,18771,18774],{"style":9009},[128,18772],{"className":18773,"style":291},[290],[128,18775,18777],{"className":18776},[299,300,301,298],[128,18778,4187],{"className":18779},[259,298],[128,18781,347],{"className":18782},[346],[128,18784,18786],{"className":18785},[278],[128,18787,18789],{"className":18788,"style":2692},[282],[128,18790],{},[128,18792,5510],{"className":18793,"style":5569},[259,1815],"，而电阻 ",[128,18796,18798,18811],{"className":18797,"translate":218},[217],[128,18799,18801],{"className":18800},[222],[224,18802,18803],{"xmlns":226},[228,18804,18805,18809],{},[231,18806,18807],{},[1790,18808,5510],{},[238,18810,5510],{"encoding":240},[128,18812,18814],{"className":18813,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18815,18817,18820],{"className":18816},[250],[128,18818],{"className":18819,"style":283},[254],[128,18821,5510],{"className":18822,"style":5569},[259,1815]," 不受影响；若错误地采用 ",[128,18825,18827,18850],{"className":18826,"translate":218},[217],[128,18828,18830],{"className":18829},[222],[224,18831,18832],{"xmlns":226},[228,18833,18834,18848],{},[231,18835,18836,18838,18840,18842,18844,18846],{},[1790,18837,5510],{},[1793,18839,10582],{},[1793,18841,2344],{},[1790,18843,3071],{},[1790,18845,18401],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,18847,18392],{},[238,18849,18529],{"encoding":240},[128,18851,18853,18871],{"className":18852,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18854,18856,18859,18862,18865,18868],{"className":18855},[250],[128,18857],{"className":18858,"style":283},[254],[128,18860,5510],{"className":18861,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,18863],{"className":18864,"style":1945},[269],[128,18866,10618],{"className":18867},[1949],[128,18869],{"className":18870,"style":1945},[269],[128,18872,18874,18877,18880,18883],{"className":18873},[250],[128,18875],{"className":18876,"style":1870},[254],[128,18878,3071],{"className":18879,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18881,18401],{"className":18882},[259],[128,18884,18392],{"className":18885,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 作为该情境下的结构方程，则会得出「电阻会因电流改变而改变」这一荒谬结论。",[35,18888,18889],{},"选对结构方程的方向，等价于选对了系统中「谁是自变量、谁是因变量」这一物理事实，这一信息无法从代数关系本身获得，必须来自对系统机制的外部知识",[3038,18891,18893],{"id":18892},"_32-干预与-do-算子","3.2 干预与 do-算子",[64,18895,18896],{},[11,18897,18898,12783,18901,19013,19014,19065,19066,19136,19137,1148,19140,19334,19335,19565,19566,19594,19595,19782],{},[35,18899,18900],{},"定义 3.2（干预，do-operator）",[128,18902,18904,18944],{"className":18903,"translate":218},[217],[128,18905,18907],{"className":18906},[222],[224,18908,18909],{"xmlns":226},[228,18910,18911,18941],{},[231,18912,18913,18915,18917,18919,18921,18923,18925,18927,18929,18931,18933,18935,18937,18939],{},[1790,18914,11188],{},[1793,18916,2344],{},[1793,18918,4171],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,18920,4184],{},[1793,18922,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,18924,3071],{},[1793,18926,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,18928,11203],{},[1793,18930,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,18932,1844],{},[1793,18934,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,18936,4184],{},[1793,18938,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,18940,4219],{"stretchy":1847},[238,18942,18943],{"encoding":240},"M = \\langle U,V,F,P(U)\\rangle",[128,18945,18947,18965],{"className":18946,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,18948,18950,18953,18956,18959,18962],{"className":18949},[250],[128,18951],{"className":18952,"style":283},[254],[128,18954,11188],{"className":18955,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,18957],{"className":18958,"style":1945},[269],[128,18960,2344],{"className":18961},[1949],[128,18963],{"className":18964,"style":1945},[269],[128,18966,18968,18971,18974,18977,18980,18983,18986,18989,18992,18995,18998,19001,19004,19007,19010],{"className":18967},[250],[128,18969],{"className":18970,"style":1870},[254],[128,18972,4171],{"className":18973},[1878],[128,18975,4184],{"className":18976,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,18978,1795],{"className":18979},[1820],[128,18981],{"className":18982,"style":1824},[269],[128,18984,3071],{"className":18985,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,18987,1795],{"className":18988},[1820],[128,18990],{"className":18991,"style":1824},[269],[128,18993,11203],{"className":18994,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,18996,1795],{"className":18997},[1820],[128,18999],{"className":19000,"style":1824},[269],[128,19002,1844],{"className":19003,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,19005,1848],{"className":19006},[1878],[128,19008,4184],{"className":19009,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19011,11288],{"className":19012},[1894],"，对变量 ",[128,19015,19017,19035],{"className":19016,"translate":218},[217],[128,19018,19020],{"className":19019},[222],[224,19021,19022],{"xmlns":226},[228,19023,19024,19032],{},[231,19025,19026,19028,19030],{},[1790,19027,364],{},[1793,19029,3423],{},[1790,19031,3071],{},[238,19033,19034],{"encoding":240},"X \\in V",[128,19036,19038,19056],{"className":19037,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19039,19041,19044,19047,19050,19053],{"className":19040},[250],[128,19042],{"className":19043,"style":8365},[254],[128,19045,364],{"className":19046,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,19048],{"className":19049,"style":1945},[269],[128,19051,3423],{"className":19052},[1949],[128,19054],{"className":19055,"style":1945},[269],[128,19057,19059,19062],{"className":19058},[250],[128,19060],{"className":19061,"style":283},[254],[128,19063,3071],{"className":19064,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 施加干预 ",[128,19067,19069,19094],{"className":19068,"translate":218},[217],[128,19070,19072],{"className":19071},[222],[224,19073,19074],{"xmlns":226},[228,19075,19076,19092],{},[231,19077,19078,19080,19082,19084,19086,19088,19090],{},[1790,19079,2438],{},[1790,19081,2441],{},[1793,19083,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19085,364],{},[1793,19087,2344],{},[1790,19089,2281],{},[1793,19091,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,19093,9799],{"encoding":240},[128,19095,19097,19124],{"className":19096,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19098,19100,19103,19106,19109,19112,19115,19118,19121],{"className":19099},[250],[128,19101],{"className":19102,"style":1870},[254],[128,19104,2438],{"className":19105},[259,1815],[128,19107,2441],{"className":19108},[259,1815],[128,19110,1848],{"className":19111},[1878],[128,19113,364],{"className":19114,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,19116],{"className":19117,"style":1945},[269],[128,19119,2344],{"className":19120},[1949],[128,19122],{"className":19123,"style":1945},[269],[128,19125,19127,19130,19133],{"className":19126},[250],[128,19128],{"className":19129,"style":1870},[254],[128,19131,2281],{"className":19132},[259,1815],[128,19134,1857],{"className":19135},[1894],"，得到一个新的",[35,19138,19139],{},"子模型（submodel）",[128,19141,19143,19191],{"className":19142,"translate":218},[217],[128,19144,19146],{"className":19145},[222],[224,19147,19148],{"xmlns":226},[228,19149,19150,19188],{},[231,19151,19152,19158,19160,19162,19164,19166,19168,19170,19176,19178,19180,19182,19184,19186],{},[2605,19153,19154,19156],{},[1790,19155,11188],{},[1790,19157,2281],{},[1793,19159,2344],{},[1793,19161,4171],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19163,4184],{},[1793,19165,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,19167,3071],{},[1793,19169,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,19171,19172,19174],{},[1790,19173,11203],{},[1790,19175,2281],{},[1793,19177,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,19179,1844],{},[1793,19181,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19183,4184],{},[1793,19185,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,19187,4219],{"stretchy":1847},[238,19189,19190],{"encoding":240},"M_x = \\langle U, V, F_x, P(U)\\rangle",[128,19192,19194,19249],{"className":19193,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19195,19197,19200,19240,19243,19246],{"className":19196},[250],[128,19198],{"className":19199,"style":3592},[254],[128,19201,19203,19206],{"className":19202},[259],[128,19204,11188],{"className":19205,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19207,19209],{"className":19208},[2660],[128,19210,19212,19232],{"className":19211},[274,321],[128,19213,19215,19229],{"className":19214},[278],[128,19216,19218],{"className":19217,"style":2670},[282],[128,19219,19220,19223],{"style":4311},[128,19221],{"className":19222,"style":291},[290],[128,19224,19226],{"className":19225},[299,300,301,298],[128,19227,2281],{"className":19228},[259,1815,298],[128,19230,347],{"className":19231},[346],[128,19233,19235],{"className":19234},[278],[128,19236,19238],{"className":19237,"style":2692},[282],[128,19239],{},[128,19241],{"className":19242,"style":1945},[269],[128,19244,2344],{"className":19245},[1949],[128,19247],{"className":19248,"style":1945},[269],[128,19250,19252,19255,19258,19261,19264,19267,19270,19273,19276,19316,19319,19322,19325,19328,19331],{"className":19251},[250],[128,19253],{"className":19254,"style":1870},[254],[128,19256,4171],{"className":19257},[1878],[128,19259,4184],{"className":19260,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19262,1795],{"className":19263},[1820],[128,19265],{"className":19266,"style":1824},[269],[128,19268,3071],{"className":19269,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,19271,1795],{"className":19272},[1820],[128,19274],{"className":19275,"style":1824},[269],[128,19277,19279,19282],{"className":19278},[259],[128,19280,11203],{"className":19281,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,19283,19285],{"className":19284},[2660],[128,19286,19288,19308],{"className":19287},[274,321],[128,19289,19291,19305],{"className":19290},[278],[128,19292,19294],{"className":19293,"style":2670},[282],[128,19295,19296,19299],{"style":14045},[128,19297],{"className":19298,"style":291},[290],[128,19300,19302],{"className":19301},[299,300,301,298],[128,19303,2281],{"className":19304},[259,1815,298],[128,19306,347],{"className":19307},[346],[128,19309,19311],{"className":19310},[278],[128,19312,19314],{"className":19313,"style":2692},[282],[128,19315],{},[128,19317,1795],{"className":19318},[1820],[128,19320],{"className":19321,"style":1824},[269],[128,19323,1844],{"className":19324,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,19326,1848],{"className":19327},[1878],[128,19329,4184],{"className":19330,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19332,11288],{"className":19333},[1894],"，其中\n",[128,19336,19338,19391],{"className":19337,"translate":218},[217],[128,19339,19341],{"className":19340},[222],[224,19342,19343],{"xmlns":226},[228,19344,19345,19388],{},[231,19346,19347,19353,19355,19357,19359,19361,19363,19369,19371,19373,19376,19378,19380,19382,19384,19386],{},[2605,19348,19349,19351],{},[1790,19350,11203],{},[1790,19352,2281],{},[1793,19354,2344],{},[1793,19356,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19358,11203],{},[1793,19360,11970],{},[1793,19362,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,19364,19365,19367],{},[1790,19366,7444],{},[1790,19368,364],{},[1793,19370,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,19372,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,19374,19375],{},"∪",[1793,19377,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19379,364],{},[1793,19381,10582],{},[1793,19383,2344],{},[1790,19385,2281],{},[1793,19387,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,19389,19390],{"encoding":240},"F_x = (F \\setminus \\{f_X\\}) \\cup \\{X := x\\}",[128,19392,19394,19449,19470,19532,19553],{"className":19393,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19395,19397,19400,19440,19443,19446],{"className":19396},[250],[128,19398],{"className":19399,"style":3592},[254],[128,19401,19403,19406],{"className":19402},[259],[128,19404,11203],{"className":19405,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,19407,19409],{"className":19408},[2660],[128,19410,19412,19432],{"className":19411},[274,321],[128,19413,19415,19429],{"className":19414},[278],[128,19416,19418],{"className":19417,"style":2670},[282],[128,19419,19420,19423],{"style":14045},[128,19421],{"className":19422,"style":291},[290],[128,19424,19426],{"className":19425},[299,300,301,298],[128,19427,2281],{"className":19428},[259,1815,298],[128,19430,347],{"className":19431},[346],[128,19433,19435],{"className":19434},[278],[128,19436,19438],{"className":19437,"style":2692},[282],[128,19439],{},[128,19441],{"className":19442,"style":1945},[269],[128,19444,2344],{"className":19445},[1949],[128,19447],{"className":19448,"style":1945},[269],[128,19450,19452,19455,19458,19461,19464,19467],{"className":19451},[250],[128,19453],{"className":19454,"style":1870},[254],[128,19456,1848],{"className":19457},[1878],[128,19459,11203],{"className":19460,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,19462],{"className":19463,"style":1828},[269],[128,19465,11970],{"className":19466},[3375],[128,19468],{"className":19469,"style":1828},[269],[128,19471,19473,19476,19479,19519,19523,19526,19529],{"className":19472},[250],[128,19474],{"className":19475,"style":1870},[254],[128,19477,3146],{"className":19478},[1878],[128,19480,19482,19485],{"className":19481},[259],[128,19483,7444],{"className":19484,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,19486,19488],{"className":19487},[2660],[128,19489,19491,19511],{"className":19490},[274,321],[128,19492,19494,19508],{"className":19493},[278],[128,19495,19497],{"className":19496,"style":9078},[282],[128,19498,19499,19502],{"style":11742},[128,19500],{"className":19501,"style":291},[290],[128,19503,19505],{"className":19504},[299,300,301,298],[128,19506,364],{"className":19507,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,19509,347],{"className":19510},[346],[128,19512,19514],{"className":19513},[278],[128,19515,19517],{"className":19516,"style":2692},[282],[128,19518],{},[128,19520,19522],{"className":19521},[1894],"})",[128,19524],{"className":19525,"style":1828},[269],[128,19527,19375],{"className":19528},[3375],[128,19530],{"className":19531,"style":1828},[269],[128,19533,19535,19538,19541,19544,19547,19550],{"className":19534},[250],[128,19536],{"className":19537,"style":1870},[254],[128,19539,3146],{"className":19540},[1878],[128,19542,364],{"className":19543,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,19545],{"className":19546,"style":1945},[269],[128,19548,10618],{"className":19549},[1949],[128,19551],{"className":19552,"style":1945},[269],[128,19554,19556,19559,19562],{"className":19555},[250],[128,19557],{"className":19558,"style":1870},[254],[128,19560,2281],{"className":19561},[259,1815],[128,19563,3171],{"className":19564},[1894],"\n即把 ",[128,19567,19569,19582],{"className":19568,"translate":218},[217],[128,19570,19572],{"className":19571},[222],[224,19573,19574],{"xmlns":226},[228,19575,19576,19580],{},[231,19577,19578],{},[1790,19579,364],{},[238,19581,364],{"encoding":240},[128,19583,19585],{"className":19584,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19586,19588,19591],{"className":19587},[250],[128,19589],{"className":19590,"style":283},[254],[128,19592,364],{"className":19593,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 原有的结构方程 ",[128,19596,19598,19638],{"className":19597,"translate":218},[217],[128,19599,19601],{"className":19600},[222],[224,19602,19603],{"xmlns":226},[228,19604,19605,19635],{},[231,19606,19607,19613,19615,19625,19627,19633],{},[2605,19608,19609,19611],{},[1790,19610,7444],{},[1790,19612,364],{},[1793,19614,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,19616,19617,19623],{},[231,19618,19619,19621],{},[1790,19620,1844],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,19622,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,19624,364],{},[1793,19626,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,19628,19629,19631],{},[1790,19630,4184],{},[1790,19632,364],{},[1793,19634,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,19636,19637],{"encoding":240},"f_X(\\mathrm{Pa}_X, U_X)",[128,19639,19641],{"className":19640,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19642,19644,19647,19687,19690,19733,19736,19739,19779],{"className":19643},[250],[128,19645],{"className":19646,"style":1870},[254],[128,19648,19650,19653],{"className":19649},[259],[128,19651,7444],{"className":19652,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,19654,19656],{"className":19655},[2660],[128,19657,19659,19679],{"className":19658},[274,321],[128,19660,19662,19676],{"className":19661},[278],[128,19663,19665],{"className":19664,"style":9078},[282],[128,19666,19667,19670],{"style":11742},[128,19668],{"className":19669,"style":291},[290],[128,19671,19673],{"className":19672},[299,300,301,298],[128,19674,364],{"className":19675,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,19677,347],{"className":19678},[346],[128,19680,19682],{"className":19681},[278],[128,19683,19685],{"className":19684,"style":2692},[282],[128,19686],{},[128,19688,1848],{"className":19689},[1878],[128,19691,19693,19699],{"className":19692},[259],[128,19694,19696],{"className":19695},[259],[128,19697,12101],{"className":19698},[259,12100],[128,19700,19702],{"className":19701},[2660],[128,19703,19705,19725],{"className":19704},[274,321],[128,19706,19708,19722],{"className":19707},[278],[128,19709,19711],{"className":19710,"style":9078},[282],[128,19712,19713,19716],{"style":12116},[128,19714],{"className":19715,"style":291},[290],[128,19717,19719],{"className":19718},[299,300,301,298],[128,19720,364],{"className":19721,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,19723,347],{"className":19724},[346],[128,19726,19728],{"className":19727},[278],[128,19729,19731],{"className":19730,"style":2692},[282],[128,19732],{},[128,19734,1795],{"className":19735},[1820],[128,19737],{"className":19738,"style":1824},[269],[128,19740,19742,19745],{"className":19741},[259],[128,19743,4184],{"className":19744,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19746,19748],{"className":19747},[2660],[128,19749,19751,19771],{"className":19750},[274,321],[128,19752,19754,19768],{"className":19753},[278],[128,19755,19757],{"className":19756,"style":9078},[282],[128,19758,19759,19762],{"style":4311},[128,19760],{"className":19761,"style":291},[290],[128,19763,19765],{"className":19764},[299,300,301,298],[128,19766,364],{"className":19767,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,19769,347],{"className":19770},[346],[128,19772,19774],{"className":19773},[278],[128,19775,19777],{"className":19776,"style":2692},[282],[128,19778],{},[128,19780,1857],{"className":19781},[1894]," 整体替换为常量赋值，其余所有方程保持不变。",[64,19784,19785],{},[11,19786,19787,19790,19791,19819,19820,19890,19891,19961,19962],{},[35,19788,19789],{},"定义 3.3（干预分布）"," 变量 ",[128,19792,19794,19807],{"className":19793,"translate":218},[217],[128,19795,19797],{"className":19796},[222],[224,19798,19799],{"xmlns":226},[228,19800,19801,19805],{},[231,19802,19803],{},[1790,19804,1798],{},[238,19806,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,19808,19810],{"className":19809,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19811,19813,19816],{"className":19812},[250],[128,19814],{"className":19815,"style":283},[254],[128,19817,1798],{"className":19818,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 在干预 ",[128,19821,19823,19848],{"className":19822,"translate":218},[217],[128,19824,19826],{"className":19825},[222],[224,19827,19828],{"xmlns":226},[228,19829,19830,19846],{},[231,19831,19832,19834,19836,19838,19840,19842,19844],{},[1790,19833,2438],{},[1790,19835,2441],{},[1793,19837,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19839,364],{},[1793,19841,2344],{},[1790,19843,2281],{},[1793,19845,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,19847,9799],{"encoding":240},[128,19849,19851,19878],{"className":19850,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19852,19854,19857,19860,19863,19866,19869,19872,19875],{"className":19853},[250],[128,19855],{"className":19856,"style":1870},[254],[128,19858,2438],{"className":19859},[259,1815],[128,19861,2441],{"className":19862},[259,1815],[128,19864,1848],{"className":19865},[1878],[128,19867,364],{"className":19868,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,19870],{"className":19871,"style":1945},[269],[128,19873,2344],{"className":19874},[1949],[128,19876],{"className":19877,"style":1945},[269],[128,19879,19881,19884,19887],{"className":19880},[250],[128,19882],{"className":19883,"style":1870},[254],[128,19885,2281],{"className":19886},[259,1815],[128,19888,1857],{"className":19889},[1894]," 下的分布，定义为子模型 ",[128,19892,19894,19912],{"className":19893,"translate":218},[217],[128,19895,19897],{"className":19896},[222],[224,19898,19899],{"xmlns":226},[228,19900,19901,19909],{},[231,19902,19903],{},[2605,19904,19905,19907],{},[1790,19906,11188],{},[1790,19908,2281],{},[238,19910,19911],{"encoding":240},"M_x",[128,19913,19915],{"className":19914,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,19916,19918,19921],{"className":19917},[250],[128,19919],{"className":19920,"style":3592},[254],[128,19922,19924,19927],{"className":19923},[259],[128,19925,11188],{"className":19926,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,19928,19930],{"className":19929},[2660],[128,19931,19933,19953],{"className":19932},[274,321],[128,19934,19936,19950],{"className":19935},[278],[128,19937,19939],{"className":19938,"style":2670},[282],[128,19940,19941,19944],{"style":4311},[128,19942],{"className":19943,"style":291},[290],[128,19945,19947],{"className":19946},[299,300,301,298],[128,19948,2281],{"className":19949},[259,1815,298],[128,19951,347],{"className":19952},[346],[128,19954,19956],{"className":19955},[278],[128,19957,19959],{"className":19958,"style":2692},[282],[128,19960],{}," 的诱导分布：\n",[128,19963,19965,20017],{"className":19964,"translate":218},[217],[128,19966,19968],{"className":19967},[222],[224,19969,19970],{"xmlns":226},[228,19971,19972,20014],{},[231,19973,19974,19976,19978,19980,19982,19984,19986,19988,19990,19992,19994,19996,19998,20008,20010,20012],{},[1790,19975,1844],{},[1793,19977,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19979,2276],{},[1793,19981,1916],{},[1790,19983,2438],{},[1790,19985,2441],{},[1793,19987,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,19989,2281],{},[1793,19991,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,19993,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,19995,10582],{},[1793,19997,2344],{},[2605,19999,20000,20002],{},[1790,20001,1844],{},[2605,20003,20004,20006],{},[1790,20005,11188],{},[1790,20007,2281],{},[1793,20009,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,20011,2276],{},[1793,20013,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,20015,20016],{"encoding":240},"P(y \\mid do(x)) := P_{M_x}(y)",[128,20018,20020,20044,20074],{"className":20019,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20021,20023,20026,20029,20032,20035,20038,20041],{"className":20022},[250],[128,20024],{"className":20025,"style":1870},[254],[128,20027,1844],{"className":20028,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,20030,1848],{"className":20031},[1878],[128,20033,2276],{"className":20034,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,20036],{"className":20037,"style":1945},[269],[128,20039,1916],{"className":20040},[1949],[128,20042],{"className":20043,"style":1945},[269],[128,20045,20047,20050,20053,20056,20059,20062,20065,20068,20071],{"className":20046},[250],[128,20048],{"className":20049,"style":1870},[254],[128,20051,2438],{"className":20052},[259,1815],[128,20054,2441],{"className":20055},[259,1815],[128,20057,1848],{"className":20058},[1878],[128,20060,2281],{"className":20061},[259,1815],[128,20063,2501],{"className":20064},[1894],[128,20066],{"className":20067,"style":1945},[269],[128,20069,10618],{"className":20070},[1949],[128,20072],{"className":20073,"style":1945},[269],[128,20075,20077,20081,20167,20170,20173],{"className":20076},[250],[128,20078],{"className":20079,"style":20080},[254],"height:1.0001em;vertical-align:-0.2501em;",[128,20082,20084,20087],{"className":20083},[259],[128,20085,1844],{"className":20086,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,20088,20090],{"className":20089},[2660],[128,20091,20093,20158],{"className":20092},[274,321],[128,20094,20096,20155],{"className":20095},[278],[128,20097,20099],{"className":20098,"style":9078},[282],[128,20100,20101,20104],{"style":14045},[128,20102],{"className":20103,"style":291},[290],[128,20105,20107],{"className":20106},[299,300,301,298],[128,20108,20110],{"className":20109},[259,298],[128,20111,20113,20116],{"className":20112},[259,298],[128,20114,11188],{"className":20115,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,20117,20119],{"className":20118},[2660],[128,20120,20122,20146],{"className":20121},[274,321],[128,20123,20125,20143],{"className":20124},[278],[128,20126,20129],{"className":20127,"style":20128},[282],"height:0.1645em;",[128,20130,20132,20136],{"style":20131},"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[128,20133],{"className":20134,"style":20135},[290],"height:2.5em;",[128,20137,20140],{"className":20138},[299,20139,16807,298],"reset-size3",[128,20141,2281],{"className":20142},[259,1815,298],[128,20144,347],{"className":20145},[346],[128,20147,20149],{"className":20148},[278],[128,20150,20153],{"className":20151,"style":20152},[282],"height:0.143em;",[128,20154],{},[128,20156,347],{"className":20157},[346],[128,20159,20161],{"className":20160},[278],[128,20162,20165],{"className":20163,"style":20164},[282],"height:0.2501em;",[128,20166],{},[128,20168,1848],{"className":20169},[1878],[128,20171,2276],{"className":20172,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,20174,1857],{"className":20175},[1894],[11,20177,20178,20181,20182,20252,20253,20281,20282,20310,20311,20339,20340,20457,20458,20486,20487,20515],{},[35,20179,20180],{},"在图上的对应操作","：干预 ",[128,20183,20185,20210],{"className":20184,"translate":218},[217],[128,20186,20188],{"className":20187},[222],[224,20189,20190],{"xmlns":226},[228,20191,20192,20208],{},[231,20193,20194,20196,20198,20200,20202,20204,20206],{},[1790,20195,2438],{},[1790,20197,2441],{},[1793,20199,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,20201,364],{},[1793,20203,2344],{},[1790,20205,2281],{},[1793,20207,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,20209,9799],{"encoding":240},[128,20211,20213,20240],{"className":20212,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20214,20216,20219,20222,20225,20228,20231,20234,20237],{"className":20215},[250],[128,20217],{"className":20218,"style":1870},[254],[128,20220,2438],{"className":20221},[259,1815],[128,20223,2441],{"className":20224},[259,1815],[128,20226,1848],{"className":20227},[1878],[128,20229,364],{"className":20230,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,20232],{"className":20233,"style":1945},[269],[128,20235,2344],{"className":20236},[1949],[128,20238],{"className":20239,"style":1945},[269],[128,20241,20243,20246,20249],{"className":20242},[250],[128,20244],{"className":20245,"style":1870},[254],[128,20247,2281],{"className":20248},[259,1815],[128,20250,1857],{"className":20251},[1894]," 对应从因果图 ",[128,20254,20256,20269],{"className":20255,"translate":218},[217],[128,20257,20259],{"className":20258},[222],[224,20260,20261],{"xmlns":226},[228,20262,20263,20267],{},[231,20264,20265],{},[1790,20266,3064],{},[238,20268,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,20270,20272],{"className":20271,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20273,20275,20278],{"className":20274},[250],[128,20276],{"className":20277,"style":283},[254],[128,20279,3064],{"className":20280},[259,1815]," 中删去 ",[128,20283,20285,20298],{"className":20284,"translate":218},[217],[128,20286,20288],{"className":20287},[222],[224,20289,20290],{"xmlns":226},[228,20291,20292,20296],{},[231,20293,20294],{},[1790,20295,364],{},[238,20297,364],{"encoding":240},[128,20299,20301],{"className":20300,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20302,20304,20307],{"className":20303},[250],[128,20305],{"className":20306,"style":283},[254],[128,20308,364],{"className":20309,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的所有入边（即切断 ",[128,20312,20314,20327],{"className":20313,"translate":218},[217],[128,20315,20317],{"className":20316},[222],[224,20318,20319],{"xmlns":226},[228,20320,20321,20325],{},[231,20322,20323],{},[1790,20324,364],{},[238,20326,364],{"encoding":240},[128,20328,20330],{"className":20329,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20331,20333,20336],{"className":20332},[250],[128,20334],{"className":20335,"style":283},[254],[128,20337,364],{"className":20338,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 与其父节点的连接），得到修改后的图 ",[128,20341,20343,20367],{"className":20342,"translate":218},[217],[128,20344,20346],{"className":20345},[222],[224,20347,20348],{"xmlns":226},[228,20349,20350,20364],{},[231,20351,20352],{},[2605,20353,20354,20356],{},[1790,20355,3064],{},[20357,20358,20359,20361],"mover",{"accent":246},[1790,20360,364],{},[1793,20362,20363],{"stretchy":246},"‾",[238,20365,20366],{"encoding":240},"G_{\\overline{X}}",[128,20368,20370],{"className":20369,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20371,20373,20377],{"className":20372},[250],[128,20374],{"className":20375,"style":20376},[254],"height:0.9884em;vertical-align:-0.305em;",[128,20378,20380,20383],{"className":20379},[259],[128,20381,3064],{"className":20382},[259,1815],[128,20384,20386],{"className":20385},[2660],[128,20387,20389,20448],{"className":20388},[274,321],[128,20390,20392,20445],{"className":20391},[278],[128,20393,20396],{"className":20394,"style":20395},[282],"height:0.3448em;",[128,20397,20399,20402],{"style":20398},"top:-2.695em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,20400],{"className":20401,"style":335},[290],[128,20403,20405],{"className":20404},[299,300,301,298],[128,20406,20408],{"className":20407},[259,298],[128,20409,20412],{"className":20410},[259,20411,298],"overline",[128,20413,20415],{"className":20414},[274],[128,20416,20418],{"className":20417},[278],[128,20419,20422,20434],{"className":20420,"style":20421},[282],"height:0.9283em;",[128,20423,20425,20428],{"style":20424},"top:-3em;",[128,20426],{"className":20427,"style":335},[290],[128,20429,20431],{"className":20430},[259,298],[128,20432,364],{"className":20433,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,20435,20437,20440],{"style":20436},"top:-3.8303em;",[128,20438],{"className":20439,"style":335},[290],[128,20441],{"className":20442,"style":20444},[20443,298],"overline-line","border-bottom-width:0.049em;",[128,20446,347],{"className":20447},[346],[128,20449,20451],{"className":20450},[278],[128,20452,20455],{"className":20453,"style":20454},[282],"height:0.305em;",[128,20456],{},"，同时保留 ",[128,20459,20461,20474],{"className":20460,"translate":218},[217],[128,20462,20464],{"className":20463},[222],[224,20465,20466],{"xmlns":226},[228,20467,20468,20472],{},[231,20469,20470],{},[1790,20471,364],{},[238,20473,364],{"encoding":240},[128,20475,20477],{"className":20476,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20478,20480,20483],{"className":20479},[250],[128,20481],{"className":20482,"style":283},[254],[128,20484,364],{"className":20485,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的所有出边不变。这一操作直观地表达了「外部干预使得 ",[128,20488,20490,20503],{"className":20489,"translate":218},[217],[128,20491,20493],{"className":20492},[222],[224,20494,20495],{"xmlns":226},[228,20496,20497,20501],{},[231,20498,20499],{},[1790,20500,364],{},[238,20502,364],{"encoding":240},[128,20504,20506],{"className":20505,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20507,20509,20512],{"className":20508},[250],[128,20510],{"className":20511,"style":283},[254],[128,20513,364],{"className":20514,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 不再由其自然原因决定，而是由外部力量强制设定」这一语义。",[64,20517,20518],{},[11,20519,20520,20523,20524,21227,21228,21260],{},[35,20521,20522],{},"定理 3.1（截断因子分解公式，Truncated Factorization）"," 对马尔可夫型 SCM，\n",[128,20525,20527,20673],{"className":20526,"translate":218},[217],[128,20528,20530],{"className":20529},[222],[224,20531,20532],{"xmlns":226},[228,20533,20534,20670],{},[231,20535,20536,20538,20540,20546,20548,20550,20552,20558,20560,20562,20564,20566,20568,20570,20572,20574],{},[1790,20537,1844],{},[1793,20539,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,20541,20542,20544],{},[1790,20543,14256],{},[3152,20545,3154],{},[1793,20547,1795],{"separator":246},[1793,20549,3159],{},[1793,20551,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,20553,20554,20556],{},[1790,20555,14256],{},[1790,20557,3168],{},[1793,20559,1916],{},[1790,20561,2438],{},[1790,20563,2441],{},[1793,20565,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,20567,2281],{},[1793,20569,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,20571,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,20573,2344],{},[231,20575,20576,20578],{},[1793,20577,3146],{"fence":246},[15423,20579,20583,20655],{"rowspacing":20580,"columnalign":20581,"columnspacing":20582},"0.36em","left left","1em",[15429,20584,20585,20632],{},[15432,20586,20587],{},[13555,20588,20589],{"scriptlevel":4187,"displaystyle":1847},[231,20590,20591,20608,20610,20612,20618,20620,20630],{},[2605,20592,20593,20595],{},[1793,20594,14280],{},[231,20596,20597,20603,20606],{},[2605,20598,20599,20601],{},[1790,20600,3071],{},[1790,20602,3409],{},[1793,20604,20605],{"mathvariant":2620},"≠",[1790,20607,364],{},[1790,20609,1844],{},[1793,20611,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,20613,20614,20616],{},[1790,20615,14256],{},[1790,20617,3409],{},[1793,20619,1916],{},[2605,20621,20622,20628],{},[231,20623,20624,20626],{},[1790,20625,11],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,20627,21],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,20629,3409],{},[1793,20631,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[15432,20633,20634],{},[13555,20635,20636],{"scriptlevel":4187,"displaystyle":1847},[231,20637,20638,20641,20643,20646,20648,20650,20652],{},[234,20639,20640],{},"若 ",[1790,20642,14256],{},[234,20644,20645],{}," 的取值与 ",[1790,20647,364],{},[1793,20649,2344],{},[1790,20651,2281],{},[234,20653,20654],{}," 相容",[15429,20656,20657,20663],{},[15432,20658,20659],{},[13555,20660,20661],{"scriptlevel":4187,"displaystyle":1847},[3152,20662,4187],{},[15432,20664,20665],{},[13555,20666,20667],{"scriptlevel":4187,"displaystyle":1847},[234,20668,20669],{},"否则",[238,20671,20672],{"encoding":240},"P(v_1,\\dots,v_n \\mid do(x)) = \\begin{cases} \\prod_{V_i \\neq X} P(v_i \\mid \\mathrm{pa}_i) & \\text{若 } v \\text{ 的取值与 } X=x \\text{ 相容} \\\\ 0 & \\text{否则}\\end{cases}",[128,20674,20676,20795,20825],{"className":20675,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,20677,20679,20682,20685,20688,20728,20731,20734,20737,20740,20743,20746,20786,20789,20792],{"className":20678},[250],[128,20680],{"className":20681,"style":1870},[254],[128,20683,1844],{"className":20684,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,20686,1848],{"className":20687},[1878],[128,20689,20691,20694],{"className":20690},[259],[128,20692,14256],{"className":20693,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,20695,20697],{"className":20696},[2660],[128,20698,20700,20720],{"className":20699},[274,321],[128,20701,20703,20717],{"className":20702},[278],[128,20704,20706],{"className":20705,"style":3223},[282],[128,20707,20708,20711],{"style":2673},[128,20709],{"className":20710,"style":291},[290],[128,20712,20714],{"className":20713},[299,300,301,298],[128,20715,3154],{"className":20716},[259,298],[128,20718,347],{"className":20719},[346],[128,20721,20723],{"className":20722},[278],[128,20724,20726],{"className":20725,"style":2692},[282],[128,20727],{},[128,20729,1795],{"className":20730},[1820],[128,20732],{"className":20733,"style":1824},[269],[128,20735,3159],{"className":20736},[3256],[128,20738],{"className":20739,"style":1824},[269],[128,20741,1795],{"className":20742},[1820],[128,20744],{"className":20745,"style":1824},[269],[128,20747,20749,20752],{"className":20748},[259],[128,20750,14256],{"className":20751,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,20753,20755],{"className":20754},[2660],[128,20756,20758,20778],{"className":20757},[274,321],[128,20759,20761,20775],{"className":20760},[278],[128,20762,20764],{"className":20763,"style":2670},[282],[128,20765,20766,20769],{"style":2673},[128,20767],{"className":20768,"style":291},[290],[128,20770,20772],{"className":20771},[299,300,301,298],[128,20773,3168],{"className":20774},[259,1815,298],[128,20776,347],{"className":20777},[346],[128,20779,20781],{"className":20780},[278],[128,20782,20784],{"className":20783,"style":2692},[282],[128,20785],{},[128,20787],{"className":20788,"style":1945},[269],[128,20790,1916],{"className":20791},[1949],[128,20793],{"className":20794,"style":1945},[269],[128,20796,20798,20801,20804,20807,20810,20813,20816,20819,20822],{"className":20797},[250],[128,20799],{"className":20800,"style":1870},[254],[128,20802,2438],{"className":20803},[259,1815],[128,20805,2441],{"className":20806},[259,1815],[128,20808,1848],{"className":20809},[1878],[128,20811,2281],{"className":20812},[259,1815],[128,20814,2501],{"className":20815},[1894],[128,20817],{"className":20818,"style":1945},[269],[128,20820,2344],{"className":20821},[1949],[128,20823],{"className":20824,"style":1945},[269],[128,20826,20828,20832],{"className":20827},[250],[128,20829],{"className":20830,"style":20831},[254],"height:3em;vertical-align:-1.25em;",[128,20833,20835,20844,21223],{"className":20834},[3256],[128,20836,20840],{"className":20837,"style":20839},[1878,20838],"delimcenter","top:0em;",[128,20841,3146],{"className":20842},[16806,20843],"size4",[128,20845,20847],{"className":20846},[259],[128,20848,20850,21124,21127],{"className":20849},[15423],[128,20851,20853],{"className":20852},[16172],[128,20854,20856,21115],{"className":20855},[274,321],[128,20857,20859,21112],{"className":20858},[278],[128,20860,20863,21100],{"className":20861,"style":20862},[282],"height:1.6919em;",[128,20864,20866,20870],{"style":20865},"top:-3.6919em;",[128,20867],{"className":20868,"style":20869},[290],"height:3.008em;",[128,20871,20873,20996,20999,21002,21005,21045,21048,21051,21054,21097],{"className":20872},[259],[128,20874,20876,20879],{"className":20875},[14490],[128,20877,14280],{"className":20878,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,20880,20882],{"className":20881},[2660],[128,20883,20885,20987],{"className":20884},[274,321],[128,20886,20888,20984],{"className":20887},[278],[128,20889,20892],{"className":20890,"style":20891},[282],"height:0.1864em;",[128,20893,20894,20897],{"style":14512},[128,20895],{"className":20896,"style":291},[290],[128,20898,20900],{"className":20899},[299,300,301,298],[128,20901,20903,20945,20981],{"className":20902},[259,298],[128,20904,20906,20909],{"className":20905},[259,298],[128,20907,3071],{"className":20908,"style":1828},[259,1815,298],[128,20910,20912],{"className":20911},[2660],[128,20913,20915,20937],{"className":20914},[274,321],[128,20916,20918,20934],{"className":20917},[278],[128,20919,20922],{"className":20920,"style":20921},[282],"height:0.3281em;",[128,20923,20925,20928],{"style":20924},"top:-2.357em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[128,20926],{"className":20927,"style":20135},[290],[128,20929,20931],{"className":20930},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,20932,3409],{"className":20933},[259,1815,298],[128,20935,347],{"className":20936},[346],[128,20938,20940],{"className":20939},[278],[128,20941,20943],{"className":20942,"style":20152},[282],[128,20944],{},[128,20946,20948,20975,20978],{"className":20947},[1949,298],[128,20949,20951],{"className":20950},[1949,298],[128,20952,20954],{"className":20953},[259,6189,298],[128,20955,20957],{"className":20956},[6193,298],[128,20958,20960,20963,20972],{"className":20959},[6197,298],[128,20961],{"className":20962,"style":6176},[254],[128,20964,20966],{"className":20965},[6204],[128,20967,20969],{"className":20968},[259,298],[128,20970,6211],{"className":20971},[1949,298],[128,20973],{"className":20974},[6215],[128,20976],{"className":20977},[269,6219,298],[128,20979,2344],{"className":20980},[1949,298],[128,20982,364],{"className":20983,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,20985,347],{"className":20986},[346],[128,20988,20990],{"className":20989},[278],[128,20991,20994],{"className":20992,"style":20993},[282],"height:0.4358em;",[128,20995],{},[128,20997],{"className":20998,"style":1824},[269],[128,21000,1844],{"className":21001,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,21003,1848],{"className":21004},[1878],[128,21006,21008,21011],{"className":21007},[259],[128,21009,14256],{"className":21010,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,21012,21014],{"className":21013},[2660],[128,21015,21017,21037],{"className":21016},[274,321],[128,21018,21020,21034],{"className":21019},[278],[128,21021,21023],{"className":21022,"style":3460},[282],[128,21024,21025,21028],{"style":2673},[128,21026],{"className":21027,"style":291},[290],[128,21029,21031],{"className":21030},[299,300,301,298],[128,21032,3409],{"className":21033},[259,1815,298],[128,21035,347],{"className":21036},[346],[128,21038,21040],{"className":21039},[278],[128,21041,21043],{"className":21042,"style":2692},[282],[128,21044],{},[128,21046],{"className":21047,"style":1945},[269],[128,21049,1916],{"className":21050},[1949],[128,21052],{"className":21053,"style":1945},[269],[128,21055,21057,21063],{"className":21056},[259],[128,21058,21060],{"className":21059},[259],[128,21061,14628],{"className":21062},[259,12100],[128,21064,21066],{"className":21065},[2660],[128,21067,21069,21089],{"className":21068},[274,321],[128,21070,21072,21086],{"className":21071},[278],[128,21073,21075],{"className":21074,"style":14641},[282],[128,21076,21077,21080],{"style":14644},[128,21078],{"className":21079,"style":291},[290],[128,21081,21083],{"className":21082},[299,300,301,298],[128,21084,3409],{"className":21085},[259,1815,298],[128,21087,347],{"className":21088},[346],[128,21090,21092],{"className":21091},[278],[128,21093,21095],{"className":21094,"style":14663},[282],[128,21096],{},[128,21098,1857],{"className":21099},[1894],[128,21101,21103,21106],{"style":21102},"top:-2.2481em;",[128,21104],{"className":21105,"style":20869},[290],[128,21107,21109],{"className":21108},[259],[128,21110,4187],{"className":21111},[259],[128,21113,347],{"className":21114},[346],[128,21116,21118],{"className":21117},[278],[128,21119,21122],{"className":21120,"style":21121},[282],"height:1.1919em;",[128,21123],{},[128,21125],{"className":21126,"style":16935},[16934],[128,21128,21130],{"className":21129},[16172],[128,21131,21133,21215],{"className":21132},[274,321],[128,21134,21136,21212],{"className":21135},[278],[128,21137,21139,21198],{"className":21138,"style":20862},[282],[128,21140,21141,21144],{"style":20865},[128,21142],{"className":21143,"style":20869},[290],[128,21145,21147,21157,21160,21173,21176,21179,21182,21185,21188],{"className":21146},[259],[128,21148,21150,21154],{"className":21149},[259,260],[128,21151,21153],{"className":21152},[259,9479],"若",[128,21155,5652],{"className":21156},[259],[128,21158,14256],{"className":21159,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,21161,21163,21166,21170],{"className":21162},[259,260],[128,21164,5652],{"className":21165},[259],[128,21167,21169],{"className":21168},[259,9479],"的取值与",[128,21171,5652],{"className":21172},[259],[128,21174,364],{"className":21175,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,21177],{"className":21178,"style":1945},[269],[128,21180,2344],{"className":21181},[1949],[128,21183],{"className":21184,"style":1945},[269],[128,21186,2281],{"className":21187},[259,1815],[128,21189,21191,21194],{"className":21190},[259,260],[128,21192,5652],{"className":21193},[259],[128,21195,21197],{"className":21196},[259,9479],"相容",[128,21199,21200,21203],{"style":21102},[128,21201],{"className":21202,"style":20869},[290],[128,21204,21206],{"className":21205},[259],[128,21207,21209],{"className":21208},[259,260],[128,21210,20669],{"className":21211},[259,9479],[128,21213,347],{"className":21214},[346],[128,21216,21218],{"className":21217},[278],[128,21219,21221],{"className":21220,"style":21121},[282],[128,21222],{},[128,21224],{"className":21225},[1894,21226],"nulldelimiter","\n即干预分布等于观测分布的马尔可夫分解式中",[35,21229,21230,21231,21259],{},"删去 ",[128,21232,21234,21247],{"className":21233,"translate":218},[217],[128,21235,21237],{"className":21236},[222],[224,21238,21239],{"xmlns":226},[228,21240,21241,21245],{},[231,21242,21243],{},[1790,21244,364],{},[238,21246,364],{"encoding":240},[128,21248,21250],{"className":21249,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21251,21253,21256],{"className":21252},[250],[128,21254],{"className":21255,"style":283},[254],[128,21257,364],{"className":21258,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 对应因子后","的乘积。这一公式是连接观测数据（第一层）与干预效果（第二层）的桥梁，也是后续「后门准则」「前门准则」等可识别性理论的直接推论。",[64,21262,21263,21326,22424],{},[11,21264,21265,21268,21269,21325],{},[35,21266,21267],{},"例 3.2（观察与干预的数值区分）"," 沿用洒水器例子。设已知 ",[128,21270,21272,21292],{"className":21271,"translate":218},[217],[128,21273,21275],{"className":21274},[222],[224,21276,21277],{"xmlns":226},[228,21278,21279,21289],{},[231,21280,21281,21283,21285,21287],{},[1790,21282,5505],{},[1790,21284,11],{},[1793,21286,2344],{},[3152,21288,3154],{},[238,21290,21291],{"encoding":240},"Sp=1",[128,21293,21295,21316],{"className":21294,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21296,21298,21301,21304,21307,21310,21313],{"className":21297},[250],[128,21299],{"className":21300,"style":1811},[254],[128,21302,5505],{"className":21303,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21305,11],{"className":21306},[259,1815],[128,21308],{"className":21309,"style":1945},[269],[128,21311,2344],{"className":21312},[1949],[128,21314],{"className":21315,"style":1945},[269],[128,21317,21319,21322],{"className":21318},[250],[128,21320],{"className":21321,"style":4875},[254],[128,21323,3154],{"className":21324},[259],"（洒水器开着）。",[2249,21327,21328,21721],{},[2252,21329,21330,1148,21333,14675,21448,21504,21505,21533,21534,21589,21590,21641,21642,21720],{},[35,21331,21332],{},"观察情形",[128,21334,21336,21370],{"className":21335,"translate":218},[217],[128,21337,21339],{"className":21338},[222],[224,21340,21341],{"xmlns":226},[228,21342,21343,21367],{},[231,21344,21345,21347,21349,21351,21353,21355,21357,21359,21361,21363,21365],{},[1790,21346,1844],{},[1793,21348,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,21350,5510],{},[1793,21352,2344],{},[3152,21354,3154],{},[1793,21356,1916],{},[1790,21358,5505],{},[1790,21360,11],{},[1793,21362,2344],{},[3152,21364,3154],{},[1793,21366,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,21368,21369],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1 \\mid Sp=1)",[128,21371,21373,21397,21415,21436],{"className":21372,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21374,21376,21379,21382,21385,21388,21391,21394],{"className":21375},[250],[128,21377],{"className":21378,"style":1870},[254],[128,21380,1844],{"className":21381,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,21383,1848],{"className":21384},[1878],[128,21386,5510],{"className":21387,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,21389],{"className":21390,"style":1945},[269],[128,21392,2344],{"className":21393},[1949],[128,21395],{"className":21396,"style":1945},[269],[128,21398,21400,21403,21406,21409,21412],{"className":21399},[250],[128,21401],{"className":21402,"style":1870},[254],[128,21404,3154],{"className":21405},[259],[128,21407],{"className":21408,"style":1945},[269],[128,21410,1916],{"className":21411},[1949],[128,21413],{"className":21414,"style":1945},[269],[128,21416,21418,21421,21424,21427,21430,21433],{"className":21417},[250],[128,21419],{"className":21420,"style":1811},[254],[128,21422,5505],{"className":21423,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21425,11],{"className":21426},[259,1815],[128,21428],{"className":21429,"style":1945},[269],[128,21431,2344],{"className":21432},[1949],[128,21434],{"className":21435,"style":1945},[269],[128,21437,21439,21442,21445],{"className":21438},[250],[128,21440],{"className":21441,"style":1870},[254],[128,21443,3154],{"className":21444},[259],[128,21446,1857],{"className":21447},[1894],[128,21449,21451,21471],{"className":21450,"translate":218},[217],[128,21452,21454],{"className":21453},[222],[224,21455,21456],{"xmlns":226},[228,21457,21458,21468],{},[231,21459,21460,21462,21464,21466],{},[1790,21461,5505],{},[1793,21463,3573],{},[1790,21465,5505],{},[1790,21467,11],{},[238,21469,21470],{"encoding":240},"S \\to Sp",[128,21472,21474,21492],{"className":21473,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21475,21477,21480,21483,21486,21489],{"className":21476},[250],[128,21478],{"className":21479,"style":283},[254],[128,21481,5505],{"className":21482,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21484],{"className":21485,"style":1945},[269],[128,21487,3573],{"className":21488},[1949],[128,21490],{"className":21491,"style":1945},[269],[128,21493,21495,21498,21501],{"className":21494},[250],[128,21496],{"className":21497,"style":1811},[254],[128,21499,5505],{"className":21500,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21502,11],{"className":21503},[259,1815],"，观察到洒水器开启会更新我们对季节 ",[128,21506,21508,21521],{"className":21507,"translate":218},[217],[128,21509,21511],{"className":21510},[222],[224,21512,21513],{"xmlns":226},[228,21514,21515,21519],{},[231,21516,21517],{},[1790,21518,5505],{},[238,21520,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,21522,21524],{"className":21523,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21525,21527,21530],{"className":21526},[250],[128,21528],{"className":21529,"style":283},[254],[128,21531,5505],{"className":21532,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 的信念（贝叶斯反推），例如若干燥季节更常开洒水器，则观察到 ",[128,21535,21537,21556],{"className":21536,"translate":218},[217],[128,21538,21540],{"className":21539},[222],[224,21541,21542],{"xmlns":226},[228,21543,21544,21554],{},[231,21545,21546,21548,21550,21552],{},[1790,21547,5505],{},[1790,21549,11],{},[1793,21551,2344],{},[3152,21553,3154],{},[238,21555,21291],{"encoding":240},[128,21557,21559,21580],{"className":21558,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21560,21562,21565,21568,21571,21574,21577],{"className":21561},[250],[128,21563],{"className":21564,"style":1811},[254],[128,21566,5505],{"className":21567,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21569,11],{"className":21570},[259,1815],[128,21572],{"className":21573,"style":1945},[269],[128,21575,2344],{"className":21576},[1949],[128,21578],{"className":21579,"style":1945},[269],[128,21581,21583,21586],{"className":21582},[250],[128,21584],{"className":21585,"style":4875},[254],[128,21587,3154],{"className":21588},[259]," 会提高「当前是干燥季节」的后验概率，进而压低 ",[128,21591,21593,21611],{"className":21592,"translate":218},[217],[128,21594,21596],{"className":21595},[222],[224,21597,21598],{"xmlns":226},[228,21599,21600,21608],{},[231,21601,21602,21604,21606],{},[1790,21603,5510],{},[1793,21605,2344],{},[3152,21607,3154],{},[238,21609,21610],{"encoding":240},"R=1",[128,21612,21614,21632],{"className":21613,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21615,21617,21620,21623,21626,21629],{"className":21616},[250],[128,21618],{"className":21619,"style":283},[254],[128,21621,5510],{"className":21622,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,21624],{"className":21625,"style":1945},[269],[128,21627,2344],{"className":21628},[1949],[128,21630],{"className":21631,"style":1945},[269],[128,21633,21635,21638],{"className":21634},[250],[128,21636],{"className":21637,"style":4875},[254],[128,21639,3154],{"className":21640},[259]," 的概率。此计算通过叉结构 ",[128,21643,21645,21669],{"className":21644,"translate":218},[217],[128,21646,21648],{"className":21647},[222],[224,21649,21650],{"xmlns":226},[228,21651,21652,21666],{},[231,21653,21654,21656,21658,21660,21662,21664],{},[1790,21655,5510],{},[1793,21657,6602],{},[1790,21659,5505],{},[1793,21661,3573],{},[1790,21663,5505],{},[1790,21665,11],{},[238,21667,21668],{"encoding":240},"R \\leftarrow S \\to Sp",[128,21670,21672,21690,21708],{"className":21671,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21673,21675,21678,21681,21684,21687],{"className":21674},[250],[128,21676],{"className":21677,"style":283},[254],[128,21679,5510],{"className":21680,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,21682],{"className":21683,"style":1945},[269],[128,21685,6602],{"className":21686},[1949],[128,21688],{"className":21689,"style":1945},[269],[128,21691,21693,21696,21699,21702,21705],{"className":21692},[250],[128,21694],{"className":21695,"style":283},[254],[128,21697,5505],{"className":21698,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21700],{"className":21701,"style":1945},[269],[128,21703,3573],{"className":21704},[1949],[128,21706],{"className":21707,"style":1945},[269],[128,21709,21711,21714,21717],{"className":21710},[250],[128,21712],{"className":21713,"style":1811},[254],[128,21715,5505],{"className":21716,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21718,11],{"className":21719},[259,1815]," 这条未被阻断的路径进行。",[2252,21722,21723,1148,21726,21858,21859,21914,21915,21943,21944,22021,22022,22077,22078,22423],{},[35,21724,21725],{},"干预情形",[128,21727,21729,21771],{"className":21728,"translate":218},[217],[128,21730,21732],{"className":21731},[222],[224,21733,21734],{"xmlns":226},[228,21735,21736,21768],{},[231,21737,21738,21740,21742,21744,21746,21748,21750,21752,21754,21756,21758,21760,21762,21764,21766],{},[1790,21739,1844],{},[1793,21741,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,21743,5510],{},[1793,21745,2344],{},[3152,21747,3154],{},[1793,21749,1916],{},[1790,21751,2438],{},[1790,21753,2441],{},[1793,21755,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,21757,5505],{},[1790,21759,11],{},[1793,21761,2344],{},[3152,21763,3154],{},[1793,21765,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,21767,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,21769,21770],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1 \\mid do(Sp=1))",[128,21772,21774,21798,21816,21846],{"className":21773,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21775,21777,21780,21783,21786,21789,21792,21795],{"className":21776},[250],[128,21778],{"className":21779,"style":1870},[254],[128,21781,1844],{"className":21782,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,21784,1848],{"className":21785},[1878],[128,21787,5510],{"className":21788,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,21790],{"className":21791,"style":1945},[269],[128,21793,2344],{"className":21794},[1949],[128,21796],{"className":21797,"style":1945},[269],[128,21799,21801,21804,21807,21810,21813],{"className":21800},[250],[128,21802],{"className":21803,"style":1870},[254],[128,21805,3154],{"className":21806},[259],[128,21808],{"className":21809,"style":1945},[269],[128,21811,1916],{"className":21812},[1949],[128,21814],{"className":21815,"style":1945},[269],[128,21817,21819,21822,21825,21828,21831,21834,21837,21840,21843],{"className":21818},[250],[128,21820],{"className":21821,"style":1870},[254],[128,21823,2438],{"className":21824},[259,1815],[128,21826,2441],{"className":21827},[259,1815],[128,21829,1848],{"className":21830},[1878],[128,21832,5505],{"className":21833,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21835,11],{"className":21836},[259,1815],[128,21838],{"className":21839,"style":1945},[269],[128,21841,2344],{"className":21842},[1949],[128,21844],{"className":21845,"style":1945},[269],[128,21847,21849,21852,21855],{"className":21848},[250],[128,21850],{"className":21851,"style":1870},[254],[128,21853,3154],{"className":21854},[259],[128,21856,2501],{"className":21857},[1894],"：依据定义 3.2，干预会切断 ",[128,21860,21862,21881],{"className":21861,"translate":218},[217],[128,21863,21865],{"className":21864},[222],[224,21866,21867],{"xmlns":226},[228,21868,21869,21879],{},[231,21870,21871,21873,21875,21877],{},[1790,21872,5505],{},[1793,21874,3573],{},[1790,21876,5505],{},[1790,21878,11],{},[238,21880,21470],{"encoding":240},[128,21882,21884,21902],{"className":21883,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21885,21887,21890,21893,21896,21899],{"className":21886},[250],[128,21888],{"className":21889,"style":283},[254],[128,21891,5505],{"className":21892,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21894],{"className":21895,"style":1945},[269],[128,21897,3573],{"className":21898},[1949],[128,21900],{"className":21901,"style":1945},[269],[128,21903,21905,21908,21911],{"className":21904},[250],[128,21906],{"className":21907,"style":1811},[254],[128,21909,5505],{"className":21910,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,21912,11],{"className":21913},[259,1815]," 这条边，于是 ",[128,21916,21918,21931],{"className":21917,"translate":218},[217],[128,21919,21921],{"className":21920},[222],[224,21922,21923],{"xmlns":226},[228,21924,21925,21929],{},[231,21926,21927],{},[1790,21928,5505],{},[238,21930,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,21932,21934],{"className":21933,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21935,21937,21940],{"className":21936},[250],[128,21938],{"className":21939,"style":283},[254],[128,21941,5505],{"className":21942,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 的分布完全不受「我们把洒水器打开」这一操作的影响；而 ",[128,21945,21947,21970],{"className":21946,"translate":218},[217],[128,21948,21950],{"className":21949},[222],[224,21951,21952],{"xmlns":226},[228,21953,21954,21968],{},[231,21955,21956,21958,21960,21962,21964,21966],{},[1790,21957,5510],{},[1793,21959,6602],{},[1790,21961,5505],{},[1793,21963,3573],{},[1790,21965,5505],{},[1790,21967,11],{},[238,21969,21668],{"encoding":240},[128,21971,21973,21991,22009],{"className":21972,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,21974,21976,21979,21982,21985,21988],{"className":21975},[250],[128,21977],{"className":21978,"style":283},[254],[128,21980,5510],{"className":21981,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,21983],{"className":21984,"style":1945},[269],[128,21986,6602],{"className":21987},[1949],[128,21989],{"className":21990,"style":1945},[269],[128,21992,21994,21997,22000,22003,22006],{"className":21993},[250],[128,21995],{"className":21996,"style":283},[254],[128,21998,5505],{"className":21999,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22001],{"className":22002,"style":1945},[269],[128,22004,3573],{"className":22005},[1949],[128,22007],{"className":22008,"style":1945},[269],[128,22010,22012,22015,22018],{"className":22011},[250],[128,22013],{"className":22014,"style":1811},[254],[128,22016,5505],{"className":22017,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22019,11],{"className":22020},[259,1815]," 这条路径由于 ",[128,22023,22025,22044],{"className":22024,"translate":218},[217],[128,22026,22028],{"className":22027},[222],[224,22029,22030],{"xmlns":226},[228,22031,22032,22042],{},[231,22033,22034,22036,22038,22040],{},[1790,22035,5505],{},[1793,22037,3573],{},[1790,22039,5505],{},[1790,22041,11],{},[238,22043,21470],{"encoding":240},[128,22045,22047,22065],{"className":22046,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22048,22050,22053,22056,22059,22062],{"className":22049},[250],[128,22051],{"className":22052,"style":283},[254],[128,22054,5505],{"className":22055,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22057],{"className":22058,"style":1945},[269],[128,22060,3573],{"className":22061},[1949],[128,22063],{"className":22064,"style":1945},[269],[128,22066,22068,22071,22074],{"className":22067},[250],[128,22069],{"className":22070,"style":1811},[254],[128,22072,5505],{"className":22073,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22075,11],{"className":22076},[259,1815]," 边已被切断，不再传递任何信息。因此\n",[128,22079,22081,22171],{"className":22080,"translate":218},[217],[128,22082,22084],{"className":22083},[222],[224,22085,22086],{"xmlns":226},[228,22087,22088,22168],{},[231,22089,22090,22092,22094,22096,22098,22100,22102,22104,22106,22108,22110,22112,22114,22116,22118,22120,22122,22124,22126,22128,22130,22132,22134,22136,22144,22146,22148,22150,22152,22154,22156,22158,22160,22162,22164,22166],{},[1790,22091,1844],{},[1793,22093,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22095,5510],{},[1793,22097,2344],{},[3152,22099,3154],{},[1793,22101,1916],{},[1790,22103,2438],{},[1790,22105,2441],{},[1793,22107,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22109,5505],{},[1790,22111,11],{},[1793,22113,2344],{},[3152,22115,3154],{},[1793,22117,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22119,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22121,2344],{},[1790,22123,1844],{},[1793,22125,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22127,5510],{},[1793,22129,2344],{},[3152,22131,3154],{},[1793,22133,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22135,2344],{},[2605,22137,22138,22141],{},[1793,22139,22140],{},"∑",[1790,22142,22143],{},"s",[1790,22145,1844],{},[1793,22147,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22149,5510],{},[1793,22151,2344],{},[3152,22153,3154],{},[1793,22155,1916],{},[1790,22157,22143],{},[1793,22159,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22161,1844],{},[1793,22163,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22165,22143],{},[1793,22167,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,22169,22170],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1 \\mid do(Sp=1)) = P(R=1) = \\sum_s P(R=1\\mid s)P(s)",[128,22172,22174,22198,22216,22246,22267,22291,22312,22381,22399],{"className":22173,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22175,22177,22180,22183,22186,22189,22192,22195],{"className":22176},[250],[128,22178],{"className":22179,"style":1870},[254],[128,22181,1844],{"className":22182,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22184,1848],{"className":22185},[1878],[128,22187,5510],{"className":22188,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,22190],{"className":22191,"style":1945},[269],[128,22193,2344],{"className":22194},[1949],[128,22196],{"className":22197,"style":1945},[269],[128,22199,22201,22204,22207,22210,22213],{"className":22200},[250],[128,22202],{"className":22203,"style":1870},[254],[128,22205,3154],{"className":22206},[259],[128,22208],{"className":22209,"style":1945},[269],[128,22211,1916],{"className":22212},[1949],[128,22214],{"className":22215,"style":1945},[269],[128,22217,22219,22222,22225,22228,22231,22234,22237,22240,22243],{"className":22218},[250],[128,22220],{"className":22221,"style":1870},[254],[128,22223,2438],{"className":22224},[259,1815],[128,22226,2441],{"className":22227},[259,1815],[128,22229,1848],{"className":22230},[1878],[128,22232,5505],{"className":22233,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22235,11],{"className":22236},[259,1815],[128,22238],{"className":22239,"style":1945},[269],[128,22241,2344],{"className":22242},[1949],[128,22244],{"className":22245,"style":1945},[269],[128,22247,22249,22252,22255,22258,22261,22264],{"className":22248},[250],[128,22250],{"className":22251,"style":1870},[254],[128,22253,3154],{"className":22254},[259],[128,22256,2501],{"className":22257},[1894],[128,22259],{"className":22260,"style":1945},[269],[128,22262,2344],{"className":22263},[1949],[128,22265],{"className":22266,"style":1945},[269],[128,22268,22270,22273,22276,22279,22282,22285,22288],{"className":22269},[250],[128,22271],{"className":22272,"style":1870},[254],[128,22274,1844],{"className":22275,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22277,1848],{"className":22278},[1878],[128,22280,5510],{"className":22281,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,22283],{"className":22284,"style":1945},[269],[128,22286,2344],{"className":22287},[1949],[128,22289],{"className":22290,"style":1945},[269],[128,22292,22294,22297,22300,22303,22306,22309],{"className":22293},[250],[128,22295],{"className":22296,"style":1870},[254],[128,22298,3154],{"className":22299},[259],[128,22301,1857],{"className":22302},[1894],[128,22304],{"className":22305,"style":1945},[269],[128,22307,2344],{"className":22308},[1949],[128,22310],{"className":22311,"style":1945},[269],[128,22313,22315,22319,22360,22363,22366,22369,22372,22375,22378],{"className":22314},[250],[128,22316],{"className":22317,"style":22318},[254],"height:1.0497em;vertical-align:-0.2997em;",[128,22320,22322,22325],{"className":22321},[14490],[128,22323,22140],{"className":22324,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,22326,22328],{"className":22327},[2660],[128,22329,22331,22352],{"className":22330},[274,321],[128,22332,22334,22349],{"className":22333},[278],[128,22335,22338],{"className":22336,"style":22337},[282],"height:0.0017em;",[128,22339,22340,22343],{"style":14512},[128,22341],{"className":22342,"style":291},[290],[128,22344,22346],{"className":22345},[299,300,301,298],[128,22347,22143],{"className":22348},[259,1815,298],[128,22350,347],{"className":22351},[346],[128,22353,22355],{"className":22354},[278],[128,22356,22358],{"className":22357,"style":14552},[282],[128,22359],{},[128,22361],{"className":22362,"style":1824},[269],[128,22364,1844],{"className":22365,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22367,1848],{"className":22368},[1878],[128,22370,5510],{"className":22371,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,22373],{"className":22374,"style":1945},[269],[128,22376,2344],{"className":22377},[1949],[128,22379],{"className":22380,"style":1945},[269],[128,22382,22384,22387,22390,22393,22396],{"className":22383},[250],[128,22385],{"className":22386,"style":1870},[254],[128,22388,3154],{"className":22389},[259],[128,22391],{"className":22392,"style":1945},[269],[128,22394,1916],{"className":22395},[1949],[128,22397],{"className":22398,"style":1945},[269],[128,22400,22402,22405,22408,22411,22414,22417,22420],{"className":22401},[250],[128,22403],{"className":22404,"style":1870},[254],[128,22406,22143],{"className":22407},[259,1815],[128,22409,1857],{"className":22410},[1894],[128,22412,1844],{"className":22413,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22415,1848],{"className":22416},[1878],[128,22418,22143],{"className":22419},[259,1815],[128,22421,1857],{"className":22422},[1894],"\n与是否干预洒水器完全无关。",[11,22425,22426,22429,22430,22458,22459,22487,22488,22792,22793,22975,22976,23237,23238,23477,23478,12396,23481,23534],{},[35,22427,22428],{},"数值验证","：把 2.3 节给出的具体参数代入，可以直接把这一差别算出来。由于 ",[128,22431,22433,22446],{"className":22432,"translate":218},[217],[128,22434,22436],{"className":22435},[222],[224,22437,22438],{"xmlns":226},[228,22439,22440,22444],{},[231,22441,22442],{},[1790,22443,5505],{},[238,22445,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,22447,22449],{"className":22448,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22450,22452,22455],{"className":22451},[250],[128,22453],{"className":22454,"style":283},[254],[128,22456,5505],{"className":22457,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 是唯一影响 ",[128,22460,22462,22475],{"className":22461,"translate":218},[217],[128,22463,22465],{"className":22464},[222],[224,22466,22467],{"xmlns":226},[228,22468,22469,22473],{},[231,22470,22471],{},[1790,22472,5510],{},[238,22474,5510],{"encoding":240},[128,22476,22478],{"className":22477,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22479,22481,22484],{"className":22480},[250],[128,22482],{"className":22483,"style":283},[254],[128,22485,5510],{"className":22486,"style":5569},[259,1815]," 的变量，\n",[128,22489,22491,22569],{"className":22490,"translate":218},[217],[128,22492,22494],{"className":22493},[222],[224,22495,22496],{"xmlns":226},[228,22497,22498,22566],{},[231,22499,22500,22502,22504,22506,22508,22510,22512,22514,22516,22518,22520,22522,22524,22526,22528,22530,22532,22534,22536,22538,22540,22542,22544,22546,22548,22550,22552,22554,22557,22559,22561,22563],{},[1790,22501,1844],{},[1793,22503,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22505,5510],{},[1793,22507,2344],{},[3152,22509,3154],{},[1793,22511,1916],{},[1790,22513,2438],{},[1790,22515,2441],{},[1793,22517,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22519,5505],{},[1790,22521,11],{},[1793,22523,2344],{},[3152,22525,3154],{},[1793,22527,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22529,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22531,2344],{},[1790,22533,1844],{},[1793,22535,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22537,5510],{},[1793,22539,2344],{},[3152,22541,3154],{},[1793,22543,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22545,2344],{},[3152,22547,15508],{},[1793,22549,3331],{},[3152,22551,15647],{},[1793,22553,4620],{},[3152,22555,22556],{},"0.7",[1793,22558,3331],{},[3152,22560,15694],{},[1793,22562,2344],{},[3152,22564,22565],{},"0.31",[238,22567,22568],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1\\mid do(Sp=1)) = P(R=1) = 0.3 \\times 0.8 + 0.7 \\times 0.1 = 0.31",[128,22570,22572,22596,22614,22644,22665,22689,22710,22729,22747,22765,22783],{"className":22571,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22573,22575,22578,22581,22584,22587,22590,22593],{"className":22574},[250],[128,22576],{"className":22577,"style":1870},[254],[128,22579,1844],{"className":22580,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22582,1848],{"className":22583},[1878],[128,22585,5510],{"className":22586,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,22588],{"className":22589,"style":1945},[269],[128,22591,2344],{"className":22592},[1949],[128,22594],{"className":22595,"style":1945},[269],[128,22597,22599,22602,22605,22608,22611],{"className":22598},[250],[128,22600],{"className":22601,"style":1870},[254],[128,22603,3154],{"className":22604},[259],[128,22606],{"className":22607,"style":1945},[269],[128,22609,1916],{"className":22610},[1949],[128,22612],{"className":22613,"style":1945},[269],[128,22615,22617,22620,22623,22626,22629,22632,22635,22638,22641],{"className":22616},[250],[128,22618],{"className":22619,"style":1870},[254],[128,22621,2438],{"className":22622},[259,1815],[128,22624,2441],{"className":22625},[259,1815],[128,22627,1848],{"className":22628},[1878],[128,22630,5505],{"className":22631,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22633,11],{"className":22634},[259,1815],[128,22636],{"className":22637,"style":1945},[269],[128,22639,2344],{"className":22640},[1949],[128,22642],{"className":22643,"style":1945},[269],[128,22645,22647,22650,22653,22656,22659,22662],{"className":22646},[250],[128,22648],{"className":22649,"style":1870},[254],[128,22651,3154],{"className":22652},[259],[128,22654,2501],{"className":22655},[1894],[128,22657],{"className":22658,"style":1945},[269],[128,22660,2344],{"className":22661},[1949],[128,22663],{"className":22664,"style":1945},[269],[128,22666,22668,22671,22674,22677,22680,22683,22686],{"className":22667},[250],[128,22669],{"className":22670,"style":1870},[254],[128,22672,1844],{"className":22673,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22675,1848],{"className":22676},[1878],[128,22678,5510],{"className":22679,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,22681],{"className":22682,"style":1945},[269],[128,22684,2344],{"className":22685},[1949],[128,22687],{"className":22688,"style":1945},[269],[128,22690,22692,22695,22698,22701,22704,22707],{"className":22691},[250],[128,22693],{"className":22694,"style":1870},[254],[128,22696,3154],{"className":22697},[259],[128,22699,1857],{"className":22700},[1894],[128,22702],{"className":22703,"style":1945},[269],[128,22705,2344],{"className":22706},[1949],[128,22708],{"className":22709,"style":1945},[269],[128,22711,22713,22717,22720,22723,22726],{"className":22712},[250],[128,22714],{"className":22715,"style":22716},[254],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[128,22718,15508],{"className":22719},[259],[128,22721],{"className":22722,"style":1828},[269],[128,22724,3331],{"className":22725},[3375],[128,22727],{"className":22728,"style":1828},[269],[128,22730,22732,22735,22738,22741,22744],{"className":22731},[250],[128,22733],{"className":22734,"style":22716},[254],[128,22736,15647],{"className":22737},[259],[128,22739],{"className":22740,"style":1828},[269],[128,22742,4620],{"className":22743},[3375],[128,22745],{"className":22746,"style":1828},[269],[128,22748,22750,22753,22756,22759,22762],{"className":22749},[250],[128,22751],{"className":22752,"style":22716},[254],[128,22754,22556],{"className":22755},[259],[128,22757],{"className":22758,"style":1828},[269],[128,22760,3331],{"className":22761},[3375],[128,22763],{"className":22764,"style":1828},[269],[128,22766,22768,22771,22774,22777,22780],{"className":22767},[250],[128,22769],{"className":22770,"style":4875},[254],[128,22772,15694],{"className":22773},[259],[128,22775],{"className":22776,"style":1945},[269],[128,22778,2344],{"className":22779},[1949],[128,22781],{"className":22782,"style":1945},[269],[128,22784,22786,22789],{"className":22785},[250],[128,22787],{"className":22788,"style":4875},[254],[128,22790,22565],{"className":22791},[259],"\n而由 ",[128,22794,22796,22843],{"className":22795,"translate":218},[217],[128,22797,22799],{"className":22798},[222],[224,22800,22801],{"xmlns":226},[228,22802,22803,22840],{},[231,22804,22805,22807,22809,22811,22813,22815,22817,22819,22821,22823,22825,22827,22829,22831,22833,22835,22837],{},[1790,22806,1844],{},[1793,22808,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22810,5505],{},[1790,22812,11],{},[1793,22814,2344],{},[3152,22816,3154],{},[1793,22818,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,22820,2344],{},[3152,22822,15508],{},[1793,22824,3331],{},[3152,22826,15694],{},[1793,22828,4620],{},[3152,22830,22556],{},[1793,22832,3331],{},[3152,22834,15895],{},[1793,22836,2344],{},[3152,22838,22839],{},"0.45",[238,22841,22842],{"encoding":240},"P(Sp=1) = 0.3\\times 0.1 + 0.7\\times 0.6 = 0.45",[128,22844,22846,22873,22894,22912,22930,22948,22966],{"className":22845,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,22847,22849,22852,22855,22858,22861,22864,22867,22870],{"className":22848},[250],[128,22850],{"className":22851,"style":1870},[254],[128,22853,1844],{"className":22854,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,22856,1848],{"className":22857},[1878],[128,22859,5505],{"className":22860,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,22862,11],{"className":22863},[259,1815],[128,22865],{"className":22866,"style":1945},[269],[128,22868,2344],{"className":22869},[1949],[128,22871],{"className":22872,"style":1945},[269],[128,22874,22876,22879,22882,22885,22888,22891],{"className":22875},[250],[128,22877],{"className":22878,"style":1870},[254],[128,22880,3154],{"className":22881},[259],[128,22883,1857],{"className":22884},[1894],[128,22886],{"className":22887,"style":1945},[269],[128,22889,2344],{"className":22890},[1949],[128,22892],{"className":22893,"style":1945},[269],[128,22895,22897,22900,22903,22906,22909],{"className":22896},[250],[128,22898],{"className":22899,"style":22716},[254],[128,22901,15508],{"className":22902},[259],[128,22904],{"className":22905,"style":1828},[269],[128,22907,3331],{"className":22908},[3375],[128,22910],{"className":22911,"style":1828},[269],[128,22913,22915,22918,22921,22924,22927],{"className":22914},[250],[128,22916],{"className":22917,"style":22716},[254],[128,22919,15694],{"className":22920},[259],[128,22922],{"className":22923,"style":1828},[269],[128,22925,4620],{"className":22926},[3375],[128,22928],{"className":22929,"style":1828},[269],[128,22931,22933,22936,22939,22942,22945],{"className":22932},[250],[128,22934],{"className":22935,"style":22716},[254],[128,22937,22556],{"className":22938},[259],[128,22940],{"className":22941,"style":1828},[269],[128,22943,3331],{"className":22944},[3375],[128,22946],{"className":22947,"style":1828},[269],[128,22949,22951,22954,22957,22960,22963],{"className":22950},[250],[128,22952],{"className":22953,"style":4875},[254],[128,22955,15895],{"className":22956},[259],[128,22958],{"className":22959,"style":1945},[269],[128,22961,2344],{"className":22962},[1949],[128,22964],{"className":22965,"style":1945},[269],[128,22967,22969,22972],{"className":22968},[250],[128,22970],{"className":22971,"style":4875},[254],[128,22973,22839],{"className":22974},[259]," 及 ",[128,22977,22979,23042],{"className":22978,"translate":218},[217],[128,22980,22982],{"className":22981},[222],[224,22983,22984],{"xmlns":226},[228,22985,22986,23039],{},[231,22987,22988,22990,22992,22994,22996,22998,23000,23002,23004,23006,23008,23010,23012,23014,23016,23018,23020,23022,23024,23026,23028,23030,23032,23034,23036],{},[1790,22989,1844],{},[1793,22991,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,22993,5510],{},[1793,22995,2344],{},[3152,22997,3154],{},[1793,22999,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,23001,5505],{},[1790,23003,11],{},[1793,23005,2344],{},[3152,23007,3154],{},[1793,23009,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,23011,2344],{},[3152,23013,15508],{},[1793,23015,3331],{},[3152,23017,15647],{},[1793,23019,3331],{},[3152,23021,15694],{},[1793,23023,4620],{},[3152,23025,22556],{},[1793,23027,3331],{},[3152,23029,15694],{},[1793,23031,3331],{},[3152,23033,15895],{},[1793,23035,2344],{},[3152,23037,23038],{},"0.066",[238,23040,23041],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1, Sp=1) = 0.3\\times 0.8\\times 0.1 + 0.7\\times 0.1\\times 0.6 = 0.066",[128,23043,23045,23069,23099,23120,23138,23156,23174,23192,23210,23228],{"className":23044,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23046,23048,23051,23054,23057,23060,23063,23066],{"className":23047},[250],[128,23049],{"className":23050,"style":1870},[254],[128,23052,1844],{"className":23053,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,23055,1848],{"className":23056},[1878],[128,23058,5510],{"className":23059,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,23061],{"className":23062,"style":1945},[269],[128,23064,2344],{"className":23065},[1949],[128,23067],{"className":23068,"style":1945},[269],[128,23070,23072,23075,23078,23081,23084,23087,23090,23093,23096],{"className":23071},[250],[128,23073],{"className":23074,"style":1811},[254],[128,23076,3154],{"className":23077},[259],[128,23079,1795],{"className":23080},[1820],[128,23082],{"className":23083,"style":1824},[269],[128,23085,5505],{"className":23086,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,23088,11],{"className":23089},[259,1815],[128,23091],{"className":23092,"style":1945},[269],[128,23094,2344],{"className":23095},[1949],[128,23097],{"className":23098,"style":1945},[269],[128,23100,23102,23105,23108,23111,23114,23117],{"className":23101},[250],[128,23103],{"className":23104,"style":1870},[254],[128,23106,3154],{"className":23107},[259],[128,23109,1857],{"className":23110},[1894],[128,23112],{"className":23113,"style":1945},[269],[128,23115,2344],{"className":23116},[1949],[128,23118],{"className":23119,"style":1945},[269],[128,23121,23123,23126,23129,23132,23135],{"className":23122},[250],[128,23124],{"className":23125,"style":22716},[254],[128,23127,15508],{"className":23128},[259],[128,23130],{"className":23131,"style":1828},[269],[128,23133,3331],{"className":23134},[3375],[128,23136],{"className":23137,"style":1828},[269],[128,23139,23141,23144,23147,23150,23153],{"className":23140},[250],[128,23142],{"className":23143,"style":22716},[254],[128,23145,15647],{"className":23146},[259],[128,23148],{"className":23149,"style":1828},[269],[128,23151,3331],{"className":23152},[3375],[128,23154],{"className":23155,"style":1828},[269],[128,23157,23159,23162,23165,23168,23171],{"className":23158},[250],[128,23160],{"className":23161,"style":22716},[254],[128,23163,15694],{"className":23164},[259],[128,23166],{"className":23167,"style":1828},[269],[128,23169,4620],{"className":23170},[3375],[128,23172],{"className":23173,"style":1828},[269],[128,23175,23177,23180,23183,23186,23189],{"className":23176},[250],[128,23178],{"className":23179,"style":22716},[254],[128,23181,22556],{"className":23182},[259],[128,23184],{"className":23185,"style":1828},[269],[128,23187,3331],{"className":23188},[3375],[128,23190],{"className":23191,"style":1828},[269],[128,23193,23195,23198,23201,23204,23207],{"className":23194},[250],[128,23196],{"className":23197,"style":22716},[254],[128,23199,15694],{"className":23200},[259],[128,23202],{"className":23203,"style":1828},[269],[128,23205,3331],{"className":23206},[3375],[128,23208],{"className":23209,"style":1828},[269],[128,23211,23213,23216,23219,23222,23225],{"className":23212},[250],[128,23214],{"className":23215,"style":4875},[254],[128,23217,15895],{"className":23218},[259],[128,23220],{"className":23221,"style":1945},[269],[128,23223,2344],{"className":23224},[1949],[128,23226],{"className":23227,"style":1945},[269],[128,23229,23231,23234],{"className":23230},[250],[128,23232],{"className":23233,"style":4875},[254],[128,23235,23038],{"className":23236},[259],"，得\n",[128,23239,23241,23290],{"className":23240,"translate":218},[217],[128,23242,23244],{"className":23243},[222],[224,23245,23246],{"xmlns":226},[228,23247,23248,23287],{},[231,23249,23250,23252,23254,23256,23258,23260,23262,23264,23266,23268,23270,23272,23274,23281,23284],{},[1790,23251,1844],{},[1793,23253,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23255,5510],{},[1793,23257,2344],{},[3152,23259,3154],{},[1793,23261,1916],{},[1790,23263,5505],{},[1790,23265,11],{},[1793,23267,2344],{},[3152,23269,3154],{},[1793,23271,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,23273,2344],{},[23275,23276,23277,23279],"mfrac",{},[3152,23278,23038],{},[3152,23280,22839],{},[1793,23282,23283],{},"≈",[3152,23285,23286],{},"0.147",[238,23288,23289],{"encoding":240},"P(R=1 \\mid Sp=1) = \\frac{0.066}{0.45} \\approx 0.147",[128,23291,23293,23317,23335,23356,23377,23468],{"className":23292,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23294,23296,23299,23302,23305,23308,23311,23314],{"className":23295},[250],[128,23297],{"className":23298,"style":1870},[254],[128,23300,1844],{"className":23301,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,23303,1848],{"className":23304},[1878],[128,23306,5510],{"className":23307,"style":5569},[259,1815],[128,23309],{"className":23310,"style":1945},[269],[128,23312,2344],{"className":23313},[1949],[128,23315],{"className":23316,"style":1945},[269],[128,23318,23320,23323,23326,23329,23332],{"className":23319},[250],[128,23321],{"className":23322,"style":1870},[254],[128,23324,3154],{"className":23325},[259],[128,23327],{"className":23328,"style":1945},[269],[128,23330,1916],{"className":23331},[1949],[128,23333],{"className":23334,"style":1945},[269],[128,23336,23338,23341,23344,23347,23350,23353],{"className":23337},[250],[128,23339],{"className":23340,"style":1811},[254],[128,23342,5505],{"className":23343,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,23345,11],{"className":23346},[259,1815],[128,23348],{"className":23349,"style":1945},[269],[128,23351,2344],{"className":23352},[1949],[128,23354],{"className":23355,"style":1945},[269],[128,23357,23359,23362,23365,23368,23371,23374],{"className":23358},[250],[128,23360],{"className":23361,"style":1870},[254],[128,23363,3154],{"className":23364},[259],[128,23366,1857],{"className":23367},[1894],[128,23369],{"className":23370,"style":1945},[269],[128,23372,2344],{"className":23373},[1949],[128,23375],{"className":23376,"style":1945},[269],[128,23378,23380,23384,23459,23462,23465],{"className":23379},[250],[128,23381],{"className":23382,"style":23383},[254],"height:1.1901em;vertical-align:-0.345em;",[128,23385,23387,23390,23456],{"className":23386},[259],[128,23388],{"className":23389},[1878,21226],[128,23391,23393],{"className":23392},[23275],[128,23394,23396,23447],{"className":23395},[274,321],[128,23397,23399,23444],{"className":23398},[278],[128,23400,23403,23418,23429],{"className":23401,"style":23402},[282],"height:0.8451em;",[128,23404,23406,23409],{"style":23405},"top:-2.655em;",[128,23407],{"className":23408,"style":335},[290],[128,23410,23412],{"className":23411},[299,300,301,298],[128,23413,23415],{"className":23414},[259,298],[128,23416,22839],{"className":23417},[259,298],[128,23419,23421,23424],{"style":23420},"top:-3.23em;",[128,23422],{"className":23423,"style":335},[290],[128,23425],{"className":23426,"style":23428},[23427],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[128,23430,23432,23435],{"style":23431},"top:-3.394em;",[128,23433],{"className":23434,"style":335},[290],[128,23436,23438],{"className":23437},[299,300,301,298],[128,23439,23441],{"className":23440},[259,298],[128,23442,23038],{"className":23443},[259,298],[128,23445,347],{"className":23446},[346],[128,23448,23450],{"className":23449},[278],[128,23451,23454],{"className":23452,"style":23453},[282],"height:0.345em;",[128,23455],{},[128,23457],{"className":23458},[1894,21226],[128,23460],{"className":23461,"style":1945},[269],[128,23463,23283],{"className":23464},[1949],[128,23466],{"className":23467,"style":1945},[269],[128,23469,23471,23474],{"className":23470},[250],[128,23472],{"className":23473,"style":4875},[254],[128,23475,23286],{"className":23476},[259],"\n二者相差一倍以上，且方向与正文的分析完全一致：",[35,23479,23480],{},"观察到洒水器开着，反而使我们对「正在下雨」的信念大幅下降",[128,23482,23484,23503],{"className":23483,"translate":218},[217],[128,23485,23487],{"className":23486},[222],[224,23488,23489],{"xmlns":226},[228,23490,23491,23500],{},[231,23492,23493,23495,23498],{},[3152,23494,23286],{},[1793,23496,23497],{},"\u003C",[3152,23499,22565],{},[238,23501,23502],{"encoding":240},"0.147 \u003C 0.31",[128,23504,23506,23525],{"className":23505,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23507,23509,23513,23516,23519,23522],{"className":23508},[250],[128,23510],{"className":23511,"style":23512},[254],"height:0.6835em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[128,23514,23286],{"className":23515},[259],[128,23517],{"className":23518,"style":1945},[269],[128,23520,23497],{"className":23521},[1949],[128,23523],{"className":23524,"style":1945},[269],[128,23526,23528,23531],{"className":23527},[250],[128,23529],{"className":23530,"style":4875},[254],[128,23532,22565],{"className":23533},[259],"）——因为洒水器在旱季更常开启，观测到它本身即构成「当前是旱季」的证据，进而压低降雨概率。这两个数字之间的差距，就是「相关」与「因果」在同一个模型内部的全部分量。",[11,23536,23537,23538,23713],{},"一般地，",[128,23539,23541,23587],{"className":23540,"translate":218},[217],[128,23542,23544],{"className":23543},[222],[224,23545,23546],{"xmlns":226},[228,23547,23548,23584],{},[231,23549,23550,23552,23554,23556,23558,23560,23562,23564,23566,23568,23570,23572,23574,23576,23578,23580,23582],{},[1790,23551,1844],{},[1793,23553,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23555,2276],{},[1793,23557,1916],{},[1790,23559,2281],{},[1793,23561,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,23563,20605],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,23565,1844],{},[1793,23567,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23569,2276],{},[1793,23571,1916],{},[1790,23573,2438],{},[1790,23575,2441],{},[1793,23577,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23579,2281],{},[1793,23581,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,23583,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,23585,23586],{"encoding":240},"P(y\\mid x) \\neq P(y \\mid do(x))",[128,23588,23590,23614,23668,23692],{"className":23589,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23591,23593,23596,23599,23602,23605,23608,23611],{"className":23592},[250],[128,23594],{"className":23595,"style":1870},[254],[128,23597,1844],{"className":23598,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,23600,1848],{"className":23601},[1878],[128,23603,2276],{"className":23604,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,23606],{"className":23607,"style":1945},[269],[128,23609,1916],{"className":23610},[1949],[128,23612],{"className":23613,"style":1945},[269],[128,23615,23617,23620,23623,23626,23629,23665],{"className":23616},[250],[128,23618],{"className":23619,"style":1870},[254],[128,23621,2281],{"className":23622},[259,1815],[128,23624,1857],{"className":23625},[1894],[128,23627],{"className":23628,"style":1945},[269],[128,23630,23632,23659,23662],{"className":23631},[1949],[128,23633,23635],{"className":23634},[1949],[128,23636,23638],{"className":23637},[259,6189],[128,23639,23641],{"className":23640},[6193],[128,23642,23644,23647,23656],{"className":23643},[6197],[128,23645],{"className":23646,"style":6176},[254],[128,23648,23650],{"className":23649},[6204],[128,23651,23653],{"className":23652},[259],[128,23654,6211],{"className":23655},[1949],[128,23657],{"className":23658},[6215],[128,23660],{"className":23661},[269,6219],[128,23663,2344],{"className":23664},[1949],[128,23666],{"className":23667,"style":1945},[269],[128,23669,23671,23674,23677,23680,23683,23686,23689],{"className":23670},[250],[128,23672],{"className":23673,"style":1870},[254],[128,23675,1844],{"className":23676,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,23678,1848],{"className":23679},[1878],[128,23681,2276],{"className":23682,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,23684],{"className":23685,"style":1945},[269],[128,23687,1916],{"className":23688},[1949],[128,23690],{"className":23691,"style":1945},[269],[128,23693,23695,23698,23701,23704,23707,23710],{"className":23694},[250],[128,23696],{"className":23697,"style":1870},[254],[128,23699,2438],{"className":23700},[259,1815],[128,23702,2441],{"className":23703},[259,1815],[128,23705,1848],{"className":23706},[1878],[128,23708,2281],{"className":23709},[259,1815],[128,23711,2501],{"className":23712},[1894],"，二者的差异正是「相关不蕴含因果」这一箴言在结构方程框架下的精确定量表述：前者包含了通过混杂路径（如叉结构）传递的虚假信息，后者则通过对结构方程的手术式修改将其剔除。",[3038,23715,23717],{"id":23716},"_33-反事实从群体到个体","3.3 反事实：从群体到个体",[11,23719,23720,23721,23804,23805,23808,23809,2553,23859,23887,23888,23891,23892,24043,24044,2969,24072,24201,24202,24230],{},"干预分布 ",[128,23722,23724,23756],{"className":23723,"translate":218},[217],[128,23725,23727],{"className":23726},[222],[224,23728,23729],{"xmlns":226},[228,23730,23731,23753],{},[231,23732,23733,23735,23737,23739,23741,23743,23745,23747,23749,23751],{},[1790,23734,1844],{},[1793,23736,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23738,2276],{},[1793,23740,1916],{},[1790,23742,2438],{},[1790,23744,2441],{},[1793,23746,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,23748,2281],{},[1793,23750,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,23752,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,23754,23755],{"encoding":240},"P(y \\mid do(x))",[128,23757,23759,23783],{"className":23758,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23760,23762,23765,23768,23771,23774,23777,23780],{"className":23761},[250],[128,23763],{"className":23764,"style":1870},[254],[128,23766,1844],{"className":23767,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,23769,1848],{"className":23770},[1878],[128,23772,2276],{"className":23773,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,23775],{"className":23776,"style":1945},[269],[128,23778,1916],{"className":23779},[1949],[128,23781],{"className":23782,"style":1945},[269],[128,23784,23786,23789,23792,23795,23798,23801],{"className":23785},[250],[128,23787],{"className":23788,"style":1870},[254],[128,23790,2438],{"className":23791},[259,1815],[128,23793,2441],{"className":23794},[259,1815],[128,23796,1848],{"className":23797},[1878],[128,23799,2281],{"className":23800},[259,1815],[128,23802,2501],{"className":23803},[1894]," 回答的是",[35,23806,23807],{},"群体或总体层面","的问题：「若对某个（服从既定分布的）个体施加干预 ",[128,23810,23812,23829],{"className":23811,"translate":218},[217],[128,23813,23815],{"className":23814},[222],[224,23816,23817],{"xmlns":226},[228,23818,23819,23827],{},[231,23820,23821,23823,23825],{},[1790,23822,364],{},[1793,23824,2344],{},[1790,23826,2281],{},[238,23828,2349],{"encoding":240},[128,23830,23832,23850],{"className":23831,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23833,23835,23838,23841,23844,23847],{"className":23834},[250],[128,23836],{"className":23837,"style":283},[254],[128,23839,364],{"className":23840,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,23842],{"className":23843,"style":1945},[269],[128,23845,2344],{"className":23846},[1949],[128,23848],{"className":23849,"style":1945},[269],[128,23851,23853,23856],{"className":23852},[250],[128,23854],{"className":23855,"style":2377},[254],[128,23857,2281],{"className":23858},[259,1815],[128,23860,23862,23875],{"className":23861,"translate":218},[217],[128,23863,23865],{"className":23864},[222],[224,23866,23867],{"xmlns":226},[228,23868,23869,23873],{},[231,23870,23871],{},[1790,23872,1798],{},[238,23874,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,23876,23878],{"className":23877,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23879,23881,23884],{"className":23880},[250],[128,23882],{"className":23883,"style":283},[254],[128,23885,1798],{"className":23886,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的分布会是什么」。而反事实推理进一步追问",[35,23889,23890],{},"特定已观测个体","层面的问题：「对于这个已经观测到 ",[128,23893,23895,23928],{"className":23894,"translate":218},[217],[128,23896,23898],{"className":23897},[222],[224,23899,23900],{"xmlns":226},[228,23901,23902,23926],{},[231,23903,23904,23906,23908,23914,23916,23918,23920],{},[1790,23905,364],{},[1793,23907,2344],{},[2614,23909,23910,23912],{},[1790,23911,2281],{},[1793,23913,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,23915,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,23917,1798],{},[1793,23919,2344],{},[2614,23921,23922,23924],{},[1790,23923,2276],{},[1793,23925,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[238,23927,2823],{"encoding":240},[128,23929,23931,23949,24005],{"className":23930,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,23932,23934,23937,23940,23943,23946],{"className":23933},[250],[128,23935],{"className":23936,"style":283},[254],[128,23938,364],{"className":23939,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,23941],{"className":23942,"style":1945},[269],[128,23944,2344],{"className":23945},[1949],[128,23947],{"className":23948,"style":1945},[269],[128,23950,23952,23955,23987,23990,23993,23996,23999,24002],{"className":23951},[250],[128,23953],{"className":23954,"style":2851},[254],[128,23956,23958,23961],{"className":23957},[259],[128,23959,2281],{"className":23960},[259,1815],[128,23962,23964],{"className":23963},[2660],[128,23965,23967],{"className":23966},[274],[128,23968,23970],{"className":23969},[278],[128,23971,23973],{"className":23972,"style":2729},[282],[128,23974,23975,23978],{"style":2732},[128,23976],{"className":23977,"style":291},[290],[128,23979,23981],{"className":23980},[299,300,301,298],[128,23982,23984],{"className":23983},[259,298],[128,23985,2622],{"className":23986},[259,298],[128,23988,1795],{"className":23989},[1820],[128,23991],{"className":23992,"style":1824},[269],[128,23994,1798],{"className":23995,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,23997],{"className":23998,"style":1945},[269],[128,24000,2344],{"className":24001},[1949],[128,24003],{"className":24004,"style":1945},[269],[128,24006,24008,24011],{"className":24007},[250],[128,24009],{"className":24010,"style":2851},[254],[128,24012,24014,24017],{"className":24013},[259],[128,24015,2276],{"className":24016,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,24018,24020],{"className":24019},[2660],[128,24021,24023],{"className":24022},[274],[128,24024,24026],{"className":24025},[278],[128,24027,24029],{"className":24028,"style":2729},[282],[128,24030,24031,24034],{"style":2732},[128,24032],{"className":24033,"style":291},[290],[128,24035,24037],{"className":24036},[299,300,301,298],[128,24038,24040],{"className":24039},[259,298],[128,24041,2622],{"className":24042},[259,298]," 的具体个体，若当初 ",[128,24045,24047,24060],{"className":24046,"translate":218},[217],[128,24048,24050],{"className":24049},[222],[224,24051,24052],{"xmlns":226},[228,24053,24054,24058],{},[231,24055,24056],{},[1790,24057,364],{},[238,24059,364],{"encoding":240},[128,24061,24063],{"className":24062,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24064,24066,24069],{"className":24065},[250],[128,24067],{"className":24068,"style":283},[254],[128,24070,364],{"className":24071,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,24073,24075,24103],{"className":24074,"translate":218},[217],[128,24076,24078],{"className":24077},[222],[224,24079,24080],{"xmlns":226},[228,24081,24082,24100],{},[231,24083,24084,24086,24088,24090,24092,24098],{},[1790,24085,2281],{},[234,24087,5652],{},[1793,24089,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,24091,20605],{"mathvariant":2620},[2614,24093,24094,24096],{},[1790,24095,2281],{},[1793,24097,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,24099,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,24101,24102],{"encoding":240},"x \\ (\\neq x')",[128,24104,24106,24160],{"className":24105,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24107,24109,24112,24115,24118,24121,24157],{"className":24108},[250],[128,24110],{"className":24111,"style":1870},[254],[128,24113,2281],{"className":24114},[259,1815],[128,24116,5652],{"className":24117},[269],[128,24119,1848],{"className":24120},[1878],[128,24122,24124,24151,24154],{"className":24123},[1949],[128,24125,24127],{"className":24126},[1949],[128,24128,24130],{"className":24129},[259,6189],[128,24131,24133],{"className":24132},[6193],[128,24134,24136,24139,24148],{"className":24135},[6197],[128,24137],{"className":24138,"style":6176},[254],[128,24140,24142],{"className":24141},[6204],[128,24143,24145],{"className":24144},[259],[128,24146,6211],{"className":24147},[1949],[128,24149],{"className":24150},[6215],[128,24152],{"className":24153},[269,6219],[128,24155,2344],{"className":24156},[1949],[128,24158],{"className":24159,"style":1945},[269],[128,24161,24163,24166,24198],{"className":24162},[250],[128,24164],{"className":24165,"style":2710},[254],[128,24167,24169,24172],{"className":24168},[259],[128,24170,2281],{"className":24171},[259,1815],[128,24173,24175],{"className":24174},[2660],[128,24176,24178],{"className":24177},[274],[128,24179,24181],{"className":24180},[278],[128,24182,24184],{"className":24183,"style":2729},[282],[128,24185,24186,24189],{"style":2732},[128,24187],{"className":24188,"style":291},[290],[128,24190,24192],{"className":24191},[299,300,301,298],[128,24193,24195],{"className":24194},[259,298],[128,24196,2622],{"className":24197},[259,298],[128,24199,1857],{"className":24200},[1894],"，其 ",[128,24203,24205,24218],{"className":24204,"translate":218},[217],[128,24206,24208],{"className":24207},[222],[224,24209,24210],{"xmlns":226},[228,24211,24212,24216],{},[231,24213,24214],{},[1790,24215,1798],{},[238,24217,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,24219,24221],{"className":24220,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24222,24224,24227],{"className":24223},[250],[128,24225],{"className":24226,"style":283},[254],[128,24228,1798],{"className":24229,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 会是什么」。这需要更精细的结构。",[64,24232,24233],{},[11,24234,24235,12783,24238,24266,24267,24318,24319,24347,24348,24398,24399,24402,24403,8416,24472,24522,24523],{},[35,24236,24237],{},"定义 3.4（潜在结果，Potential Outcome）",[128,24239,24241,24254],{"className":24240,"translate":218},[217],[128,24242,24244],{"className":24243},[222],[224,24245,24246],{"xmlns":226},[228,24247,24248,24252],{},[231,24249,24250],{},[1790,24251,11188],{},[238,24253,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,24255,24257],{"className":24256,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24258,24260,24263],{"className":24259},[250],[128,24261],{"className":24262,"style":283},[254],[128,24264,11188],{"className":24265,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 与其外生变量的一次具体实现 ",[128,24268,24270,24288],{"className":24269,"translate":218},[217],[128,24271,24273],{"className":24272},[222],[224,24274,24275],{"xmlns":226},[228,24276,24277,24285],{},[231,24278,24279,24281,24283],{},[1790,24280,4184],{},[1793,24282,2344],{},[1790,24284,15496],{},[238,24286,24287],{"encoding":240},"U=u",[128,24289,24291,24309],{"className":24290,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24292,24294,24297,24300,24303,24306],{"className":24293},[250],[128,24295],{"className":24296,"style":283},[254],[128,24298,4184],{"className":24299,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,24301],{"className":24302,"style":1945},[269],[128,24304,2344],{"className":24305},[1949],[128,24307],{"className":24308,"style":1945},[269],[128,24310,24312,24315],{"className":24311},[250],[128,24313],{"className":24314,"style":2377},[254],[128,24316,15496],{"className":24317},[259,1815],"（对应一个特定「个体」或「世界状态」），变量 ",[128,24320,24322,24335],{"className":24321,"translate":218},[217],[128,24323,24325],{"className":24324},[222],[224,24326,24327],{"xmlns":226},[228,24328,24329,24333],{},[231,24330,24331],{},[1790,24332,1798],{},[238,24334,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,24336,24338],{"className":24337,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24339,24341,24344],{"className":24340},[250],[128,24342],{"className":24343,"style":283},[254],[128,24345,1798],{"className":24346,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 在假设 ",[128,24349,24351,24368],{"className":24350,"translate":218},[217],[128,24352,24354],{"className":24353},[222],[224,24355,24356],{"xmlns":226},[228,24357,24358,24366],{},[231,24359,24360,24362,24364],{},[1790,24361,364],{},[1793,24363,2344],{},[1790,24365,2281],{},[238,24367,2349],{"encoding":240},[128,24369,24371,24389],{"className":24370,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24372,24374,24377,24380,24383,24386],{"className":24373},[250],[128,24375],{"className":24376,"style":283},[254],[128,24378,364],{"className":24379,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,24381],{"className":24382,"style":1945},[269],[128,24384,2344],{"className":24385},[1949],[128,24387],{"className":24388,"style":1945},[269],[128,24390,24392,24395],{"className":24391},[250],[128,24393],{"className":24394,"style":2377},[254],[128,24396,2281],{"className":24397},[259,1815]," 下的",[35,24400,24401],{},"潜在结果","定义为子模型 ",[128,24404,24406,24423],{"className":24405,"translate":218},[217],[128,24407,24409],{"className":24408},[222],[224,24410,24411],{"xmlns":226},[228,24412,24413,24421],{},[231,24414,24415],{},[2605,24416,24417,24419],{},[1790,24418,11188],{},[1790,24420,2281],{},[238,24422,19911],{"encoding":240},[128,24424,24426],{"className":24425,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24427,24429,24432],{"className":24428},[250],[128,24430],{"className":24431,"style":3592},[254],[128,24433,24435,24438],{"className":24434},[259],[128,24436,11188],{"className":24437,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,24439,24441],{"className":24440},[2660],[128,24442,24444,24464],{"className":24443},[274,321],[128,24445,24447,24461],{"className":24446},[278],[128,24448,24450],{"className":24449,"style":2670},[282],[128,24451,24452,24455],{"style":4311},[128,24453],{"className":24454,"style":291},[290],[128,24456,24458],{"className":24457},[299,300,301,298],[128,24459,2281],{"className":24460},[259,1815,298],[128,24462,347],{"className":24463},[346],[128,24465,24467],{"className":24466},[278],[128,24468,24470],{"className":24469,"style":2692},[282],[128,24471],{},[128,24473,24475,24492],{"className":24474,"translate":218},[217],[128,24476,24478],{"className":24477},[222],[224,24479,24480],{"xmlns":226},[228,24481,24482,24490],{},[231,24483,24484,24486,24488],{},[1790,24485,4184],{},[1793,24487,2344],{},[1790,24489,15496],{},[238,24491,24287],{"encoding":240},[128,24493,24495,24513],{"className":24494,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24496,24498,24501,24504,24507,24510],{"className":24497},[250],[128,24499],{"className":24500,"style":283},[254],[128,24502,4184],{"className":24503,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,24505],{"className":24506,"style":1945},[269],[128,24508,2344],{"className":24509},[1949],[128,24511],{"className":24512,"style":1945},[269],[128,24514,24516,24519],{"className":24515},[250],[128,24517],{"className":24518,"style":2377},[254],[128,24520,15496],{"className":24521},[259,1815]," 下的取值：\n",[128,24524,24526,24570],{"className":24525,"translate":218},[217],[128,24527,24529],{"className":24528},[222],[224,24530,24531],{"xmlns":226},[228,24532,24533,24567],{},[231,24534,24535,24541,24543,24545,24547,24549,24551,24561,24563,24565],{},[2605,24536,24537,24539],{},[1790,24538,1798],{},[1790,24540,2281],{},[1793,24542,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,24544,15496],{},[1793,24546,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,24548,10582],{},[1793,24550,2344],{},[2605,24552,24553,24555],{},[1790,24554,1798],{},[2605,24556,24557,24559],{},[1790,24558,11188],{},[1790,24560,2281],{},[1793,24562,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,24564,15496],{},[1793,24566,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,24568,24569],{"encoding":240},"Y_x(u) := Y_{M_x}(u)",[128,24571,24573,24637],{"className":24572,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24574,24576,24579,24619,24622,24625,24628,24631,24634],{"className":24575},[250],[128,24577],{"className":24578,"style":1870},[254],[128,24580,24582,24585],{"className":24581},[259],[128,24583,1798],{"className":24584,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,24586,24588],{"className":24587},[2660],[128,24589,24591,24611],{"className":24590},[274,321],[128,24592,24594,24608],{"className":24593},[278],[128,24595,24597],{"className":24596,"style":2670},[282],[128,24598,24599,24602],{"style":3226},[128,24600],{"className":24601,"style":291},[290],[128,24603,24605],{"className":24604},[299,300,301,298],[128,24606,2281],{"className":24607},[259,1815,298],[128,24609,347],{"className":24610},[346],[128,24612,24614],{"className":24613},[278],[128,24615,24617],{"className":24616,"style":2692},[282],[128,24618],{},[128,24620,1848],{"className":24621},[1878],[128,24623,15496],{"className":24624},[259,1815],[128,24626,1857],{"className":24627},[1894],[128,24629],{"className":24630,"style":1945},[269],[128,24632,10618],{"className":24633},[1949],[128,24635],{"className":24636,"style":1945},[269],[128,24638,24640,24643,24723,24726,24729],{"className":24639},[250],[128,24641],{"className":24642,"style":20080},[254],[128,24644,24646,24649],{"className":24645},[259],[128,24647,1798],{"className":24648,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,24650,24652],{"className":24651},[2660],[128,24653,24655,24715],{"className":24654},[274,321],[128,24656,24658,24712],{"className":24657},[278],[128,24659,24661],{"className":24660,"style":9078},[282],[128,24662,24663,24666],{"style":3226},[128,24664],{"className":24665,"style":291},[290],[128,24667,24669],{"className":24668},[299,300,301,298],[128,24670,24672],{"className":24671},[259,298],[128,24673,24675,24678],{"className":24674},[259,298],[128,24676,11188],{"className":24677,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,24679,24681],{"className":24680},[2660],[128,24682,24684,24704],{"className":24683},[274,321],[128,24685,24687,24701],{"className":24686},[278],[128,24688,24690],{"className":24689,"style":20128},[282],[128,24691,24692,24695],{"style":20131},[128,24693],{"className":24694,"style":20135},[290],[128,24696,24698],{"className":24697},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,24699,2281],{"className":24700},[259,1815,298],[128,24702,347],{"className":24703},[346],[128,24705,24707],{"className":24706},[278],[128,24708,24710],{"className":24709,"style":20152},[282],[128,24711],{},[128,24713,347],{"className":24714},[346],[128,24716,24718],{"className":24717},[278],[128,24719,24721],{"className":24720,"style":20164},[282],[128,24722],{},[128,24724,1848],{"className":24725},[1878],[128,24727,15496],{"className":24728},[259,1815],[128,24730,1857],{"className":24731},[1894],[64,24733,24734,25096],{},[11,24735,24736,24739,24740,24791,24792,24943,24944,25095],{},[35,24737,24738],{},"算法 3.1（反事实查询的三步算法）"," 给定观测证据 ",[128,24741,24743,24761],{"className":24742,"translate":218},[217],[128,24744,24746],{"className":24745},[222],[224,24747,24748],{"xmlns":226},[228,24749,24750,24758],{},[231,24751,24752,24754,24756],{},[1790,24753,342],{},[1793,24755,2344],{},[1790,24757,15486],{},[238,24759,24760],{"encoding":240},"E=e",[128,24762,24764,24782],{"className":24763,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24765,24767,24770,24773,24776,24779],{"className":24766},[250],[128,24768],{"className":24769,"style":283},[254],[128,24771,342],{"className":24772,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,24774],{"className":24775,"style":1945},[269],[128,24777,2344],{"className":24778},[1949],[128,24780],{"className":24781,"style":1945},[269],[128,24783,24785,24788],{"className":24784},[250],[128,24786],{"className":24787,"style":2377},[254],[128,24789,15486],{"className":24790},[259,1815],"（例如 ",[128,24793,24795,24828],{"className":24794,"translate":218},[217],[128,24796,24798],{"className":24797},[222],[224,24799,24800],{"xmlns":226},[228,24801,24802,24826],{},[231,24803,24804,24806,24808,24814,24816,24818,24820],{},[1790,24805,364],{},[1793,24807,2344],{},[2614,24809,24810,24812],{},[1790,24811,2281],{},[1793,24813,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,24815,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,24817,1798],{},[1793,24819,2344],{},[2614,24821,24822,24824],{},[1790,24823,2276],{},[1793,24825,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[238,24827,2823],{"encoding":240},[128,24829,24831,24849,24905],{"className":24830,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24832,24834,24837,24840,24843,24846],{"className":24833},[250],[128,24835],{"className":24836,"style":283},[254],[128,24838,364],{"className":24839,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,24841],{"className":24842,"style":1945},[269],[128,24844,2344],{"className":24845},[1949],[128,24847],{"className":24848,"style":1945},[269],[128,24850,24852,24855,24887,24890,24893,24896,24899,24902],{"className":24851},[250],[128,24853],{"className":24854,"style":2851},[254],[128,24856,24858,24861],{"className":24857},[259],[128,24859,2281],{"className":24860},[259,1815],[128,24862,24864],{"className":24863},[2660],[128,24865,24867],{"className":24866},[274],[128,24868,24870],{"className":24869},[278],[128,24871,24873],{"className":24872,"style":2729},[282],[128,24874,24875,24878],{"style":2732},[128,24876],{"className":24877,"style":291},[290],[128,24879,24881],{"className":24880},[299,300,301,298],[128,24882,24884],{"className":24883},[259,298],[128,24885,2622],{"className":24886},[259,298],[128,24888,1795],{"className":24889},[1820],[128,24891],{"className":24892,"style":1824},[269],[128,24894,1798],{"className":24895,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,24897],{"className":24898,"style":1945},[269],[128,24900,2344],{"className":24901},[1949],[128,24903],{"className":24904,"style":1945},[269],[128,24906,24908,24911],{"className":24907},[250],[128,24909],{"className":24910,"style":2851},[254],[128,24912,24914,24917],{"className":24913},[259],[128,24915,2276],{"className":24916,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,24918,24920],{"className":24919},[2660],[128,24921,24923],{"className":24922},[274],[128,24924,24926],{"className":24925},[278],[128,24927,24929],{"className":24928,"style":2729},[282],[128,24930,24931,24934],{"style":2732},[128,24932],{"className":24933,"style":291},[290],[128,24935,24937],{"className":24936},[299,300,301,298],[128,24938,24940],{"className":24939},[259,298],[128,24941,2622],{"className":24942},[259,298],"），欲计算反事实量 ",[128,24945,24947,24983],{"className":24946,"translate":218},[217],[128,24948,24950],{"className":24949},[222],[224,24951,24952],{"xmlns":226},[228,24953,24954,24980],{},[231,24955,24956,24958,24960,24966,24968,24970,24972,24974,24976,24978],{},[1790,24957,1844],{},[1793,24959,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,24961,24962,24964],{},[1790,24963,1798],{},[1790,24965,2281],{},[1793,24967,2344],{},[1790,24969,2276],{},[1793,24971,1916],{},[1790,24973,342],{},[1793,24975,2344],{},[1790,24977,15486],{},[1793,24979,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,24981,24982],{"encoding":240},"P(Y_x = y \\mid E=e)",[128,24984,24986,25047,25065,25083],{"className":24985,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,24987,24989,24992,24995,24998,25038,25041,25044],{"className":24988},[250],[128,24990],{"className":24991,"style":1870},[254],[128,24993,1844],{"className":24994,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,24996,1848],{"className":24997},[1878],[128,24999,25001,25004],{"className":25000},[259],[128,25002,1798],{"className":25003,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,25005,25007],{"className":25006},[2660],[128,25008,25010,25030],{"className":25009},[274,321],[128,25011,25013,25027],{"className":25012},[278],[128,25014,25016],{"className":25015,"style":2670},[282],[128,25017,25018,25021],{"style":3226},[128,25019],{"className":25020,"style":291},[290],[128,25022,25024],{"className":25023},[299,300,301,298],[128,25025,2281],{"className":25026},[259,1815,298],[128,25028,347],{"className":25029},[346],[128,25031,25033],{"className":25032},[278],[128,25034,25036],{"className":25035,"style":2692},[282],[128,25037],{},[128,25039],{"className":25040,"style":1945},[269],[128,25042,2344],{"className":25043},[1949],[128,25045],{"className":25046,"style":1945},[269],[128,25048,25050,25053,25056,25059,25062],{"className":25049},[250],[128,25051],{"className":25052,"style":1870},[254],[128,25054,2276],{"className":25055,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,25057],{"className":25058,"style":1945},[269],[128,25060,1916],{"className":25061},[1949],[128,25063],{"className":25064,"style":1945},[269],[128,25066,25068,25071,25074,25077,25080],{"className":25067},[250],[128,25069],{"className":25070,"style":283},[254],[128,25072,342],{"className":25073,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,25075],{"className":25076,"style":1945},[269],[128,25078,2344],{"className":25079},[1949],[128,25081],{"className":25082,"style":1945},[269],[128,25084,25086,25089,25092],{"className":25085},[250],[128,25087],{"className":25088,"style":1870},[254],[128,25090,15486],{"className":25091},[259,1815],[128,25093,1857],{"className":25094},[1894],"，分三步进行：",[9643,25097,25098,25244,25391],{},[2252,25099,25100,25103,25104,25132,25133,25176,25177,25243],{},[35,25101,25102],{},"溯因（Abduction）","：利用观测证据 ",[128,25105,25107,25120],{"className":25106,"translate":218},[217],[128,25108,25110],{"className":25109},[222],[224,25111,25112],{"xmlns":226},[228,25113,25114,25118],{},[231,25115,25116],{},[1790,25117,15486],{},[238,25119,15486],{"encoding":240},[128,25121,25123],{"className":25122,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25124,25126,25129],{"className":25125},[250],[128,25127],{"className":25128,"style":2377},[254],[128,25130,15486],{"className":25131},[259,1815],"，将外生变量的先验分布 ",[128,25134,25136,25155],{"className":25135,"translate":218},[217],[128,25137,25139],{"className":25138},[222],[224,25140,25141],{"xmlns":226},[228,25142,25143,25153],{},[231,25144,25145,25147,25149,25151],{},[1790,25146,1844],{},[1793,25148,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25150,4184],{},[1793,25152,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,25154,12724],{"encoding":240},[128,25156,25158],{"className":25157,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25159,25161,25164,25167,25170,25173],{"className":25160},[250],[128,25162],{"className":25163,"style":1870},[254],[128,25165,1844],{"className":25166,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25168,1848],{"className":25169},[1878],[128,25171,4184],{"className":25172,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,25174,1857],{"className":25175},[1894]," 更新为后验分布 ",[128,25178,25180,25204],{"className":25179,"translate":218},[217],[128,25181,25183],{"className":25182},[222],[224,25184,25185],{"xmlns":226},[228,25186,25187,25201],{},[231,25188,25189,25191,25193,25195,25197,25199],{},[1790,25190,1844],{},[1793,25192,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25194,4184],{},[1793,25196,1916],{},[1790,25198,15486],{},[1793,25200,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,25202,25203],{"encoding":240},"P(U \\mid e)",[128,25205,25207,25231],{"className":25206,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25208,25210,25213,25216,25219,25222,25225,25228],{"className":25209},[250],[128,25211],{"className":25212,"style":1870},[254],[128,25214,1844],{"className":25215,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25217,1848],{"className":25218},[1878],[128,25220,4184],{"className":25221,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,25223],{"className":25224,"style":1945},[269],[128,25226,1916],{"className":25227},[1949],[128,25229],{"className":25230,"style":1945},[269],[128,25232,25234,25237,25240],{"className":25233},[250],[128,25235],{"className":25236,"style":1870},[254],[128,25238,15486],{"className":25239},[259,1815],[128,25241,1857],{"className":25242},[1894],"，即根据「结果倒推该个体所处的具体随机情境」；",[2252,25245,25246,25249,25250,25320,25321,25390],{},[35,25247,25248],{},"行动（Action）","：对结构方程集合施加 ",[128,25251,25253,25278],{"className":25252,"translate":218},[217],[128,25254,25256],{"className":25255},[222],[224,25257,25258],{"xmlns":226},[228,25259,25260,25276],{},[231,25261,25262,25264,25266,25268,25270,25272,25274],{},[1790,25263,2438],{},[1790,25265,2441],{},[1793,25267,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25269,364],{},[1793,25271,2344],{},[1790,25273,2281],{},[1793,25275,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,25277,9799],{"encoding":240},[128,25279,25281,25308],{"className":25280,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25282,25284,25287,25290,25293,25296,25299,25302,25305],{"className":25283},[250],[128,25285],{"className":25286,"style":1870},[254],[128,25288,2438],{"className":25289},[259,1815],[128,25291,2441],{"className":25292},[259,1815],[128,25294,1848],{"className":25295},[1878],[128,25297,364],{"className":25298,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,25300],{"className":25301,"style":1945},[269],[128,25303,2344],{"className":25304},[1949],[128,25306],{"className":25307,"style":1945},[269],[128,25309,25311,25314,25317],{"className":25310},[250],[128,25312],{"className":25313,"style":1870},[254],[128,25315,2281],{"className":25316},[259,1815],[128,25318,1857],{"className":25319},[1894],"，得到子模型 ",[128,25322,25324,25341],{"className":25323,"translate":218},[217],[128,25325,25327],{"className":25326},[222],[224,25328,25329],{"xmlns":226},[228,25330,25331,25339],{},[231,25332,25333],{},[2605,25334,25335,25337],{},[1790,25336,11188],{},[1790,25338,2281],{},[238,25340,19911],{"encoding":240},[128,25342,25344],{"className":25343,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25345,25347,25350],{"className":25346},[250],[128,25348],{"className":25349,"style":3592},[254],[128,25351,25353,25356],{"className":25352},[259],[128,25354,11188],{"className":25355,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,25357,25359],{"className":25358},[2660],[128,25360,25362,25382],{"className":25361},[274,321],[128,25363,25365,25379],{"className":25364},[278],[128,25366,25368],{"className":25367,"style":2670},[282],[128,25369,25370,25373],{"style":4311},[128,25371],{"className":25372,"style":291},[290],[128,25374,25376],{"className":25375},[299,300,301,298],[128,25377,2281],{"className":25378},[259,1815,298],[128,25380,347],{"className":25381},[346],[128,25383,25385],{"className":25384},[278],[128,25386,25388],{"className":25387,"style":2692},[282],[128,25389],{},"（同定义 3.2）；",[2252,25392,25393,25396,25397,25466,25467,25533,25534,25562,25563],{},[35,25394,25395],{},"预测（Prediction）","：在子模型 ",[128,25398,25400,25417],{"className":25399,"translate":218},[217],[128,25401,25403],{"className":25402},[222],[224,25404,25405],{"xmlns":226},[228,25406,25407,25415],{},[231,25408,25409],{},[2605,25410,25411,25413],{},[1790,25412,11188],{},[1790,25414,2281],{},[238,25416,19911],{"encoding":240},[128,25418,25420],{"className":25419,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25421,25423,25426],{"className":25422},[250],[128,25424],{"className":25425,"style":3592},[254],[128,25427,25429,25432],{"className":25428},[259],[128,25430,11188],{"className":25431,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,25433,25435],{"className":25434},[2660],[128,25436,25438,25458],{"className":25437},[274,321],[128,25439,25441,25455],{"className":25440},[278],[128,25442,25444],{"className":25443,"style":2670},[282],[128,25445,25446,25449],{"style":4311},[128,25447],{"className":25448,"style":291},[290],[128,25450,25452],{"className":25451},[299,300,301,298],[128,25453,2281],{"className":25454},[259,1815,298],[128,25456,347],{"className":25457},[346],[128,25459,25461],{"className":25460},[278],[128,25462,25464],{"className":25463,"style":2692},[282],[128,25465],{}," 中，用第一步得到的后验分布 ",[128,25468,25470,25494],{"className":25469,"translate":218},[217],[128,25471,25473],{"className":25472},[222],[224,25474,25475],{"xmlns":226},[228,25476,25477,25491],{},[231,25478,25479,25481,25483,25485,25487,25489],{},[1790,25480,1844],{},[1793,25482,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25484,4184],{},[1793,25486,1916],{},[1790,25488,15486],{},[1793,25490,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,25492,25493],{"encoding":240},"P(U\\mid e)",[128,25495,25497,25521],{"className":25496,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25498,25500,25503,25506,25509,25512,25515,25518],{"className":25499},[250],[128,25501],{"className":25502,"style":1870},[254],[128,25504,1844],{"className":25505,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25507,1848],{"className":25508},[1878],[128,25510,4184],{"className":25511,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,25513],{"className":25514,"style":1945},[269],[128,25516,1916],{"className":25517},[1949],[128,25519],{"className":25520,"style":1945},[269],[128,25522,25524,25527,25530],{"className":25523},[250],[128,25525],{"className":25526,"style":1870},[254],[128,25528,15486],{"className":25529},[259,1815],[128,25531,1857],{"className":25532},[1894]," 计算 ",[128,25535,25537,25550],{"className":25536,"translate":218},[217],[128,25538,25540],{"className":25539},[222],[224,25541,25542],{"xmlns":226},[228,25543,25544,25548],{},[231,25545,25546],{},[1790,25547,1798],{},[238,25549,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,25551,25553],{"className":25552,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25554,25556,25559],{"className":25555},[250],[128,25557],{"className":25558,"style":283},[254],[128,25560,1798],{"className":25561,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的分布，即为所求反事实分布：\n",[128,25564,25566,25646],{"className":25565,"translate":218},[217],[128,25567,25569],{"className":25568},[222],[224,25570,25571],{"xmlns":226},[228,25572,25573,25643],{},[231,25574,25575,25577,25579,25585,25587,25589,25591,25593,25595,25597,25603,25605,25607,25617,25619,25621,25623,25625,25627,25629,25631,25633,25635,25637,25639,25641],{},[1790,25576,1844],{},[1793,25578,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,25580,25581,25583],{},[1790,25582,1798],{},[1790,25584,2281],{},[1793,25586,2344],{},[1790,25588,2276],{},[1793,25590,1916],{},[1790,25592,15486],{},[1793,25594,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,25596,2344],{},[2605,25598,25599,25601],{},[1793,25600,22140],{},[1790,25602,15496],{},[1790,25604,1844],{},[1793,25606,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,25608,25609,25611],{},[1790,25610,1798],{},[2605,25612,25613,25615],{},[1790,25614,11188],{},[1790,25616,2281],{},[1793,25618,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25620,15496],{},[1793,25622,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,25624,2344],{},[1790,25626,2276],{},[1793,25628,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,25630,15548],{},[1790,25632,1844],{},[1793,25634,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,25636,15496],{},[1793,25638,1916],{},[1790,25640,15486],{},[1793,25642,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,25644,25645],{"encoding":240},"P(Y_x = y \\mid e) = \\sum_u P(Y_{M_x}(u) = y) \\cdot P(u \\mid e)",[128,25647,25649,25710,25728,25749,25902,25923,25947],{"className":25648,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25650,25652,25655,25658,25661,25701,25704,25707],{"className":25651},[250],[128,25653],{"className":25654,"style":1870},[254],[128,25656,1844],{"className":25657,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25659,1848],{"className":25660},[1878],[128,25662,25664,25667],{"className":25663},[259],[128,25665,1798],{"className":25666,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,25668,25670],{"className":25669},[2660],[128,25671,25673,25693],{"className":25672},[274,321],[128,25674,25676,25690],{"className":25675},[278],[128,25677,25679],{"className":25678,"style":2670},[282],[128,25680,25681,25684],{"style":3226},[128,25682],{"className":25683,"style":291},[290],[128,25685,25687],{"className":25686},[299,300,301,298],[128,25688,2281],{"className":25689},[259,1815,298],[128,25691,347],{"className":25692},[346],[128,25694,25696],{"className":25695},[278],[128,25697,25699],{"className":25698,"style":2692},[282],[128,25700],{},[128,25702],{"className":25703,"style":1945},[269],[128,25705,2344],{"className":25706},[1949],[128,25708],{"className":25709,"style":1945},[269],[128,25711,25713,25716,25719,25722,25725],{"className":25712},[250],[128,25714],{"className":25715,"style":1870},[254],[128,25717,2276],{"className":25718,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,25720],{"className":25721,"style":1945},[269],[128,25723,1916],{"className":25724},[1949],[128,25726],{"className":25727,"style":1945},[269],[128,25729,25731,25734,25737,25740,25743,25746],{"className":25730},[250],[128,25732],{"className":25733,"style":1870},[254],[128,25735,15486],{"className":25736},[259,1815],[128,25738,1857],{"className":25739},[1894],[128,25741],{"className":25742,"style":1945},[269],[128,25744,2344],{"className":25745},[1949],[128,25747],{"className":25748,"style":1945},[269],[128,25750,25752,25755,25795,25798,25801,25804,25884,25887,25890,25893,25896,25899],{"className":25751},[250],[128,25753],{"className":25754,"style":22318},[254],[128,25756,25758,25761],{"className":25757},[14490],[128,25759,22140],{"className":25760,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,25762,25764],{"className":25763},[2660],[128,25765,25767,25787],{"className":25766},[274,321],[128,25768,25770,25784],{"className":25769},[278],[128,25771,25773],{"className":25772,"style":22337},[282],[128,25774,25775,25778],{"style":14512},[128,25776],{"className":25777,"style":291},[290],[128,25779,25781],{"className":25780},[299,300,301,298],[128,25782,15496],{"className":25783},[259,1815,298],[128,25785,347],{"className":25786},[346],[128,25788,25790],{"className":25789},[278],[128,25791,25793],{"className":25792,"style":14552},[282],[128,25794],{},[128,25796],{"className":25797,"style":1824},[269],[128,25799,1844],{"className":25800,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25802,1848],{"className":25803},[1878],[128,25805,25807,25810],{"className":25806},[259],[128,25808,1798],{"className":25809,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,25811,25813],{"className":25812},[2660],[128,25814,25816,25876],{"className":25815},[274,321],[128,25817,25819,25873],{"className":25818},[278],[128,25820,25822],{"className":25821,"style":9078},[282],[128,25823,25824,25827],{"style":3226},[128,25825],{"className":25826,"style":291},[290],[128,25828,25830],{"className":25829},[299,300,301,298],[128,25831,25833],{"className":25832},[259,298],[128,25834,25836,25839],{"className":25835},[259,298],[128,25837,11188],{"className":25838,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,25840,25842],{"className":25841},[2660],[128,25843,25845,25865],{"className":25844},[274,321],[128,25846,25848,25862],{"className":25847},[278],[128,25849,25851],{"className":25850,"style":20128},[282],[128,25852,25853,25856],{"style":20131},[128,25854],{"className":25855,"style":20135},[290],[128,25857,25859],{"className":25858},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,25860,2281],{"className":25861},[259,1815,298],[128,25863,347],{"className":25864},[346],[128,25866,25868],{"className":25867},[278],[128,25869,25871],{"className":25870,"style":20152},[282],[128,25872],{},[128,25874,347],{"className":25875},[346],[128,25877,25879],{"className":25878},[278],[128,25880,25882],{"className":25881,"style":20164},[282],[128,25883],{},[128,25885,1848],{"className":25886},[1878],[128,25888,15496],{"className":25889},[259,1815],[128,25891,1857],{"className":25892},[1894],[128,25894],{"className":25895,"style":1945},[269],[128,25897,2344],{"className":25898},[1949],[128,25900],{"className":25901,"style":1945},[269],[128,25903,25905,25908,25911,25914,25917,25920],{"className":25904},[250],[128,25906],{"className":25907,"style":1870},[254],[128,25909,2276],{"className":25910,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,25912,1857],{"className":25913},[1894],[128,25915],{"className":25916,"style":1828},[269],[128,25918,15548],{"className":25919},[3375],[128,25921],{"className":25922,"style":1828},[269],[128,25924,25926,25929,25932,25935,25938,25941,25944],{"className":25925},[250],[128,25927],{"className":25928,"style":1870},[254],[128,25930,1844],{"className":25931,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,25933,1848],{"className":25934},[1878],[128,25936,15496],{"className":25937},[259,1815],[128,25939],{"className":25940,"style":1945},[269],[128,25942,1916],{"className":25943},[1949],[128,25945],{"className":25946,"style":1945},[269],[128,25948,25950,25953,25956],{"className":25949},[250],[128,25951],{"className":25952,"style":1870},[254],[128,25954,15486],{"className":25955},[259,1815],[128,25957,1857],{"className":25958},[1894],[64,25960,25961],{},[11,25962,25963,25966,25967,26018,26019,26070,26071,26122,26123,26309,26310,26313,26314,26441,26442,26445,26446,26474,26475,26528,26529,26557,26558,26586,26587,26773,26774,26777,26778,26905],{},[35,25964,25965],{},"例 3.3（反事实的具体计算）"," 设某病人服用了某药（",[128,25968,25970,25988],{"className":25969,"translate":218},[217],[128,25971,25973],{"className":25972},[222],[224,25974,25975],{"xmlns":226},[228,25976,25977,25985],{},[231,25978,25979,25981,25983],{},[1790,25980,364],{},[1793,25982,2344],{},[3152,25984,3154],{},[238,25986,25987],{"encoding":240},"X=1",[128,25989,25991,26009],{"className":25990,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,25992,25994,25997,26000,26003,26006],{"className":25993},[250],[128,25995],{"className":25996,"style":283},[254],[128,25998,364],{"className":25999,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26001],{"className":26002,"style":1945},[269],[128,26004,2344],{"className":26005},[1949],[128,26007],{"className":26008,"style":1945},[269],[128,26010,26012,26015],{"className":26011},[250],[128,26013],{"className":26014,"style":4875},[254],[128,26016,3154],{"className":26017},[259],"）后康复（",[128,26020,26022,26040],{"className":26021,"translate":218},[217],[128,26023,26025],{"className":26024},[222],[224,26026,26027],{"xmlns":226},[228,26028,26029,26037],{},[231,26030,26031,26033,26035],{},[1790,26032,1798],{},[1793,26034,2344],{},[3152,26036,3154],{},[238,26038,26039],{"encoding":240},"Y=1",[128,26041,26043,26061],{"className":26042,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26044,26046,26049,26052,26055,26058],{"className":26045},[250],[128,26047],{"className":26048,"style":283},[254],[128,26050,1798],{"className":26051,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26053],{"className":26054,"style":1945},[269],[128,26056,2344],{"className":26057},[1949],[128,26059],{"className":26060,"style":1945},[269],[128,26062,26064,26067],{"className":26063},[250],[128,26065],{"className":26066,"style":4875},[254],[128,26068,3154],{"className":26069},[259],"）。欲问：「若该病人当初未服药（",[128,26072,26074,26092],{"className":26073,"translate":218},[217],[128,26075,26077],{"className":26076},[222],[224,26078,26079],{"xmlns":226},[228,26080,26081,26089],{},[231,26082,26083,26085,26087],{},[1790,26084,364],{},[1793,26086,2344],{},[3152,26088,4187],{},[238,26090,26091],{"encoding":240},"X=0",[128,26093,26095,26113],{"className":26094,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26096,26098,26101,26104,26107,26110],{"className":26097},[250],[128,26099],{"className":26100,"style":283},[254],[128,26102,364],{"className":26103,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26105],{"className":26106,"style":1945},[269],[128,26108,2344],{"className":26109},[1949],[128,26111],{"className":26112,"style":1945},[269],[128,26114,26116,26119],{"className":26115},[250],[128,26117],{"className":26118,"style":4875},[254],[128,26120,4187],{"className":26121},[259],"），是否仍会康复？」——即求 ",[128,26124,26126,26170],{"className":26125,"translate":218},[217],[128,26127,26129],{"className":26128},[222],[224,26130,26131],{"xmlns":226},[228,26132,26133,26167],{},[231,26134,26135,26137,26139,26145,26147,26149,26151,26153,26155,26157,26159,26161,26163,26165],{},[1790,26136,1844],{},[1793,26138,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,26140,26141,26143],{},[1790,26142,1798],{},[3152,26144,4187],{},[1793,26146,2344],{},[3152,26148,3154],{},[1793,26150,1916],{},[1790,26152,364],{},[1793,26154,2344],{},[3152,26156,3154],{},[1793,26158,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,26160,1798],{},[1793,26162,2344],{},[3152,26164,3154],{},[1793,26166,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,26168,26169],{"encoding":240},"P(Y_0 = 1 \\mid X=1, Y=1)",[128,26171,26173,26234,26252,26270,26297],{"className":26172,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26174,26176,26179,26182,26185,26225,26228,26231],{"className":26175},[250],[128,26177],{"className":26178,"style":1870},[254],[128,26180,1844],{"className":26181,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,26183,1848],{"className":26184},[1878],[128,26186,26188,26191],{"className":26187},[259],[128,26189,1798],{"className":26190,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26192,26194],{"className":26193},[2660],[128,26195,26197,26217],{"className":26196},[274,321],[128,26198,26200,26214],{"className":26199},[278],[128,26201,26203],{"className":26202,"style":3223},[282],[128,26204,26205,26208],{"style":3226},[128,26206],{"className":26207,"style":291},[290],[128,26209,26211],{"className":26210},[299,300,301,298],[128,26212,4187],{"className":26213},[259,298],[128,26215,347],{"className":26216},[346],[128,26218,26220],{"className":26219},[278],[128,26221,26223],{"className":26222,"style":2692},[282],[128,26224],{},[128,26226],{"className":26227,"style":1945},[269],[128,26229,2344],{"className":26230},[1949],[128,26232],{"className":26233,"style":1945},[269],[128,26235,26237,26240,26243,26246,26249],{"className":26236},[250],[128,26238],{"className":26239,"style":1870},[254],[128,26241,3154],{"className":26242},[259],[128,26244],{"className":26245,"style":1945},[269],[128,26247,1916],{"className":26248},[1949],[128,26250],{"className":26251,"style":1945},[269],[128,26253,26255,26258,26261,26264,26267],{"className":26254},[250],[128,26256],{"className":26257,"style":283},[254],[128,26259,364],{"className":26260,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26262],{"className":26263,"style":1945},[269],[128,26265,2344],{"className":26266},[1949],[128,26268],{"className":26269,"style":1945},[269],[128,26271,26273,26276,26279,26282,26285,26288,26291,26294],{"className":26272},[250],[128,26274],{"className":26275,"style":1811},[254],[128,26277,3154],{"className":26278},[259],[128,26280,1795],{"className":26281},[1820],[128,26283],{"className":26284,"style":1824},[269],[128,26286,1798],{"className":26287,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26289],{"className":26290,"style":1945},[269],[128,26292,2344],{"className":26293},[1949],[128,26295],{"className":26296,"style":1945},[269],[128,26298,26300,26303,26306],{"className":26299},[250],[128,26301],{"className":26302,"style":1870},[254],[128,26304,3154],{"className":26305},[259],[128,26307,1857],{"className":26308},[1894],"。这一问题",[35,26311,26312],{},"不能","简单地用干预分布 ",[128,26315,26317,26357],{"className":26316,"translate":218},[217],[128,26318,26320],{"className":26319},[222],[224,26321,26322],{"xmlns":226},[228,26323,26324,26354],{},[231,26325,26326,26328,26330,26332,26334,26336,26338,26340,26342,26344,26346,26348,26350,26352],{},[1790,26327,1844],{},[1793,26329,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,26331,1798],{},[1793,26333,2344],{},[3152,26335,3154],{},[1793,26337,1916],{},[1790,26339,2438],{},[1790,26341,2441],{},[1793,26343,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,26345,364],{},[1793,26347,2344],{},[3152,26349,4187],{},[1793,26351,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,26353,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,26355,26356],{"encoding":240},"P(Y=1 \\mid do(X=0))",[128,26358,26360,26384,26402,26429],{"className":26359,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26361,26363,26366,26369,26372,26375,26378,26381],{"className":26362},[250],[128,26364],{"className":26365,"style":1870},[254],[128,26367,1844],{"className":26368,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,26370,1848],{"className":26371},[1878],[128,26373,1798],{"className":26374,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26376],{"className":26377,"style":1945},[269],[128,26379,2344],{"className":26380},[1949],[128,26382],{"className":26383,"style":1945},[269],[128,26385,26387,26390,26393,26396,26399],{"className":26386},[250],[128,26388],{"className":26389,"style":1870},[254],[128,26391,3154],{"className":26392},[259],[128,26394],{"className":26395,"style":1945},[269],[128,26397,1916],{"className":26398},[1949],[128,26400],{"className":26401,"style":1945},[269],[128,26403,26405,26408,26411,26414,26417,26420,26423,26426],{"className":26404},[250],[128,26406],{"className":26407,"style":1870},[254],[128,26409,2438],{"className":26410},[259,1815],[128,26412,2441],{"className":26413},[259,1815],[128,26415,1848],{"className":26416},[1878],[128,26418,364],{"className":26419,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26421],{"className":26422,"style":1945},[269],[128,26424,2344],{"className":26425},[1949],[128,26427],{"className":26428,"style":1945},[269],[128,26430,26432,26435,26438],{"className":26431},[250],[128,26433],{"className":26434,"style":1870},[254],[128,26436,4187],{"className":26437},[259],[128,26439,2501],{"className":26440},[1894],"（总体中未服药者的康复率）来回答，因为后者描述的是「随机抽取一个未服药个体」的康复概率，而反事实问题问的是",[35,26443,26444],{},"这同一个","已知服药后康复的病人。按照三步算法：首先根据「该病人服药后康复」这一证据，对可能导致其康复的外生因素（如自身免疫力 ",[128,26447,26449,26462],{"className":26448,"translate":218},[217],[128,26450,26452],{"className":26451},[222],[224,26453,26454],{"xmlns":226},[228,26455,26456,26460],{},[231,26457,26458],{},[1790,26459,4184],{},[238,26461,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,26463,26465],{"className":26464,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26466,26468,26471],{"className":26467},[250],[128,26469],{"className":26470,"style":283},[254],[128,26472,4184],{"className":26473,"style":4296},[259,1815],"）的分布进行后验更新——服药后康复的人群中，「体质本身较好、即使不服药也可能康复」的后验概率会高于总体先验；随后在 ",[128,26476,26478,26498],{"className":26477,"translate":218},[217],[128,26479,26481],{"className":26480},[222],[224,26482,26483],{"xmlns":226},[228,26484,26485,26495],{},[231,26486,26487,26489,26491,26493],{},[1790,26488,364],{},[1793,26490,10582],{},[1793,26492,2344],{},[3152,26494,4187],{},[238,26496,26497],{"encoding":240},"X:=0",[128,26499,26501,26519],{"className":26500,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26502,26504,26507,26510,26513,26516],{"className":26503},[250],[128,26505],{"className":26506,"style":283},[254],[128,26508,364],{"className":26509,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26511],{"className":26512,"style":1945},[269],[128,26514,10618],{"className":26515},[1949],[128,26517],{"className":26518,"style":1945},[269],[128,26520,26522,26525],{"className":26521},[250],[128,26523],{"className":26524,"style":4875},[254],[128,26526,4187],{"className":26527},[259]," 的子模型中，用这一更新后的 ",[128,26530,26532,26545],{"className":26531,"translate":218},[217],[128,26533,26535],{"className":26534},[222],[224,26536,26537],{"xmlns":226},[228,26538,26539,26543],{},[231,26540,26541],{},[1790,26542,4184],{},[238,26544,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,26546,26548],{"className":26547,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26549,26551,26554],{"className":26550},[250],[128,26552],{"className":26553,"style":283},[254],[128,26555,4184],{"className":26556,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 分布重新计算 ",[128,26559,26561,26574],{"className":26560,"translate":218},[217],[128,26562,26564],{"className":26563},[222],[224,26565,26566],{"xmlns":226},[228,26567,26568,26572],{},[231,26569,26570],{},[1790,26571,1798],{},[238,26573,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,26575,26577],{"className":26576,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26578,26580,26583],{"className":26579},[250],[128,26581],{"className":26582,"style":283},[254],[128,26584,1798],{"className":26585,"style":1828},[259,1815],"。这解释了为什么反事实概率 ",[128,26588,26590,26634],{"className":26589,"translate":218},[217],[128,26591,26593],{"className":26592},[222],[224,26594,26595],{"xmlns":226},[228,26596,26597,26631],{},[231,26598,26599,26601,26603,26609,26611,26613,26615,26617,26619,26621,26623,26625,26627,26629],{},[1790,26600,1844],{},[1793,26602,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,26604,26605,26607],{},[1790,26606,1798],{},[3152,26608,4187],{},[1793,26610,2344],{},[3152,26612,3154],{},[1793,26614,1916],{},[1790,26616,364],{},[1793,26618,2344],{},[3152,26620,3154],{},[1793,26622,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,26624,1798],{},[1793,26626,2344],{},[3152,26628,3154],{},[1793,26630,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,26632,26633],{"encoding":240},"P(Y_0=1\\mid X=1,Y=1)",[128,26635,26637,26698,26716,26734,26761],{"className":26636,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26638,26640,26643,26646,26649,26689,26692,26695],{"className":26639},[250],[128,26641],{"className":26642,"style":1870},[254],[128,26644,1844],{"className":26645,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,26647,1848],{"className":26648},[1878],[128,26650,26652,26655],{"className":26651},[259],[128,26653,1798],{"className":26654,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26656,26658],{"className":26657},[2660],[128,26659,26661,26681],{"className":26660},[274,321],[128,26662,26664,26678],{"className":26663},[278],[128,26665,26667],{"className":26666,"style":3223},[282],[128,26668,26669,26672],{"style":3226},[128,26670],{"className":26671,"style":291},[290],[128,26673,26675],{"className":26674},[299,300,301,298],[128,26676,4187],{"className":26677},[259,298],[128,26679,347],{"className":26680},[346],[128,26682,26684],{"className":26683},[278],[128,26685,26687],{"className":26686,"style":2692},[282],[128,26688],{},[128,26690],{"className":26691,"style":1945},[269],[128,26693,2344],{"className":26694},[1949],[128,26696],{"className":26697,"style":1945},[269],[128,26699,26701,26704,26707,26710,26713],{"className":26700},[250],[128,26702],{"className":26703,"style":1870},[254],[128,26705,3154],{"className":26706},[259],[128,26708],{"className":26709,"style":1945},[269],[128,26711,1916],{"className":26712},[1949],[128,26714],{"className":26715,"style":1945},[269],[128,26717,26719,26722,26725,26728,26731],{"className":26718},[250],[128,26720],{"className":26721,"style":283},[254],[128,26723,364],{"className":26724,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26726],{"className":26727,"style":1945},[269],[128,26729,2344],{"className":26730},[1949],[128,26732],{"className":26733,"style":1945},[269],[128,26735,26737,26740,26743,26746,26749,26752,26755,26758],{"className":26736},[250],[128,26738],{"className":26739,"style":1811},[254],[128,26741,3154],{"className":26742},[259],[128,26744,1795],{"className":26745},[1820],[128,26747],{"className":26748,"style":1824},[269],[128,26750,1798],{"className":26751,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26753],{"className":26754,"style":1945},[269],[128,26756,2344],{"className":26757},[1949],[128,26759],{"className":26760,"style":1945},[269],[128,26762,26764,26767,26770],{"className":26763},[250],[128,26765],{"className":26766,"style":1870},[254],[128,26768,3154],{"className":26769},[259],[128,26771,1857],{"className":26772},[1894]," 一般会",[35,26775,26776],{},"高于","总体干预概率 ",[128,26779,26781,26821],{"className":26780,"translate":218},[217],[128,26782,26784],{"className":26783},[222],[224,26785,26786],{"xmlns":226},[228,26787,26788,26818],{},[231,26789,26790,26792,26794,26796,26798,26800,26802,26804,26806,26808,26810,26812,26814,26816],{},[1790,26791,1844],{},[1793,26793,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,26795,1798],{},[1793,26797,2344],{},[3152,26799,3154],{},[1793,26801,1916],{},[1790,26803,2438],{},[1790,26805,2441],{},[1793,26807,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,26809,364],{},[1793,26811,2344],{},[3152,26813,4187],{},[1793,26815,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,26817,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,26819,26820],{"encoding":240},"P(Y=1\\mid do(X=0))",[128,26822,26824,26848,26866,26893],{"className":26823,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26825,26827,26830,26833,26836,26839,26842,26845],{"className":26826},[250],[128,26828],{"className":26829,"style":1870},[254],[128,26831,1844],{"className":26832,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,26834,1848],{"className":26835},[1878],[128,26837,1798],{"className":26838,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,26840],{"className":26841,"style":1945},[269],[128,26843,2344],{"className":26844},[1949],[128,26846],{"className":26847,"style":1945},[269],[128,26849,26851,26854,26857,26860,26863],{"className":26850},[250],[128,26852],{"className":26853,"style":1870},[254],[128,26855,3154],{"className":26856},[259],[128,26858],{"className":26859,"style":1945},[269],[128,26861,1916],{"className":26862},[1949],[128,26864],{"className":26865,"style":1945},[269],[128,26867,26869,26872,26875,26878,26881,26884,26887,26890],{"className":26868},[250],[128,26870],{"className":26871,"style":1870},[254],[128,26873,2438],{"className":26874},[259,1815],[128,26876,2441],{"className":26877},[259,1815],[128,26879,1848],{"className":26880},[1878],[128,26882,364],{"className":26883,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,26885],{"className":26886,"style":1945},[269],[128,26888,2344],{"className":26889},[1949],[128,26891],{"className":26892,"style":1945},[269],[128,26894,26896,26899,26902],{"className":26895},[250],[128,26897],{"className":26898,"style":1870},[254],[128,26900,4187],{"className":26901},[259],[128,26903,2501],{"className":26904},[1894],"——因为前者的条件化过程已经通过溯因步骤「筛选」出了体质更好的子群体。这一细微但本质的差别，是反事实推理（第三层）无法被干预计算（第二层）替代的直接例证，也是「个体化处理效应（Individual Treatment Effect）」这一概念在医学与政策评估中难以精确估计、却又极具价值的理论根源。",[11,26907,26908,26911,26912,26915,26916,26944,26945,26988,26989,2173,27017,27060],{},[35,26909,26910],{},"一个必须说清楚的边界：反事实的可识别性。"," 上述三步算法成立的前提是 SCM ",[35,26913,26914],{},"完全已知","——",[128,26917,26919,26932],{"className":26918,"translate":218},[217],[128,26920,26922],{"className":26921},[222],[224,26923,26924],{"xmlns":226},[228,26925,26926,26930],{},[231,26927,26928],{},[1790,26929,11203],{},[238,26931,11203],{"encoding":240},[128,26933,26935],{"className":26934,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26936,26938,26941],{"className":26937},[250],[128,26939],{"className":26940,"style":283},[254],[128,26942,11203],{"className":26943,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 中的函数形式与 ",[128,26946,26948,26967],{"className":26947,"translate":218},[217],[128,26949,26951],{"className":26950},[222],[224,26952,26953],{"xmlns":226},[228,26954,26955,26965],{},[231,26956,26957,26959,26961,26963],{},[1790,26958,1844],{},[1793,26960,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,26962,4184],{},[1793,26964,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,26966,12724],{"encoding":240},[128,26968,26970],{"className":26969,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,26971,26973,26976,26979,26982,26985],{"className":26972},[250],[128,26974],{"className":26975,"style":1870},[254],[128,26977,1844],{"className":26978,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,26980,1848],{"className":26981},[1878],[128,26983,4184],{"className":26984,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,26986,1857],{"className":26987},[1894]," 的分布都已指定。而在现实中我们通常只有观测数据，",[128,26990,26992,27005],{"className":26991,"translate":218},[217],[128,26993,26995],{"className":26994},[222],[224,26996,26997],{"xmlns":226},[228,26998,26999,27003],{},[231,27000,27001],{},[1790,27002,11203],{},[238,27004,11203],{"encoding":240},[128,27006,27008],{"className":27007,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27009,27011,27014],{"className":27010},[250],[128,27012],{"className":27013,"style":283},[254],[128,27015,11203],{"className":27016,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,27018,27020,27039],{"className":27019,"translate":218},[217],[128,27021,27023],{"className":27022},[222],[224,27024,27025],{"xmlns":226},[228,27026,27027,27037],{},[231,27028,27029,27031,27033,27035],{},[1790,27030,1844],{},[1793,27032,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27034,4184],{},[1793,27036,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,27038,12724],{"encoding":240},[128,27040,27042],{"className":27041,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27043,27045,27048,27051,27054,27057],{"className":27044},[250],[128,27046],{"className":27047,"style":1870},[254],[128,27049,1844],{"className":27050,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,27052,1848],{"className":27053},[1878],[128,27055,4184],{"className":27056,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,27058,1857],{"className":27059},[1894]," 都是未知的。这一差别不是技术细节，而是第三层与第二层之间的一条硬边界：",[2249,27062,27063,27153],{},[2252,27064,27065,27066,27148,27149,27152],{},"第二层的量 ",[128,27067,27069,27100],{"className":27068,"translate":218},[217],[128,27070,27072],{"className":27071},[222],[224,27073,27074],{"xmlns":226},[228,27075,27076,27098],{},[231,27077,27078,27080,27082,27084,27086,27088,27090,27092,27094,27096],{},[1790,27079,1844],{},[1793,27081,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27083,2276],{},[1793,27085,1916],{},[1790,27087,2438],{},[1790,27089,2441],{},[1793,27091,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27093,2281],{},[1793,27095,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,27097,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,27099,2452],{"encoding":240},[128,27101,27103,27127],{"className":27102,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27104,27106,27109,27112,27115,27118,27121,27124],{"className":27105},[250],[128,27107],{"className":27108,"style":1870},[254],[128,27110,1844],{"className":27111,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,27113,1848],{"className":27114},[1878],[128,27116,2276],{"className":27117,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,27119],{"className":27120,"style":1945},[269],[128,27122,1916],{"className":27123},[1949],[128,27125],{"className":27126,"style":1945},[269],[128,27128,27130,27133,27136,27139,27142,27145],{"className":27129},[250],[128,27131],{"className":27132,"style":1870},[254],[128,27134,2438],{"className":27135},[259,1815],[128,27137,2441],{"className":27138},[259,1815],[128,27140,1848],{"className":27141},[1878],[128,27143,2281],{"className":27144},[259,1815],[128,27146,2501],{"className":27147},[1894]," 在满足后门准则或前门准则（见 3.5 节）时，",[35,27150,27151],{},"可以","仅用观测分布表达出来，因而能够由数据估计；",[2252,27154,27155,27156,27285,27286,27317,27318,27346,27347,27375,27376,893],{},"第三层的量 ",[128,27157,27159,27191],{"className":27158,"translate":218},[217],[128,27160,27162],{"className":27161},[222],[224,27163,27164],{"xmlns":226},[228,27165,27166,27188],{},[231,27167,27168,27170,27172,27178,27180,27182,27184,27186],{},[1790,27169,1844],{},[1793,27171,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,27173,27174,27176],{},[1790,27175,1798],{},[1790,27177,2281],{},[1793,27179,2344],{},[1790,27181,2276],{},[1793,27183,1916],{},[1790,27185,15486],{},[1793,27187,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,27189,27190],{"encoding":240},"P(Y_x = y \\mid e)",[128,27192,27194,27255,27273],{"className":27193,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27195,27197,27200,27203,27206,27246,27249,27252],{"className":27196},[250],[128,27198],{"className":27199,"style":1870},[254],[128,27201,1844],{"className":27202,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,27204,1848],{"className":27205},[1878],[128,27207,27209,27212],{"className":27208},[259],[128,27210,1798],{"className":27211,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,27213,27215],{"className":27214},[2660],[128,27216,27218,27238],{"className":27217},[274,321],[128,27219,27221,27235],{"className":27220},[278],[128,27222,27224],{"className":27223,"style":2670},[282],[128,27225,27226,27229],{"style":3226},[128,27227],{"className":27228,"style":291},[290],[128,27230,27232],{"className":27231},[299,300,301,298],[128,27233,2281],{"className":27234},[259,1815,298],[128,27236,347],{"className":27237},[346],[128,27239,27241],{"className":27240},[278],[128,27242,27244],{"className":27243,"style":2692},[282],[128,27245],{},[128,27247],{"className":27248,"style":1945},[269],[128,27250,2344],{"className":27251},[1949],[128,27253],{"className":27254,"style":1945},[269],[128,27256,27258,27261,27264,27267,27270],{"className":27257},[250],[128,27259],{"className":27260,"style":1870},[254],[128,27262,2276],{"className":27263,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,27265],{"className":27266,"style":1945},[269],[128,27268,1916],{"className":27269},[1949],[128,27271],{"className":27272,"style":1945},[269],[128,27274,27276,27279,27282],{"className":27275},[250],[128,27277],{"className":27278,"style":1870},[254],[128,27280,15486],{"className":27281},[259,1815],[128,27283,1857],{"className":27284},[1894]," 则要求「同一个体在另一个可能世界中的取值」，也就是要求",[35,27287,27288,27289],{},"同一个 ",[128,27290,27292,27305],{"className":27291,"translate":218},[217],[128,27293,27295],{"className":27294},[222],[224,27296,27297],{"xmlns":226},[228,27298,27299,27303],{},[231,27300,27301],{},[1790,27302,15496],{},[238,27304,15496],{"encoding":240},[128,27306,27308],{"className":27307,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27309,27311,27314],{"className":27310},[250],[128,27312],{"className":27313,"style":2377},[254],[128,27315,15496],{"className":27316},[259,1815],"，而 ",[128,27319,27321,27334],{"className":27320,"translate":218},[217],[128,27322,27324],{"className":27323},[222],[224,27325,27326],{"xmlns":226},[228,27327,27328,27332],{},[231,27329,27330],{},[1790,27331,15496],{},[238,27333,15496],{"encoding":240},[128,27335,27337],{"className":27336,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27338,27340,27343],{"className":27339},[250],[128,27341],{"className":27342,"style":2377},[254],[128,27344,15496],{"className":27345},[259,1815]," 本身不可观测。观测数据只能给出内生变量 ",[128,27348,27350,27363],{"className":27349,"translate":218},[217],[128,27351,27353],{"className":27352},[222],[224,27354,27355],{"xmlns":226},[228,27356,27357,27361],{},[231,27358,27359],{},[1790,27360,3071],{},[238,27362,3071],{"encoding":240},[128,27364,27366],{"className":27365,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27367,27369,27372],{"className":27368},[250],[128,27370],{"className":27371,"style":283},[254],[128,27373,3071],{"className":27374,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的联合分布，一般无法唯一反解出 ",[128,27377,27379,27403],{"className":27378,"translate":218},[217],[128,27380,27382],{"className":27381},[222],[224,27383,27384],{"xmlns":226},[228,27385,27386,27400],{},[231,27387,27388,27390,27392,27394,27396,27398],{},[1790,27389,1844],{},[1793,27391,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27393,15496],{},[1793,27395,1916],{},[1790,27397,15486],{},[1793,27399,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,27401,27402],{"encoding":240},"P(u\\mid e)",[128,27404,27406,27430],{"className":27405,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27407,27409,27412,27415,27418,27421,27424,27427],{"className":27408},[250],[128,27410],{"className":27411,"style":1870},[254],[128,27413,1844],{"className":27414,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,27416,1848],{"className":27417},[1878],[128,27419,15496],{"className":27420},[259,1815],[128,27422],{"className":27423,"style":1945},[269],[128,27425,1916],{"className":27426},[1949],[128,27428],{"className":27429,"style":1945},[269],[128,27431,27433,27436,27439],{"className":27432},[250],[128,27434],{"className":27435,"style":1870},[254],[128,27437,15486],{"className":27438},[259,1815],[128,27440,1857],{"className":27441},[1894],[11,27443,27444,27445],{},"由此可以得到一个一般性判断：",[35,27446,27447],{},"反事实量在一般情形下不可从观测数据识别，只有在 SCM 被完整指定、或引入足够强的额外假设时才可计算。",[11,27449,27450,27451,27530,27531,27619,27620,2553,27648,27676,27677,27679,27680,27708],{},"一个极端而富有启发的例子是线性 SCM：此时 ",[128,27452,27454,27478],{"className":27453,"translate":218},[217],[128,27455,27457],{"className":27456},[222],[224,27458,27459],{"xmlns":226},[228,27460,27461,27475],{},[231,27462,27463,27465,27467,27469,27471,27473],{},[1790,27464,3071],{},[1793,27466,2344],{},[1790,27468,15483],{},[1790,27470,3071],{},[1793,27472,4620],{},[1790,27474,4184],{},[238,27476,27477],{"encoding":240},"V = BV + U",[128,27479,27481,27499,27521],{"className":27480,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27482,27484,27487,27490,27493,27496],{"className":27483},[250],[128,27485],{"className":27486,"style":283},[254],[128,27488,3071],{"className":27489,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,27491],{"className":27492,"style":1945},[269],[128,27494,2344],{"className":27495},[1949],[128,27497],{"className":27498,"style":1945},[269],[128,27500,27502,27505,27509,27512,27515,27518],{"className":27501},[250],[128,27503],{"className":27504,"style":3365},[254],[128,27506,15483],{"className":27507,"style":27508},[259,1815],"margin-right:0.0502em;",[128,27510,3071],{"className":27511,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,27513],{"className":27514,"style":1828},[269],[128,27516,4620],{"className":27517},[3375],[128,27519],{"className":27520,"style":1828},[269],[128,27522,27524,27527],{"className":27523},[250],[128,27525],{"className":27526,"style":283},[254],[128,27528,4184],{"className":27529,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 蕴含 ",[128,27532,27534,27562],{"className":27533,"translate":218},[217],[128,27535,27537],{"className":27536},[222],[224,27538,27539],{"xmlns":226},[228,27540,27541,27559],{},[231,27542,27543,27545,27547,27549,27551,27553,27555,27557],{},[1790,27544,4184],{},[1793,27546,2344],{},[1793,27548,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27550,18392],{},[1793,27552,15953],{},[1790,27554,15483],{},[1793,27556,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,27558,3071],{},[238,27560,27561],{"encoding":240},"U = (I-B)V",[128,27563,27565,27583,27604],{"className":27564,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27566,27568,27571,27574,27577,27580],{"className":27567},[250],[128,27569],{"className":27570,"style":283},[254],[128,27572,4184],{"className":27573,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,27575],{"className":27576,"style":1945},[269],[128,27578,2344],{"className":27579},[1949],[128,27581],{"className":27582,"style":1945},[269],[128,27584,27586,27589,27592,27595,27598,27601],{"className":27585},[250],[128,27587],{"className":27588,"style":1870},[254],[128,27590,1848],{"className":27591},[1878],[128,27593,18392],{"className":27594,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,27596],{"className":27597,"style":1828},[269],[128,27599,15953],{"className":27600},[3375],[128,27602],{"className":27603,"style":1828},[269],[128,27605,27607,27610,27613,27616],{"className":27606},[250],[128,27608],{"className":27609,"style":1870},[254],[128,27611,15483],{"className":27612,"style":27508},[259,1815],[128,27614,1857],{"className":27615},[1894],[128,27617,3071],{"className":27618,"style":1828},[259,1815],"，于是给定任一观测到的 ",[128,27621,27623,27636],{"className":27622,"translate":218},[217],[128,27624,27626],{"className":27625},[222],[224,27627,27628],{"xmlns":226},[228,27629,27630,27634],{},[231,27631,27632],{},[1790,27633,14256],{},[238,27635,14256],{"encoding":240},[128,27637,27639],{"className":27638,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27640,27642,27645],{"className":27641},[250],[128,27643],{"className":27644,"style":2377},[254],[128,27646,14256],{"className":27647,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,27649,27651,27664],{"className":27650,"translate":218},[217],[128,27652,27654],{"className":27653},[222],[224,27655,27656],{"xmlns":226},[228,27657,27658,27662],{},[231,27659,27660],{},[1790,27661,15496],{},[238,27663,15496],{"encoding":240},[128,27665,27667],{"className":27666,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27668,27670,27673],{"className":27669},[250],[128,27671],{"className":27672,"style":2377},[254],[128,27674,15496],{"className":27675},[259,1815]," 被",[35,27678,17703],{},"，反事实分布退化为一个点质量，个体处理效应似乎唾手可得。但这一「可得」完全是线性与可加假设的产物，而非数据所提供的信息——一旦允许非线性或非高斯，「同一个 ",[128,27681,27683,27696],{"className":27682,"translate":218},[217],[128,27684,27686],{"className":27685},[222],[224,27687,27688],{"xmlns":226},[228,27689,27690,27694],{},[231,27691,27692],{},[1790,27693,15496],{},[238,27695,15496],{"encoding":240},[128,27697,27699],{"className":27698,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27700,27702,27705],{"className":27701},[250],[128,27703],{"className":27704,"style":2377},[254],[128,27706,15496],{"className":27707},[259,1815],"」便重新变得不可复原。这也正是经典 SEM 传统（见 4.2 节）能够讨论「个体效应」、而现代因果推断对此极为谨慎的原因所在。",[11,27710,27711],{},"因此第三层虽然在形式上已被定义清楚，其实践可达性却最弱。本文余下部分把重点放在第二层的可识别性上，这并非理论上的偏好，而是数据所能支撑的边界所在。",[3038,27713,27715],{"id":27714},"_34-中介分析从总效应到直接效应与间接效应","3.4 中介分析：从总效应到直接效应与间接效应",[11,27717,27718,27719,27791],{},"第一部分曾用链结构 ",[128,27720,27722,27743],{"className":27721,"translate":218},[217],[128,27723,27725],{"className":27724},[222],[224,27726,27727],{"xmlns":226},[228,27728,27729,27741],{},[231,27730,27731,27733,27735,27737,27739],{},[1790,27732,364],{},[1793,27734,3573],{},[1790,27736,5935],{},[1793,27738,3573],{},[1790,27740,1798],{},[238,27742,6080],{"encoding":240},[128,27744,27746,27764,27782],{"className":27745,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27747,27749,27752,27755,27758,27761],{"className":27748},[250],[128,27750],{"className":27751,"style":283},[254],[128,27753,364],{"className":27754,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,27756],{"className":27757,"style":1945},[269],[128,27759,3573],{"className":27760},[1949],[128,27762],{"className":27763,"style":1945},[269],[128,27765,27767,27770,27773,27776,27779],{"className":27766},[250],[128,27768],{"className":27769,"style":283},[254],[128,27771,5935],{"className":27772,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,27774],{"className":27775,"style":1945},[269],[128,27777,3573],{"className":27778},[1949],[128,27780],{"className":27781,"style":1945},[269],[128,27783,27785,27788],{"className":27784},[250],[128,27786],{"className":27787,"style":283},[254],[128,27789,1798],{"className":27790,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 说明「控制中介会切断全部影响」。当时给出的只是定性结论，现在有了 do-算子与反事实的语言，可以把「影响如何被分解」这件事精确化。",[11,27793,27794,27795,27823,27824,27852,27853,27881,27882,6417,27910,27938,27939,28012,28013,893],{},"设 ",[128,27796,27798,27811],{"className":27797,"translate":218},[217],[128,27799,27801],{"className":27800},[222],[224,27802,27803],{"xmlns":226},[228,27804,27805,27809],{},[231,27806,27807],{},[1790,27808,364],{},[238,27810,364],{"encoding":240},[128,27812,27814],{"className":27813,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27815,27817,27820],{"className":27816},[250],[128,27818],{"className":27819,"style":283},[254],[128,27821,364],{"className":27822,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 为处理变量，",[128,27825,27827,27840],{"className":27826,"translate":218},[217],[128,27828,27830],{"className":27829},[222],[224,27831,27832],{"xmlns":226},[228,27833,27834,27838],{},[231,27835,27836],{},[1790,27837,1798],{},[238,27839,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,27841,27843],{"className":27842,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27844,27846,27849],{"className":27845},[250],[128,27847],{"className":27848,"style":283},[254],[128,27850,1798],{"className":27851,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 为结果，",[128,27854,27856,27869],{"className":27855,"translate":218},[217],[128,27857,27859],{"className":27858},[222],[224,27860,27861],{"xmlns":226},[228,27862,27863,27867],{},[231,27864,27865],{},[1790,27866,11188],{},[238,27868,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,27870,27872],{"className":27871,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27873,27875,27878],{"className":27874},[250],[128,27876],{"className":27877,"style":283},[254],[128,27879,11188],{"className":27880,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 为介于二者之间的中介变量。",[128,27883,27885,27898],{"className":27884,"translate":218},[217],[128,27886,27888],{"className":27887},[222],[224,27889,27890],{"xmlns":226},[228,27891,27892,27896],{},[231,27893,27894],{},[1790,27895,364],{},[238,27897,364],{"encoding":240},[128,27899,27901],{"className":27900,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27902,27904,27907],{"className":27903},[250],[128,27905],{"className":27906,"style":283},[254],[128,27908,364],{"className":27909,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,27911,27913,27926],{"className":27912,"translate":218},[217],[128,27914,27916],{"className":27915},[222],[224,27917,27918],{"xmlns":226},[228,27919,27920,27924],{},[231,27921,27922],{},[1790,27923,1798],{},[238,27925,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,27927,27929],{"className":27928,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27930,27932,27935],{"className":27931},[250],[128,27933],{"className":27934,"style":283},[254],[128,27936,1798],{"className":27937,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的作用只可能经过两条通道：中介通道 ",[128,27940,27942,27964],{"className":27941,"translate":218},[217],[128,27943,27945],{"className":27944},[222],[224,27946,27947],{"xmlns":226},[228,27948,27949,27961],{},[231,27950,27951,27953,27955,27957,27959],{},[1790,27952,364],{},[1793,27954,3573],{},[1790,27956,11188],{},[1793,27958,3573],{},[1790,27960,1798],{},[238,27962,27963],{"encoding":240},"X \\to M \\to Y",[128,27965,27967,27985,28003],{"className":27966,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,27968,27970,27973,27976,27979,27982],{"className":27969},[250],[128,27971],{"className":27972,"style":283},[254],[128,27974,364],{"className":27975,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,27977],{"className":27978,"style":1945},[269],[128,27980,3573],{"className":27981},[1949],[128,27983],{"className":27984,"style":1945},[269],[128,27986,27988,27991,27994,27997,28000],{"className":27987},[250],[128,27989],{"className":27990,"style":283},[254],[128,27992,11188],{"className":27993,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,27995],{"className":27996,"style":1945},[269],[128,27998,3573],{"className":27999},[1949],[128,28001],{"className":28002,"style":1945},[269],[128,28004,28006,28009],{"className":28005},[250],[128,28007],{"className":28008,"style":283},[254],[128,28010,1798],{"className":28011,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 与直接通道 ",[128,28014,28016,28033],{"className":28015,"translate":218},[217],[128,28017,28019],{"className":28018},[222],[224,28020,28021],{"xmlns":226},[228,28022,28023,28031],{},[231,28024,28025,28027,28029],{},[1790,28026,364],{},[1793,28028,3573],{},[1790,28030,1798],{},[238,28032,10756],{"encoding":240},[128,28034,28036,28054],{"className":28035,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28037,28039,28042,28045,28048,28051],{"className":28038},[250],[128,28040],{"className":28041,"style":283},[254],[128,28043,364],{"className":28044,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,28046],{"className":28047,"style":1945},[269],[128,28049,3573],{"className":28050},[1949],[128,28052],{"className":28053,"style":1945},[269],[128,28055,28057,28060],{"className":28056},[250],[128,28058],{"className":28059,"style":283},[254],[128,28061,1798],{"className":28062,"style":1828},[259,1815],[118,28064,28067],{"className":28065,"code":28066,"language":260},[1443],"      X ──→ M ──→ Y\n      │           ↑\n      └───────────┘\n",[125,28068,28066],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,28070,28071,28072,28075,28076,19565,28310,28338,28339,28399,28400,28428],{},"先定义",[35,28073,28074],{},"总效应（Average Total Effect）","：\n",[128,28077,28079,28130],{"className":28078,"translate":218},[217],[128,28080,28082],{"className":28081},[222],[224,28083,28084],{"xmlns":226},[228,28085,28086,28127],{},[231,28087,28088,28094,28096,28098,28100,28106,28108,28110,28112,28114,28125],{},[231,28089,28090,28092],{},[1790,28091,313],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,28093,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,28095,2344],{},[1790,28097,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28099,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28101,28102,28104],{},[1790,28103,1798],{},[1790,28105,2281],{},[1793,28107,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28109,15953],{},[1790,28111,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28113,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28115,28116,28118],{},[1790,28117,1798],{},[2614,28119,28120,28122],{},[1790,28121,2281],{},[1793,28123,28124],{},"∗",[1793,28126,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[238,28128,28129],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{TE} = \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x}] - \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x^*}]",[128,28131,28133,28155,28223],{"className":28132,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28134,28136,28139,28146,28149,28152],{"className":28135},[250],[128,28137],{"className":28138,"style":283},[254],[128,28140,28142],{"className":28141},[259],[128,28143,28145],{"className":28144},[259,12100],"TE",[128,28147],{"className":28148,"style":1945},[269],[128,28150,2344],{"className":28151},[1949],[128,28153],{"className":28154,"style":1945},[269],[128,28156,28158,28161,28165,28168,28211,28214,28217,28220],{"className":28157},[250],[128,28159],{"className":28160,"style":1870},[254],[128,28162,342],{"className":28163},[259,28164],"mathbb",[128,28166,15536],{"className":28167},[1878],[128,28169,28171,28174],{"className":28170},[259],[128,28172,1798],{"className":28173,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,28175,28177],{"className":28176},[2660],[128,28178,28180,28203],{"className":28179},[274,321],[128,28181,28183,28200],{"className":28182},[278],[128,28184,28186],{"className":28185,"style":2670},[282],[128,28187,28188,28191],{"style":3226},[128,28189],{"className":28190,"style":291},[290],[128,28192,28194],{"className":28193},[299,300,301,298],[128,28195,28197],{"className":28196},[259,298],[128,28198,2281],{"className":28199},[259,1815,298],[128,28201,347],{"className":28202},[346],[128,28204,28206],{"className":28205},[278],[128,28207,28209],{"className":28208,"style":2692},[282],[128,28210],{},[128,28212,15545],{"className":28213},[1894],[128,28215],{"className":28216,"style":1828},[269],[128,28218,15953],{"className":28219},[3375],[128,28221],{"className":28222,"style":1828},[269],[128,28224,28226,28229,28232,28235,28307],{"className":28225},[250],[128,28227],{"className":28228,"style":1870},[254],[128,28230,342],{"className":28231},[259,28164],[128,28233,15536],{"className":28234},[1878],[128,28236,28238,28241],{"className":28237},[259],[128,28239,1798],{"className":28240,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,28242,28244],{"className":28243},[2660],[128,28245,28247,28299],{"className":28246},[274,321],[128,28248,28250,28296],{"className":28249},[278],[128,28251,28254],{"className":28252,"style":28253},[282],"height:0.2828em;",[128,28255,28256,28259],{"style":3226},[128,28257],{"className":28258,"style":291},[290],[128,28260,28262],{"className":28261},[299,300,301,298],[128,28263,28265],{"className":28264},[259,298],[128,28266,28268,28271],{"className":28267},[259,298],[128,28269,2281],{"className":28270},[259,1815,298],[128,28272,28274],{"className":28273},[2660],[128,28275,28277],{"className":28276},[274],[128,28278,28280],{"className":28279},[278],[128,28281,28284],{"className":28282,"style":28283},[282],"height:0.6183em;",[128,28285,28287,28290],{"style":28286},"top:-2.786em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[128,28288],{"className":28289,"style":20135},[290],[128,28291,28293],{"className":28292},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,28294,28124],{"className":28295},[3375,298],[128,28297,347],{"className":28298},[346],[128,28300,28302],{"className":28301},[278],[128,28303,28305],{"className":28304,"style":2692},[282],[128,28306],{},[128,28308,15545],{"className":28309},[1894],[128,28311,28313,28326],{"className":28312,"translate":218},[217],[128,28314,28316],{"className":28315},[222],[224,28317,28318],{"xmlns":226},[228,28319,28320,28324],{},[231,28321,28322],{},[1790,28323,364],{},[238,28325,364],{"encoding":240},[128,28327,28329],{"className":28328,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28330,28332,28335],{"className":28331},[250],[128,28333],{"className":28334,"style":283},[254],[128,28336,364],{"className":28337,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 从参考水平 ",[128,28340,28342,28360],{"className":28341,"translate":218},[217],[128,28343,28345],{"className":28344},[222],[224,28346,28347],{"xmlns":226},[228,28348,28349,28357],{},[231,28350,28351],{},[2614,28352,28353,28355],{},[1790,28354,2281],{},[1793,28356,28124],{},[238,28358,28359],{"encoding":240},"x^*",[128,28361,28363],{"className":28362,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28364,28366,28370],{"className":28365},[250],[128,28367],{"className":28368,"style":28369},[254],"height:0.6887em;",[128,28371,28373,28376],{"className":28372},[259],[128,28374,2281],{"className":28375},[259,1815],[128,28377,28379],{"className":28378},[2660],[128,28380,28382],{"className":28381},[274],[128,28383,28385],{"className":28384},[278],[128,28386,28388],{"className":28387,"style":28369},[282],[128,28389,28390,28393],{"style":2732},[128,28391],{"className":28392,"style":291},[290],[128,28394,28396],{"className":28395},[299,300,301,298],[128,28397,28124],{"className":28398},[3375,298]," 改为 ",[128,28401,28403,28416],{"className":28402,"translate":218},[217],[128,28404,28406],{"className":28405},[222],[224,28407,28408],{"xmlns":226},[228,28409,28410,28414],{},[231,28411,28412],{},[1790,28413,2281],{},[238,28415,2281],{"encoding":240},[128,28417,28419],{"className":28418,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28420,28422,28425],{"className":28421},[250],[128,28423],{"className":28424,"style":2377},[254],[128,28426,2281],{"className":28427},[259,1815]," 时结果期望的净变化。为区分上述两条通道各自的贡献，Pearl 引入两个第三层的量：",[64,28430,28431],{},[11,28432,28433,28436,12318,29148,29305,29306,29334,29335,29363,29364,29392,29393,29512],{},[35,28434,28435],{},"定义 3.5（自然直接效应与自然间接效应）",[128,28437,28439,28589],{"className":28438,"translate":218},[217],[128,28440,28442],{"className":28441},[222],[224,28443,28444],{"xmlns":226},[228,28445,28446,28586],{},[231,28447,28448,28458,28460,28462,28464,28470,28472,28474,28476,28478,28498,28500,28502,28504,28506,28516,28518,28520,28522,28530,28532,28534,28536,28542,28544,28546,28548,28550,28556,28558,28560,28562,28564,28584],{},[231,28449,28450,28453,28456],{},[1790,28451,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},"N",[1790,28454,28455],{"mathvariant":2620},"D",[1790,28457,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,28459,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,28461,2281],{},[1793,28463,1795],{"separator":246},[2614,28465,28466,28468],{},[1790,28467,2281],{},[1793,28469,28124],{},[1793,28471,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28473,2344],{},[1790,28475,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28477,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28479,28480,28482],{},[1790,28481,1798],{},[231,28483,28484,28486,28488],{},[1790,28485,2281],{},[1793,28487,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,28489,28490,28492],{},[1790,28491,11188],{},[2614,28493,28494,28496],{},[1790,28495,2281],{},[1793,28497,28124],{},[1793,28499,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28501,15953],{},[1790,28503,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28505,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28507,28508,28510],{},[1790,28509,1798],{},[2614,28511,28512,28514],{},[1790,28513,2281],{},[1793,28515,28124],{},[1793,28517,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28519,1795],{"separator":246},[269,28521],{"width":11953},[231,28523,28524,28526,28528],{},[1790,28525,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,28527,18392],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,28529,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,28531,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,28533,2281],{},[1793,28535,1795],{"separator":246},[2614,28537,28538,28540],{},[1790,28539,2281],{},[1793,28541,28124],{},[1793,28543,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28545,2344],{},[1790,28547,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28549,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28551,28552,28554],{},[1790,28553,1798],{},[1790,28555,2281],{},[1793,28557,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,28559,15953],{},[1790,28561,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,28563,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,28565,28566,28568],{},[1790,28567,1798],{},[231,28569,28570,28572,28574],{},[1790,28571,2281],{},[1793,28573,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,28575,28576,28578],{},[1790,28577,11188],{},[2614,28579,28580,28582],{},[1790,28581,2281],{},[1793,28583,28124],{},[1793,28585,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[238,28587,28588],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{NDE}(x, x^*) = \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x, M_{x^*}}] - \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x^*}], \\qquad \\mathrm{NIE}(x, x^*) = \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x}] - \\mathbb{E}[Y_{x, M_{x^*}}]",[128,28590,28592,28658,28801,28954,29021],{"className":28591,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,28593,28595,28598,28605,28608,28611,28614,28617,28646,28649,28652,28655],{"className":28594},[250],[128,28596],{"className":28597,"style":1870},[254],[128,28599,28601],{"className":28600},[259],[128,28602,28604],{"className":28603},[259,12100],"NDE",[128,28606,1848],{"className":28607},[1878],[128,28609,2281],{"className":28610},[259,1815],[128,28612,1795],{"className":28613},[1820],[128,28615],{"className":28616,"style":1824},[269],[128,28618,28620,28623],{"className":28619},[259],[128,28621,2281],{"className":28622},[259,1815],[128,28624,28626],{"className":28625},[2660],[128,28627,28629],{"className":28628},[274],[128,28630,28632],{"className":28631},[278],[128,28633,28635],{"className":28634,"style":28369},[282],[128,28636,28637,28640],{"style":2732},[128,28638],{"className":28639,"style":291},[290],[128,28641,28643],{"className":28642},[299,300,301,298],[128,28644,28124],{"className":28645},[3375,298],[128,28647,1857],{"className":28648},[1894],[128,28650],{"className":28651,"style":1945},[269],[128,28653,2344],{"className":28654},[1949],[128,28656],{"className":28657,"style":1945},[269],[128,28659,28661,28665,28668,28671,28789,28792,28795,28798],{"className":28660},[250],[128,28662],{"className":28663,"style":28664},[254],"height:1.0383em;vertical-align:-0.2883em;",[128,28666,342],{"className":28667},[259,28164],[128,28669,15536],{"className":28670},[1878],[128,28672,28674,28677],{"className":28673},[259],[128,28675,1798],{"className":28676,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,28678,28680],{"className":28679},[2660],[128,28681,28683,28780],{"className":28682},[274,321],[128,28684,28686,28777],{"className":28685},[278],[128,28687,28689],{"className":28688,"style":9078},[282],[128,28690,28691,28694],{"style":3226},[128,28692],{"className":28693,"style":291},[290],[128,28695,28697],{"className":28696},[299,300,301,298],[128,28698,28700,28703,28706],{"className":28699},[259,298],[128,28701,2281],{"className":28702},[259,1815,298],[128,28704,1795],{"className":28705},[1820,298],[128,28707,28709,28712],{"className":28708},[259,298],[128,28710,11188],{"className":28711,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,28713,28715],{"className":28714},[2660],[128,28716,28718,28768],{"className":28717},[274,321],[128,28719,28721,28765],{"className":28720},[278],[128,28722,28724],{"className":28723,"style":20395},[282],[128,28725,28727,28731],{"style":28726},"top:-2.3448em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[128,28728],{"className":28729,"style":28730},[290],"height:2.5423em;",[128,28732,28734],{"className":28733},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,28735,28737],{"className":28736},[259,298],[128,28738,28740,28743],{"className":28739},[259,298],[128,28741,2281],{"className":28742},[259,1815,298],[128,28744,28746],{"className":28745},[2660],[128,28747,28749],{"className":28748},[274],[128,28750,28752],{"className":28751},[278],[128,28753,28756],{"className":28754,"style":28755},[282],"height:0.7593em;",[128,28757,28759,28762],{"style":28758},"top:-2.794em;margin-right:0.1em;",[128,28760],{"className":28761,"style":20135},[290],[128,28763,28124],{"className":28764},[3375,298],[128,28766,347],{"className":28767},[346],[128,28769,28771],{"className":28770},[278],[128,28772,28775],{"className":28773,"style":28774},[282],"height:0.1975em;",[128,28776],{},[128,28778,347],{"className":28779},[346],[128,28781,28783],{"className":28782},[278],[128,28784,28787],{"className":28785,"style":28786},[282],"height:0.2883em;",[128,28788],{},[128,28790,15545],{"className":28791},[1894],[128,28793],{"className":28794,"style":1828},[269],[128,28796,15953],{"className":28797},[3375],[128,28799],{"className":28800,"style":1828},[269],[128,28802,28804,28807,28810,28813,28882,28885,28888,28891,28894,28901,28904,28907,28910,28913,28942,28945,28948,28951],{"className":28803},[250],[128,28805],{"className":28806,"style":1870},[254],[128,28808,342],{"className":28809},[259,28164],[128,28811,15536],{"className":28812},[1878],[128,28814,28816,28819],{"className":28815},[259],[128,28817,1798],{"className":28818,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,28820,28822],{"className":28821},[2660],[128,28823,28825,28874],{"className":28824},[274,321],[128,28826,28828,28871],{"className":28827},[278],[128,28829,28831],{"className":28830,"style":28253},[282],[128,28832,28833,28836],{"style":3226},[128,28834],{"className":28835,"style":291},[290],[128,28837,28839],{"className":28838},[299,300,301,298],[128,28840,28842],{"className":28841},[259,298],[128,28843,28845,28848],{"className":28844},[259,298],[128,28846,2281],{"className":28847},[259,1815,298],[128,28849,28851],{"className":28850},[2660],[128,28852,28854],{"className":28853},[274],[128,28855,28857],{"className":28856},[278],[128,28858,28860],{"className":28859,"style":28283},[282],[128,28861,28862,28865],{"style":28286},[128,28863],{"className":28864,"style":20135},[290],[128,28866,28868],{"className":28867},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,28869,28124],{"className":28870},[3375,298],[128,28872,347],{"className":28873},[346],[128,28875,28877],{"className":28876},[278],[128,28878,28880],{"className":28879,"style":2692},[282],[128,28881],{},[128,28883,15545],{"className":28884},[1894],[128,28886,1795],{"className":28887},[1820],[128,28889],{"className":28890,"style":12192},[269],[128,28892],{"className":28893,"style":1824},[269],[128,28895,28897],{"className":28896},[259],[128,28898,28900],{"className":28899},[259,12100],"NIE",[128,28902,1848],{"className":28903},[1878],[128,28905,2281],{"className":28906},[259,1815],[128,28908,1795],{"className":28909},[1820],[128,28911],{"className":28912,"style":1824},[269],[128,28914,28916,28919],{"className":28915},[259],[128,28917,2281],{"className":28918},[259,1815],[128,28920,28922],{"className":28921},[2660],[128,28923,28925],{"className":28924},[274],[128,28926,28928],{"className":28927},[278],[128,28929,28931],{"className":28930,"style":28369},[282],[128,28932,28933,28936],{"style":2732},[128,28934],{"className":28935,"style":291},[290],[128,28937,28939],{"className":28938},[299,300,301,298],[128,28940,28124],{"className":28941},[3375,298],[128,28943,1857],{"className":28944},[1894],[128,28946],{"className":28947,"style":1945},[269],[128,28949,2344],{"className":28950},[1949],[128,28952],{"className":28953,"style":1945},[269],[128,28955,28957,28960,28963,28966,29009,29012,29015,29018],{"className":28956},[250],[128,28958],{"className":28959,"style":1870},[254],[128,28961,342],{"className":28962},[259,28164],[128,28964,15536],{"className":28965},[1878],[128,28967,28969,28972],{"className":28968},[259],[128,28970,1798],{"className":28971,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,28973,28975],{"className":28974},[2660],[128,28976,28978,29001],{"className":28977},[274,321],[128,28979,28981,28998],{"className":28980},[278],[128,28982,28984],{"className":28983,"style":2670},[282],[128,28985,28986,28989],{"style":3226},[128,28987],{"className":28988,"style":291},[290],[128,28990,28992],{"className":28991},[299,300,301,298],[128,28993,28995],{"className":28994},[259,298],[128,28996,2281],{"className":28997},[259,1815,298],[128,28999,347],{"className":29000},[346],[128,29002,29004],{"className":29003},[278],[128,29005,29007],{"className":29006,"style":2692},[282],[128,29008],{},[128,29010,15545],{"className":29011},[1894],[128,29013],{"className":29014,"style":1828},[269],[128,29016,15953],{"className":29017},[3375],[128,29019],{"className":29020,"style":1828},[269],[128,29022,29024,29027,29030,29033,29145],{"className":29023},[250],[128,29025],{"className":29026,"style":28664},[254],[128,29028,342],{"className":29029},[259,28164],[128,29031,15536],{"className":29032},[1878],[128,29034,29036,29039],{"className":29035},[259],[128,29037,1798],{"className":29038,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,29040,29042],{"className":29041},[2660],[128,29043,29045,29137],{"className":29044},[274,321],[128,29046,29048,29134],{"className":29047},[278],[128,29049,29051],{"className":29050,"style":9078},[282],[128,29052,29053,29056],{"style":3226},[128,29054],{"className":29055,"style":291},[290],[128,29057,29059],{"className":29058},[299,300,301,298],[128,29060,29062,29065,29068],{"className":29061},[259,298],[128,29063,2281],{"className":29064},[259,1815,298],[128,29066,1795],{"className":29067},[1820,298],[128,29069,29071,29074],{"className":29070},[259,298],[128,29072,11188],{"className":29073,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,29075,29077],{"className":29076},[2660],[128,29078,29080,29126],{"className":29079},[274,321],[128,29081,29083,29123],{"className":29082},[278],[128,29084,29086],{"className":29085,"style":20395},[282],[128,29087,29088,29091],{"style":28726},[128,29089],{"className":29090,"style":28730},[290],[128,29092,29094],{"className":29093},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,29095,29097],{"className":29096},[259,298],[128,29098,29100,29103],{"className":29099},[259,298],[128,29101,2281],{"className":29102},[259,1815,298],[128,29104,29106],{"className":29105},[2660],[128,29107,29109],{"className":29108},[274],[128,29110,29112],{"className":29111},[278],[128,29113,29115],{"className":29114,"style":28755},[282],[128,29116,29117,29120],{"style":28758},[128,29118],{"className":29119,"style":20135},[290],[128,29121,28124],{"className":29122},[3375,298],[128,29124,347],{"className":29125},[346],[128,29127,29129],{"className":29128},[278],[128,29130,29132],{"className":29131,"style":28774},[282],[128,29133],{},[128,29135,347],{"className":29136},[346],[128,29138,29140],{"className":29139},[278],[128,29141,29143],{"className":29142,"style":28786},[282],[128,29144],{},[128,29146,15545],{"className":29147},[1894],[128,29149,29151,29183],{"className":29150,"translate":218},[217],[128,29152,29154],{"className":29153},[222],[224,29155,29156],{"xmlns":226},[228,29157,29158,29180],{},[231,29159,29160],{},[2605,29161,29162,29164],{},[1790,29163,1798],{},[231,29165,29166,29168,29170],{},[1790,29167,2281],{},[1793,29169,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,29171,29172,29174],{},[1790,29173,11188],{},[2614,29175,29176,29178],{},[1790,29177,2281],{},[1793,29179,28124],{},[238,29181,29182],{"encoding":240},"Y_{x, M_{x^*}}",[128,29184,29186],{"className":29185,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29187,29189,29193],{"className":29188},[250],[128,29190],{"className":29191,"style":29192},[254],"height:0.9716em;vertical-align:-0.2883em;",[128,29194,29196,29199],{"className":29195},[259],[128,29197,1798],{"className":29198,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,29200,29202],{"className":29201},[2660],[128,29203,29205,29297],{"className":29204},[274,321],[128,29206,29208,29294],{"className":29207},[278],[128,29209,29211],{"className":29210,"style":9078},[282],[128,29212,29213,29216],{"style":3226},[128,29214],{"className":29215,"style":291},[290],[128,29217,29219],{"className":29218},[299,300,301,298],[128,29220,29222,29225,29228],{"className":29221},[259,298],[128,29223,2281],{"className":29224},[259,1815,298],[128,29226,1795],{"className":29227},[1820,298],[128,29229,29231,29234],{"className":29230},[259,298],[128,29232,11188],{"className":29233,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,29235,29237],{"className":29236},[2660],[128,29238,29240,29286],{"className":29239},[274,321],[128,29241,29243,29283],{"className":29242},[278],[128,29244,29246],{"className":29245,"style":20395},[282],[128,29247,29248,29251],{"style":28726},[128,29249],{"className":29250,"style":28730},[290],[128,29252,29254],{"className":29253},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,29255,29257],{"className":29256},[259,298],[128,29258,29260,29263],{"className":29259},[259,298],[128,29261,2281],{"className":29262},[259,1815,298],[128,29264,29266],{"className":29265},[2660],[128,29267,29269],{"className":29268},[274],[128,29270,29272],{"className":29271},[278],[128,29273,29275],{"className":29274,"style":28755},[282],[128,29276,29277,29280],{"style":28758},[128,29278],{"className":29279,"style":20135},[290],[128,29281,28124],{"className":29282},[3375,298],[128,29284,347],{"className":29285},[346],[128,29287,29289],{"className":29288},[278],[128,29290,29292],{"className":29291,"style":28774},[282],[128,29293],{},[128,29295,347],{"className":29296},[346],[128,29298,29300],{"className":29299},[278],[128,29301,29303],{"className":29302,"style":28786},[282],[128,29304],{}," 表示「把 ",[128,29307,29309,29322],{"className":29308,"translate":218},[217],[128,29310,29312],{"className":29311},[222],[224,29313,29314],{"xmlns":226},[228,29315,29316,29320],{},[231,29317,29318],{},[1790,29319,364],{},[238,29321,364],{"encoding":240},[128,29323,29325],{"className":29324,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29326,29328,29331],{"className":29327},[250],[128,29329],{"className":29330,"style":283},[254],[128,29332,364],{"className":29333,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 设为 ",[128,29336,29338,29351],{"className":29337,"translate":218},[217],[128,29339,29341],{"className":29340},[222],[224,29342,29343],{"xmlns":226},[228,29344,29345,29349],{},[231,29346,29347],{},[1790,29348,2281],{},[238,29350,2281],{"encoding":240},[128,29352,29354],{"className":29353,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29355,29357,29360],{"className":29356},[250],[128,29358],{"className":29359,"style":2377},[254],[128,29361,2281],{"className":29362},[259,1815],"，同时把 ",[128,29365,29367,29380],{"className":29366,"translate":218},[217],[128,29368,29370],{"className":29369},[222],[224,29371,29372],{"xmlns":226},[228,29373,29374,29378],{},[231,29375,29376],{},[1790,29377,11188],{},[238,29379,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,29381,29383],{"className":29382,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29384,29386,29389],{"className":29385},[250],[128,29387],{"className":29388,"style":283},[254],[128,29390,11188],{"className":29391,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 设为",[35,29394,29395,29396,29424,29425,8903,29483,29511],{},"若 ",[128,29397,29399,29412],{"className":29398,"translate":218},[217],[128,29400,29402],{"className":29401},[222],[224,29403,29404],{"xmlns":226},[228,29405,29406,29410],{},[231,29407,29408],{},[1790,29409,364],{},[238,29411,364],{"encoding":240},[128,29413,29415],{"className":29414,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29416,29418,29421],{"className":29417},[250],[128,29419],{"className":29420,"style":283},[254],[128,29422,364],{"className":29423,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 取 ",[128,29426,29428,29445],{"className":29427,"translate":218},[217],[128,29429,29431],{"className":29430},[222],[224,29432,29433],{"xmlns":226},[228,29434,29435,29443],{},[231,29436,29437],{},[2614,29438,29439,29441],{},[1790,29440,2281],{},[1793,29442,28124],{},[238,29444,28359],{"encoding":240},[128,29446,29448],{"className":29447,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29449,29451,29454],{"className":29450},[250],[128,29452],{"className":29453,"style":28369},[254],[128,29455,29457,29460],{"className":29456},[259],[128,29458,2281],{"className":29459},[259,1815],[128,29461,29463],{"className":29462},[2660],[128,29464,29466],{"className":29465},[274],[128,29467,29469],{"className":29468},[278],[128,29470,29472],{"className":29471,"style":28369},[282],[128,29473,29474,29477],{"style":2732},[128,29475],{"className":29476,"style":291},[290],[128,29478,29480],{"className":29479},[299,300,301,298],[128,29481,28124],{"className":29482},[3375,298],[128,29484,29486,29499],{"className":29485,"translate":218},[217],[128,29487,29489],{"className":29488},[222],[224,29490,29491],{"xmlns":226},[228,29492,29493,29497],{},[231,29494,29495],{},[1790,29496,11188],{},[238,29498,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,29500,29502],{"className":29501,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29503,29505,29508],{"className":29504},[250],[128,29506],{"className":29507,"style":283},[254],[128,29509,11188],{"className":29510,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 本会取的值","」这一反事实量。",[11,29514,29515,29516,28075,29519],{},"由定义立即可得",[35,29517,29518],{},"总效应的精确分解",[128,29520,29522,29560],{"className":29521,"translate":218},[217],[128,29523,29525],{"className":29524},[222],[224,29526,29527],{"xmlns":226},[228,29528,29529,29557],{},[231,29530,29531,29537,29539,29547,29549],{},[231,29532,29533,29535],{},[1790,29534,313],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,29536,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,29538,2344],{},[231,29540,29541,29543,29545],{},[1790,29542,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,29544,28455],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,29546,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,29548,4620],{},[231,29550,29551,29553,29555],{},[1790,29552,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,29554,18392],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,29556,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[238,29558,29559],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{TE} = \\mathrm{NDE} + \\mathrm{NIE}",[128,29561,29563,29584,29605],{"className":29562,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29564,29566,29569,29575,29578,29581],{"className":29565},[250],[128,29567],{"className":29568,"style":283},[254],[128,29570,29572],{"className":29571},[259],[128,29573,28145],{"className":29574},[259,12100],[128,29576],{"className":29577,"style":1945},[269],[128,29579,2344],{"className":29580},[1949],[128,29582],{"className":29583,"style":1945},[269],[128,29585,29587,29590,29596,29599,29602],{"className":29586},[250],[128,29588],{"className":29589,"style":3365},[254],[128,29591,29593],{"className":29592},[259],[128,29594,28604],{"className":29595},[259,12100],[128,29597],{"className":29598,"style":1828},[269],[128,29600,4620],{"className":29601},[3375],[128,29603],{"className":29604,"style":1828},[269],[128,29606,29608,29611],{"className":29607},[250],[128,29609],{"className":29610,"style":283},[254],[128,29612,29614],{"className":29613},[259],[128,29615,28900],{"className":29616},[259,12100],[11,29618,29619,29620,29723,29724,29793],{},"其含义可以这样读：NDE 让中介停留在「另一个世界」的取值上，因此度量的正是直接通道；NIE 则度量中介由 ",[128,29621,29623,29645],{"className":29622,"translate":218},[217],[128,29624,29626],{"className":29625},[222],[224,29627,29628],{"xmlns":226},[228,29629,29630,29642],{},[231,29631,29632],{},[2605,29633,29634,29636],{},[1790,29635,11188],{},[2614,29637,29638,29640],{},[1790,29639,2281],{},[1793,29641,28124],{},[238,29643,29644],{"encoding":240},"M_{x^*}",[128,29646,29648],{"className":29647,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29649,29651,29654],{"className":29650},[250],[128,29652],{"className":29653,"style":3592},[254],[128,29655,29657,29660],{"className":29656},[259],[128,29658,11188],{"className":29659,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,29661,29663],{"className":29662},[2660],[128,29664,29666,29715],{"className":29665},[274,321],[128,29667,29669,29712],{"className":29668},[278],[128,29670,29672],{"className":29671,"style":28253},[282],[128,29673,29674,29677],{"style":4311},[128,29675],{"className":29676,"style":291},[290],[128,29678,29680],{"className":29679},[299,300,301,298],[128,29681,29683],{"className":29682},[259,298],[128,29684,29686,29689],{"className":29685},[259,298],[128,29687,2281],{"className":29688},[259,1815,298],[128,29690,29692],{"className":29691},[2660],[128,29693,29695],{"className":29694},[274],[128,29696,29698],{"className":29697},[278],[128,29699,29701],{"className":29700,"style":28283},[282],[128,29702,29703,29706],{"style":28286},[128,29704],{"className":29705,"style":20135},[290],[128,29707,29709],{"className":29708},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,29710,28124],{"className":29711},[3375,298],[128,29713,347],{"className":29714},[346],[128,29716,29718],{"className":29717},[278],[128,29719,29721],{"className":29720,"style":2692},[282],[128,29722],{}," 变为 ",[128,29725,29727,29744],{"className":29726,"translate":218},[217],[128,29728,29730],{"className":29729},[222],[224,29731,29732],{"xmlns":226},[228,29733,29734,29742],{},[231,29735,29736],{},[2605,29737,29738,29740],{},[1790,29739,11188],{},[1790,29741,2281],{},[238,29743,19911],{"encoding":240},[128,29745,29747],{"className":29746,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29748,29750,29753],{"className":29749},[250],[128,29751],{"className":29752,"style":3592},[254],[128,29754,29756,29759],{"className":29755},[259],[128,29757,11188],{"className":29758,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,29760,29762],{"className":29761},[2660],[128,29763,29765,29785],{"className":29764},[274,321],[128,29766,29768,29782],{"className":29767},[278],[128,29769,29771],{"className":29770,"style":2670},[282],[128,29772,29773,29776],{"style":4311},[128,29774],{"className":29775,"style":291},[290],[128,29777,29779],{"className":29778},[299,300,301,298],[128,29780,2281],{"className":29781},[259,1815,298],[128,29783,347],{"className":29784},[346],[128,29786,29788],{"className":29787},[278],[128,29789,29791],{"className":29790,"style":2692},[282],[128,29792],{}," 所贡献的间接部分。",[11,29795,29796,29797,29955,29956,29984,29985,2173,30035,30116],{},"需要特别注意，",[35,29798,29799,29954],{},[128,29800,29802,29833],{"className":29801,"translate":218},[217],[128,29803,29805],{"className":29804},[222],[224,29806,29807],{"xmlns":226},[228,29808,29809,29831],{},[231,29810,29811],{},[2605,29812,29813,29815],{},[1790,29814,1798],{},[231,29816,29817,29819,29821],{},[1790,29818,2281],{},[1793,29820,1795],{"separator":246},[2605,29822,29823,29825],{},[1790,29824,11188],{},[2614,29826,29827,29829],{},[1790,29828,2281],{},[1793,29830,28124],{},[238,29832,29182],{"encoding":240},[128,29834,29836],{"className":29835,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29837,29839,29842],{"className":29838},[250],[128,29840],{"className":29841,"style":29192},[254],[128,29843,29845,29848],{"className":29844},[259],[128,29846,1798],{"className":29847,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,29849,29851],{"className":29850},[2660],[128,29852,29854,29946],{"className":29853},[274,321],[128,29855,29857,29943],{"className":29856},[278],[128,29858,29860],{"className":29859,"style":9078},[282],[128,29861,29862,29865],{"style":3226},[128,29863],{"className":29864,"style":291},[290],[128,29866,29868],{"className":29867},[299,300,301,298],[128,29869,29871,29874,29877],{"className":29870},[259,298],[128,29872,2281],{"className":29873},[259,1815,298],[128,29875,1795],{"className":29876},[1820,298],[128,29878,29880,29883],{"className":29879},[259,298],[128,29881,11188],{"className":29882,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,29884,29886],{"className":29885},[2660],[128,29887,29889,29935],{"className":29888},[274,321],[128,29890,29892,29932],{"className":29891},[278],[128,29893,29895],{"className":29894,"style":20395},[282],[128,29896,29897,29900],{"style":28726},[128,29898],{"className":29899,"style":28730},[290],[128,29901,29903],{"className":29902},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,29904,29906],{"className":29905},[259,298],[128,29907,29909,29912],{"className":29908},[259,298],[128,29910,2281],{"className":29911},[259,1815,298],[128,29913,29915],{"className":29914},[2660],[128,29916,29918],{"className":29917},[274],[128,29919,29921],{"className":29920},[278],[128,29922,29924],{"className":29923,"style":28755},[282],[128,29925,29926,29929],{"style":28758},[128,29927],{"className":29928,"style":20135},[290],[128,29930,28124],{"className":29931},[3375,298],[128,29933,347],{"className":29934},[346],[128,29936,29938],{"className":29937},[278],[128,29939,29941],{"className":29940,"style":28774},[282],[128,29942],{},[128,29944,347],{"className":29945},[346],[128,29947,29949],{"className":29948},[278],[128,29950,29952],{"className":29951,"style":28786},[282],[128,29953],{}," 是一个跨世界（cross-world）量","：它在同一个个体 ",[128,29957,29959,29972],{"className":29958,"translate":218},[217],[128,29960,29962],{"className":29961},[222],[224,29963,29964],{"xmlns":226},[228,29965,29966,29970],{},[231,29967,29968],{},[1790,29969,15496],{},[238,29971,15496],{"encoding":240},[128,29973,29975],{"className":29974,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,29976,29978,29981],{"className":29977},[250],[128,29979],{"className":29980,"style":2377},[254],[128,29982,15496],{"className":29983},[259,1815]," 上同时引用了 ",[128,29986,29988,30005],{"className":29987,"translate":218},[217],[128,29989,29991],{"className":29990},[222],[224,29992,29993],{"xmlns":226},[228,29994,29995,30003],{},[231,29996,29997,29999,30001],{},[1790,29998,364],{},[1793,30000,2344],{},[1790,30002,2281],{},[238,30004,2349],{"encoding":240},[128,30006,30008,30026],{"className":30007,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30009,30011,30014,30017,30020,30023],{"className":30010},[250],[128,30012],{"className":30013,"style":283},[254],[128,30015,364],{"className":30016,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,30018],{"className":30019,"style":1945},[269],[128,30021,2344],{"className":30022},[1949],[128,30024],{"className":30025,"style":1945},[269],[128,30027,30029,30032],{"className":30028},[250],[128,30030],{"className":30031,"style":2377},[254],[128,30033,2281],{"className":30034},[259,1815],[128,30036,30038,30060],{"className":30037,"translate":218},[217],[128,30039,30041],{"className":30040},[222],[224,30042,30043],{"xmlns":226},[228,30044,30045,30057],{},[231,30046,30047,30049,30051],{},[1790,30048,364],{},[1793,30050,2344],{},[2614,30052,30053,30055],{},[1790,30054,2281],{},[1793,30056,28124],{},[238,30058,30059],{"encoding":240},"X=x^*",[128,30061,30063,30081],{"className":30062,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30064,30066,30069,30072,30075,30078],{"className":30065},[250],[128,30067],{"className":30068,"style":283},[254],[128,30070,364],{"className":30071,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,30073],{"className":30074,"style":1945},[269],[128,30076,2344],{"className":30077},[1949],[128,30079],{"className":30080,"style":1945},[269],[128,30082,30084,30087],{"className":30083},[250],[128,30085],{"className":30086,"style":28369},[254],[128,30088,30090,30093],{"className":30089},[259],[128,30091,2281],{"className":30092},[259,1815],[128,30094,30096],{"className":30095},[2660],[128,30097,30099],{"className":30098},[274],[128,30100,30102],{"className":30101},[278],[128,30103,30105],{"className":30104,"style":28369},[282],[128,30106,30107,30110],{"style":2732},[128,30108],{"className":30109,"style":291},[290],[128,30111,30113],{"className":30112},[299,300,301,298],[128,30114,28124],{"className":30115},[3375,298]," 这两个互不相容的世界。因此中介分析在本质上属于第三层而非第二层——这也解释了为什么中介效应长期以来被认为是不可识别的。",[11,30118,30119,30122],{},[35,30120,30121],{},"可识别性条件（序贯可忽略性）","：要使 NDE 与 NIE 可由观测数据估计，需要同时满足",[9643,30124,30125,30212,30299,30385],{},[2252,30126,30127,2173,30155,30183,30184,8550],{},[128,30128,30130,30143],{"className":30129,"translate":218},[217],[128,30131,30133],{"className":30132},[222],[224,30134,30135],{"xmlns":226},[228,30136,30137,30141],{},[231,30138,30139],{},[1790,30140,364],{},[238,30142,364],{"encoding":240},[128,30144,30146],{"className":30145,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30147,30149,30152],{"className":30148},[250],[128,30150],{"className":30151,"style":283},[254],[128,30153,364],{"className":30154,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,30156,30158,30171],{"className":30157,"translate":218},[217],[128,30159,30161],{"className":30160},[222],[224,30162,30163],{"xmlns":226},[228,30164,30165,30169],{},[231,30166,30167],{},[1790,30168,1798],{},[238,30170,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,30172,30174],{"className":30173,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30175,30177,30180],{"className":30176},[250],[128,30178],{"className":30179,"style":283},[254],[128,30181,1798],{"className":30182,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间无未观测混杂（给定协变量 ",[128,30185,30187,30200],{"className":30186,"translate":218},[217],[128,30188,30190],{"className":30189},[222],[224,30191,30192],{"xmlns":226},[228,30193,30194,30198],{},[231,30195,30196],{},[1790,30197,5521],{},[238,30199,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,30201,30203],{"className":30202,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30204,30206,30209],{"className":30205},[250],[128,30207],{"className":30208,"style":283},[254],[128,30210,5521],{"className":30211,"style":1874},[259,1815],[2252,30213,30214,2173,30242,30270,30271,8550],{},[128,30215,30217,30230],{"className":30216,"translate":218},[217],[128,30218,30220],{"className":30219},[222],[224,30221,30222],{"xmlns":226},[228,30223,30224,30228],{},[231,30225,30226],{},[1790,30227,11188],{},[238,30229,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,30231,30233],{"className":30232,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30234,30236,30239],{"className":30235},[250],[128,30237],{"className":30238,"style":283},[254],[128,30240,11188],{"className":30241,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,30243,30245,30258],{"className":30244,"translate":218},[217],[128,30246,30248],{"className":30247},[222],[224,30249,30250],{"xmlns":226},[228,30251,30252,30256],{},[231,30253,30254],{},[1790,30255,1798],{},[238,30257,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,30259,30261],{"className":30260,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30262,30264,30267],{"className":30263},[250],[128,30265],{"className":30266,"style":283},[254],[128,30268,1798],{"className":30269,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间无未观测混杂（给定 ",[128,30272,30274,30287],{"className":30273,"translate":218},[217],[128,30275,30277],{"className":30276},[222],[224,30278,30279],{"xmlns":226},[228,30280,30281,30285],{},[231,30282,30283],{},[1790,30284,5521],{},[238,30286,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,30288,30290],{"className":30289,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30291,30293,30296],{"className":30292},[250],[128,30294],{"className":30295,"style":283},[254],[128,30297,5521],{"className":30298,"style":1874},[259,1815],[2252,30300,30301,2173,30329,30270,30357,8550],{},[128,30302,30304,30317],{"className":30303,"translate":218},[217],[128,30305,30307],{"className":30306},[222],[224,30308,30309],{"xmlns":226},[228,30310,30311,30315],{},[231,30312,30313],{},[1790,30314,364],{},[238,30316,364],{"encoding":240},[128,30318,30320],{"className":30319,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30321,30323,30326],{"className":30322},[250],[128,30324],{"className":30325,"style":283},[254],[128,30327,364],{"className":30328,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,30330,30332,30345],{"className":30331,"translate":218},[217],[128,30333,30335],{"className":30334},[222],[224,30336,30337],{"xmlns":226},[228,30338,30339,30343],{},[231,30340,30341],{},[1790,30342,11188],{},[238,30344,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,30346,30348],{"className":30347,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30349,30351,30354],{"className":30350},[250],[128,30352],{"className":30353,"style":283},[254],[128,30355,11188],{"className":30356,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,30358,30360,30373],{"className":30359,"translate":218},[217],[128,30361,30363],{"className":30362},[222],[224,30364,30365],{"xmlns":226},[228,30366,30367,30371],{},[231,30368,30369],{},[1790,30370,5521],{},[238,30372,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,30374,30376],{"className":30375,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30377,30379,30382],{"className":30378},[250],[128,30380],{"className":30381,"style":283},[254],[128,30383,5521],{"className":30384,"style":1874},[259,1815],[2252,30386,30387,2173,30415,30443,30444,30472],{},[128,30388,30390,30403],{"className":30389,"translate":218},[217],[128,30391,30393],{"className":30392},[222],[224,30394,30395],{"xmlns":226},[228,30396,30397,30401],{},[231,30398,30399],{},[1790,30400,11188],{},[238,30402,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,30404,30406],{"className":30405,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30407,30409,30412],{"className":30408},[250],[128,30410],{"className":30411,"style":283},[254],[128,30413,11188],{"className":30414,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,30416,30418,30431],{"className":30417,"translate":218},[217],[128,30419,30421],{"className":30420},[222],[224,30422,30423],{"xmlns":226},[228,30424,30425,30429],{},[231,30426,30427],{},[1790,30428,1798],{},[238,30430,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,30432,30434],{"className":30433,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30435,30437,30440],{"className":30436},[250],[128,30438],{"className":30439,"style":283},[254],[128,30441,1798],{"className":30442,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间不存在受 ",[128,30445,30447,30460],{"className":30446,"translate":218},[217],[128,30448,30450],{"className":30449},[222],[224,30451,30452],{"xmlns":226},[228,30453,30454,30458],{},[231,30455,30456],{},[1790,30457,364],{},[238,30459,364],{"encoding":240},[128,30461,30463],{"className":30462,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30464,30466,30469],{"className":30465},[250],[128,30467],{"className":30468,"style":283},[254],[128,30470,364],{"className":30471,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 影响的混杂因子。",[11,30474,30475,30476,30479,30480,30908,30909,31007],{},"其中第 4 条最容易被忽略，也最强：它要求中介与结果之间不能存在被处理变量触及的共同原因。四条合称",[35,30477,30478],{},"序贯可忽略性（sequential ignorability）","。在此条件下，自然直接效应可由观测分布表达为\n",[128,30481,30483,30597],{"className":30482,"translate":218},[217],[128,30484,30486],{"className":30485},[222],[224,30487,30488],{"xmlns":226},[228,30489,30490,30594],{},[231,30491,30492,30500,30502,30515,30518,30520,30522,30524,30526,30528,30530,30532,30534,30536,30538,30540,30542,30544,30546,30548,30554,30556,30558,30560,30562,30564,30566,30568,30570,30572,30574,30580,30582,30584,30586,30588,30590,30592],{},[231,30493,30494,30496,30498],{},[1790,30495,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30497,28455],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30499,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,30501,2344],{},[2605,30503,30504,30506],{},[1793,30505,22140],{},[231,30507,30508,30510,30512],{},[1790,30509,11330],{},[1793,30511,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30513,30514],{},"w",[1793,30516,15536],{"fence":1847,"stretchy":246,"minsize":30517,"maxsize":30517},"1.8em",[1790,30519,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,30521,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,30523,1798],{},[1793,30525,1916],{},[1790,30527,2281],{},[1793,30529,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30531,11330],{},[1793,30533,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30535,30514],{},[1793,30537,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,30539,15953],{},[1790,30541,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,30543,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,30545,1798],{},[1793,30547,1916],{},[2614,30549,30550,30552],{},[1790,30551,2281],{},[1793,30553,28124],{},[1793,30555,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30557,11330],{},[1793,30559,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30561,30514],{},[1793,30563,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,30565,15545],{"fence":1847,"stretchy":246,"minsize":30517,"maxsize":30517},[1790,30567,1844],{},[1793,30569,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,30571,11330],{},[1793,30573,1916],{},[2614,30575,30576,30578],{},[1790,30577,2281],{},[1793,30579,28124],{},[1793,30581,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,30583,30514],{},[1793,30585,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,30587,1844],{},[1793,30589,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,30591,30514],{},[1793,30593,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,30595,30596],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{NDE} = \\sum_{m, w}\\Big[\\mathbb{E}[Y \\mid x, m, w] - \\mathbb{E}[Y \\mid x^*, m, w]\\Big] P(m \\mid x^*, w) P(w)",[128,30598,30600,30621,30706,30745,30769,30849],{"className":30599,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30601,30603,30606,30612,30615,30618],{"className":30602},[250],[128,30604],{"className":30605,"style":283},[254],[128,30607,30609],{"className":30608},[259],[128,30610,28604],{"className":30611},[259,12100],[128,30613],{"className":30614,"style":1945},[269],[128,30616,2344],{"className":30617},[1949],[128,30619],{"className":30620,"style":1945},[269],[128,30622,30624,30628,30678,30681,30688,30691,30694,30697,30700,30703],{"className":30623},[250],[128,30625],{"className":30626,"style":30627},[254],"height:1.8em;vertical-align:-0.65em;",[128,30629,30631,30634],{"className":30630},[14490],[128,30632,22140],{"className":30633,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,30635,30637],{"className":30636},[2660],[128,30638,30640,30670],{"className":30639},[274,321],[128,30641,30643,30667],{"className":30642},[278],[128,30644,30646],{"className":30645,"style":22337},[282],[128,30647,30648,30651],{"style":14512},[128,30649],{"className":30650,"style":291},[290],[128,30652,30654],{"className":30653},[299,300,301,298],[128,30655,30657,30660,30663],{"className":30656},[259,298],[128,30658,11330],{"className":30659},[259,1815,298],[128,30661,1795],{"className":30662},[1820,298],[128,30664,30514],{"className":30665,"style":30666},[259,1815,298],"margin-right:0.0269em;",[128,30668,347],{"className":30669},[346],[128,30671,30673],{"className":30672},[278],[128,30674,30676],{"className":30675,"style":20993},[282],[128,30677],{},[128,30679],{"className":30680,"style":1824},[269],[128,30682,30684],{"className":30683},[259],[128,30685,15536],{"className":30686},[16806,30687],"size2",[128,30689,342],{"className":30690},[259,28164],[128,30692,15536],{"className":30693},[1878],[128,30695,1798],{"className":30696,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,30698],{"className":30699,"style":1945},[269],[128,30701,1916],{"className":30702},[1949],[128,30704],{"className":30705,"style":1945},[269],[128,30707,30709,30712,30715,30718,30721,30724,30727,30730,30733,30736,30739,30742],{"className":30708},[250],[128,30710],{"className":30711,"style":1870},[254],[128,30713,2281],{"className":30714},[259,1815],[128,30716,1795],{"className":30717},[1820],[128,30719],{"className":30720,"style":1824},[269],[128,30722,11330],{"className":30723},[259,1815],[128,30725,1795],{"className":30726},[1820],[128,30728],{"className":30729,"style":1824},[269],[128,30731,30514],{"className":30732,"style":30666},[259,1815],[128,30734,15545],{"className":30735},[1894],[128,30737],{"className":30738,"style":1828},[269],[128,30740,15953],{"className":30741},[3375],[128,30743],{"className":30744,"style":1828},[269],[128,30746,30748,30751,30754,30757,30760,30763,30766],{"className":30747},[250],[128,30749],{"className":30750,"style":1870},[254],[128,30752,342],{"className":30753},[259,28164],[128,30755,15536],{"className":30756},[1878],[128,30758,1798],{"className":30759,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,30761],{"className":30762,"style":1945},[269],[128,30764,1916],{"className":30765},[1949],[128,30767],{"className":30768,"style":1945},[269],[128,30770,30772,30775,30804,30807,30810,30813,30816,30819,30822,30825,30831,30834,30837,30840,30843,30846],{"className":30771},[250],[128,30773],{"className":30774,"style":30627},[254],[128,30776,30778,30781],{"className":30777},[259],[128,30779,2281],{"className":30780},[259,1815],[128,30782,30784],{"className":30783},[2660],[128,30785,30787],{"className":30786},[274],[128,30788,30790],{"className":30789},[278],[128,30791,30793],{"className":30792,"style":28369},[282],[128,30794,30795,30798],{"style":2732},[128,30796],{"className":30797,"style":291},[290],[128,30799,30801],{"className":30800},[299,300,301,298],[128,30802,28124],{"className":30803},[3375,298],[128,30805,1795],{"className":30806},[1820],[128,30808],{"className":30809,"style":1824},[269],[128,30811,11330],{"className":30812},[259,1815],[128,30814,1795],{"className":30815},[1820],[128,30817],{"className":30818,"style":1824},[269],[128,30820,30514],{"className":30821,"style":30666},[259,1815],[128,30823,15545],{"className":30824},[1894],[128,30826,30828],{"className":30827},[259],[128,30829,15545],{"className":30830},[16806,30687],[128,30832,1844],{"className":30833,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,30835,1848],{"className":30836},[1878],[128,30838,11330],{"className":30839},[259,1815],[128,30841],{"className":30842,"style":1945},[269],[128,30844,1916],{"className":30845},[1949],[128,30847],{"className":30848,"style":1945},[269],[128,30850,30852,30855,30884,30887,30890,30893,30896,30899,30902,30905],{"className":30851},[250],[128,30853],{"className":30854,"style":1870},[254],[128,30856,30858,30861],{"className":30857},[259],[128,30859,2281],{"className":30860},[259,1815],[128,30862,30864],{"className":30863},[2660],[128,30865,30867],{"className":30866},[274],[128,30868,30870],{"className":30869},[278],[128,30871,30873],{"className":30872,"style":28369},[282],[128,30874,30875,30878],{"st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",[128,30910,30912,30950],{"className":30911,"translate":218},[217],[128,30913,30915],{"className":30914},[222],[224,30916,30917],{"xmlns":226},[228,30918,30919,30947],{},[231,30920,30921,30929,30931,30937,30939],{},[231,30922,30923,30925,30927],{},[1790,30924,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30926,18392],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30928,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,30930,2344],{},[231,30932,30933,30935],{},[1790,30934,313],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30936,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,30938,15953],{},[231,30940,30941,30943,30945],{},[1790,30942,28452],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30944,28455],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,30946,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[238,30948,30949],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{NIE} = \\mathrm{TE} - \\mathrm{NDE}",[128,30951,30953,30974,30995],{"className":30952,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,30954,30956,30959,30965,30968,30971],{"className":30955},[250],[128,30957],{"className":30958,"style":283},[254],[128,30960,30962],{"className":30961},[259],[128,30963,28900],{"className":30964},[259,12100],[128,30966],{"className":30967,"style":1945},[269],[128,30969,2344],{"className":30970},[1949],[128,30972],{"className":30973,"style":1945},[269],[128,30975,30977,30980,30986,30989,30992],{"className":30976},[250],[128,30978],{"className":30979,"style":3365},[254],[128,30981,30983],{"className":30982},[259],[128,30984,28145],{"className":30985},[259,12100],[128,30987],{"className":30988,"style":1828},[269],[128,30990,15953],{"className":30991},[3375],[128,30993],{"className":30994,"style":1828},[269],[128,30996,30998,31001],{"className":30997},[250],[128,30999],{"className":31000,"style":283},[254],[128,31002,31004],{"className":31003},[259],[128,31005,28604],{"className":31006},[259,12100]," 给出。",[11,31009,31010,31013,31014,31087,31088,31116,31117,31145,31146,31149,31150,31153,31154,31182,31183,31211,31212,31240,31241,31313,31314,31342,31343,31394,31395,31423],{},[35,31011,31012],{},"回到例 1.2 的告诫","：实践中极易发生的一种错误，是把中介当作普通协变量放进回归模型 ",[128,31015,31017,31039],{"className":31016,"translate":218},[217],[128,31018,31020],{"className":31019},[222],[224,31021,31022],{"xmlns":226},[228,31023,31024,31036],{},[231,31025,31026,31028,31030,31032,31034],{},[1790,31027,1798],{},[1793,31029,15478],{},[1790,31031,364],{},[1793,31033,4620],{},[1790,31035,11188],{},[238,31037,31038],{"encoding":240},"Y \\sim X + M",[128,31040,31042,31060,31078],{"className":31041,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31043,31045,31048,31051,31054,31057],{"className":31044},[250],[128,31046],{"className":31047,"style":283},[254],[128,31049,1798],{"className":31050,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,31052],{"className":31053,"style":1945},[269],[128,31055,15478],{"className":31056},[1949],[128,31058],{"className":31059,"style":1945},[269],[128,31061,31063,31066,31069,31072,31075],{"className":31062},[250],[128,31064],{"className":31065,"style":3365},[254],[128,31067,364],{"className":31068,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,31070],{"className":31071,"style":1828},[269],[128,31073,4620],{"className":31074},[3375],[128,31076],{"className":31077,"style":1828},[269],[128,31079,31081,31084],{"className":31080},[250],[128,31082],{"className":31083,"style":283},[254],[128,31085,11188],{"className":31086,"style":4296},[259,1815],"，再把 ",[128,31089,31091,31104],{"className":31090,"translate":218},[217],[128,31092,31094],{"className":31093},[222],[224,31095,31096],{"xmlns":226},[228,31097,31098,31102],{},[231,31099,31100],{},[1790,31101,364],{},[238,31103,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31105,31107],{"className":31106,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31108,31110,31113],{"className":31109},[250],[128,31111],{"className":31112,"style":283},[254],[128,31114,364],{"className":31115,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的系数解释为「",[128,31118,31120,31133],{"className":31119,"translate":218},[217],[128,31121,31123],{"className":31122},[222],[224,31124,31125],{"xmlns":226},[228,31126,31127,31131],{},[231,31128,31129],{},[1790,31130,364],{},[238,31132,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31134,31136],{"className":31135,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31137,31139,31142],{"className":31138},[250],[128,31140],{"className":31141,"style":283},[254],[128,31143,364],{"className":31144,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的效应」。由上述分解立即可见，这样做得到的其实只是",[35,31147,31148],{},"直接效应"," NDE，它系统性地",[35,31151,31152],{},"遗漏","了经由 ",[128,31155,31157,31170],{"className":31156,"translate":218},[217],[128,31158,31160],{"className":31159},[222],[224,31161,31162],{"xmlns":226},[228,31163,31164,31168],{},[231,31165,31166],{},[1790,31167,11188],{},[238,31169,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,31171,31173],{"className":31172,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31174,31176,31179],{"className":31175},[250],[128,31177],{"className":31178,"style":283},[254],[128,31180,11188],{"className":31181,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 传递的间接部分，因而会低估 ",[128,31184,31186,31199],{"className":31185,"translate":218},[217],[128,31187,31189],{"className":31188},[222],[224,31190,31191],{"xmlns":226},[228,31192,31193,31197],{},[231,31194,31195],{},[1790,31196,364],{},[238,31198,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31200,31202],{"className":31201,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31203,31205,31208],{"className":31204},[250],[128,31206],{"className":31207,"style":283},[254],[128,31209,364],{"className":31210,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的总效应。而当「控制 ",[128,31213,31215,31228],{"className":31214,"translate":218},[217],[128,31216,31218],{"className":31217},[222],[224,31219,31220],{"xmlns":226},[228,31221,31222,31226],{},[231,31223,31224],{},[1790,31225,11188],{},[238,31227,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,31229,31231],{"className":31230,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31232,31234,31237],{"className":31233},[250],[128,31235],{"className":31236,"style":283},[254],[128,31238,11188],{"className":31239,"style":4296},[259,1815],"」的动机恰恰是「我想排除混杂」时，这一操作等于是把待估计的那条因果通道本身切断了——这是链结构在实践中最重要的一个陷阱。即便只想得到 NDE，也仍然需要上述四条假设；只有在线性且无交互的特殊情形下，",[128,31242,31244,31265],{"className":31243,"translate":218},[217],[128,31245,31247],{"className":31246},[222],[224,31248,31249],{"xmlns":226},[228,31250,31251,31263],{},[231,31252,31253,31255,31257,31259,31261],{},[1790,31254,1798],{},[1793,31256,15478],{},[1790,31258,364],{},[1793,31260,4620],{},[1790,31262,11188],{},[238,31264,31038],{"encoding":240},[128,31266,31268,31286,31304],{"className":31267,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31269,31271,31274,31277,31280,31283],{"className":31270},[250],[128,31272],{"className":31273,"style":283},[254],[128,31275,1798],{"className":31276,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,31278],{"className":31279,"style":1945},[269],[128,31281,15478],{"className":31282},[1949],[128,31284],{"className":31285,"style":1945},[269],[128,31287,31289,31292,31295,31298,31301],{"className":31288},[250],[128,31290],{"className":31291,"style":3365},[254],[128,31293,364],{"className":31294,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,31296],{"className":31297,"style":1828},[269],[128,31299,4620],{"className":31300},[3375],[128,31302],{"className":31303,"style":1828},[269],[128,31305,31307,31310],{"className":31306},[250],[128,31308],{"className":31309,"style":283},[254],[128,31311,11188],{"className":31312,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 中 ",[128,31315,31317,31330],{"className":31316,"translate":218},[217],[128,31318,31320],{"className":31319},[222],[224,31321,31322],{"xmlns":226},[228,31323,31324,31328],{},[231,31325,31326],{},[1790,31327,364],{},[238,31329,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31331,31333],{"className":31332,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31334,31336,31339],{"className":31335},[250],[128,31337],{"className":31338,"style":283},[254],[128,31340,364],{"className":31341,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的系数才恰好等于 NDE，一旦存在 ",[128,31344,31346,31364],{"className":31345,"translate":218},[217],[128,31347,31349],{"className":31348},[222],[224,31350,31351],{"xmlns":226},[228,31352,31353,31361],{},[231,31354,31355,31357,31359],{},[1790,31356,364],{},[1793,31358,3331],{},[1790,31360,11188],{},[238,31362,31363],{"encoding":240},"X \\times M",[128,31365,31367,31385],{"className":31366,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31368,31370,31373,31376,31379,31382],{"className":31369},[250],[128,31371],{"className":31372,"style":3365},[254],[128,31374,364],{"className":31375,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,31377],{"className":31378,"style":1828},[269],[128,31380,3331],{"className":31381},[3375],[128,31383],{"className":31384,"style":1828},[269],[128,31386,31388,31391],{"className":31387},[250],[128,31389],{"className":31390,"style":283},[254],[128,31392,11188],{"className":31393,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 交互或 ",[128,31396,31398,31411],{"className":31397,"translate":218},[217],[128,31399,31401],{"className":31400},[222],[224,31402,31403],{"xmlns":226},[228,31404,31405,31409],{},[231,31406,31407],{},[1790,31408,11188],{},[238,31410,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,31412,31414],{"className":31413,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31415,31417,31420],{"className":31416},[250],[128,31418],{"className":31419,"style":283},[254],[128,31421,11188],{"className":31422,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 进入非线性的函数形式，该系数便失去直接效应的解释。",[3038,31425,31427],{"id":31426},"_35-可识别性do-演算后门准则与前门准则","3.5 可识别性：do-演算、后门准则与前门准则",[11,31429,31430,31431,31513,31514,893],{},"在实践中，我们通常只有观测数据（第一层），希望知道某个干预量 ",[128,31432,31434,31465],{"className":31433,"translate":218},[217],[128,31435,31437],{"className":31436},[222],[224,31438,31439],{"xmlns":226},[228,31440,31441,31463],{},[231,31442,31443,31445,31447,31449,31451,31453,31455,31457,31459,31461],{},[1790,31444,1844],{},[1793,31446,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,31448,2276],{},[1793,31450,1916],{},[1790,31452,2438],{},[1790,31454,2441],{},[1793,31456,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,31458,2281],{},[1793,31460,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,31462,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,31464,2452],{"encoding":240},[128,31466,31468,31492],{"className":31467,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31469,31471,31474,31477,31480,31483,31486,31489],{"className":31470},[250],[128,31472],{"className":31473,"style":1870},[254],[128,31475,1844],{"className":31476,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,31478,1848],{"className":31479},[1878],[128,31481,2276],{"className":31482,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,31484],{"className":31485,"style":1945},[269],[128,31487,1916],{"className":31488},[1949],[128,31490],{"className":31491,"style":1945},[269],[128,31493,31495,31498,31501,31504,31507,31510],{"className":31494},[250],[128,31496],{"className":31497,"style":1870},[254],[128,31499,2438],{"className":31500},[259,1815],[128,31502,2441],{"className":31503},[259,1815],[128,31505,1848],{"className":31506},[1878],[128,31508,2281],{"className":31509},[259,1815],[128,31511,2501],{"className":31512},[1894],"（第二层）能否用观测分布中的量表达出来，这一问题称为**可识别性（identifiability）**问题。Pearl 给出了一套完全在图的层面运作的工具：它只需要因果图本身，",[35,31515,31516,31517],{},"不需要知道任何结构方程的具体函数形式 ",[128,31518,31520,31537],{"className":31519,"translate":218},[217],[128,31521,31523],{"className":31522},[222],[224,31524,31525],{"xmlns":226},[228,31526,31527,31535],{},[231,31528,31529],{},[2605,31530,31531,31533],{},[1790,31532,7444],{},[1790,31534,3409],{},[238,31536,11848],{"encoding":240},[128,31538,31540],{"className":31539,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31541,31543,31546],{"className":31542},[250],[128,31544],{"className":31545,"style":6176},[254],[128,31547,31549,31552],{"className":31548},[259],[128,31550,7444],{"className":31551,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,31553,31555],{"className":31554},[2660],[128,31556,31558,31578],{"className":31557},[274,321],[128,31559,31561,31575],{"className":31560},[278],[128,31562,31564],{"className":31563,"style":3460},[282],[128,31565,31566,31569],{"style":11742},[128,31567],{"className":31568,"style":291},[290],[128,31570,31572],{"className":31571},[299,300,301,298],[128,31573,3409],{"className":31574},[259,1815,298],[128,31576,347],{"className":31577},[346],[128,31579,31581],{"className":31580},[278],[128,31582,31584],{"className":31583,"style":2692},[282],[128,31585],{},[11,31587,31588,31589,31693,31694,31722,31723,31751,31752,31876,31877,31905,31906,3760,31950,31978,31979,32007],{},"记 ",[128,31590,31592,31613],{"className":31591,"translate":218},[217],[128,31593,31595],{"className":31594},[222],[224,31596,31597],{"xmlns":226},[228,31598,31599,31611],{},[231,31600,31601],{},[2605,31602,31603,31605],{},[1790,31604,3064],{},[20357,31606,31607,31609],{"accent":246},[1790,31608,364],{},[1793,31610,20363],{"stretchy":246},[238,31612,20366],{"encoding":240},[128,31614,31616],{"className":31615,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31617,31619,31622],{"className":31618},[250],[128,31620],{"className":31621,"style":20376},[254],[128,31623,31625,31628],{"className":31624},[259],[128,31626,3064],{"className":31627},[259,1815],[128,31629,31631],{"className":31630},[2660],[128,31632,31634,31685],{"className":31633},[274,321],[128,31635,31637,31682],{"className":31636},[278],[128,31638,31640],{"className":31639,"style":20395},[282],[128,31641,31642,31645],{"style":20398},[128,31643],{"className":31644,"style":335},[290],[128,31646,31648],{"className":31647},[299,300,301,298],[128,31649,31651],{"className":31650},[259,298],[128,31652,31654],{"className":31653},[259,20411,298],[128,31655,31657],{"className":31656},[274],[128,31658,31660],{"className":31659},[278],[128,31661,31663,31674],{"className":31662,"style":20421},[282],[128,31664,31665,31668],{"style":20424},[128,31666],{"className":31667,"style":335},[290],[128,31669,31671],{"className":31670},[259,298],[128,31672,364],{"className":31673,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,31675,31676,31679],{"style":20436},[128,31677],{"className":31678,"style":335},[290],[128,31680],{"className":31681,"style":20444},[20443,298],[128,31683,347],{"className":31684},[346],[128,31686,31688],{"className":31687},[278],[128,31689,31691],{"className":31690,"style":20454},[282],[128,31692],{}," 为从 ",[128,31695,31697,31710],{"className":31696,"translate":218},[217],[128,31698,31700],{"className":31699},[222],[224,31701,31702],{"xmlns":226},[228,31703,31704,31708],{},[231,31705,31706],{},[1790,31707,3064],{},[238,31709,3064],{"encoding":240},[128,31711,31713],{"className":31712,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31714,31716,31719],{"className":31715},[250],[128,31717],{"className":31718,"style":283},[254],[128,31720,3064],{"className":31721},[259,1815]," 中删去所有指向 ",[128,31724,31726,31739],{"className":31725,"translate":218},[217],[128,31727,31729],{"className":31728},[222],[224,31730,31731],{"xmlns":226},[228,31732,31733,31737],{},[231,31734,31735],{},[1790,31736,364],{},[238,31738,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31740,31742],{"className":31741,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31743,31745,31748],{"className":31744},[250],[128,31746],{"className":31747,"style":283},[254],[128,31749,364],{"className":31750,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的边所得的图，",[128,31753,31755,31778],{"className":31754,"translate":218},[217],[128,31756,31758],{"className":31757},[222],[224,31759,31760],{"xmlns":226},[228,31761,31762,31775],{},[231,31763,31764],{},[2605,31765,31766,31768],{},[1790,31767,3064],{},[31769,31770,31771,31773],"munder",{"accentunder":246},[1790,31772,364],{},[1793,31774,20363],{"stretchy":246},[238,31776,31777],{"encoding":240},"G_{\\underline{X}}",[128,31779,31781],{"className":31780,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31782,31784,31788],{"className":31783},[250],[128,31785],{"className":31786,"style":31787},[254],"height:1.0048em;vertical-align:-0.3215em;",[128,31789,31791,31794],{"className":31790},[259],[128,31792,3064],{"className":31793},[259,1815],[128,31795,31797],{"className":31796},[2660],[128,31798,31800,31867],{"className":31799},[274,321],[128,31801,31803,31864],{"className":31802},[278],[128,31804,31806],{"className":31805,"style":9078},[282],[128,31807,31809,31812],{"style":31808},"top:-2.85em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,31810],{"className":31811,"style":335},[290],[128,31813,31815],{"className":31814},[299,300,301,298],[128,31816,31818],{"className":31817},[259,298],[128,31819,31822],{"className":31820},[259,31821,298],"underline",[128,31823,31825,31855],{"className":31824},[274,321],[128,31826,31828,31852],{"className":31827},[278],[128,31829,31831,31841],{"className":31830,"style":283},[282],[128,31832,31834,31837],{"style":31833},"top:-2.804em;",[128,31835],{"className":31836,"style":335},[290],[128,31838],{"className":31839,"style":20444},[31840,298],"underline-line",[128,31842,31843,31846],{"style":20424},[128,31844],{"className":31845,"style":335},[290],[128,31847,31849],{"className":31848},[259,298],[128,31850,364],{"className":31851,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,31853,347],{"className":31854},[346],[128,31856,31858],{"className":31857},[278],[128,31859,31862],{"className":31860,"style":31861},[282],"height:0.245em;",[128,31863],{},[128,31865,347],{"className":31866},[346],[128,31868,31870],{"className":31869},[278],[128,31871,31874],{"className":31872,"style":31873},[282],"height:0.3215em;",[128,31875],{}," 为删去所有从 ",[128,31878,31880,31893],{"className":31879,"translate":218},[217],[128,31881,31883],{"className":31882},[222],[224,31884,31885],{"xmlns":226},[228,31886,31887,31891],{},[231,31888,31889],{},[1790,31890,364],{},[238,31892,364],{"encoding":240},[128,31894,31896],{"className":31895,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31897,31899,31902],{"className":31898},[250],[128,31900],{"className":31901,"style":283},[254],[128,31903,364],{"className":31904,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 出发的边所得的图，并记 ",[128,31907,31909,31929],{"className":31908,"translate":218},[217],[128,31910,31912],{"className":31911},[222],[224,31913,31914],{"xmlns":226},[228,31915,31916,31926],{},[231,31917,31918,31920,31922,31924],{},[1790,31919,5935],{},[1793,31921,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,31923,5521],{},[1793,31925,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,31927,31928],{"encoding":240},"Z(W)",[128,31930,31932],{"className":31931,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31933,31935,31938,31941,31944,31947],{"className":31934},[250],[128,31936],{"className":31937,"style":1870},[254],[128,31939,5935],{"className":31940,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,31942,1848],{"className":31943},[1878],[128,31945,5521],{"className":31946,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,31948,1857],{"className":31949},[1894],[128,31951,31953,31966],{"className":31952,"translate":218},[217],[128,31954,31956],{"className":31955},[222],[224,31957,31958],{"xmlns":226},[228,31959,31960,31964],{},[231,31961,31962],{},[1790,31963,5935],{},[238,31965,5935],{"encoding":240},[128,31967,31969],{"className":31968,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31970,31972,31975],{"className":31971},[250],[128,31973],{"className":31974,"style":283},[254],[128,31976,5935],{"className":31977,"style":5964},[259,1815]," 中不属于 ",[128,31980,31982,31995],{"className":31981,"translate":218},[217],[128,31983,31985],{"className":31984},[222],[224,31986,31987],{"xmlns":226},[228,31988,31989,31993],{},[231,31990,31991],{},[1790,31992,5521],{},[238,31994,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,31996,31998],{"className":31997,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,31999,32001,32004],{"className":32000},[250],[128,32002],{"className":32003,"style":283},[254],[128,32005,5521],{"className":32006,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 的后代的节点子集，则：",[64,32009,32010,32084],{},[11,32011,32012,32015,32016,2247],{},[35,32013,32014],{},"定理 3.2（do-演算三规则）"," 对任意互不相交的变量集合 ",[128,32017,32019,32045],{"className":32018,"translate":218},[217],[128,32020,32022],{"className":32021},[222],[224,32023,32024],{"xmlns":226},[228,32025,32026,32042],{},[231,32027,32028,32030,32032,32034,32036,32038,32040],{},[1790,32029,364],{},[1793,32031,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,32033,1798],{},[1793,32035,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,32037,5935],{},[1793,32039,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,32041,5521],{},[238,32043,32044],{"encoding":240},"X, Y, Z, W",[128,32046,32048],{"className":32047,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,32049,32051,32054,32057,32060,32063,32066,32069,32072,32075,32078,32081],{"className":32050},[250],[128,32052],{"className":32053,"style":1811},[254],[128,32055,364],{"className":32056,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,32058,1795],{"className":32059},[1820],[128,32061],{"className":32062,"style":1824},[269],[128,32064,1798],{"className":32065,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,32067,1795],{"className":32068},[1820],[128,32070],{"className":32071,"style":1824},[269],[128,32073,5935],{"className":32074,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,32076,1795],{"className":32077},[1820],[128,32079],{"className":32080,"style":1824},[269],[128,32082,5521],{"className":32083,"style":1874},[259,1815],[2249,32085,32086,32542,33079],{},[2252,32087,32088,9656,32091,32337,32338],{},[35,32089,32090],{},"规则 1（插入 \u002F 删除观测）",[128,32092,32094,32144],{"className":32093,"translate":218},[217],[128,32095,32097],{"className":32096},[222],[224,32098,32099],{"xmlns":226},[228,32100,32101,32141],{},[231,32102,32103,32105,32107,32109,32111,32113,32115,32117,32119,32121,32123,32125,32127],{},[1793,32104,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,32106,1798],{},[1793,32108,1982],{},[234,32110,1985],{},[234,32112,1985],{},[234,32114,1985],{},[1793,32116,1982],{},[1790,32118,5935],{},[1793,32120,1916],{},[1790,32122,364],{},[1793,32124,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,32126,5521],{},[2605,32128,32129,32131],{},[1793,32130,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,32132,32133,32135],{},[1790,32134,3064],{},[20357,32136,32137,32139],{"accent":246},[1790,32138,364],{},[1793,32140,20363],{"stretchy":246},[238,32142,32143],{"encoding":240},"(Y \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid X, 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删除干预）",[128,33085,33087,33153],{"className":33086,"translate":218},[217],[128,33088,33090],{"className":33089},[222],[224,33091,33092],{"xmlns":226},[228,33093,33094,33150],{},[231,33095,33096,33098,33100,33102,33104,33106,33108,33110,33112,33114,33116,33118,33120],{},[1793,33097,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,33099,1798],{},[1793,33101,1982],{},[234,33103,1985],{},[234,33105,1985],{},[234,33107,1985],{},[1793,33109,1982],{},[1790,33111,5935],{},[1793,33113,1916],{},[1790,33115,364],{},[1793,33117,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,33119,5521],{},[2605,33121,33122,33124],{},[1793,33123,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,33125,33126,33128],{},[1790,33127,3064],{},[231,33129,33130,33136],{},[20357,33131,33132,33134],{"accent":246},[1790,33133,364],{},[1793,33135,20363],{"stretchy":246},[20357,33137,33138,33148],{"accent":246},[231,33139,33140,33142,33144,33146],{},[1790,33141,5935],{},[1793,33143,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,33145,5521],{},[1793,33147,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,33149,20363],{"stretchy":246},[238,33151,33152],{"encoding":240},"(Y \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp Z \\mid X, W)_{G_{\\overline{X}\\overline{Z(W)}}}",[128,33154,33156,33183,33195,33213],{"className":33155,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33157,33159,33162,33165,33168,33171,33174,33177,33180],{"className":33158},[250],[128,33160],{"className":33161,"style":1870},[254],[128,33163,1848],{"className":33164},[1878],[128,33166,1798],{"className":33167,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,33169],{"className":33170,"style":1945},[269],[128,33172,1982],{"className":33173},[1949],[128,33175],{"className":33176,"style":317},[269],[128,33178],{"className":33179,"style":317},[269],[128,33181],{"className":33182,"style":317},[269],[128,33184,33186,33189,33192],{"className":33185},[250],[128,33187],{"className":33188,"style":2006},[254],[128,33190,1982],{"className":33191},[1949],[128,33193],{"className":33194,"style":1945},[269],[128,33196,33198,33201,33204,33207,33210],{"className":33197},[250],[128,33199],{"className":33200,"style":1870},[254],[128,33202,5935],{"className":33203,"style":5964},[259,1815],[128,33205],{"className":33206,"style":1945},[269],[128,33208,1916],{"className":33209},[1949],[128,33211],{"className":33212,"style":1945},[269],[128,33214,33216,33220,33223,33226,33229,33232],{"className":33215},[250],[128,33217],{"className":33218,"style":33219},[254],"height:1.2811em;vertical-align:-0.5311em;",[128,33221,364],{"className":33222,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,33224,1795],{"className":33225},[1820],[128,33227],{"className":33228,"style":1824},[269],[128,33230,5521],{"className":33231,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,33233,33235,33238],{"className":33234},[1894],[128,33236,1857],{"className":33237},[1894],[128,33239,33241],{"className":33240},[2660],[128,33242,33244,33391],{"className":33243},[274,321],[128,33245,33247,33388],{"className":33246},[278],[128,33248,33250],{"className":33249,"style":9078},[282],[128,33251,33252,33255],{"style":31808},[128,33253],{"className":33254,"style":335},[290],[128,33256,33258],{"className":33257},[299,300,301,298],[128,33259,33261],{"className":33260},[259,298],[128,33262,33264,33267],{"className":33263},[259,298],[128,33265,3064],{"className":33266},[259,1815,298],[128,33268,33270],{"className":33269},[2660],[128,33271,33273,33379],{"className":33272},[274,321],[128,33274,33276,33376],{"className":33275},[278],[128,33277,33279],{"className":33278,"style":20395},[282],[128,33280,33282,33285],{"style":33281},"top:-2.6341em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.0714em;",[128,33283],{"className":33284,"style":335},[290],[128,33286,33288],{"className":33287},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,33289,33291,33322],{"className":33290},[259,298],[128,33292,33294],{"className":33293},[259,20411,298],[128,33295,33297],{"className":33296},[274],[128,33298,33300],{"className":33299},[278],[128,33301,33303,33314],{"className":33302,"style":20421},[282],[128,33304,33305,33308],{"style":20424},[128,33306],{"className":33307,"style":335},[290],[128,33309,33311],{"className":33310},[259,298],[128,33312,364],{"className":33313,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,33315,33316,33319],{"style":20436},[128,33317],{"className":33318,"style":335},[290],[128,33320],{"className":33321,"style":20444},[20443,298],[128,33323,33325],{"className":33324},[259,20411,298],[128,33326,33328,33367],{"className":33327},[274,321],[128,33329,33331,33364],{"className":33330},[278],[128,33332,33335,33355],{"className":33333,"style":33334},[282],"height:0.995em;",[128,33336,33337,33340],{"style":20424},[128,33338],{"className":33339,"style":335},[290],[128,33341,33343,33346,33349,33352],{"className":33342},[259,298],[128,33344,5935],{"className":33345,"style":5964},[259,1815,298],[128,33347,1848],{"className":33348},[1878,298],[128,33350,5521],{"className":33351,"style":1874},[259,1815,298],[128,33353,1857],{"className":33354},[1894,298],[128,33356,33358,33361],{"style":33357},"top:-3.897em;",[128,33359],{"className":33360,"style":335},[290],[128,33362],{"className":33363,"style":20444},[20443,298],[128,33365,347],{"className":33366},[346],[128,33368,33370],{"className":33369},[278],[128,33371,33374],{"className":33372,"style":33373},[282],"height:0.25em;",[128,33375],{},[128,33377,347],{"className":33378},[346],[128,33380,33382],{"className":33381},[278],[128,33383,33386],{"className":33384,"style":33385},[282],"height:0.5445em;",[128,33387],{},[128,33389,347],{"className":33390},[346],[128,33392,33394],{"className":33393},[278],[128,33395,33398],{"className":33396,"style":33397},[282],"height:0.5311em;",[128,33399],{},[128,33401,33403,33477],{"className":33402,"translate":218},[217],[128,33404,33406],{"className":33405},[222],[224,33407,33408],{"xmlns":226},[228,33409,33410,33474],{},[231,33411,33412,33414,33416,33418,33420,33422,33424,33426,33428,33430,33432,33434,33436,33438,33440,33442,33444,33446,33448,33450,33452,33454,33456,33458,33460,33462,33464,33466,33468,33470,33472],{},[1790,33413,1844],{},[1793,33415,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,33417,2276],{},[1793,33419,1916],{},[1790,33421,2438],{},[1790,33423,2441],{},[1793,33425,1848],{"stretchy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\\mid do(x), do(z), w) = P(y \\mid do(x), w)",[128,33478,33480,33504,33567,33591],{"className":33479,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33481,33483,33486,33489,33492,33495,33498,33501],{"className":33482},[250],[128,33484],{"className":33485,"style":1870},[254],[128,33487,1844],{"className":33488,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,33490,1848],{"className":33491},[1878],[128,33493,2276],{"className":33494,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,33496],{"className":33497,"style":1945},[269],[128,33499,1916],{"className":33500},[1949],[128,33502],{"className":33503,"style":1945},[269],[128,33505,33507,33510,33513,33516,33519,33522,33525,33528,33531,33534,33537,33540,33543,33546,33549,33552,33555,33558,33561,33564],{"className":33506},[250],[128,33508],{"className":33509,"style":1870},[254],[128,33511,2438],{"className":33512},[259,1815],[128,33514,2441],{"className":33515},[259,1815],[128,33517,1848],{"className":33518},[1878],[128,33520,2281],{"className":33521},[259,1815],[128,33523,1857],{"className":33524},[1894],[128,33526,1795],{"className":33527},[1820],[128,33529],{"className":33530,"style":1824},[269],[128,33532,2438],{"className":33533},[259,1815],[128,33535,2441],{"className":33536},[259,1815],[128,33538,1848],{"className":33539},[1878],[128,33541,7539],{"className":33542,"style":7573},[259,1815],[128,33544,1857],{"className":33545},[1894],[128,33547,1795],{"className":33548},[1820],[128,33550],{"className":33551,"style":1824},[269],[128,33553,30514],{"className":33554,"style":30666},[259,1815],[128,33556,1857],{"className":33557},[1894],[128,33559],{"className":33560,"style":1945},[269],[128,33562,2344],{"className":33563},[1949],[128,33565],{"className":33566,"style":1945},[269],[128,33568,33570,33573,33576,33579,33582,33585,33588],{"className":33569},[250],[128,33571],{"className":33572,"style":1870},[254],[128,33574,1844],{"className":33575,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,33577,1848],{"className":33578},[1878],[128,33580,2276],{"className":33581,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,33583],{"className":33584,"style":1945},[269],[128,33586,1916],{"className":33587},[1949],[128,33589],{"className":33590,"style":1945},[269],[128,33592,33594,33597,33600,33603,33606,33609,33612,33615,33618,33621],{"className":33593},[250],[128,33595],{"className":33596,"style":1870},[254],[128,33598,2438],{"className":33599},[259,1815],[128,33601,2441],{"className":33602},[259,1815],[128,33604,1848],{"className":33605},[1878],[128,33607,2281],{"className":33608},[259,1815],[128,33610,1857],{"className":33611},[1894],[128,33613,1795],{"className":33614},[1820],[128,33616],{"className":33617,"style":1824},[269],[128,33619,30514],{"className":33620,"style":30666},[259,1815],[128,33622,1857],{"className":33623},[1894],[11,33625,33626,33627,33661,33662,33695,33696,33729,33730,33812,33813,33850,33851,33854,33855,33888,33889,33892],{},"三条规则的形态高度一致：每一条都在某个 d-分离判据成立时，把一个含 ",[128,33628,33630,33646],{"className":33629,"translate":218},[217],[128,33631,33633],{"className":33632},[222],[224,33634,33635],{"xmlns":226},[228,33636,33637,33643],{},[231,33638,33639,33641],{},[1790,33640,2438],{},[1790,33642,2441],{},[238,33644,33645],{"encoding":240},"do",[128,33647,33649],{"className":33648,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33650,33652,33655,33658],{"className":33651},[250],[128,33653],{"className":33654,"style":2006},[254],[128,33656,2438],{"className":33657},[259,1815],[128,33659,2441],{"className":33660},[259,1815]," 算子的表达式改写为 ",[128,33663,33665,33680],{"className":33664,"translate":218},[217],[128,33666,33668],{"className":33667},[222],[224,33669,33670],{"xmlns":226},[228,33671,33672,33678],{},[231,33673,33674,33676],{},[1790,33675,2438],{},[1790,33677,2441],{},[238,33679,33645],{"encoding":240},[128,33681,33683],{"className":33682,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33684,33686,33689,33692],{"className":33685},[250],[128,33687],{"className":33688,"style":2006},[254],[128,33690,2438],{"className":33691},[259,1815],[128,33693,2441],{"className":33694},[259,1815]," 算子更少（或不含 ",[128,33697,33699,33714],{"className":33698,"translate":218},[217],[128,33700,33702],{"className":33701},[222],[224,33703,33704],{"xmlns":226},[228,33705,33706,33712],{},[231,33707,33708,33710],{},[1790,33709,2438],{},[1790,33711,2441],{},[238,33713,33645],{"encoding":240},[128,33715,33717],{"className":33716,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33718,33720,33723,33726],{"className":33719},[250],[128,33721],{"className":33722,"style":2006},[254],[128,33724,2438],{"className":33725},[259,1815],[128,33727,2441],{"className":33728},[259,1815],"）的表达式。因此判断 ",[128,33731,33733,33764],{"className":33732,"translate":218},[217],[128,33734,33736],{"className":33735},[222],[224,33737,33738],{"xmlns":226},[228,33739,33740,33762],{},[231,33741,33742,33744,33746,33748,33750,33752,33754,33756,33758,33760],{},[1790,33743,1844],{},[1793,33745,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,33747,2276],{},[1793,33749,1916],{},[1790,33751,2438],{},[1790,33753,2441],{},[1793,33755,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,33757,2281],{},[1793,33759,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,33761,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,33763,2452],{"encoding":240},[128,33765,33767,33791],{"className":33766,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33768,33770,33773,33776,33779,33782,33785,33788],{"className":33769},[250],[128,33771],{"className":33772,"style":1870},[254],[128,33774,1844],{"className":33775,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,33777,1848],{"className":33778},[1878],[128,33780,2276],{"className":33781,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,33783],{"className":33784,"style":1945},[269],[128,33786,1916],{"className":33787},[1949],[128,33789],{"className":33790,"style":1945},[269],[128,33792,33794,33797,33800,33803,33806,33809],{"className":33793},[250],[128,33795],{"className":33796,"style":1870},[254],[128,33798,2438],{"className":33799},[259,1815],[128,33801,2441],{"className":33802},[259,1815],[128,33804,1848],{"className":33805},[1878],[128,33807,2281],{"className":33808},[259,1815],[128,33810,2501],{"className":33811},[1894]," 是否可识别的过程，就是反复应用三条规则、尝试",[35,33814,33815,33816,33849],{},"消去全部 ",[128,33817,33819,33834],{"className":33818,"translate":218},[217],[128,33820,33822],{"className":33821},[222],[224,33823,33824],{"xmlns":226},[228,33825,33826,33832],{},[231,33827,33828,33830],{},[1790,33829,2438],{},[1790,33831,2441],{},[238,33833,33645],{"encoding":240},[128,33835,33837],{"className":33836,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33838,33840,33843,33846],{"className":33839},[250],[128,33841],{"className":33842,"style":2006},[254],[128,33844,2438],{"className":33845},[259,1815],[128,33847,2441],{"className":33848},[259,1815]," 算子","的过程。Shpitser 与 Pearl（2006）进一步证明了这套规则对可识别性是",[35,33852,33853],{},"完备的","：若不存在任何有限次的规则应用序列能把目标量化为不含 ",[128,33856,33858,33873],{"className":33857,"translate":218},[217],[128,33859,33861],{"className":33860},[222],[224,33862,33863],{"xmlns":226},[228,33864,33865,33871],{},[231,33866,33867,33869],{},[1790,33868,2438],{},[1790,33870,2441],{},[238,33872,33645],{"encoding":240},[128,33874,33876],{"className":33875,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33877,33879,33882,33885],{"className":33878},[250],[128,33880],{"className":33881,"style":2006},[254],[128,33883,2438],{"className":33884},[259,1815],[128,33886,2441],{"className":33887},[259,1815]," 的形式，则该量确实不可由观测分布识别。这一点很重要——它为「不可识别」这一否定性结论提供了",[35,33890,33891],{},"证明手段","，而不只是「暂时没想到办法」。",[11,33894,33895],{},"若不想每次都从三条规则出发作推导，可以使用若干直接给出识别公式的充分性准则。其中最重要的一条是后门准则：",[64,33897,33898],{},[11,33899,33900,33903,33904,33932,33933,33961,33962,33990,33991,34019,34020,34061,34062,34090,34091,34321,34322,34350,34351,34354],{},[35,33901,33902],{},"定理 3.3（后门准则，Back-door Criterion）"," 若变量集合 ",[128,33905,33907,33920],{"className":33906,"translate":218},[217],[128,33908,33910],{"className":33909},[222],[224,33911,33912],{"xmlns":226},[228,33913,33914,33918],{},[231,33915,33916],{},[1790,33917,5505],{},[238,33919,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,33921,33923],{"className":33922,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33924,33926,33929],{"className":33925},[250],[128,33927],{"className":33928,"style":283},[254],[128,33930,5505],{"className":33931,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 满足：(i) ",[128,33934,33936,33949],{"className":33935,"translate":218},[217],[128,33937,33939],{"className":33938},[222],[224,33940,33941],{"xmlns":226},[228,33942,33943,33947],{},[231,33944,33945],{},[1790,33946,5505],{},[238,33948,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,33950,33952],{"className":33951,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33953,33955,33958],{"className":33954},[250],[128,33956],{"className":33957,"style":283},[254],[128,33959,5505],{"className":33960,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 中不包含 ",[128,33963,33965,33978],{"className":33964,"translate":218},[217],[128,33966,33968],{"className":33967},[222],[224,33969,33970],{"xmlns":226},[228,33971,33972,33976],{},[231,33973,33974],{},[1790,33975,364],{},[238,33977,364],{"encoding":240},[128,33979,33981],{"className":33980,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,33982,33984,33987],{"className":33983},[250],[128,33985],{"className":33986,"style":283},[254],[128,33988,364],{"className":33989,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的任何后代；(ii) ",[128,33992,33994,34007],{"className":33993,"translate":218},[217],[128,33995,33997],{"className":33996},[222],[224,33998,33999],{"xmlns":226},[228,34000,34001,34005],{},[231,34002,34003],{},[1790,34004,5505],{},[238,34006,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,34008,34010],{"className":34009,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34011,34013,34016],{"className":34012},[250],[128,34014],{"className":34015,"style":283},[254],[128,34017,5505],{"className":34018,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 阻断了 ",[128,34021,34023,34040],{"className":34022,"translate":218},[217],[128,34024,34026],{"className":34025},[222],[224,34027,34028],{"xmlns":226},[228,34029,34030,34038],{},[231,34031,34032,34034,34036],{},[1790,34033,364],{},[1793,34035,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,34037,1798],{},[238,34039,1801],{"encoding":240},[128,34041,34043],{"className":34042,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34044,34046,34049,34052,34055,34058],{"className":34045},[250],[128,34047],{"className":34048,"style":1811},[254],[128,34050,364],{"className":34051,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,34053,1795],{"className":34054},[1820],[128,34056],{"className":34057,"style":1824},[269],[128,34059,1798],{"className":34060,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间所有以指向 ",[128,34063,34065,34078],{"className":34064,"translate":218},[217],[128,34066,34068],{"className":34067},[222],[224,34069,34070],{"xmlns":226},[228,34071,34072,34076],{},[231,34073,34074],{},[1790,34075,364],{},[238,34077,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34079,34081],{"className":34080,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34082,34084,34087],{"className":34083},[250],[128,34085],{"className":34086,"style":283},[254],[128,34088,364],{"className":34089,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的边起始的路径（「后门路径」），则\n",[128,34092,34094,34161],{"className":34093,"translate":218},[217],[128,34095,34097],{"className":34096},[222],[224,34098,34099],{"xmlns":226},[228,34100,34101,34158],{},[231,34102,34103,34105,34107,34109,34111,34113,34115,34117,34119,34121,34123,34125,34131,34133,34135,34137,34139,34141,34143,34145,34147,34150,34152,34154,34156],{},[1790,34104,1844],{},[1793,34106,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34108,2276],{},[1793,34110,1916],{},[1790,34112,2438],{},[1790,34114,2441],{},[1793,34116,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34118,2281],{},[1793,34120,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,34122,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,34124,2344],{},[2605,34126,34127,34129],{},[1793,34128,22140],{},[1790,34130,22143],{},[1790,34132,1844],{},[1793,34134,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34136,2276],{},[1793,34138,1916],{},[1790,34140,2281],{},[1793,34142,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,34144,22143],{},[1793,34146,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[234,34148,34149],{}," ",[1790,34151,1844],{},[1793,34153,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34155,22143],{},[1793,34157,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,34159,34160],{"encoding":240},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = \\sum_s P(y \\mid x, s) \\, P(s)",[128,34162,34164,34188,34218,34285],{"className":34163,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34165,34167,34170,34173,34176,34179,34182,34185],{"className":34166},[250],[128,34168],{"className":34169,"style":1870},[254],[128,34171,1844],{"className":34172,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,34174,1848],{"className":34175},[1878],[128,34177,2276],{"className":34178,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,34180],{"className":34181,"style":1945},[269],[128,34183,1916],{"className":34184},[1949],[128,34186],{"className":34187,"style":1945},[269],[128,34189,34191,34194,34197,34200,34203,34206,34209,34212,34215],{"className":34190},[250],[128,34192],{"className":34193,"style":1870},[254],[128,34195,2438],{"className":34196},[259,1815],[128,34198,2441],{"className":34199},[259,1815],[128,34201,1848],{"className":34202},[1878],[128,34204,2281],{"className":34205},[259,1815],[128,34207,2501],{"className":34208},[1894],[128,34210],{"className":34211,"style":1945},[269],[128,34213,2344],{"className":34214},[1949],[128,34216],{"className":34217,"style":1945},[269],[128,34219,34221,34224,34264,34267,34270,34273,34276,34279,34282],{"className":34220},[250],[128,34222],{"className":34223,"style":22318},[254],[128,34225,34227,34230],{"className":34226},[14490],[128,34228,22140],{"className":34229,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,34231,34233],{"className":34232},[2660],[128,34234,34236,34256],{"className":34235},[274,321],[128,34237,34239,34253],{"className":34238},[278],[128,34240,34242],{"className":34241,"style":22337},[282],[128,34243,34244,34247],{"style":14512},[128,34245],{"className":34246,"style":291},[290],[128,34248,34250],{"className":34249},[299,300,301,298],[128,34251,22143],{"className":34252},[259,1815,298],[128,34254,347],{"className":34255},[346],[128,34257,34259],{"className":34258},[278],[128,34260,34262],{"className":34261,"style":14552},[282],[128,34263],{},[128,34265],{"className":34266,"style":1824},[269],[128,34268,1844],{"className":34269,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,34271,1848],{"className":34272},[1878],[128,34274,2276],{"className":34275,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,34277],{"className":34278,"style":1945},[269],[128,34280,1916],{"className":34281},[1949],[128,34283],{"className":34284,"style":1945},[269],[128,34286,34288,34291,34294,34297,34300,34303,34306,34309,34312,34315,34318],{"className":34287},[250],[128,34289],{"className":34290,"style":1870},[254],[128,34292,2281],{"className":34293},[259,1815],[128,34295,1795],{"className":34296},[1820],[128,34298],{"className":34299,"style":1824},[269],[128,34301,22143],{"className":34302},[259,1815],[128,34304,1857],{"className":34305},[1894],[128,34307],{"className":34308,"style":1824},[269],[128,34310,1844],{"className":34311,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,34313,1848],{"className":34314},[1878],[128,34316,22143],{"className":34317},[259,1815],[128,34319,1857],{"className":34320},[1894],"\n即干预效果可以通过对满足后门准则的变量集合 ",[128,34323,34325,34338],{"className":34324,"translate":218},[217],[128,34326,34328],{"className":34327},[222],[224,34329,34330],{"xmlns":226},[228,34331,34332,34336],{},[231,34333,34334],{},[1790,34335,5505],{},[238,34337,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,34339,34341],{"className":34340,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34342,34344,34347],{"className":34343},[250],[128,34345],{"className":34346,"style":283},[254],[128,34348,5505],{"className":34349,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 做",[35,34352,34353],{},"分层加权平均（standardization）","，完全由观测数据估计得出，而无需真正实施干预、进行随机对照实验。",[11,34356,34357,34358,34386,34387,34415,34416,2173,34444,34472],{},"条件 (i) 的必要性，正是第一部分对撞结构那一结论的直接后果：一旦把 ",[128,34359,34361,34374],{"className":34360,"translate":218},[217],[128,34362,34364],{"className":34363},[222],[224,34365,34366],{"xmlns":226},[228,34367,34368,34372],{},[231,34369,34370],{},[1790,34371,364],{},[238,34373,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34375,34377],{"className":34376,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34378,34380,34383],{"className":34379},[250],[128,34381],{"className":34382,"style":283},[254],[128,34384,364],{"className":34385,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的后代放进 ",[128,34388,34390,34403],{"className":34389,"translate":218},[217],[128,34391,34393],{"className":34392},[222],[224,34394,34395],{"xmlns":226},[228,34396,34397,34401],{},[231,34398,34399],{},[1790,34400,5505],{},[238,34402,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,34404,34406],{"className":34405,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34407,34409,34412],{"className":34408},[250],[128,34410],{"className":34411,"style":283},[254],[128,34413,5505],{"className":34414,"style":3123},[259,1815],"，就可能在 ",[128,34417,34419,34432],{"className":34418,"translate":218},[217],[128,34420,34422],{"className":34421},[222],[224,34423,34424],{"xmlns":226},[228,34425,34426,34430],{},[231,34427,34428],{},[1790,34429,364],{},[238,34431,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34433,34435],{"className":34434,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34436,34438,34441],{"className":34437},[250],[128,34439],{"className":34440,"style":283},[254],[128,34442,364],{"className":34443,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,34445,34447,34460],{"className":34446,"translate":218},[217],[128,34448,34450],{"className":34449},[222],[224,34451,34452],{"xmlns":226},[228,34453,34454,34458],{},[231,34455,34456],{},[1790,34457,1798],{},[238,34459,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,34461,34463],{"className":34462,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34464,34466,34469],{"className":34465},[250],[128,34467],{"className":34468,"style":283},[254],[128,34470,1798],{"className":34471,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间人为打开一条对撞路径，制造出并不存在的关联。",[11,34474,34475,34476,34479,34480,34483],{},"不过后门准则有一个明显的局限：它要求所有混杂变量",[35,34477,34478],{},"都被观测到、且可以被条件化","。而在现实中，这一要求经常落空。以下这条准则则可以在",[35,34481,34482],{},"存在未观测混杂","的情形下绕过这一困难：",[64,34485,34486],{},[11,34487,34488,5484,34491,33932,34519,34547,34548,34576,34577,3831,34605,34607,34608,6417,34636,34664,34665,34693,34694,4082,34722,34750,34751,34779,34780],{},[35,34489,34490],{},"定理 3.4（前门准则，Front-door Criterion）",[128,34492,34494,34507],{"className":34493,"translate":218},[217],[128,34495,34497],{"className":34496},[222],[224,34498,34499],{"xmlns":226},[228,34500,34501,34505],{},[231,34502,34503],{},[1790,34504,11188],{},[238,34506,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,34508,34510],{"className":34509,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34511,34513,34516],{"className":34512},[250],[128,34514],{"className":34515,"style":283},[254],[128,34517,11188],{"className":34518,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,34520,34522,34535],{"className":34521,"translate":218},[217],[128,34523,34525],{"className":34524},[222],[224,34526,34527],{"xmlns":226},[228,34528,34529,34533],{},[231,34530,34531],{},[1790,34532,11188],{},[238,34534,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,34536,34538],{"className":34537,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34539,34541,34544],{"className":34540},[250],[128,34542],{"className":34543,"style":283},[254],[128,34545,11188],{"className":34546,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 阻断了所有从 ",[128,34549,34551,34564],{"className":34550,"translate":218},[217],[128,34552,34554],{"className":34553},[222],[224,34555,34556],{"xmlns":226},[228,34557,34558,34562],{},[231,34559,34560],{},[1790,34561,364],{},[238,34563,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34565,34567],{"className":34566,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34568,34570,34573],{"className":34569},[250],[128,34571],{"className":34572,"style":283},[254],[128,34574,364],{"className":34575,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 指向 ",[128,34578,34580,34593],{"className":34579,"translate":218},[217],[128,34581,34583],{"className":34582},[222],[224,34584,34585],{"xmlns":226},[228,34586,34587,34591],{},[231,34588,34589],{},[1790,34590,1798],{},[238,34592,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,34594,34596],{"className":34595,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34597,34599,34602],{"className":34598},[250],[128,34600],{"className":34601,"style":283},[254],[128,34603,1798],{"className":34604,"style":1828},[259,1815],[35,34606,4689],{},"（即 ",[128,34609,34611,34624],{"className":34610,"translate":218},[217],[128,34612,34614],{"className":34613},[222],[224,34615,34616],{"xmlns":226},[228,34617,34618,34622],{},[231,34619,34620],{},[1790,34621,364],{},[238,34623,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34625,34627],{"className":34626,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34628,34630,34633],{"className":34629},[250],[128,34631],{"className":34632,"style":283},[254],[128,34634,364],{"className":34635,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,34637,34639,34652],{"className":34638,"translate":218},[217],[128,34640,34642],{"className":34641},[222],[224,34643,34644],{"xmlns":226},[228,34645,34646,34650],{},[231,34647,34648],{},[1790,34649,1798],{},[238,34651,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,34653,34655],{"className":34654,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34656,34658,34661],{"className":34657},[250],[128,34659],{"className":34660,"style":283},[254],[128,34662,1798],{"className":34663,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的全部因果影响都经过 ",[128,34666,34668,34681],{"className":34667,"translate":218},[217],[128,34669,34671],{"className":34670},[222],[224,34672,34673],{"xmlns":226},[228,34674,34675,34679],{},[231,34676,34677],{},[1790,34678,11188],{},[238,34680,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,34682,34684],{"className":34683,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34685,34687,34690],{"className":34686},[250],[128,34688],{"className":34689,"style":283},[254],[128,34691,11188],{"className":34692,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 传送）；(ii) 不存在从 ",[128,34695,34697,34710],{"className":34696,"translate":218},[217],[128,34698,34700],{"className":34699},[222],[224,34701,34702],{"xmlns":226},[228,34703,34704,34708],{},[231,34705,34706],{},[1790,34707,11188],{},[238,34709,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,34711,34713],{"className":34712,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34714,34716,34719],{"className":34715},[250],[128,34717],{"className":34718,"style":283},[254],[128,34720,11188],{"className":34721,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,34723,34725,34738],{"className":34724,"translate":218},[217],[128,34726,34728],{"className":34727},[222],[224,34729,34730],{"xmlns":226},[228,34731,34732,34736],{},[231,34733,34734],{},[1790,34735,1798],{},[238,34737,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,34739,34741],{"className":34740,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34742,34744,34747],{"className":34743},[250],[128,34745],{"className":34746,"style":283},[254],[128,34748,1798],{"className":34749,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的、未被 ",[128,34752,34754,34767],{"className":34753,"translate":218},[217],[128,34755,34757],{"className":34756},[222],[224,34758,34759],{"xmlns":226},[228,34760,34761,34765],{},[231,34762,34763],{},[1790,34764,364],{},[238,34766,364],{"encoding":240},[128,34768,34770],{"className":34769,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34771,34773,34776],{"className":34772},[250],[128,34774],{"className":34775,"style":283},[254],[128,34777,364],{"className":34778,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 阻断的后门路径。则\n",[128,34781,34783,34877],{"className":34782,"translate":218},[217],[128,34784,34786],{"className":34785},[222],[224,34787,34788],{"xmlns":226},[228,34789,34790,34874],{},[231,34791,34792,34794,34796,34798,34800,34802,34804,34806,34808,34810,34812,34814,34820,34822,34824,34826,34828,34830,34832,34842,34844,34846,34848,34850,34852,34854,34860,34862,34864,34866,34872],{},[1790,34793,1844],{},[1793,34795,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34797,2276],{},[1793,34799,1916],{},[1790,34801,2438],{},[1790,34803,2441],{},[1793,34805,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34807,2281],{},[1793,34809,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,34811,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,34813,2344],{},[2605,34815,34816,34818],{},[1793,34817,22140],{},[1790,34819,11330],{},[1790,34821,1844],{},[1793,34823,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34825,11330],{},[1793,34827,1916],{},[1790,34829,2281],{},[1793,34831,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,34833,34834,34836],{},[1793,34835,22140],{},[2614,34837,34838,34840],{},[1790,34839,2281],{},[1793,34841,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1790,34843,1844],{},[1793,34845,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34847,2276],{},[1793,34849,1916],{},[1790,34851,11330],{},[1793,34853,1795],{"separator":246},[2614,34855,34856,34858],{},[1790,34857,2281],{},[1793,34859,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,34861,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,34863,1844],{},[1793,34865,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2614,34867,34868,34870],{},[1790,34869,2281],{},[1793,34871,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,34873,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,34875,34876],{"encoding":240},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = \\sum_m P(m \\mid x) \\sum_{x'} P(y \\mid m, x') P(x')",[128,34878,34880,34904,34934,35001,35111],{"className":34879,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,34881,34883,34886,34889,34892,34895,34898,34901],{"className":34882},[250],[128,34884],{"className":34885,"style":1870},[254],[128,34887,1844],{"className":34888,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,34890,1848],{"className":34891},[1878],[128,34893,2276],{"className":34894,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,34896],{"className":34897,"style":1945},[269],[128,34899,1916],{"className":34900},[1949],[128,34902],{"className":34903,"style":1945},[269],[128,34905,34907,34910,34913,34916,34919,34922,34925,34928,34931],{"className":34906},[250],[128,34908],{"className":34909,"style":1870},[254],[128,34911,2438],{"className":34912},[259,1815],[128,34914,2441],{"className":34915},[259,1815],[128,34917,1848],{"className":34918},[1878],[128,34920,2281],{"className":34921},[259,1815],[128,34923,2501],{"className":34924},[1894],[128,34926],{"className":34927,"style":1945},[269],[128,34929,2344],{"className":34930},[1949],[128,34932],{"className":34933,"style":1945},[269],[128,34935,34937,34940,34980,34983,34986,34989,34992,34995,34998],{"className":34936},[250],[128,34938],{"className":34939,"style":22318},[254],[128,34941,34943,34946],{"className":34942},[14490],[128,34944,22140],{"className":34945,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,34947,34949],{"className":34948},[2660],[128,34950,34952,34972],{"className":34951},[274,321],[128,34953,34955,34969],{"className":34954},[278],[128,34956,34958],{"className":34957,"style":22337},[282],[128,34959,34960,34963],{"style":14512},[128,34961],{"className":34962,"style":291},[290],[128,34964,34966],{"className":34965},[299,300,301,298],[128,34967,11330],{"className":34968},[259,1815,298],[128,34970,347],{"className":34971},[346],[128,34973,34975],{"className":34974},[278],[128,34976,34978],{"className":34977,"style":14552},[282],[128,34979],{},[128,34981],{"className":34982,"style":1824},[269],[128,34984,1844],{"className":34985,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,34987,1848],{"className":34988},[1878],[128,34990,11330],{"className":34991},[259,1815],[128,34993],{"className":34994,"style":1945},[269],[128,34996,1916],{"className":34997},[1949],[128,34999],{"className":35000,"style":1945},[269],[128,35002,35004,35007,35010,35013,35016,35090,35093,35096,35099,35102,35105,35108],{"className":35003},[250],[128,35005],{"className":35006,"style":22318},[254],[128,35008,2281],{"className":35009},[259,1815],[128,35011,1857],{"className":35012},[1894],[128,35014],{"className":35015,"style":1824},[269],[128,35017,35019,35022],{"className":35018},[14490],[128,35020,22140],{"className":35021,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,35023,35025],{"className":35024},[2660],[128,35026,35028,35082],{"className":35027},[274,321],[128,35029,35031,35079],{"className":35030},[278],[128,35032,35035],{"className":35033,"style":35034},[282],"height:0.1783em;",[128,35036,35037,35040],{"style":14512},[128,35038],{"className":35039,"style":291},[290],[128,35041,35043],{"className":35042},[299,300,301,298],[128,35044,35046],{"className":35045},[259,298],[128,35047,35049,35052],{"className":35048},[259,298],[128,35050,2281],{"className":35051},[259,1815,298],[128,35053,35055],{"className":35054},[2660],[128,35056,35058],{"className":35057},[274],[128,35059,35061],{"className":35060},[278],[128,35062,35065],{"className":35063,"style":35064},[282],"height:0.6828em;",[128,35066,35067,35070],{"style":28286},[128,35068],{"className":35069,"style":20135},[290],[128,35071,35073],{"className":35072},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,35074,35076],{"className":35075},[259,298],[128,35077,2622],{"className":35078},[259,298],[128,35080,347],{"className":35081},[346],[128,35083,35085],{"className":35084},[278],[128,35086,35088],{"className":35087,"style":14552},[282],[128,35089],{},[128,35091],{"className":35092,"style":1824},[269],[128,35094,1844],{"className":35095,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,35097,1848],{"className":35098},[1878],[128,35100,2276],{"className":35101,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,35103],{"className":35104,"style":1945},[269],[128,35106,1916],{"className":35107},[1949],[128,35109],{"className":35110,"style":1945},[269],[128,35112,35114,35117,35120,35123,35126,35158,35161,35164,35167,35199],{"className":35113},[250],[128,35115],{"className":35116,"style":2710},[254],[128,35118,11330],{"className":35119},[259,1815],[128,35121,1795],{"className":35122},[1820],[128,35124],{"className":35125,"style":1824},[269],[128,35127,35129,35132],{"className":35128},[259],[128,35130,2281],{"className":35131},[259,1815],[128,35133,35135],{"className":35134},[2660],[128,35136,35138],{"className":35137},[274],[128,35139,35141],{"className":35140},[278],[128,35142,35144],{"className":35143,"style":2729},[282],[128,35145,35146,35149],{"style":2732},[128,35147],{"className":35148,"style":291},[290],[128,35150,35152],{"className":35151},[299,300,301,298],[128,35153,35155],{"className":35154},[259,298],[128,35156,2622],{"className":35157},[259,298],[128,35159,1857],{"className":35160},[1894],[128,35162,1844],{"className":35163,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,35165,1848],{"className":35166},[1878],[128,35168,35170,35173],{"className":35169},[259],[128,35171,2281],{"className":35172},[259,1815],[128,35174,35176],{"className":35175},[2660],[128,35177,35179],{"className":35178},[274],[128,35180,35182],{"className":35181},[278],[128,35183,35185],{"className":35184,"style":2729},[282],[128,35186,35187,35190],{"style":2732},[128,35188],{"className":35189,"style":291},[290],[128,35191,35193],{"className":35192},[299,300,301,298],[128,35194,35196],{"className":35195},[259,298],[128,35197,2622],{"className":35198},[259,298],[128,35200,1857],{"className":35201},[1894],[64,35203,35204,35444,35450],{},[11,35205,35206,35209,35210,35238,35239,35290,35291,35342,35343,3127,35415,35443],{},[35,35207,35208],{},"例 3.4"," 回到例 1.2 的吸烟模型，但这次显式承认存在未观测的混杂：设 ",[128,35211,35213,35226],{"className":35212,"translate":218},[217],[128,35214,35216],{"className":35215},[222],[224,35217,35218],{"xmlns":226},[228,35219,35220,35224],{},[231,35221,35222],{},[1790,35223,4184],{},[238,35225,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,35227,35229],{"className":35228,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35230,35232,35235],{"className":35231},[250],[128,35233],{"className":35234,"style":283},[254],[128,35236,4184],{"className":35237,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 为不可观测的遗传因素，",[128,35240,35242,35260],{"className":35241,"translate":218},[217],[128,35243,35245],{"className":35244},[222],[224,35246,35247],{"xmlns":226},[228,35248,35249,35257],{},[231,35250,35251,35253,35255],{},[1790,35252,4184],{},[1793,35254,3573],{},[1790,35256,364],{},[238,35258,35259],{"encoding":240},"U \\to X",[128,35261,35263,35281],{"className":35262,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35264,35266,35269,35272,35275,35278],{"className":35265},[250],[128,35267],{"className":35268,"style":283},[254],[128,35270,4184],{"className":35271,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35273],{"className":35274,"style":1945},[269],[128,35276,3573],{"className":35277},[1949],[128,35279],{"className":35280,"style":1945},[269],[128,35282,35284,35287],{"className":35283},[250],[128,35285],{"className":35286,"style":283},[254],[128,35288,364],{"className":35289,"style":1816},[259,1815],"（吸烟）且 ",[128,35292,35294,35312],{"className":35293,"translate":218},[217],[128,35295,35297],{"className":35296},[222],[224,35298,35299],{"xmlns":226},[228,35300,35301,35309],{},[231,35302,35303,35305,35307],{},[1790,35304,4184],{},[1793,35306,3573],{},[1790,35308,1798],{},[238,35310,35311],{"encoding":240},"U \\to Y",[128,35313,35315,35333],{"className":35314,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35316,35318,35321,35324,35327,35330],{"className":35317},[250],[128,35319],{"className":35320,"style":283},[254],[128,35322,4184],{"className":35323,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35325],{"className":35326,"style":1945},[269],[128,35328,3573],{"className":35329},[1949],[128,35331],{"className":35332,"style":1945},[269],[128,35334,35336,35339],{"className":35335},[250],[128,35337],{"className":35338,"style":283},[254],[128,35340,1798],{"className":35341,"style":1828},[259,1815],"（肺癌）；已知的结构为 ",[128,35344,35346,35367],{"className":35345,"translate":218},[217],[128,35347,35349],{"className":35348},[222],[224,35350,35351],{"xmlns":226},[228,35352,35353,35365],{},[231,35354,35355,35357,35359,35361,35363],{},[1790,35356,364],{},[1793,35358,3573],{},[1790,35360,11188],{},[1793,35362,3573],{},[1790,35364,1798],{},[238,35366,27963],{"encoding":240},[128,35368,35370,35388,35406],{"className":35369,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35371,35373,35376,35379,35382,35385],{"className":35372},[250],[128,35374],{"className":35375,"style":283},[254],[128,35377,364],{"className":35378,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,35380],{"className":35381,"style":1945},[269],[128,35383,3573],{"className":35384},[1949],[128,35386],{"className":35387,"style":1945},[269],[128,35389,35391,35394,35397,35400,35403],{"className":35390},[250],[128,35392],{"className":35393,"style":283},[254],[128,35395,11188],{"className":35396,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35398],{"className":35399,"style":1945},[269],[128,35401,3573],{"className":35402},[1949],[128,35404],{"className":35405,"style":1945},[269],[128,35407,35409,35412],{"className":35408},[250],[128,35410],{"className":35411,"style":283},[254],[128,35413,1798],{"className":35414,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,35416,35418,35431],{"className":35417,"translate":218},[217],[128,35419,35421],{"className":35420},[222],[224,35422,35423],{"xmlns":226},[228,35424,35425,35429],{},[231,35426,35427],{},[1790,35428,11188],{},[238,35430,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,35432,35434],{"className":35433,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35435,35437,35440],{"className":35436},[250],[128,35438],{"className":35439,"style":283},[254],[128,35441,11188],{"className":35442,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 为焦油沉积。",[118,35445,35448],{"className":35446,"code":35447,"language":260},[1443],"            U        （不可观测）\n       ╱         ╲\n      ↓           ↓\n      X ──→ M ──→ Y\n",[125,35449,35447],{"__ignoreMap":123},[11,35451,35452,35453,2173,35481,35509,35510,35583,35584,35612,35613,35641,35642,8387,35714,4082,35742,35770,35771,35799,35800,36219,36220,36223],{},"此时 ",[128,35454,35456,35469],{"className":35455,"translate":218},[217],[128,35457,35459],{"className":35458},[222],[224,35460,35461],{"xmlns":226},[228,35462,35463,35467],{},[231,35464,35465],{},[1790,35466,364],{},[238,35468,364],{"encoding":240},[128,35470,35472],{"className":35471,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35473,35475,35478],{"className":35474},[250],[128,35476],{"className":35477,"style":283},[254],[128,35479,364],{"className":35480,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,35482,35484,35497],{"className":35483,"translate":218},[217],[128,35485,35487],{"className":35486},[222],[224,35488,35489],{"xmlns":226},[228,35490,35491,35495],{},[231,35492,35493],{},[1790,35494,1798],{},[238,35496,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,35498,35500],{"className":35499,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35501,35503,35506],{"className":35502},[250],[128,35504],{"className":35505,"style":283},[254],[128,35507,1798],{"className":35508,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间的后门路径 ",[128,35511,35513,35535],{"className":35512,"translate":218},[217],[128,35514,35516],{"className":35515},[222],[224,35517,35518],{"xmlns":226},[228,35519,35520,35532],{},[231,35521,35522,35524,35526,35528,35530],{},[1790,35523,364],{},[1793,35525,6602],{},[1790,35527,4184],{},[1793,35529,3573],{},[1790,35531,1798],{},[238,35533,35534],{"encoding":240},"X \\leftarrow U \\to Y",[128,35536,35538,35556,35574],{"className":35537,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35539,35541,35544,35547,35550,35553],{"className":35540},[250],[128,35542],{"className":35543,"style":283},[254],[128,35545,364],{"className":35546,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,35548],{"className":35549,"style":1945},[269],[128,35551,6602],{"className":35552},[1949],[128,35554],{"className":35555,"style":1945},[269],[128,35557,35559,35562,35565,35568,35571],{"className":35558},[250],[128,35560],{"className":35561,"style":283},[254],[128,35563,4184],{"className":35564,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35566],{"className":35567,"style":1945},[269],[128,35569,3573],{"className":35570},[1949],[128,35572],{"className":35573,"style":1945},[269],[128,35575,35577,35580],{"className":35576},[250],[128,35578],{"className":35579,"style":283},[254],[128,35581,1798],{"className":35582,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 无法被阻断（",[128,35585,35587,35600],{"className":35586,"translate":218},[217],[128,35588,35590],{"className":35589},[222],[224,35591,35592],{"xmlns":226},[228,35593,35594,35598],{},[231,35595,35596],{},[1790,35597,4184],{},[238,35599,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,35601,35603],{"className":35602,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35604,35606,35609],{"className":35605},[250],[128,35607],{"className":35608,"style":283},[254],[128,35610,4184],{"className":35611,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 不可观测），后门准则失效。但 ",[128,35614,35616,35629],{"className":35615,"translate":218},[217],[128,35617,35619],{"className":35618},[222],[224,35620,35621],{"xmlns":226},[228,35622,35623,35627],{},[231,35624,35625],{},[1790,35626,11188],{},[238,35628,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,35630,35632],{"className":35631,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35633,35635,35638],{"className":35634},[250],[128,35636],{"className":35637,"style":283},[254],[128,35639,11188],{"className":35640,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 阻断了唯一的因果路径 ",[128,35643,35645,35666],{"className":35644,"translate":218},[217],[128,35646,35648],{"className":35647},[222],[224,35649,35650],{"xmlns":226},[228,35651,35652,35664],{},[231,35653,35654,35656,35658,35660,35662],{},[1790,35655,364],{},[1793,35657,3573],{},[1790,35659,11188],{},[1793,35661,3573],{},[1790,35663,1798],{},[238,35665,27963],{"encoding":240},[128,35667,35669,35687,35705],{"className":35668,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35670,35672,35675,35678,35681,35684],{"className":35671},[250],[128,35673],{"className":35674,"style":283},[254],[128,35676,364],{"className":35677,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,35679],{"className":35680,"style":1945},[269],[128,35682,3573],{"className":35683},[1949],[128,35685],{"className":35686,"style":1945},[269],[128,35688,35690,35693,35696,35699,35702],{"className":35689},[250],[128,35691],{"className":35692,"style":283},[254],[128,35694,11188],{"className":35695,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35697],{"className":35698,"style":1945},[269],[128,35700,3573],{"className":35701},[1949],[128,35703],{"className":35704,"style":1945},[269],[128,35706,35708,35711],{"className":35707},[250],[128,35709],{"className":35710,"style":283},[254],[128,35712,1798],{"className":35713,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,35715,35717,35730],{"className":35716,"translate":218},[217],[128,35718,35720],{"className":35719},[222],[224,35721,35722],{"xmlns":226},[228,35723,35724,35728],{},[231,35725,35726],{},[1790,35727,11188],{},[238,35729,11188],{"encoding":240},[128,35731,35733],{"className":35732,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35734,35736,35739],{"className":35735},[250],[128,35737],{"className":35738,"style":283},[254],[128,35740,11188],{"className":35741,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,35743,35745,35758],{"className":35744,"translate":218},[217],[128,35746,35748],{"className":35747},[222],[224,35749,35750],{"xmlns":226},[228,35751,35752,35756],{},[231,35753,35754],{},[1790,35755,1798],{},[238,35757,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,35759,35761],{"className":35760,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35762,35764,35767],{"className":35763},[250],[128,35765],{"className":35766,"style":283},[254],[128,35768,1798],{"className":35769,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 不存在除经由 ",[128,35772,35774,35787],{"className":35773,"translate":218},[217],[128,35775,35777],{"className":35776},[222],[224,35778,35779],{"xmlns":226},[228,35780,35781,35785],{},[231,35782,35783],{},[1790,35784,364],{},[238,35786,364],{"encoding":240},[128,35788,35790],{"className":35789,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35791,35793,35796],{"className":35792},[250],[128,35794],{"className":35795,"style":283},[254],[128,35797,364],{"className":35798,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 之外的后门路径，因此前门准则给出\n",[128,35801,35803,35896],{"className":35802,"translate":218},[217],[128,35804,35806],{"className":35805},[222],[224,35807,35808],{"xmlns":226},[228,35809,35810,35894],{},[231,35811,35812,35814,35816,35818,35820,35822,35824,35826,35828,35830,35832,35834,35840,35842,35844,35846,35848,35850,35852,35862,35864,35866,35868,35870,35872,35874,35880,35882,35884,35886,35892],{},[1790,35813,1844],{},[1793,35815,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,35817,2276],{},[1793,35819,1916],{},[1790,35821,2438],{},[1790,35823,2441],{},[1793,35825,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,35827,2281],{},[1793,35829,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,35831,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,35833,2344],{},[2605,35835,35836,35838],{},[1793,35837,22140],{},[1790,35839,11330],{},[1790,35841,1844],{},[1793,35843,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,35845,11330],{},[1793,35847,1916],{},[1790,35849,2281],{},[1793,35851,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,35853,35854,35856],{},[1793,35855,22140],{},[2614,35857,35858,35860],{},[1790,35859,2281],{},[1793,35861,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1790,35863,1844],{},[1793,35865,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,35867,2276],{},[1793,35869,1916],{},[1790,35871,11330],{},[1793,35873,1795],{"separator":246},[2614,35875,35876,35878],{},[1790,35877,2281],{},[1793,35879,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,35881,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,35883,1844],{},[1793,35885,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2614,35887,35888,35890],{},[1790,35889,2281],{},[1793,35891,2622],{"mathvariant":2620,"lspace":2621,"rspace":2621},[1793,35893,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,35895,34876],{"encoding":240},[128,35897,35899,35923,35953,36020,36128],{"className":35898,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,35900,35902,35905,35908,35911,35914,35917,35920],{"className":35901},[250],[128,35903],{"className":35904,"style":1870},[254],[128,35906,1844],{"className":35907,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,35909,1848],{"className":35910},[1878],[128,35912,2276],{"className":35913,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,35915],{"className":35916,"style":1945},[269],[128,35918,1916],{"className":35919},[1949],[128,35921],{"className":35922,"style":1945},[269],[128,35924,35926,35929,35932,35935,35938,35941,35944,35947,35950],{"className":35925},[250],[128,35927],{"className":35928,"style":1870},[254],[128,35930,2438],{"className":35931},[259,1815],[128,35933,2441],{"className":35934},[259,1815],[128,35936,1848],{"className":35937},[1878],[128,35939,2281],{"className":35940},[259,1815],[128,35942,2501],{"className":35943},[1894],[128,35945],{"className":35946,"style":1945},[269],[128,35948,2344],{"className":35949},[1949],[128,35951],{"className":35952,"style":1945},[269],[128,35954,35956,35959,35999,36002,36005,36008,36011,36014,36017],{"className":35955},[250],[128,35957],{"className":35958,"style":22318},[254],[128,35960,35962,35965],{"className":35961},[14490],[128,35963,22140],{"className":35964,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,35966,35968],{"className":35967},[2660],[128,35969,35971,35991],{"className":35970},[274,321],[128,35972,35974,35988],{"className":35973},[278],[128,35975,35977],{"className":35976,"style":22337},[282],[128,35978,35979,35982],{"style":14512},[128,35980],{"className":35981,"style":291},[290],[128,35983,35985],{"className":35984},[299,300,301,298],[128,35986,11330],{"className":35987},[259,1815,298],[128,35989,347],{"className":35990},[346],[128,35992,35994],{"className":35993},[278],[128,35995,35997],{"className":35996,"style":14552},[282],[128,35998],{},[128,36000],{"className":36001,"style":1824},[269],[128,36003,1844],{"className":36004,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,36006,1848],{"className":36007},[1878],[128,36009,11330],{"className":36010},[259,1815],[128,36012],{"className":36013,"style":1945},[269],[128,36015,1916],{"className":36016},[1949],[128,36018],{"className":36019,"style":1945},[269],[128,36021,36023,36026,36029,36032,36035,36107,36110,36113,36116,36119,36122,36125],{"className":36022},[250],[128,36024],{"className":36025,"style":22318},[254],[128,36027,2281],{"className":36028},[259,1815],[128,36030,1857],{"className":36031},[1894],[128,36033],{"className":36034,"style":1824},[269],[128,36036,36038,36041],{"className":36037},[14490],[128,36039,22140],{"className":36040,"style":14496},[14490,14494,14495],[128,36042,36044],{"className":36043},[2660],[128,36045,36047,36099],{"className":36046},[274,321],[128,36048,36050,36096],{"className":36049},[278],[128,36051,36053],{"className":36052,"style":35034},[282],[128,36054,36055,36058],{"style":14512},[128,36056],{"className":36057,"style":291},[290],[128,36059,36061],{"className":36060},[299,300,301,298],[128,36062,36064],{"className":36063},[259,298],[128,36065,36067,36070],{"className":36066},[259,298],[128,36068,2281],{"className":36069},[259,1815,298],[128,36071,36073],{"className":36072},[2660],[128,36074,36076],{"className":36075},[274],[128,36077,36079],{"className":36078},[278],[128,36080,36082],{"className":36081,"style":35064},[282],[128,36083,36084,36087],{"style":28286},[128,36085],{"className":36086,"style":20135},[290],[128,36088,36090],{"className":36089},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,36091,36093],{"className":36092},[259,298],[128,36094,2622],{"className":36095},[259,298],[128,36097,347],{"className":36098},[346],[128,36100,36102],{"className":36101},[278],[128,36103,36105],{"className":36104,"style":14552},[282],[128,36106],{},[128,36108],{"className":36109,"style":1824},[269],[128,36111,1844],{"className":36112,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,36114,1848],{"className":36115},[1878],[128,36117,2276],{"className":36118,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,36120],{"className":36121,"style":1945},[269],[128,36123,1916],{"className":36124},[1949],[128,36126],{"className":36127,"style":1945},[269],[128,36129,36131,36134,36137,36140,36143,36175,36178,36181,36184,36216],{"className":36130},[250],[128,36132],{"className":36133,"style":2710},[254],[128,36135,11330],{"className":36136},[259,1815],[128,36138,1795],{"className":36139},[1820],[128,36141],{"className":36142,"style":1824},[269],[128,36144,36146,36149],{"className":36145},[259],[128,36147,2281],{"className":36148},[259,1815],[128,36150,36152],{"className":36151},[2660],[128,36153,36155],{"className":36154},[274],[128,36156,36158],{"className":36157},[278],[128,36159,36161],{"className":36160,"style":2729},[282],[128,36162,36163,36166],{"style":2732},[128,36164],{"className":36165,"style":291},[290],[128,36167,36169],{"className":36168},[299,300,301,298],[128,36170,36172],{"className":36171},[259,298],[128,36173,2622],{"className":36174},[259,298],[128,36176,1857],{"className":36177},[1894],[128,36179,1844],{"className":36180,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,36182,1848],{"className":36183},[1878],[128,36185,36187,36190],{"className":36186},[259],[128,36188,2281],{"className":36189},[259,1815],[128,36191,36193],{"className":36192},[2660],[128,36194,36196],{"className":36195},[274],[128,36197,36199],{"className":36198},[278],[128,36200,36202],{"className":36201,"style":2729},[282],[128,36203,36204,36207],{"style":2732},[128,36205],{"className":36206,"style":291},[290],[128,36208,36210],{"className":36209},[299,300,301,298],[128,36211,36213],{"className":36212},[259,298],[128,36214,2622],{"className":36215},[259,298],[128,36217,1857],{"className":36218},[1894],"\n即：",[35,36221,36222],{},"即便存在不可观测的混杂，只要有一个满足前门条件的中介变量，吸烟对肺癌的因果效应仍然可以从纯观测数据中识别出来。"," 这是因果图相对于纯统计框架的一个相当反直觉的力量所在——它把「哪些数据是可用的」与「哪些机制是可靠的」分开处理，从而在因果推断看似无从下手之处找回了一条通路。",[11,36225,36226],{},"前门准则同时也是 2.1 节中「半马尔可夫型 SCM」这一概念唯一的实际用武之地：当外生变量之间存在相关的隐藏噪声时，正是这类准则在继续保证可识别性。但必须强调，前门准则的适用面很窄——它要求恰好存在一个阻断全部因果路径的中介变量，并且该中介与结果之间不存在未观测的混杂。对一般结构的半马尔可夫型 SCM，可识别性并不自动成立。",[11,36228,36229,36230,36258,36259,36262],{},"这一准则将第一部分中「该控制哪些变量」的图论直觉，与第三部分的干预定义精确对接：叉结构中的混杂因子正是典型的满足后门准则的调整集合，而对撞结构中的变量则应被排除在 ",[128,36231,36233,36246],{"className":36232,"translate":218},[217],[128,36234,36236],{"className":36235},[222],[224,36237,36238],{"xmlns":226},[228,36239,36240,36244],{},[231,36241,36242],{},[1790,36243,5505],{},[238,36245,5505],{"encoding":240},[128,36247,36249],{"className":36248,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36250,36252,36255],{"className":36251},[250],[128,36253],{"className":36254,"style":283},[254],[128,36256,5505],{"className":36257,"style":3123},[259,1815]," 之外。这一对应关系并非巧合：",[35,36260,36261],{},"满足后门准则的调整集合，正是一个能够阻断全部非因果路径的 d-分离集合","，第一部分与第三部分在此处精确接榫。至此，本文从因果图出发、经由结构因果模型、最终落脚于结构方程与 do-演算的逻辑链条已经闭合。剩下要问的是：这一体系与统计学、计量经济学中既有的因果推断工具相比处于什么位置，以及它的成立依赖哪些假设。",[51,36264,36265],{"id":36265},"相邻框架与适用边界",[11,36267,36268],{},"本文至此勾勒的是一套自洽的形式化体系。但因果推断在统计学、计量经济学与机器学习中并非只有这一种语言。本部分把它与两个最重要的相邻传统作对照，说明各自的着眼点与互补之处，最后梳理该体系成立所依赖的假设与边界。",[3038,36270,36272],{"id":36271},"_41-潜在结果框架一种等价的语言","4.1 潜在结果框架：一种等价的语言",[11,36274,36275,36276,36279],{},"与结构因果模型并行发展的，是由 Rubin 等人推动的",[35,36277,36278],{},"潜在结果框架（Potential Outcome Framework，亦称 Rubin 因果模型）","。它不诉诸图，而是从个体层面的潜在结果出发：",[64,36281,36282],{},[11,36283,36284,8074,36287,36361,36362,36390,36391,36476,36477,36562,36563,36726,36727,893],{},[35,36285,36286],{},"定义 4.1（潜在结果与因果效应）",[128,36288,36290,36316],{"className":36289,"translate":218},[217],[128,36291,36293],{"className":36292},[222],[224,36294,36295],{"xmlns":226},[228,36296,36297,36313],{},[231,36298,36299,36301,36303,36305,36307,36309,36311],{},[1790,36300,364],{},[1793,36302,3423],{},[1793,36304,3146],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36306,4187],{},[1793,36308,1795],{"separator":246},[3152,36310,3154],{},[1793,36312,3171],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36314,36315],{"encoding":240},"X \\in \\{0,1\\}",[128,36317,36319,36337],{"className":36318,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36320,36322,36325,36328,36331,36334],{"className":36321},[250],[128,36323],{"className":36324,"style":8365},[254],[128,36326,364],{"className":36327,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,36329],{"className":36330,"style":1945},[269],[128,36332,3423],{"className":36333},[1949],[128,36335],{"className":36336,"style":1945},[269],[128,36338,36340,36343,36346,36349,36352,36355,36358],{"className":36339},[250],[128,36341],{"className":36342,"style":1870},[254],[128,36344,3146],{"className":36345},[1878],[128,36347,4187],{"className":36348},[259],[128,36350,1795],{"className":36351},[1820],[128,36353],{"className":36354,"style":1824},[269],[128,36356,3154],{"className":36357},[259],[128,36359,3171],{"className":36360},[1894]," 为处理指示变量。对每个个体 ",[128,36363,36365,36378],{"className":36364,"translate":218},[217],[128,36366,36368],{"className":36367},[222],[224,36369,36370],{"xmlns":226},[228,36371,36372,36376],{},[231,36373,36374],{},[1790,36375,3409],{},[238,36377,3409],{"encoding":240},[128,36379,36381],{"className":36380,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36382,36384,36387],{"className":36383},[250],[128,36385],{"className":36386,"style":13002},[254],[128,36388,3409],{"className":36389},[259,1815],"，定义两个潜在结果 ",[128,36392,36394,36418],{"className":36393,"translate":218},[217],[128,36395,36397],{"className":36396},[222],[224,36398,36399],{"xmlns":226},[228,36400,36401,36415],{},[231,36402,36403,36409,36411,36413],{},[2605,36404,36405,36407],{},[1790,36406,1798],{},[1790,36408,3409],{},[1793,36410,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36412,3154],{},[1793,36414,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36416,36417],{"encoding":240},"Y_i(1)",[128,36419,36421],{"className":36420,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36422,36424,36427,36467,36470,36473],{"className":36423},[250],[128,36425],{"className":36426,"style":1870},[254],[128,36428,36430,36433],{"className":36429},[259],[128,36431,1798],{"className":36432,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36434,36436],{"className":36435},[2660],[128,36437,36439,36459],{"className":36438},[274,321],[128,36440,36442,36456],{"className":36441},[278],[128,36443,36445],{"className":36444,"style":3460},[282],[128,36446,36447,36450],{"style":3226},[128,36448],{"className":36449,"style":291},[290],[128,36451,36453],{"className":36452},[299,300,301,298],[128,36454,3409],{"className":36455},[259,1815,298],[128,36457,347],{"className":36458},[346],[128,36460,36462],{"className":36461},[278],[128,36463,36465],{"className":36464,"style":2692},[282],[128,36466],{},[128,36468,1848],{"className":36469},[1878],[128,36471,3154],{"className":36472},[259],[128,36474,1857],{"className":36475},[1894],"（接受处理时的结果）与 ",[128,36478,36480,36504],{"className":36479,"translate":218},[217],[128,36481,36483],{"className":36482},[222],[224,36484,36485],{"xmlns":226},[228,36486,36487,36501],{},[231,36488,36489,36495,36497,36499],{},[2605,36490,36491,36493],{},[1790,36492,1798],{},[1790,36494,3409],{},[1793,36496,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36498,4187],{},[1793,36500,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36502,36503],{"encoding":240},"Y_i(0)",[128,36505,36507],{"className":36506,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36508,36510,36513,36553,36556,36559],{"className":36509},[250],[128,36511],{"className":36512,"style":1870},[254],[128,36514,36516,36519],{"className":36515},[259],[128,36517,1798],{"className":36518,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36520,36522],{"className":36521},[2660],[128,36523,36525,36545],{"className":36524},[274,321],[128,36526,36528,36542],{"className":36527},[278],[128,36529,36531],{"className":36530,"style":3460},[282],[128,36532,36533,36536],{"style":3226},[128,36534],{"className":36535,"style":291},[290],[128,36537,36539],{"className":36538},[299,300,301,298],[128,36540,3409],{"className":36541},[259,1815,298],[128,36543,347],{"className":36544},[346],[128,36546,36548],{"className":36547},[278],[128,36549,36551],{"className":36550,"style":2692},[282],[128,36552],{},[128,36554,1848],{"className":36555},[1878],[128,36557,4187],{"className":36558},[259],[128,36560,1857],{"className":36561},[1894],"（未接受处理时的结果）。个体因果效应定义为 ",[128,36564,36566,36604],{"className":36565,"translate":218},[217],[128,36567,36569],{"className":36568},[222],[224,36570,36571],{"xmlns":226},[228,36572,36573,36601],{},[231,36574,36575,36581,36583,36585,36587,36589,36595,36597,36599],{},[2605,36576,36577,36579],{},[1790,36578,1798],{},[1790,36580,3409],{},[1793,36582,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36584,3154],{},[1793,36586,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,36588,15953],{},[2605,36590,36591,36593],{},[1790,36592,1798],{},[1790,36594,3409],{},[1793,36596,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36598,4187],{},[1793,36600,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36602,36603],{"encoding":240},"Y_i(1) - Y_i(0)",[128,36605,36607,36671],{"className":36606,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36608,36610,36613,36653,36656,36659,36662,36665,36668],{"className":36609},[250],[128,36611],{"className":36612,"style":1870},[254],[128,36614,36616,36619],{"className":36615},[259],[128,36617,1798],{"className":36618,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36620,36622],{"className":36621},[2660],[128,36623,36625,36645],{"className":36624},[274,321],[128,36626,36628,36642],{"className":36627},[278],[128,36629,36631],{"className":36630,"style":3460},[282],[128,36632,36633,36636],{"style":3226},[128,36634],{"className":36635,"style":291},[290],[128,36637,36639],{"className":36638},[299,300,301,298],[128,36640,3409],{"className":36641},[259,1815,298],[128,36643,347],{"className":36644},[346],[128,36646,36648],{"className":36647},[278],[128,36649,36651],{"className":36650,"style":2692},[282],[128,36652],{},[128,36654,1848],{"className":36655},[1878],[128,36657,3154],{"className":36658},[259],[128,36660,1857],{"className":36661},[1894],[128,36663],{"className":36664,"style":1828},[269],[128,36666,15953],{"className":36667},[3375],[128,36669],{"className":36670,"style":1828},[269],[128,36672,36674,36677,36717,36720,36723],{"className":36673},[250],[128,36675],{"className":36676,"style":1870},[254],[128,36678,36680,36683],{"className":36679},[259],[128,36681,1798],{"className":36682,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36684,36686],{"className":36685},[2660],[128,36687,36689,36709],{"className":36688},[274,321],[128,36690,36692,36706],{"className":36691},[278],[128,36693,36695],{"className":36694,"style":3460},[282],[128,36696,36697,36700],{"style":3226},[128,36698],{"className":36699,"style":291},[290],[128,36701,36703],{"className":36702},[299,300,301,298],[128,36704,3409],{"className":36705},[259,1815,298],[128,36707,347],{"className":36708},[346],[128,36710,36712],{"className":36711},[278],[128,36713,36715],{"className":36714,"style":2692},[282],[128,36716],{},[128,36718,1848],{"className":36719},[1878],[128,36721,4187],{"className":36722},[259],[128,36724,1857],{"className":36725},[1894],"，平均处理效应定义为 ",[128,36728,36730,36776],{"className":36729,"translate":218},[217],[128,36731,36733],{"className":36732},[222],[224,36734,36735],{"xmlns":226},[228,36736,36737,36773],{},[231,36738,36739,36747,36749,36751,36753,36755,36757,36759,36761,36763,36765,36767,36769,36771],{},[231,36740,36741,36743,36745],{},[1790,36742,302],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,36744,313],{"mathvariant":2620},[1790,36746,342],{"mathvariant":2620},[1793,36748,2344],{},[1790,36750,342],{"mathvariant":15533},[1793,36752,15536],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,36754,1798],{},[1793,36756,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36758,3154],{},[1793,36760,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,36762,15953],{},[1790,36764,1798],{},[1793,36766,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,36768,4187],{},[1793,36770,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,36772,15545],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36774,36775],{"encoding":240},"\\mathrm{ATE} = \\mathbb{E}[Y(1) - Y(0)]",[128,36777,36779,36801,36834],{"className":36778,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36780,36782,36785,36792,36795,36798],{"className":36781},[250],[128,36783],{"className":36784,"style":283},[254],[128,36786,36788],{"className":36787},[259],[128,36789,36791],{"className":36790},[259,12100],"ATE",[128,36793],{"className":36794,"style":1945},[269],[128,36796,2344],{"className":36797},[1949],[128,36799],{"className":36800,"style":1945},[269],[128,36802,36804,36807,36810,36813,36816,36819,36822,36825,36828,36831],{"className":36803},[250],[128,36805],{"className":36806,"style":1870},[254],[128,36808,342],{"className":36809},[259,28164],[128,36811,15536],{"className":36812},[1878],[128,36814,1798],{"className":36815,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36817,1848],{"className":36818},[1878],[128,36820,3154],{"className":36821},[259],[128,36823,1857],{"className":36824},[1894],[128,36826],{"className":36827,"style":1828},[269],[128,36829,15953],{"className":36830},[3375],[128,36832],{"className":36833,"style":1828},[269],[128,36835,36837,36840,36843,36846,36849],{"className":36836},[250],[128,36838],{"className":36839,"style":1870},[254],[128,36841,1798],{"className":36842,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36844,1848],{"className":36845},[1878],[128,36847,4187],{"className":36848},[259],[128,36850,36852],{"className":36851},[1894],")]",[11,36854,36855,36856,36859,36860,36987],{},"这一框架的核心困难称作",[35,36857,36858],{},"因果推断的根本问题（Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference）","：对任何个体，我们只能观测到 ",[128,36861,36863,36891],{"className":36862,"translate":218},[217],[128,36864,36866],{"className":36865},[222],[224,36867,36868],{"xmlns":226},[228,36869,36870,36888],{},[231,36871,36872,36878,36880,36886],{},[2605,36873,36874,36876],{},[1790,36875,1798],{},[1790,36877,3409],{},[1793,36879,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,36881,36882,36884],{},[1790,36883,364],{},[1790,36885,3409],{},[1793,36887,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,36889,36890],{"encoding":240},"Y_i(X_i)",[128,36892,36894],{"className":36893,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,36895,36897,36900,36940,36943,36984],{"className":36896},[250],[128,36898],{"className":36899,"style":1870},[254],[128,36901,36903,36906],{"className":36902},[259],[128,36904,1798],{"className":36905,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,36907,36909],{"className":36908},[2660],[128,36910,36912,36932],{"className":36911},[274,321],[128,36913,36915,36929],{"className":36914},[278],[128,36916,36918],{"className":36917,"style":3460},[282],[128,36919,36920,36923],{"style":3226},[128,36921],{"className":36922,"style":291},[290],[128,36924,36926],{"className":36925},[299,300,301,298],[128,36927,3409],{"className":36928},[259,1815,298],[128,36930,347],{"className":36931},[346],[128,36933,36935],{"className":36934},[278],[128,36936,36938],{"className":36937,"style":2692},[282],[128,36939],{},[128,36941,1848],{"className":36942},[1878],[128,36944,36946,36949],{"className":36945},[259],[128,36947,364],{"className":36948,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,36950,36952],{"className":36951},[2660],[128,36953,36955,36976],{"className":36954},[274,321],[128,36956,36958,36973],{"className":36957},[278],[128,36959,36961],{"className":36960,"style":3460},[282],[128,36962,36964,36967],{"style":36963},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0785em;margin-right:0.05em;",[128,36965],{"className":36966,"style":291},[290],[128,36968,36970],{"className":36969},[299,300,301,298],[128,36971,3409],{"className":36972},[259,1815,298],[128,36974,347],{"className":36975},[346],[128,36977,36979],{"className":36978},[278],[128,36980,36982],{"className":36981,"style":2692},[282],[128,36983],{},[128,36985,1857],{"className":36986},[1894],"，另一个潜在结果永远缺失。因此个体因果效应原则上不可观测，只能转而估计总体层面的量。",[11,36989,36990,36991,37076,37077,37247,37248,37276,37277,37370,37371,37374],{},"这与本文 3.3 节的三步算法形成直接对照：潜在结果框架中的 ",[128,36992,36994,37018],{"className":36993,"translate":218},[217],[128,36995,36997],{"className":36996},[222],[224,36998,36999],{"xmlns":226},[228,37000,37001,37015],{},[231,37002,37003,37009,37011,37013],{},[2605,37004,37005,37007],{},[1790,37006,1798],{},[1790,37008,3409],{},[1793,37010,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,37012,2281],{},[1793,37014,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,37016,37017],{"encoding":240},"Y_i(x)",[128,37019,37021],{"className":37020,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37022,37024,37027,37067,37070,37073],{"className":37023},[250],[128,37025],{"className":37026,"style":1870},[254],[128,37028,37030,37033],{"className":37029},[259],[128,37031,1798],{"className":37032,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37034,37036],{"className":37035},[2660],[128,37037,37039,37059],{"className":37038},[274,321],[128,37040,37042,37056],{"className":37041},[278],[128,37043,37045],{"className":37044,"style":3460},[282],[128,37046,37047,37050],{"style":3226},[128,37048],{"className":37049,"style":291},[290],[128,37051,37053],{"className":37052},[299,300,301,298],[128,37054,3409],{"className":37055},[259,1815,298],[128,37057,347],{"className":37058},[346],[128,37060,37062],{"className":37061},[278],[128,37063,37065],{"className":37064,"style":2692},[282],[128,37066],{},[128,37068,1848],{"className":37069},[1878],[128,37071,2281],{"className":37072},[259,1815],[128,37074,1857],{"className":37075},[1894]," 正是 SCM 中的 ",[128,37078,37080,37112],{"className":37079,"translate":218},[217],[128,37081,37083],{"className":37082},[222],[224,37084,37085],{"xmlns":226},[228,37086,37087,37109],{},[231,37088,37089,37099,37101,37107],{},[2605,37090,37091,37093],{},[1790,37092,1798],{},[2605,37094,37095,37097],{},[1790,37096,11188],{},[1790,37098,2281],{},[1793,37100,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[2605,37102,37103,37105],{},[1790,37104,15496],{},[1790,37106,3409],{},[1793,37108,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,37110,37111],{"encoding":240},"Y_{M_x}(u_i)",[128,37113,37115],{"className":37114,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37116,37118,37121,37201,37204,37244],{"className":37117},[250],[128,37119],{"className":37120,"style":20080},[254],[128,37122,37124,37127],{"className":37123},[259],[128,37125,1798],{"className":37126,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37128,37130],{"className":37129},[2660],[128,37131,37133,37193],{"className":37132},[274,321],[128,37134,37136,37190],{"className":37135},[278],[128,37137,37139],{"className":37138,"style":9078},[282],[128,37140,37141,37144],{"style":3226},[128,37142],{"className":37143,"style":291},[290],[128,37145,37147],{"className":37146},[299,300,301,298],[128,37148,37150],{"className":37149},[259,298],[128,37151,37153,37156],{"className":37152},[259,298],[128,37154,11188],{"className":37155,"style":4296},[259,1815,298],[128,37157,37159],{"className":37158},[2660],[128,37160,37162,37182],{"className":37161},[274,321],[128,37163,37165,37179],{"className":37164},[278],[128,37166,37168],{"className":37167,"style":20128},[282],[128,37169,37170,37173],{"style":20131},[128,37171],{"className":37172,"style":20135},[290],[128,37174,37176],{"className":37175},[299,20139,16807,298],[128,37177,2281],{"className":37178},[259,1815,298],[128,37180,347],{"className":37181},[346],[128,37183,37185],{"className":37184},[278],[128,37186,37188],{"className":37187,"style":20152},[282],[128,37189],{},[128,37191,347],{"className":37192},[346],[128,37194,37196],{"className":37195},[278],[128,37197,37199],{"className":37198,"style":20164},[282],[128,37200],{},[128,37202,1848],{"className":37203},[1878],[128,37205,37207,37210],{"className":37206},[259],[128,37208,15496],{"className":37209},[259,1815],[128,37211,37213],{"className":37212},[2660],[128,37214,37216,37236],{"className":37215},[274,321],[128,37217,37219,37233],{"className":37218},[278],[128,37220,37222],{"className":37221,"style":3460},[282],[128,37223,37224,37227],{"style":9009},[128,37225],{"className":37226,"style":291},[290],[128,37228,37230],{"className":37229},[299,300,301,298],[128,37231,3409],{"className":37232},[259,1815,298],[128,37234,347],{"className":37235},[346],[128,37237,37239],{"className":37238},[278],[128,37240,37242],{"className":37241,"style":2692},[282],[128,37243],{},[128,37245,1857],{"className":37246},[1894],"，个体 ",[128,37249,37251,37264],{"className":37250,"translate":218},[217],[128,37252,37254],{"className":37253},[222],[224,37255,37256],{"xmlns":226},[228,37257,37258,37262],{},[231,37259,37260],{},[1790,37261,3409],{},[238,37263,3409],{"encoding":240},[128,37265,37267],{"className":37266,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37268,37270,37273],{"className":37269},[250],[128,37271],{"className":37272,"style":13002},[254],[128,37274,3409],{"className":37275},[259,1815]," 即外生变量的一次实现 ",[128,37278,37280,37302],{"className":37279,"translate":218},[217],[128,37281,37283],{"className":37282},[222],[224,37284,37285],{"xmlns":226},[228,37286,37287,37299],{},[231,37288,37289,37291,37293],{},[1790,37290,4184],{},[1793,37292,2344],{},[2605,37294,37295,37297],{},[1790,37296,15496],{},[1790,37298,3409],{},[238,37300,37301],{"encoding":240},"U = u_i",[128,37303,37305,37323],{"className":37304,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37306,37308,37311,37314,37317,37320],{"className":37307},[250],[128,37309],{"className":37310,"style":283},[254],[128,37312,4184],{"className":37313,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,37315],{"className":37316,"style":1945},[269],[128,37318,2344],{"className":37319},[1949],[128,37321],{"className":37322,"style":1945},[269],[128,37324,37326,37330],{"className":37325},[250],[128,37327],{"className":37328,"style":37329},[254],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[128,37331,37333,37336],{"className":37332},[259],[128,37334,15496],{"className":37335},[259,1815],[128,37337,37339],{"className":37338},[2660],[128,37340,37342,37362],{"className":37341},[274,321],[128,37343,37345,37359],{"className":37344},[278],[128,37346,37348],{"className":37347,"style":3460},[282],[128,37349,37350,37353],{"style":9009},[128,37351],{"className":37352,"style":291},[290],[128,37354,37356],{"className":37355},[299,300,301,298],[128,37357,3409],{"className":37358},[259,1815,298],[128,37360,347],{"className":37361},[346],[128,37363,37365],{"className":37364},[278],[128,37366,37368],{"className":37367,"style":2692},[282],[128,37369],{},"。事实上，在只涉及可操纵变量、且不引用跨世界量的范围内，两套形式化被证明是",[35,37372,37373],{},"等价的","；SCM 的表达力略宽一些，例如它可以容纳不可操纵的变量（如年龄、性别），而这在严格的潜在结果表述中会造成困难。二者共享同一组识别性条件，只是表述方式不同：",[2249,37376,37377,37384],{},[2252,37378,37379,37380,37383],{},"SCM 用 ",[35,37381,37382],{},"d-分离与后门准则","回答「应当控制哪些变量」，把这一判断变成图上的机械判定；",[2252,37385,37386,37387,1148,37390,37549,37550,37675],{},"潜在结果框架用",[35,37388,37389],{},"可忽略性假设（ignorability）",[128,37391,37393,37443],{"className":37392,"translate":218},[217],[128,37394,37396],{"className":37395},[222],[224,37397,37398],{"xmlns":226},[228,37399,37400,37440],{},[231,37401,37402,37404,37406,37408,37410,37412,37414,37416,37418,37420,37422,37424,37426,37428,37430,37432,37434,37436,37438],{},[1793,37403,1848],{"fence":1847,"stretchy":246,"minsize":15948,"maxsize":15948},[1790,37405,1798],{},[1793,37407,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,37409,3154],{},[1793,37411,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37413,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,37415,1798],{},[1793,37417,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,37419,4187],{},[1793,37421,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37423,1857],{"fence":1847,"stretchy":246,"minsize":15948,"maxsize":15948},[1793,37425,1982],{},[234,37427,1985],{},[234,37429,1985],{},[234,37431,1985],{},[1793,37433,1982],{},[1790,37435,364],{},[1793,37437,1916],{},[1790,37439,5521],{},[238,37441,37442],{"encoding":240},"\\big(Y(1), Y(0)\\big) \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp X \\mid W",[128,37444,37446,37510,37522,37540],{"className":37445,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37447,37449,37453,37459,37462,37465,37468,37471,37474,37477,37480,37483,37486,37489,37495,37498,37501,37504,37507],{"className":37448},[250],[128,37450],{"className":37451,"style":37452},[254],"height:1.2em;vertical-align:-0.35em;",[128,37454,37456],{"className":37455},[259],[128,37457,1848],{"className":37458},[16806,16807],[128,37460,1798],{"className":37461,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37463,1848],{"className":37464},[1878],[128,37466,3154],{"className":37467},[259],[128,37469,1857],{"className":37470},[1894],[128,37472,1795],{"className":37473},[1820],[128,37475],{"className":37476,"style":1824},[269],[128,37478,1798],{"className":37479,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37481,1848],{"className":37482},[1878],[128,37484,4187],{"className":37485},[259],[128,37487,1857],{"className":37488},[1894],[128,37490,37492],{"className":37491},[259],[128,37493,1857],{"className":37494},[16806,16807],[128,37496],{"className":37497,"style":1945},[269],[128,37499,1982],{"className":37500},[1949],[128,37502],{"className":37503,"style":317},[269],[128,37505],{"className":37506,"style":317},[269],[128,37508],{"className":37509,"style":317},[269],[128,37511,37513,37516,37519],{"className":37512},[250],[128,37514],{"className":37515,"style":2006},[254],[128,37517,1982],{"className":37518},[1949],[128,37520],{"className":37521,"style":1945},[269],[128,37523,37525,37528,37531,37534,37537],{"className":37524},[250],[128,37526],{"className":37527,"style":1870},[254],[128,37529,364],{"className":37530,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,37532],{"className":37533,"style":1945},[269],[128,37535,1916],{"className":37536},[1949],[128,37538],{"className":37539,"style":1945},[269],[128,37541,37543,37546],{"className":37542},[250],[128,37544],{"className":37545,"style":283},[254],[128,37547,5521],{"className":37548,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 表达同一件事，并由此导出倾向得分 ",[128,37551,37553,37591],{"className":37552,"translate":218},[217],[128,37554,37556],{"className":37555},[222],[224,37557,37558],{"xmlns":226},[228,37559,37560,37588],{},[231,37561,37562,37564,37566,37568,37570,37572,37574,37576,37578,37580,37582,37584,37586],{},[1790,37563,15486],{},[1793,37565,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,37567,5521],{},[1793,37569,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37571,2344],{},[1790,37573,1844],{},[1793,37575,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,37577,364],{},[1793,37579,2344],{},[3152,37581,3154],{},[1793,37583,1916],{},[1790,37585,5521],{},[1793,37587,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,37589,37590],{"encoding":240},"e(W) = P(X = 1 \\mid W)",[128,37592,37594,37621,37645,37663],{"className":37593,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37595,37597,37600,37603,37606,37609,37612,37615,37618],{"className":37596},[250],[128,37598],{"className":37599,"style":1870},[254],[128,37601,15486],{"className":37602},[259,1815],[128,37604,1848],{"className":37605},[1878],[128,37607,5521],{"className":37608,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,37610,1857],{"className":37611},[1894],[128,37613],{"className":37614,"style":1945},[269],[128,37616,2344],{"className":37617},[1949],[128,37619],{"className":37620,"style":1945},[269],[128,37622,37624,37627,37630,37633,37636,37639,37642],{"className":37623},[250],[128,37625],{"className":37626,"style":1870},[254],[128,37628,1844],{"className":37629,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,37631,1848],{"className":37632},[1878],[128,37634,364],{"className":37635,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,37637],{"className":37638,"style":1945},[269],[128,37640,2344],{"className":37641},[1949],[128,37643],{"className":37644,"style":1945},[269],[128,37646,37648,37651,37654,37657,37660],{"className":37647},[250],[128,37649],{"className":37650,"style":1870},[254],[128,37652,3154],{"className":37653},[259],[128,37655],{"className":37656,"style":1945},[269],[128,37658,1916],{"className":37659},[1949],[128,37661],{"className":37662,"style":1945},[269],[128,37664,37666,37669,37672],{"className":37665},[250],[128,37667],{"className":37668,"style":1870},[254],[128,37670,5521],{"className":37671,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,37673,1857],{"className":37674},[1894],"，以及逆概率加权（IPW）、双重稳健估计等成熟的估计工具。",[11,37677,37678,37679,37821,37822,37850,37851,37879,37880,37883,37884,12396,37887,38019],{},"值得注意的是，",[128,37680,37682,37728],{"className":37681,"translate":218},[217],[128,37683,37685],{"className":37684},[222],[224,37686,37687],{"xmlns":226},[228,37688,37689,37725],{},[231,37690,37691,37693,37695,37697,37699,37701,37703,37705,37707,37709,37711,37713,37715,37717,37719,37721,37723],{},[1790,37692,1798],{},[1793,37694,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,37696,3154],{},[1793,37698,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37700,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,37702,1798],{},[1793,37704,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[3152,37706,4187],{},[1793,37708,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37710,1982],{},[234,37712,1985],{},[234,37714,1985],{},[234,37716,1985],{},[1793,37718,1982],{},[1790,37720,364],{},[1793,37722,1916],{},[1790,37724,5521],{},[238,37726,37727],{"encoding":240},"Y(1), Y(0) \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp X \\mid W",[128,37729,37731,37782,37794,37812],{"className":37730,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37732,37734,37737,37740,37743,37746,37749,37752,37755,37758,37761,37764,37767,37770,37773,37776,37779],{"className":37733},[250],[128,37735],{"className":37736,"style":1870},[254],[128,37738,1798],{"className":37739,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37741,1848],{"className":37742},[1878],[128,37744,3154],{"className":37745},[259],[128,37747,1857],{"className":37748},[1894],[128,37750,1795],{"className":37751},[1820],[128,37753],{"className":37754,"style":1824},[269],[128,37756,1798],{"className":37757,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,37759,1848],{"className":37760},[1878],[128,37762,4187],{"className":37763},[259],[128,37765,1857],{"className":37766},[1894],[128,37768],{"className":37769,"style":1945},[269],[128,37771,1982],{"className":37772},[1949],[128,37774],{"className":37775,"style":317},[269],[128,37777],{"className":37778,"style":317},[269],[128,37780],{"className":37781,"style":317},[269],[128,37783,37785,37788,37791],{"className":37784},[250],[128,37786],{"className":37787,"style":2006},[254],[128,37789,1982],{"className":37790},[1949],[128,37792],{"className":37793,"style":1945},[269],[128,37795,37797,37800,37803,37806,37809],{"className":37796},[250],[128,37798],{"className":37799,"style":1870},[254],[128,37801,364],{"className":37802,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,37804],{"className":37805,"style":1945},[269],[128,37807,1916],{"className":37808},[1949],[128,37810],{"className":37811,"style":1945},[269],[128,37813,37815,37818],{"className":37814},[250],[128,37816],{"className":37817,"style":283},[254],[128,37819,5521],{"className":37820,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 与「",[128,37823,37825,37838],{"className":37824,"translate":218},[217],[128,37826,37828],{"className":37827},[222],[224,37829,37830],{"xmlns":226},[228,37831,37832,37836],{},[231,37833,37834],{},[1790,37835,5521],{},[238,37837,5521],{"encoding":240},[128,37839,37841],{"className":37840,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37842,37844,37847],{"className":37843},[250],[128,37845],{"className":37846,"style":283},[254],[128,37848,5521],{"className":37849,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 满足后门准则」所刻画的正是同一组条件：随机化（或条件随机化）在图上做的事情，恰恰就是删除指向 ",[128,37852,37854,37867],{"className":37853,"translate":218},[217],[128,37855,37857],{"className":37856},[222],[224,37858,37859],{"xmlns":226},[228,37860,37861,37865],{},[231,37862,37863],{},[1790,37864,364],{},[238,37866,364],{"encoding":240},[128,37868,37870],{"className":37869,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37871,37873,37876],{"className":37872},[250],[128,37874],{"className":37875,"style":283},[254],[128,37877,364],{"className":37878,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的全部入边。此外，潜在结果框架还引入了 SCM 表述中不显式出现的两条假设——",[35,37881,37882],{},"SUTVA","（个体的结果不受他人处理状态的影响，且处理版本唯一）与",[35,37885,37886],{},"重叠性",[128,37888,37890,37926],{"className":37889,"translate":218},[217],[128,37891,37893],{"className":37892},[222],[224,37894,37895],{"xmlns":226},[228,37896,37897,37923],{},[231,37898,37899,37901,37903,37905,37907,37909,37911,37913,37915,37917,37919,37921],{},[3152,37900,4187],{},[1793,37902,23497],{},[1790,37904,1844],{},[1793,37906,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,37908,364],{},[1793,37910,2344],{},[3152,37912,3154],{},[1793,37914,1916],{},[1790,37916,5521],{},[1793,37918,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,37920,23497],{},[3152,37922,3154],{},[238,37924,37925],{"encoding":240},"0 \u003C P(X=1\\mid W) \u003C 1",[128,37927,37929,37947,37971,37989,38010],{"className":37928,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,37930,37932,37935,37938,37941,37944],{"className":37931},[250],[128,37933],{"className":37934,"style":23512},[254],[128,37936,4187],{"className":37937},[259],[128,37939],{"className":37940,"style":1945},[269],[128,37942,23497],{"className":37943},[1949],[128,37945],{"className":37946,"style":1945},[269],[128,37948,37950,37953,37956,37959,37962,37965,37968],{"className":37949},[250],[128,37951],{"className":37952,"style":1870},[254],[128,37954,1844],{"className":37955,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,37957,1848],{"className":37958},[1878],[128,37960,364],{"className":37961,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,37963],{"className":37964,"style":1945},[269],[128,37966,2344],{"className":37967},[1949],[128,37969],{"className":37970,"style":1945},[269],[128,37972,37974,37977,37980,37983,37986],{"className":37973},[250],[128,37975],{"className":37976,"style":1870},[254],[128,37978,3154],{"className":37979},[259],[128,37981],{"className":37982,"style":1945},[269],[128,37984,1916],{"className":37985},[1949],[128,37987],{"className":37988,"style":1945},[269],[128,37990,37992,37995,37998,38001,38004,38007],{"className":37991},[250],[128,37993],{"className":37994,"style":1870},[254],[128,37996,5521],{"className":37997,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,37999,1857],{"className":38000},[1894],[128,38002],{"className":38003,"style":1945},[269],[128,38005,23497],{"className":38006},[1949],[128,38008],{"className":38009,"style":1945},[269],[128,38011,38013,38016],{"className":38012},[250],[128,38014],{"className":38015,"style":4875},[254],[128,38017,3154],{"className":38018},[259],"）。前者在存在干扰或溢出效应（如疫苗接种、社交网络中的实验）时会被违反，而这类情形在图上需要特殊的结构才能建模。这是两个框架互补而非竞争的一个典型例子。",[3038,38021,38023],{"id":38022},"_42-传统结构方程模型同一名称下的另一条传统","4.2 传统结构方程模型：同一名称下的另一条传统",[11,38025,38026],{},"「结构方程模型」这一术语在统计学、心理测量学与社会科学中已有数十年的历史，其含义与本文所述并不相同。为避免混淆，此处有必要作一辨析。",[11,38028,38029,38030,38033,38034,38037,38038,38041,38042,38104],{},"经典意义上的 SEM 由两部分组成：",[35,38031,38032],{},"测量模型","（潜变量与观测指标之间的因子结构，即验证性因子分析）与",[35,38035,38036],{},"结构模型","（潜变量之间的路径系数）。它以观测变量的",[35,38039,38040],{},"协方差矩阵","为拟合对象，通过极大似然等方法估计参数，并以 ",[128,38043,38045,38065],{"className":38044,"translate":218},[217],[128,38046,38048],{"className":38047},[222],[224,38049,38050],{"xmlns":226},[228,38051,38052,38062],{},[231,38053,38054],{},[2614,38055,38056,38059],{},[1790,38057,38058],{},"χ",[3152,38060,38061],{},"2",[238,38063,38064],{"encoding":240},"\\chi^2",[128,38066,38068],{"className":38067,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38069,38071,38075],{"className":38070},[250],[128,38072],{"className":38073,"style":38074},[254],"height:1.0085em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[128,38076,38078,38081],{"className":38077},[259],[128,38079,38058],{"className":38080},[259,1815],[128,38082,38084],{"className":38083},[2660],[128,38085,38087],{"className":38086},[274],[128,38088,38090],{"className":38089},[278],[128,38091,38093],{"className":38092,"style":18138},[282],[128,38094,38095,38098],{"style":2732},[128,38096],{"className":38097,"style":291},[290],[128,38099,38101],{"className":38100},[299,300,301,298],[128,38102,38061],{"className":38103},[259,298],"、CFI、RMSEA 等指标评价模型与数据的整体拟合优度，典型应用是心理量表与社会科学的潜变量建模。",[11,38106,38107],{},"与本文的因果结构模型相比，二者的差别可以归纳为三点：",[9643,38109,38110,38120,38130],{},[2252,38111,38112,38115,38116,38119],{},[35,38113,38114],{},"边的语义不同","。经典 SEM 的路径图本质上是对协方差结构分解的图解，方向由理论约定，模型检验关心的是「这个协方差模式能否被这个路径图解释」；而本文的 SCM 把每条边当作「直接原因」这一",[35,38117,38118],{},"不可从数据验证的结构性假设","（见 1.1 节），并强调它必须来自数据之外。",[2252,38121,38122,38125,38126,38129],{},[35,38123,38124],{},"是否具备 do-算子","。经典 SEM 没有干预的语义，其路径系数",[35,38127,38128],{},"不能被直接解释为干预效应","，只有在额外假设（通常等同于后门准则）下，这些参数才恰好与因果效应一致。这也正是同一份协方差矩阵可以同时被多个方向不同的路径图拟合的原因。",[2252,38131,38132,38135,38136,38164,38165,38193],{},[35,38133,38134],{},"反事实的可识别性来自假设而非数据","。经典 SEM 通常假设线性、可加且噪声服从高斯分布，而正如 3.3 节所指出的，在这一特殊设定下 ",[128,38137,38139,38152],{"className":38138,"translate":218},[217],[128,38140,38142],{"className":38141},[222],[224,38143,38144],{"xmlns":226},[228,38145,38146,38150],{},[231,38147,38148],{},[1790,38149,4184],{},[238,38151,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,38153,38155],{"className":38154,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38156,38158,38161],{"className":38157},[250],[128,38159],{"className":38160,"style":283},[254],[128,38162,4184],{"className":38163,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 可由 ",[128,38166,38168,38181],{"className":38167,"translate":218},[217],[128,38169,38171],{"className":38170},[222],[224,38172,38173],{"xmlns":226},[228,38174,38175,38179],{},[231,38176,38177],{},[1790,38178,3071],{},[238,38180,3071],{"encoding":240},[128,38182,38184],{"className":38183,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38185,38187,38190],{"className":38186},[250],[128,38188],{"className":38189,"style":283},[254],[128,38191,3071],{"className":38192,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 唯一反解，反事实量因此「自动可识别」。这既是它能够讨论个体效应的原因，也是它最脆弱的地方：结论的强度完全由函数形式的假设承担。",[11,38195,38196],{},"一句话概括：经典 SEM 关心的是「协方差结构能否被一个路径图解释」，而结构因果模型关心的是「若外部改变某个变量，其余变量将如何变化」。",[3038,38198,38200],{"id":38199},"_43-随机对照试验的因果语义","4.3 随机对照试验的因果语义",[11,38202,38203],{},"本文的形式化工具同时给出了随机对照试验（RCT）为何享有「黄金标准」地位的一个精确解释。",[11,38205,38206,38207,38235,38236,38264,38265,38268,38269,38323,38324,38466,38467,38470,38471,38474,38475,38503],{},"在因果图中，随机分配意味着 ",[128,38208,38210,38223],{"className":38209,"translate":218},[217],[128,38211,38213],{"className":38212},[222],[224,38214,38215],{"xmlns":226},[228,38216,38217,38221],{},[231,38218,38219],{},[1790,38220,364],{},[238,38222,364],{"encoding":240},[128,38224,38226],{"className":38225,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38227,38229,38232],{"className":38228},[250],[128,38230],{"className":38231,"style":283},[254],[128,38233,364],{"className":38234,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的取值由模型之外的机制（随机数生成器）决定，因此 ",[128,38237,38239,38252],{"className":38238,"translate":218},[217],[128,38240,38242],{"className":38241},[222],[224,38243,38244],{"xmlns":226},[228,38245,38246,38250],{},[231,38247,38248],{},[1790,38249,364],{},[238,38251,364],{"encoding":240},[128,38253,38255],{"className":38254,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38256,38258,38261],{"className":38257},[250],[128,38259],{"className":38260,"style":283},[254],[128,38262,364],{"className":38263,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 在图中",[35,38266,38267],{},"没有任何父节点","，也就不存在任何后门路径。由后门准则（取 ",[128,38270,38272,38291],{"className":38271,"translate":218},[217],[128,38273,38275],{"className":38274},[222],[224,38276,38277],{"xmlns":226},[228,38278,38279,38288],{},[231,38280,38281,38283,38285],{},[1790,38282,5505],{},[1793,38284,2344],{},[1790,38286,38287],{"mathvariant":2620},"∅",[238,38289,38290],{"encoding":240},"S = \\varnothing",[128,38292,38294,38312],{"className":38293,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38295,38297,38300,38303,38306,38309],{"className":38296},[250],[128,38298],{"className":38299,"style":283},[254],[128,38301,5505],{"className":38302,"style":3123},[259,1815],[128,38304],{"className":38305,"style":1945},[269],[128,38307,2344],{"className":38308},[1949],[128,38310],{"className":38311,"style":1945},[269],[128,38313,38315,38319],{"className":38314},[250],[128,38316],{"className":38317,"style":38318},[254],"height:0.6633em;vertical-align:-0.0817em;",[128,38320,38287],{"className":38321},[259,38322],"amsrm","）立即得到\n",[128,38325,38327,38373],{"className":38326,"translate":218},[217],[128,38328,38330],{"className":38329},[222],[224,38331,38332],{"xmlns":226},[228,38333,38334,38370],{},[231,38335,38336,38338,38340,38342,38344,38346,38348,38350,38352,38354,38356,38358,38360,38362,38364,38366,38368],{},[1790,38337,1844],{},[1793,38339,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,38341,2276],{},[1793,38343,1916],{},[1790,38345,2438],{},[1790,38347,2441],{},[1793,38349,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,38351,2281],{},[1793,38353,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,38355,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[1793,38357,2344],{},[1790,38359,1844],{},[1793,38361,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,38363,2276],{},[1793,38365,1916],{},[1790,38367,2281],{},[1793,38369,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,38371,38372],{"encoding":240},"P(y \\mid do(x)) = P(y \\mid x)",[128,38374,38376,38400,38430,38454],{"className":38375,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38377,38379,38382,38385,38388,38391,38394,38397],{"className":38378},[250],[128,38380],{"className":38381,"style":1870},[254],[128,38383,1844],{"className":38384,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,38386,1848],{"className":38387},[1878],[128,38389,2276],{"className":38390,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,38392],{"className":38393,"style":1945},[269],[128,38395,1916],{"className":38396},[1949],[128,38398],{"className":38399,"style":1945},[269],[128,38401,38403,38406,38409,38412,38415,38418,38421,38424,38427],{"className":38402},[250],[128,38404],{"className":38405,"style":1870},[254],[128,38407,2438],{"className":38408},[259,1815],[128,38410,2441],{"className":38411},[259,1815],[128,38413,1848],{"className":38414},[1878],[128,38416,2281],{"className":38417},[259,1815],[128,38419,2501],{"className":38420},[1894],[128,38422],{"className":38423,"style":1945},[269],[128,38425,2344],{"className":38426},[1949],[128,38428],{"className":38429,"style":1945},[269],[128,38431,38433,38436,38439,38442,38445,38448,38451],{"className":38432},[250],[128,38434],{"className":38435,"style":1870},[254],[128,38437,1844],{"className":38438,"style":1874},[259,1815],[128,38440,1848],{"className":38441},[1878],[128,38443,2276],{"className":38444,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,38446],{"className":38447,"style":1945},[269],[128,38449,1916],{"className":38450},[1949],[128,38452],{"className":38453,"style":1945},[269],[128,38455,38457,38460,38463],{"className":38456},[250],[128,38458],{"className":38459,"style":1870},[254],[128,38461,2281],{"className":38462},[259,1815],[128,38464,1857],{"className":38465},[1894],"\n即",[35,38468,38469],{},"干预分布与条件分布重合，观测数据可以直接回答第二层的问题","。用一句话说：",[35,38472,38473],{},"随机化就是人造的 do-算子","——它在物理上执行了定义 3.2 中「删去 ",[128,38476,38478,38491],{"className":38477,"translate":218},[217],[128,38479,38481],{"className":38480},[222],[224,38482,38483],{"xmlns":226},[228,38484,38485,38489],{},[231,38486,38487],{},[1790,38488,364],{},[238,38490,364],{"encoding":240},[128,38492,38494],{"className":38493,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38495,38497,38500],{"className":38496},[250],[128,38498],{"className":38499,"style":283},[254],[128,38501,364],{"className":38502,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 全部入边」这一手术。",[11,38505,38506],{},"这一视角同时划出了 RCT 的边界：",[9643,38508,38509,38515,38522,38558],{},[2252,38510,38511,38512,38514],{},"它回答的是第二层问题，",[35,38513,26312],{},"回答个体反事实（见 3.3 节的可识别性边界）；",[2252,38516,38517,38518,38521],{},"它识别的是",[35,38519,38520],{},"实际实施的处理版本","，若存在不依从（non-compliance），随机化在图上即被违反，需要借助工具变量等额外结构才能恢复效应估计；",[2252,38523,38524,38525,38528,38529,38557],{},"随机化只保证",[35,38526,38527],{},"组间可比","，若存在干扰或溢出效应（SUTVA 违反），",[128,38530,38532,38545],{"className":38531,"translate":218},[217],[128,38533,38535],{"className":38534},[222],[224,38536,38537],{"xmlns":226},[228,38538,38539,38543],{},[231,38540,38541],{},[1790,38542,364],{},[238,38544,364],{"encoding":240},[128,38546,38548],{"className":38547,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38549,38551,38554],{"className":38550},[250],[128,38552],{"className":38553,"style":283},[254],[128,38555,364],{"className":38556,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 与结果之间仍可能经由个体之间的相互影响产生关联；",[2252,38559,38560,38561,38564],{},"它保证的是",[35,38562,38563],{},"内部有效性","，外部有效性并不会自动成立——这引出下一小节。",[3038,38566,38568],{"id":38567},"_44-可迁移性与外部有效性","4.4 可迁移性与外部有效性",[11,38570,38571],{},"一个在实践中反复出现的问题是：在某一人群（或地区、时间）中估计出的因果效应，能否搬到另一个人群中去？纯统计框架对这一问题通常只能给出「谨慎泛化」这样的告诫，而因果图可以提供更精确的回答。",[11,38573,38574,38575,893],{},"Pearl 与 Bareinboim 提出的",[35,38576,38577,38578,38672,38673,38708],{},"可迁移性（transportability）",[35,38579,38580,38581,38611,38612,38671],{},"理论把这类问题形式化如下：设源总体为 ",[128,38582,38584,38599],{"className":38583,"translate":218},[217],[128,38585,38587],{"className":38586},[222],[224,38588,38589],{"xmlns":226},[228,38590,38591,38596],{},[231,38592,38593],{},[1790,38594,38595],{},"π",[238,38597,38598],{"encoding":240},"\\pi",[128,38600,38602],{"className":38601,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38603,38605,38608],{"className":38604},[250],[128,38606],{"className":38607,"style":2377},[254],[128,38609,38595],{"className":38610,"style":2305},[259,1815],"、目标总体为 ",[128,38613,38615,38633],{"className":38614,"translate":218},[217],[128,38616,38618],{"className":38617},[222],[224,38619,38620],{"xmlns":226},[228,38621,38622,38630],{},[231,38623,38624],{},[2614,38625,38626,38628],{},[1790,38627,38595],{},[1793,38629,28124],{},[238,38631,38632],{"encoding":240},"\\pi^*",[128,38634,38636],{"className":38635,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38637,38639,38642],{"className":38638},[250],[128,38640],{"className":38641,"style":28369},[254],[128,38643,38645,38648],{"className":38644},[259],[128,38646,38595],{"className":38647,"style":2305},[259,1815],[128,38649,38651],{"className":38650},[2660],[128,38652,38654],{"className":38653},[274],[128,38655,38657],{"className":38656},[278],[128,38658,38660],{"className":38659,"style":28369},[282],[128,38661,38662,38665],{"style":2732},[128,38663],{"className":38664,"style":291},[290],[128,38666,38668],{"className":38667},[299,300,301,298],[128,38669,28124],{"className":38670},[3375,298],"，在","选择图（selection diagram）",[35,38674,38675,38676,38707],{},"中用方框记号 ",[128,38677,38679,38694],{"className":38678,"translate":218},[217],[128,38680,38682],{"className":38681},[222],[224,38683,38684],{"xmlns":226},[228,38685,38686,38691],{},[231,38687,38688],{},[1790,38689,38690],{"mathvariant":2620},"□",[238,38692,38693],{"encoding":240},"\\square",[128,38695,38697],{"className":38696,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38698,38700,38704],{"className":38699},[250],[128,38701],{"className":38702,"style":38703},[254],"height:0.675em;",[128,38705,38690],{"className":38706},[259,38322]," 标出两个总体之间机制存在差异的节点。有了这一标注，就可以像 do-演算那样通过图上的判定，确定哪些机制可以在两个总体之间共享（因而可以搬运）、哪些必须在目标总体中重新估计，并给出相应的","传输公式（transport formula）",[11,38710,38711,38712,38715],{},"这一工具的意义在于：",[35,38713,38714],{},"外部有效性被从一句笼统的方法论警告，转化为一个在图上可判定的问题。"," 例如，某药物在临床试验人群中的效应能否外推到儿童，取决于两个人群之间的差异所触及的机制是否落在从用药到疗效的因果路径上——若差异只影响与结果无关的变量，效应可以直接搬运；若差异恰好作用于效应的关键中介或调节变量，则必须重新估计。这可以视为 SCM 相对于纯统计框架的一个独有优势。",[3038,38717,38719],{"id":38718},"_45-假设边界与开放问题","4.5 假设边界与开放问题",[11,38721,38722],{},"本文的体系并非无条件成立。把全部预设集中列出，既是诚实，也是使用时的核对清单：",[9643,38724,38725,38821,38939,39025,39096,39102],{},[2252,38726,38727,38730,38731,38734,38735,38738,38739,38820],{},[35,38728,38729],{},"无环性","。DAG 假设排除了反馈回路与均衡，但现实中的经济系统（供给与需求互相决定）、生态系统与控制系统本质上是",[35,38732,38733],{},"有环","的。一种自然的放松方向是",[35,38736,38737],{},"有环结构方程模型","：允许 ",[128,38740,38742,38772],{"className":38741,"translate":218},[217],[128,38743,38745],{"className":38744},[222],[224,38746,38747],{"xmlns":226},[228,38748,38749,38769],{},[231,38750,38751,38753,38755,38757,38759,38761,38763,38765,38767],{},[1790,38752,3071],{},[1793,38754,10582],{},[1793,38756,2344],{},[1790,38758,7444],{},[1793,38760,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,38762,3071],{},[1793,38764,1795],{"separator":246},[1790,38766,4184],{},[1793,38768,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,38770,38771],{"encoding":240},"V := f(V, U)",[128,38773,38775,38793],{"className":38774,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38776,38778,38781,38784,38787,38790],{"className":38777},[250],[128,38779],{"className":38780,"style":283},[254],[128,38782,3071],{"className":38783,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,38785],{"className":38786,"style":1945},[269],[128,38788,10618],{"className":38789},[1949],[128,38791],{"className":38792,"style":1945},[269],[128,38794,38796,38799,38802,38805,38808,38811,38814,38817],{"className":38795},[250],[128,38797],{"className":38798,"style":1870},[254],[128,38800,7444],{"className":38801,"style":7492},[259,1815],[128,38803,1848],{"className":38804},[1878],[128,38806,3071],{"className":38807,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,38809,1795],{"className":38810},[1820],[128,38812],{"className":38813,"style":1824},[269],[128,38815,4184],{"className":38816,"style":4296},[259,1815],[128,38818,1857],{"className":38819},[1894],"，并以该系统的不动点作为均衡解来定义干预与反事实，此时「因果」的语义变为「均衡状态的移动」。时间序列情形下的动态贝叶斯网络（沿时间维展开后重新成为 DAG）是另一条常见路线。",[2252,38822,38823,38826,38827,38855,38856,38884,38885,38888,38889,38938],{},[35,38824,38825],{},"Granger 因果不等于干预因果","。计量经济学中的 Granger 因果检验，其定义是「利用 ",[128,38828,38830,38843],{"className":38829,"translate":218},[217],[128,38831,38833],{"className":38832},[222],[224,38834,38835],{"xmlns":226},[228,38836,38837,38841],{},[231,38838,38839],{},[1790,38840,364],{},[238,38842,364],{"encoding":240},[128,38844,38846],{"className":38845,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38847,38849,38852],{"className":38848},[250],[128,38850],{"className":38851,"style":283},[254],[128,38853,364],{"className":38854,"style":1816},[259,1815]," 的历史能否改善对 ",[128,38857,38859,38872],{"className":38858,"translate":218},[217],[128,38860,38862],{"className":38861},[222],[224,38863,38864],{"xmlns":226},[228,38865,38866,38870],{},[231,38867,38868],{},[1790,38869,1798],{},[238,38871,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,38873,38875],{"className":38874,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38876,38878,38881],{"className":38877},[250],[128,38879],{"className":38880,"style":283},[254],[128,38882,1798],{"className":38883,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 的预测」，这是一个纯粹的",[35,38886,38887],{},"可预测性","概念，与「在 ",[128,38890,38892,38914],{"className":38891,"translate":218},[217],[128,38893,38895],{"className":38894},[222],[224,38896,38897],{"xmlns":226},[228,38898,38899,38911],{},[231,38900,38901,38903,38905,38907,38909],{},[1790,38902,2438],{},[1790,38904,2441],{},[1793,38906,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,38908,364],{},[1793,38910,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,38912,38913],{"encoding":240},"do(X)",[128,38915,38917],{"className":38916,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38918,38920,38923,38926,38929,38932,38935],{"className":38919},[250],[128,38921],{"className":38922,"style":1870},[254],[128,38924,2438],{"className":38925},[259,1815],[128,38927,2441],{"className":38928},[259,1815],[128,38930,1848],{"className":38931},[1878],[128,38933,364],{"className":38934,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,38936,1857],{"className":38937},[1894]," 下保持不变」的机制性因果概念分属两个不同的层级。在存在共同驱动因素（尤其是同时驱动二者但滞后不同的因素）时，Granger 因果会给出与干预无关的结论。把二者等同，是应用中最常见的概念混淆之一。",[2252,38940,38941,38944,38945,39024],{},[35,38942,38943],{},"忠实性不可检验","。1.3 节的「当且仅当」版本依赖忠实性假设，即分布中不存在的独立性都不是参数偶然相消的产物。然而参数相消（例如路径系数恰好满足 ",[128,38946,38948,38974],{"className":38947,"translate":218},[217],[128,38949,38951],{"className":38950},[222],[224,38952,38953],{"xmlns":226},[228,38954,38955,38971],{},[231,38956,38957,38959,38962,38964,38967,38969],{},[1790,38958,21],{},[1790,38960,38961],{},"b",[1793,38963,4620],{},[1790,38965,38966],{},"c",[1793,38968,2344],{},[3152,38970,4187],{},[238,38972,38973],{"encoding":240},"ab + c = 0",[128,38975,38977,38997,39015],{"className":38976,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,38978,38980,38984,38988,38991,38994],{"className":38979},[250],[128,38981],{"className":38982,"style":38983},[254],"height:0.7778em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[128,38985,38987],{"className":38986},[259,1815],"ab",[128,38989],{"className":38990,"style":1828},[269],[128,38992,4620],{"className":38993},[3375],[128,38995],{"className":38996,"style":1828},[269],[128,38998,39000,39003,39006,39009,39012],{"className":38999},[250],[128,39001],{"className":39002,"style":2377},[254],[128,39004,38966],{"className":39005},[259,1815],[128,39007],{"className":39008,"style":1945},[269],[128,39010,2344],{"className":39011},[1949],[128,39013],{"className":39014,"style":1945},[269],[128,39016,39018,39021],{"className":39017},[250],[128,39019],{"className":39020,"style":4875},[254],[128,39022,4187],{"className":39023},[259],"）在数学上完全合法，且在某些自然的参数化下（如线性高斯模型的某些先验）几乎必然发生。忠实性无法从数据中检验，只能被接受或拒绝。",[2252,39026,39027,39030,39031,39034,39035,2173,39063,39091,39092,39095],{},[35,39028,39029],{},"马尔可夫型假设与不可识别性","。本文默认不存在未观测的混杂（2.1 节）。3.5 节的前门准则可以在",[35,39032,39033],{},"特定的中介结构","下绕过这一限制，但它远非一般性的解决方案。对一般的半马尔可夫型 SCM，存在根本不可识别的结构（例如 ",[128,39036,39038,39051],{"className":39037,"translate":218},[217],[128,39039,39041],{"className":39040},[222],[224,39042,39043],{"xmlns":226},[228,39044,39045,39049],{},[231,39046,39047],{},[1790,39048,364],{},[238,39050,364],{"encoding":240},[128,39052,39054],{"className":39053,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39055,39057,39060],{"className":39056},[250],[128,39058],{"className":39059,"style":283},[254],[128,39061,364],{"className":39062,"style":1816},[259,1815],[128,39064,39066,39079],{"className":39065,"translate":218},[217],[128,39067,39069],{"className":39068},[222],[224,39070,39071],{"xmlns":226},[228,39072,39073,39077],{},[231,39074,39075],{},[1790,39076,1798],{},[238,39078,1798],{"encoding":240},[128,39080,39082],{"className":39081,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39083,39085,39088],{"className":39084},[250],[128,39086],{"className":39087,"style":283},[254],[128,39089,1798],{"className":39090,"style":1828},[259,1815]," 之间存在未观测混杂、且不存在满足前门条件的中介），此时唯一的出路是用",[35,39093,39094],{},"部分识别","方法给出效应的上下界，而非一个点估计。",[2252,39097,39098,39101],{},[35,39099,39100],{},"选择与缺失","。d-分离的判据默认全部相关变量均已被观测，而样本选择本身就是在某些节点上做条件化——例 1.4 的伯克森悖论正是选择偏差的图论根源。同理，缺失数据的机制（MCAR \u002F MAR \u002F MNAR）在因果图中对应何种结构、会对可识别性造成何种影响，是一条自然而且实用的延伸方向。",[2252,39103,39104,39107,39108,39111],{},[35,39105,39106],{},"因果发现的可扩展性","。1.4 节所述的算法在假设成立、样本充分时具有理论保证，但在有限样本下，条件独立检验的误差会逐层累积，输出的图往往并不稳定；同时这些算法对忠实性、无隐变量、函数类等假设相当敏感，其输出应当被当作",[35,39109,39110],{},"待检验的假设候选","，而不是结论。",[11,39113,39114,39115],{},"以上限制并未削弱这套理论的价值，反而界定了它的使用条件：",[35,39116,39117],{},"因果推断的可靠程度，等于你愿意且能够承担的假设的强度。",[51,39119,39120],{"id":39120},"其他结语",[11,39122,39123],{},"回顾全文，因果图、结构因果模型、结构方程三者并非彼此独立的工具，而是同一理论体系在不同抽象层级上的展开：",[2249,39125,39126,39138,39204],{},[2252,39127,39128,9480,39130,39133,39134,39137],{},[35,39129,3036],{},[35,39131,39132],{},"定性层面","编码「谁影响谁」。它给出 d-分离这一可在图上机械判定的独立性判据，从而把「该控制哪些变量」从一个凭经验判断的问题，转化为一个组合问题；而它最主要的信息量，恰恰集中在那些",[35,39135,39136],{},"没有被画出来的边","上。",[2252,39139,39140,9480,39142,39145,39146,39174,39175,39203],{},[35,39141,11154],{},[35,39143,39144],{},"生成层面","把图提升为一个可以生成数据的机制。它通过外生变量 ",[128,39147,39149,39162],{"className":39148,"translate":218},[217],[128,39150,39152],{"className":39151},[222],[224,39153,39154],{"xmlns":226},[228,39155,39156,39160],{},[231,39157,39158],{},[1790,39159,4184],{},[238,39161,4184],{"encoding":240},[128,39163,39165],{"className":39164,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39166,39168,39171],{"className":39167},[250],[128,39169],{"className":39170,"style":283},[254],[128,39172,4184],{"className":39173,"style":4296},[259,1815]," 与结构方程 ",[128,39176,39178,39191],{"className":39177,"translate":218},[217],[128,39179,39181],{"className":39180},[222],[224,39182,39183],{"xmlns":226},[228,39184,39185,39189],{},[231,39186,39187],{},[1790,39188,11203],{},[238,39190,11203],{"encoding":240},[128,39192,39194],{"className":39193,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39195,39197,39200],{"className":39196},[250],[128,39198],{"className":39199,"style":283},[254],[128,39201,11203],{"className":39202,"style":1874},[259,1815]," 明确了「观测分布」与「干预分布」的区别，使第二层的问题第一次拥有了明确的数学对象。",[2252,39205,39206,9480,39209,39212,39213,39243,39244,39348,39349,39434],{},[35,39207,39208],{},"结构方程",[35,39210,39211],{},"操作层面","给出这套机制的可改写形式。非对称的 ",[128,39214,39216,39231],{"className":39215,"translate":218},[217],[128,39217,39219],{"className":39218},[222],[224,39220,39221],{"xmlns":226},[228,39222,39223,39229],{},[231,39224,39225,39227],{},[1793,39226,10582],{},[1793,39228,2344],{},[238,39230,10618],{"encoding":240},[128,39232,39234],{"className":39233,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39235,39237,39240],{"className":39236},[250],[128,39238],{"className":39239,"style":2377},[254],[128,39241,10618],{"className":39242},[1949]," 使得 do-算子可以理解为一次对机制的手术式局部替换（",[128,39245,39247,39268],{"className":39246,"translate":218},[217],[128,39248,39250],{"className":39249},[222],[224,39251,39252],{"xmlns":226},[228,39253,39254,39266],{},[231,39255,39256],{},[2605,39257,39258,39260],{},[1790,39259,3064],{},[20357,39261,39262,39264],{"accent":246},[1790,39263,364],{},[1793,39265,20363],{"stretchy":246},[238,39267,20366],{"encoding":240},[128,39269,39271],{"className":39270,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39272,39274,39277],{"className":39273},[250],[128,39275],{"className":39276,"style":20376},[254],[128,39278,39280,39283],{"className":39279},[259],[128,39281,3064],{"className":39282},[259,1815],[128,39284,39286],{"className":39285},[2660],[128,39287,39289,39340],{"className":39288},[274,321],[128,39290,39292,39337],{"className":39291},[278],[128,39293,39295],{"className":39294,"style":20395},[282],[128,39296,39297,39300],{"style":20398},[128,39298],{"className":39299,"style":335},[290],[128,39301,39303],{"className":39302},[299,300,301,298],[128,39304,39306],{"className":39305},[259,298],[128,39307,39309],{"className":39308},[259,20411,298],[128,39310,39312],{"className":39311},[274],[128,39313,39315],{"className":39314},[278],[128,39316,39318,39329],{"className":39317,"style":20421},[282],[128,39319,39320,39323],{"style":20424},[128,39321],{"className":39322,"style":335},[290],[128,39324,39326],{"className":39325},[259,298],[128,39327,364],{"className":39328,"style":1816},[259,1815,298],[128,39330,39331,39334],{"style":20436},[128,39332],{"className":39333,"style":335},[290],[128,39335],{"className":39336,"style":20444},[20443,298],[128,39338,347],{"className":39339},[346],[128,39341,39343],{"className":39342},[278],[128,39344,39346],{"className":39345,"style":20454},[282],[128,39347],{},"），并经潜在结果 ",[128,39350,39352,39376],{"className":39351,"translate":218},[217],[128,39353,39355],{"className":39354},[222],[224,39356,39357],{"xmlns":226},[228,39358,39359,39373],{},[231,39360,39361,39367,39369,39371],{},[2605,39362,39363,39365],{},[1790,39364,1798],{},[1790,39366,2281],{},[1793,39368,1848],{"stretchy":1847},[1790,39370,15496],{},[1793,39372,1857],{"stretchy":1847},[238,39374,39375],{"encoding":240},"Y_x(u)",[128,39377,39379],{"className":39378,"ariaHidden":246},[245],[128,39380,39382,39385,39425,39428,39431],{"className":39381},[250],[128,39383],{"className":39384,"style":1870},[254],[128,39386,39388,39391],{"className":39387},[259],[128,39389,1798],{"className":39390,"style":1828},[259,1815],[128,39392,39394],{"className":39393},[2660],[128,39395,39397,39417],{"className":39396},[274,321],[128,39398,39400,39414],{"className":39399},[278],[128,39401,39403],{"className":39402,"style":2670},[282],[128,39404,39405,39408],{"style":3226},[128,39406],{"className":39407,"style":291},[290],[128,39409,39411],{"className":39410},[299,300,301,298],[128,39412,2281],{"className":39413},[259,1815,298],[128,39415,347],{"className":39416},[346],[128,39418,39420],{"className":39419},[278],[128,39421,39423],{"className":39422,"style":2692},[282],[128,39424],{},[128,39426,1848],{"className":39427},[1878],[128,39429,15496],{"className":39430},[259,1815],[128,39432,1857],{"className":39433},[1894]," 通向第三层的反事实。",[11,39436,39437],{},"第四部分则表明，这一体系与潜在结果框架、传统结构方程模型之间并无高下之分，而是对同一批问题的不同表述：本文的框架以图换取「该控制什么」的可判定性，潜在结果框架以概率表述换取成熟的估计工具，而传统 SEM 关心的始终是协方差结构能否被一个路径图解释；至于随机化实验，其全部因果语义就是一次在物理上实施的 do-算子。",[11,39439,39440,39441,39444],{},"这一体系最深刻的洞见在于：",[35,39442,39443],{},"因果知识本质上是关于「世界如何生成数据」的知识，而非「数据本身呈现出何种模式」的知识","。正因如此，仅凭再大规模、再高维度的观测数据，也无法在没有结构性假设（即因果图）的前提下唯一确定因果效应——这既是因果推断这一领域存在的根本原因，也是它与纯粹的统计学习、机器学习范式在认识论上的分界线所在。",[11,39446,39447],{},"同时也应记住 4.5 节列出的代价：这套理论的可识别性结论，无一例外地建立在无环、忠实、无未观测混杂等假设之上，而其中若干假设本身并不能由数据检验。因此使用因果图时最值得追问的，往往不是「这张图算出了什么」，而是「这张图凭什么长成这样」，以及「若换一张同样合理的图，结论是否仍然成立」。",{"title":123,"searchDepth":137,"depth":137,"links":39449},[39450,39456,39461,39468,39475],{"id":3036,"depth":137,"text":3036,"children":39451},[39452,39453,39454,39455],{"id":3040,"depth":143,"text":3041},{"id":5912,"depth":143,"text":5913},{"id":8062,"depth":143,"text":8063},{"id":9637,"depth":143,"text":9638},{"id":11154,"depth":137,"text":11154,"children":39457},[39458,39459,39460],{"id":11164,"depth":143,"text":11165},{"id":13669,"depth":143,"text":13670},{"id":15350,"depth":143,"text":15351},{"id":17794,"depth":137,"text":17794,"children":39462},[39463,39464,39465,39466,39467],{"id":17845,"depth":143,"text":17846},{"id":18892,"depth":143,"text":18893},{"id":23716,"depth":143,"text":23717},{"id":27714,"depth":143,"text":27715},{"id":31426,"depth":143,"text":31427},{"id":36265,"depth":137,"text":36265,"children":39469},[39470,39471,39472,39473,39474],{"id":36271,"depth":143,"text":36272},{"id":38022,"depth":143,"text":38023},{"id":38199,"depth":143,"text":38200},{"id":38567,"depth":143,"text":38568},{"id":38718,"depth":143,"text":38719},{"id":39120,"depth":137,"text":39120},"为什么概率论不足以回答因果问题？设 X,YX, YX,Y 为两个随机变量，概率论所能给出的全部工具是联合分布 P(X,Y)P(X,Y)P(X,Y)、条件分布 P(Y∣X)P(Y\\mid X)P(Y∣X)，以及由此导出的独立性关系 X⊥ ⁣ ⁣ ⁣⊥YX \\perp\\!\\!\\!\\perp YX⊥⊥Y。这套语言在数学上是自洽的，但存在一个根本性的表达力缺陷：概率分布对「对称性」是不敏感的。若已知 P(X,Y)P(X,Y)P(X,Y)，则 P(Y∣X)P(Y\\mid X)P(Y∣X) 与 P(X∣Y)P(X\\mid Y)P(X∣Y) 皆可通过贝叶斯定理相互推出，二者在信息量上完全等价，谁也不比谁更「根本」。然而在实际世界中，「气压下降导致下雨」与「下雨导致气压下降」显然不是对称的两种表述——只有前者是对的。这种方向性、非对称性的知识，是概率分布本身无法编码的，必须由额外的结构承载。",{},{"title":24,"description":39476},"blog\u002F2026\u002F0005-yin-guo-jie-gou-mo-xing-jian-lun","为什么概率论不足以回答因果问题？本文以 Judea Pearl 的因果推断阶梯为线索，依次展开因果图、结构因果模型与结构方程这三层层层递进的形式化工具，进而讨论因果发现、中介分析、do-演算与前门准则，并对照潜在结果框架与传统结构方程模型，梳理这一体系成立所依赖的假设与适用边界。",[39482],"machine-learning","2026-09-20T23:05:13+08:00","9Ui90_cj3io7V35nrGJl0F-SOCQb6hzZNEryfszpPTM",{"left":39486,"top":39486,"width":39487,"height":39487,"rotate":39486,"vFlip":1756,"hFlip":1756,"body":39488},0,24,"\u003Cg fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\">\u003Cpath d=\"m4.748 7.645l-.331 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